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Elliottwavecorrection

BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Count -Wave 5 Alternative Count is Dead We are in Wave IV folks, it's not done yet. Here I will document the death of the imposter, the usurper, the Alternative Count has crashed and burned. Some have told a story, but the data exposed them as heretics, liars, fakes and frauds. They profess to offer wave counts, but they do not offer Elliott Wave Counts. For in Elliott Wave Counts, there are guidelines and rules, hard, immutable rules. One of those is that a wave 4, may not intrude upon or overlap into the space of a wave 1 of the same degree. Some have claimed that Wave IV ended back on July 16-17 at the 1830 level, and the sprint to 2938 marked the start of Wave V, a new bull market phase for Bitcoin. The run up to the top looked pretty compelling. It could be counted in a solid motive or impulse fashion. No overlaps or intrusions. The post high correction even counted pretty well. An A-B-C down to the 2400 level. This is where the false prophets of wave counts put a stake in the ground and declared correction, wave 2 was complete! Onward and upward!! And they got what the wanted, sort of. An upward wave started and completed at the 2825 level. The problem is it only included 3 upward waves, not 5, and then began a serious correction. The correction that would establish wave 4. A correction that proved fatal. In the count above, which contains 3 degrees of waves, the lowest is a plain digit, the second is a digit inside parenthesis, and the third degree uses lower case Roman numerals, i for 1, ii for 2, and iii for 3. After the correction to establish wave 4 had completed, a "double 3" that counted as A-B-C - X - A-B-C, it was possible to determine the level of wave 4. Only then, by examining the up move that preceded it, could a determination be made. Was wave 5 underway, and the Alternative Count valid? Like a forensic examiner, I carefully examined the up move, using very detailed 15 minute and even 5 minute charts. The best count I could come up with is above. I even tried to make it work by counting inside out. Make it a 5 wave move up, somehow. Nope. Push wave i downward. Nope, no luck. Wave 4 stuck its spear cleanly into the heart of the imposter, the usurper, the Fake Wave 5, by intruding into the only place wave 1 & wave 2 could reasonable be placed. I will soon return to update the Wave IV count. Long Live Wave IV, the rightful heir to the throne. One of the 3 scenarios I laid out is playing out. Can you guess which one?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RogueDave
13
BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - BTC Alt.CountsUgh, what a mess... While my preference is that BTC is still in macro-degree Wave IV following the 2980 high I label Wave III, I must at this point give serious consideration to an Alternate Count,(labeled here in Red ) that against reasonable Time Duration, and against the Alternation Guideline, that BTC completed Wave IV at the 1840 low. The move up to 2938 was a larger degree Wave 1, and is supported by smaller degree wave counts. Since the move up to 2938, BTC has been correcting that advance, and may have completed a near 50% retracement at the 2400 level. Since then, the move up has completed multiple sub-wave counts, down to minutia scales, terminating at a "iii" as I write this post. My current preferred count, is that BTC remains in Wave IV, a Flat pattern, which is in lesser degree wave 1 of 5 of C of IV. At a macro level, Flats occur and take a wave count 3-3-5. (3 waves to reach A, 3 waves to reach B, and 5 waves to terminate at C, all of which can be broken down and are composed of sub-waves in a fractal manner.) The Wave IV preference is guided by the Alternation Guideline and the Time Duration appropriate to this degree of correction represented by Wave IV. Under the theory of a continuing Wave IV, my current preferred count in in Blue . The emerging pattern for Wave 1 of 5 of C of IV, is an declining or falling, expanding triangle, with 4 of 5 legs completed. Alternate to this remains the impulse or motive push downward to retest the former lows at 1840.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RogueDave
BTCUSDT Wave (5) Structure POLONIEX:BTCUSDT The wave (5) structure looks complete with further 5 subdivisions however the upward channel still intact as I am writing. Breakdown of the channel will further confirm if Wave A had been started while breakdown above 2913 will negate this scenario. Another alternate is that wave (iv) is not complete and forming a triangle which will end up with an upward push to towards the recent highs. Key to watch the channel line and upward resistance at 2913.
Short
by DowBits
[EW COURSE] IMPULSIVE WAVES SETUPBEST PLACE FOR ENTRY AREA ============================ CR1 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2) and W(4) CR2 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2) and W(4) CR3 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(4) CR4 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2) and W(4) CR5 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2 ) and W(4) CR6 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2) and W(4) CR7 = (We don't trade it) CR4 = Research for BUY OPPORTUNITY on W(2 ) and W(4) FAIL IMPULSIVE WAVE: - W(3) OVERLAP W(1) - W(3) CLOSE BAR BELOW W(1) HIGH EW GLOSSARY =============== If you think this analysis can be useful, leave a your comment or your ILIKE! Thank you for support and trade with care!
Education
by TheAnonymousBanker
13
BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – Wave IV – How will it play out?In an earlier analysis, I posted 3 scenarios (shallow Barrier Triangle and Flat, and deeper Failing Wedge) that were possible based upon the Alternation Guideline that follows the principle that Wave II and Wave IV (or W2 and W4) alternate form. Since Wave II was a sharp and deep correction, correcting the initial run to 1143, all the way down to 157.50, Wave IV should be a more shallow correction. The worst case scenario is a deeper correction to 1144, to not overlap into Wave I territory. However, given Wave II was deep, Wave IV should be a shallow correction, probably not retracing more than 31.8% of the entire move from Wave II to Wave III. That would put the likely depth not more than the 1826 price level. Based upon more recent price action, a rising wedge is being traced out, which may result in Wave B of IV achieving sub-critical levels, if the pattern holds. Sadly, this point B of IV and the rising wedge result in a lower termination than the least shallow alternative, the Barrier Triangle, needs to play out. For a Barrier Triangle to form, a more rapid ascent to climb above Wave (A) of A of IV, above the 2800 level, is required. Similarly, for a Flat to form, a more rapid ascent to near the old high at 2980, needs to quickly initiate and break out of the rising wedge before normal termination (points (d) and (e)) and below the 2800 level. The Flat correction probability is falling quickly. All of this is pointing to the possibility of a Falling Wedge, or another variety of triangle to form, for the final leg of the correction, Wave of C of IV. www.elliottwave.net
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RogueDave
13
BTCUSD still showing market as bullishI know everyone is panicking, fear is present, blood bath on alts, ... But when I look at the charts, I see a few bullish signs: -sell wolume keeps going down, bears tired ? -RSI on the 6h, 12h, 1d & 3d oversold. -ABCDE elliot falling triangle wave correction in a rising market. If we clearly break the support, then I will be bearish but until then I will stay long on BTC. As always, it is one possible scenario, stay safe and happy trading! + Feedback appreciated :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by truffet
BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts and ForecastsBefore Wave V can commence, Wave IV must exert it's toll, the dreaded correction. How this correction will play out can take several forms. Since we are early into the TIME aspect of this correction, it is impossible to state how it will develop. As a reminder, the correction after Wave I, took the form of a Zig-Zag, and spanned approximately 1 year, Jan - Dec 2015. While not "Rules", Elliott Wave Analysis does set out "Guidelines" in additional to "Rules". In regard to Corrections, I have copied these guidelines and am including them here for your information (education) and convenience. The source is at: www.wavaholic.com - If wave 2 was a sharp correction, wave 4 will almost always be a sideways correction and vice versa (Alternation). - Wave 2 is usually a zigzag or zigzag combination. - Wave 4 is usually a flat, triangle or combination thereof. - Wave 4 usually ends within the price territory of the fourth wave of wave 3. -- (in this case, this may be ignored as wave 4 of 3 of W-III is below the crest of W-I, and W-IV may not, by rule, impose into W-I territory.) So, recapping, Wave I climaxed in December 2014 at US$1163. The Wave II correction was steep in price terms making a Zig-Zag pattern, and ended in Jan 2015 at the low price of $152.50 retracing in excess of 78.6% of the advance from low single digits. A little over 2.5 years later, W-III crested just short of $3000. The current correction low has only retraced a small 25%-ish of the advance thus far. The corrective retracement could extend to 61.8% of the advance from the W-II lows without impinging into W-I territory. But by guideline, since W-II was sharp, W-IV should be shallow as the alternation guideline suggests. Below, I will present 3 scenarios that I believe this correction is more likely to follow. The deeper corrections could only retrace 38.2% rather than the 50% as presented. The Time frame for Wave IV to play out may well extend considerably beyond the 3 month time frame captured within the charts. If we only correct for 3 months after a 2.5 year bull run, it would indeed be not only shallow, but short. Good luck trading, or be patient if you are a HODler, this too shall pass in the longer run. Wave III Correction: Barrier Triangle (Medium to High Probability) Wave III Correction: Flat (Medium to High Probability) Wave III Correction: Falling Wedge (Low Probability)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RogueDave
8