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Elliottwaveforecasts

Nifty hourly Elliott wave analysisThe move from 17348 is corrective. There is no way an elliottician calls it an impulse move going on. So, the move should be correct 100% to justify it as a corrective move. There are a few corrective moves that don't retrace fully, eg. the legs of a triangle. But this move seems like it should correct 100% soon. A good elliottician is not the one who always has counts, but the one who give counts when there is most and more probability and possibility.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by tradersmantra
Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
GOLD XAUUSD - Where now?Hi everyone, We saw the reaction off the completed WXY highlighted last week (linked idea below) play out perfectly and the larger three wave corrective structure now also looks complete above the 1860 level. My plan is to target the price inefficiency highlighted in the red boxes whilst monitoring how the forthcoming wave structure develops. Expecting initial resistance at the 1900 level. A bullish five wave structure will likely lead gold higher beyond 1960, completing the impulsive move which began in September 2022. Will update how that plays out accordingly. Trade safe. BeyondEdge
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BeyondEdge
2
Jubilant Food WorksHello and welcome to this analysis The stock has been in a decline since Sept 2021, all bounces have so far been sluggish as it continues to make a lower high lower low pattern. It was removed from Nifty Next 50 hence the recent exit pressure from Index based funds In the immediate short term due to a heavily oversold scenario a dead cat bounce appears to be in the making. This could either bounce back to 500-525 or form a triangle (higher probability) as long as it holds last week low. Overall chances of this being a bottom look slim unless it starts sustaining above 535. We might see value buying coming near 375-350.
NSE:JUBLFOODShort
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Evening Update: My Last Weekday PostToday was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. Now that we are not overlapping in 3-way moves it appears price is hitting standard fib areas for this c wave advance. Therefore I have no reason to believe we will not decline into the 4150-4160 area and make another high ( at the very least ) Remember we do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. Best to all, Important: Due to the update in my profile section I will no longer be posting my Morning, Evening, Special and Trade Alert posts. Please reference that for more information. I will be posting a Weekend Update.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Special Update: This is an UGLY rally, But I'm done FightingThere is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness. Let's recap my trading: 1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in premium. Today those calls appreciated to as high as $16.50 so my trade drawdown was a staggering 120%. Currently the price to buy back is $12.50 which would cost me $15,554.50 so almost double what I raised. Now, in truth, those options have NO intrinsic value. Their only value is those options have 27 days of life...but they're worthless below 4300. I made a hedge trade that profited $7350 so account wise I'm not in a bad situation at all. This strategy is my edge. I spend a lot of time analyzing charts but my trade strategy is encapsulated by planning on being wrong and profiting. Hopefully that makes sense. I hope to educate on this strategy as I think it's the only way to trade as a business. Lets recap my analysis: I believe I have misjudged this rally off the 3502 low. This has moved higher much faster than I anticipated and in the interim, (even though I knew price would come into the 4300-4500 area)...I didn't anticipate for it happen so fast. But I have given price every opportunity to retrace into the areas I have been anticipating 3850-3700 and that hasn't happened. Therefore I have look at this with fresh eyes and come up with a rational means of profiting from the price action. So let's discuss the details. 1. The upside officially is not confirmed until price breaches 4180 which hasn't happened. However, we're above ALL Fib retracement levels. Price is not screaming at us, but it's definitely raising it's voice it has intentions are go beyond the 4180 area. So, "Price, you have my attention". Sidebar: Back to my strategy of selling premium. I still have 160 points to fashion a hedge. I cannot stress enough that trading for profit is different from just trading. IT IS MY JOB TO PROTECT THAT POSITION. I will take action to either protect through hedging, or trading around that position, but I cannot stress enough, this strategy allows you to be wrong, and still profit. It is my central strategy. Some people are married to crypto, stocks, or indices. I'm married to profit. This strategy affords me the highest probability of profiting the vast majority of times. 2. Giving price the benefit of the doubt, I have to claim the 3788.50 bottom in mid December is our b wave bottom. If I get get proven wrong so be it...but risk management dictates for me to posture my trading that price is going to 4300-4500. I do not see it going there in February...but I'm going to be open minded. 3. Therefore based on our b wave being done we have key resistance areas at: (1) 4180 which is the prior high (2) 4207.50 .618 Extension of our a and b waves (3) 4309.25 is the .618% retracement level of the entire decline. Expect a reaction here. (4) 4321.25 .786 Extension of our a and b waves (5) 4327.50 The August 2022 highs (6) 4466.50 The 1.0 Fib Extension If we get over 4180, these are the price points that become essential to me to trade around. If we fail to get above 4180, then we can decline in a flat back down to 3788 area of higher, but that's the parameters as of now. Lets look at the micro count: Whether this is a c wave top (abc off of 3788 not to exceed 4180) or wave 1 of a larger c of b into the 4300-4500 area is yet to be seen. 4180 will answer that question for us. But I'll be watching for a retrace in a wave 2 to potentially put on a long mainly for hedging. I'll update in the morning but this is timely analysis and I wanted you to have it tonight once I finished it. With that I’m done for evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
29
SILVER Is Consolidating At The Major Resistance LineUSD has turned sharply lower and stocks turned up after FED interest rates decision yesterday when they hiked by 25bps as expected. A lot of these sharp moves were reversed today, after ECB press conference despite some hawkish tone. It appears that market already priced in this rate decision, and causes buy the rumour sell the news impact, in which market normally clears plenty of stops. Not only EURUSD pair, but another volatile move is also seen on metals today with gold and silver coming sharply off as USD INDEX finds a support. From a technical and psychological perspective I like this kind of a reversal on silver, down from a new high, as it makes price action a little more tricky for most of people, but sometimes easy to read when it comes to Elliott Wave patterns. We see silver in uptrend, no doubt, but as normally, market will tend to slow down at important levels or lines. I see price now consolidating at the 2021-2022 trendline. I see here ongoing but complex wave four. It can be a flat or possibly even a triangle if price stay above 22.80, but in both cases I think that silver is a buy-a-dip after this current leg down. The support zone for a turn up is at 22-23 area. If bulls will manage to defend that area then break out of a 2021-2022 channel can be very significant.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by ew-forecast
1
Morning Update: ADA Count UpdateADA has extended in it's wave 5 of primary 1. This over lapping grind higher appears to be an ending diagonal for completion of wave 1. If my count is correct our retrace should come into the area of origination which is .27. However, I prefer to wait to see how price behaves over the course of this upcoming weekend. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by maikisch
3
Morning Update: Solana still looking strong towards the upsideSolana has been consolidating since Saturday 1/21 high into $26.55. I have posted an alternative wave c of 2 FLAT. We appear to be moving impulsively on the smaller timeframes however, this is most likely part of the (c) of c subdivision. Obviously if we breach $26.55 we may be ready to take off. This is precisely why I said its risky to sell out of entire positions as wave 2's can be shallow or deep. However the more we consolidate in this area the higher the probability this retrace will be shallow by virtue of time. Things may be about to get very exciting in Solana...Once we breach $26.55 I'll be able to dial in our targets on the upside. Suffice to say, the next time we move above $26.55 we will get into the 30's pretty quickly and end up for our primary wave 3 in the 40's. Let's see what clues we get throughout the remainder of the week. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by maikisch
9
Morning Update: Looking at the Bullish PerspectiveIt's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt. I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target boxes are areas I expect price to enter for each remaining wave. I can only assume we're going to extend because as of right this structure only points to 4240-4268.50. So if we are going to extend, wave 3 is where we should start to see some of that occur. I am watching closely to see if price behaves by hitting ALL the ideal areas. Failure to do so may signal we're coming up short. First test is we should get one more poke higher to complete wave v of 3 into the 4177.50-4188 area. Our minor wave iv may not be done so a trip down to 4020-4040 should not be a surprise. Our MACD indicators are starting to show overbought levels...so a longer drawn wave iv makes sense. My purple count supposes we could top where I'm counting wave 3. We do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. If we top in purple it is quite possible this entire move up will only be the a wave of larger B. That would certainly solve the time duration issue I have had. Key is to observe if price remains impulsive or if cracks start to emerge signaling we will not be hitting the standard retracement area for our larger b-wave this go around. My goal is try to get my short position in a more delta neutral posture with a hedge of some sort. If I do anything to hedge, I'll update this post so if interested keep referring to this post to get the play by play. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
6
Evening Update & Trade Alert: Fed DayI will recap the Thought Experiment in another post...but what is most timely is 4132-4136 is an area I may add to ES shorts....but on a very tight lease. Stay Tuned for a later update. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
10
Morning Update (Early): Thought Experiment for Fed DayLet's do this early? Huh? I'll be able to sleep in tomorrow morning...yeah!!!!!!!!! First, Let’s revisit some things for new readers of my work. On occasion I will make a detailed, but educated, guess on the direction of the markets strictly based off the charts. Typically, these would be done on days of perceived high volatility due to some news or event that is occurring. These so called “thought experiments”, were originally posted to try to make the case that news or events do not move markets, they are mere catalysts to substantiate an already existing outcome contained in chart analysis. I started doing these because as I posted and shared my analysis I would typically be inundated with comments or direct messages asking how would the Fed, the release of CPI, GDP, etc. affect my current analysis. I simply got tired of saying, “It Doesn’t”. So in an attempt to communicate to my followers that I wasn’t just being arrogant in the protection of my analysis, I attempted to game the price action prior to the big event in what I termed a “Thought Experiment”. Today’s “TE” would be my sixth post front running big news with my thoughts on the ensuing price action. I think my followers would agree with me when I say I think I have proven my original point by now. Nonetheless, I have been asked to do another so here it is. Now I will tell you what most already know. This pattern off the October lows of 3502 and the subsequent December 22nd low of 3788 has frustrated me. My problem with the October low is the manner in which we bottomed. I cannot make out a clear 5 waves down into 3502 on the smaller timeframes. Some practitioners of Elliott Wave don’t mind looking past such issues. To me, these little clues should tell us something about the pattern we’re embarking on. Since the October low we have risen but in a very overlapping manner. I could say the same for the rise off the December 22nd low. I have been calling for a larger b-wave rally into the 4300-4500 area of the SPX futures but this pattern has not been clear to me that is ready to do that. I admit that. Our larger a-wave took 10 months to complete. We're going to head up and complete our larger b-wave in 3 months? Maybe...but I just have a hard time buying into that. So in a position where I am unclear about the overall pattern I have to go with what I think makes an already unclear pattern, clear. I could be totally wrong...but WTF. Here’s my Thought Experiment for Fed Day: 1. I believe we open up down tomorrow morning in the cash market. 2. we spend the vast majority of the day moving flat to up but nothing impulsive. (Range prior to fed announcement 4050 low end to We close the gap from the open) 3. Upon the fed announcement we spike up into the area of 4140 to 4154 conclude our ED pattern. 4. Post 2:30 Powell conference call...we begin to decline impulsively. Sidebar: If this does happen this would mark the second time we have come into this area and been rejected. I think if this does come into play it really sets us up for the red count. This becomes a reversion to mean trade in my opinion. Traders overshoot and undershoot all the time. They tend to live on the margins of extreme. Personally I hope we just decline to 3700's and be done with this so we can spend the vast majority of 2023 grinding higher. But the ED count is intact and I have to go with that pattern as of the writing of my morning update. Now I will conclude with THIS IS A GUESS AND I WOULDN'T TRADE THIS. I have to admit...these "TE"'s are exhausting because I have to spend a considerable amount of time looking at multiple charts (SPX, ES) on multiple timeframes....so even if this plays out perfectly....it doesn't mean I'm genius by any stretch of the imagination. Let's see how things shape up tomorrow and where we are in the aftermath of tomorrow . I think the clues will be invaluable. But I have to say #sub3788hurryupalready Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
14
Evening Update (Early): Have we already Topped?I guess that's the big question...Have we Topped, or does this rally continue? Although we end up in the same place, the green b-wave (is the black count) it just supposes we topped already and the ending diagonal will eventually become invalidated. I placed that b-wave there ONLY because we have a full pattern as of now. But not to get ahead of myself so far the ED is playing out nicely so a lot of potentials. Additionally, I broke the red count out of the closet. Although a low probability, it is a valid count. In this morning's update I stated..." In the 4008-4009 I may open a small long position. I’ll update if I do. " Very soon after I published my morning update I bought, Initially , as a hedge 3 ES contracts at 4008. I updated the morning update post as I moved stops higher and eventually sold all 3 at 4057 for $7,350 in profits on the day. Since my short calls generated just under $12,000 in profits... I didn't want to waste $7k protecting $12k. Therefore I'll restrike higher if I have to as it would seem I have almost 250 points of perceived safety. This puts me at approximately $19,000 in potential profits for February so far. I say potential because my short calls do not expire till end of February. Tomorrow we have Fed Day. As a reminder my followers have coaxed me into posting a Thought Experiment for Fed Day. Look for that in my morning update tomorrow. Thanks for having me stick my neck out... it's all in good fun. Sorry this post is early but I have plans this afternoon and won't be in a position to post this evening. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
5
Morning Update: ED on Shaky GroundThis morning the ES is declining just below the ideal spot to continue to support this ED pattern. Last night I advertently type 3990 for ED invalidation. Its 3980. 3980 represents the .884% retracement area and last fib retracement and a very uncommon area used by Elliottitions . This decline should ideally hold the .618% - .786% zone. Nonetheless, if for some reason price breaches 3980 today this ED count will be invalidated. So far, I believe this move down will hold at 4008-4009 which is the 1.0 extension of this decline from Friday's peak of 4109.25. Below is a close up of the ED. You can see after the 1-2, each subsequent retracement should land within the ideal area of the .50% and the .786% Fib Retracement. Our b of c of 3 landed right at the .618%. We are just below the .618% retracement now for our wave 4. The .786% resides at 3994, .884% at 3980. In my opinion, below the .786% by much is a big clue this will not complete as an ED. So this ED could be on shaky ground...but let's see if today provides further clues for tomorrow. In the 4008-4009 I may open a small long position. I’ll update if I do. Tomorrow's morning update will be my Thought Experiment for Fed Day. Thanks to all for participating last night. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Morning Update: I'm Raising a Little CashJudging by what I see in all tier-1 crypto I have decided to trim holdings. I know this is an about-face for most who read me. However I must emphasize, this is for risk management purposes more than anything ominous. This morning I sold 3,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. I still hold 4,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. My holdings have doubled so these are mostly free trades for me. Bitcoin Solana Above Main Chart ADA ETH I will reiterate. I'm raising cash for risk management purposes. If my counts on tier-1 crypto are correct, I hope to re-deploy this capital at better prices. Lastly, many of the charts I track are coming into or have competed short to intermediate term tops. Therefore, I wish to take a wait and see approach to many things I follow and trade. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by maikisch
11
Evening Update: ED pattern is Filling In but is that reality?Today we got a little retrace and so far our Ending Diagonal pattern is intact. This would mean we should get one more high into the 4130-4170 area but well within the confines of the trendlines. If the ED is playing out then price should come into the .618% of the previous move up which would be 4018-4021 area and bounce to approximately the 4130-4170 area. Now, I have stated this before, but to be abundantly clear...we have enough waves in place to consider this retracement a full pattern. Therefore, if price were to decline lower than 4018...and breach 3990 the ED is invalidated. If 3990 is breached on this move down then we look to 3901.75 to hold but in truth we stand a high chance of heading to the 3850 area, but more than likely sub 3788 becomes the ultimate destination. One of my followers @Only_Losses wants to do a thought experiment for Fed Day. You guys know the drill ...I have to do what my followers request so if 25 replies to this evening update say "Do it" I will hang my neck out to dry...expose it to ridicule for the world to see. But only if at least 25 of you want to see me experience that pain...lol. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
32
Special Update: Solana in Initial Topping ProcessI had some requests to update my Solana Count. We have topped in our wave 1 as I now have a full pattern and retracing our c wave down in wave 2. To repeat, wave 2's can be deep or shallow so there's a large ideal wave 2 bottoming area. I do want to point out that our b of 2 did make a slightly higher high which could portend a flat for c of 2...so it is possible that wave 2 bottoms in the area of the low $22 range as a flat. If my count is correct this retracement will present a major buying opportunity and to be frank, THE LAST. The reality is in the above count once price breaches the $27 level, we may head really fast into the $40's. Think of this retrace as a "Sale on Solana". Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. AFTER I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE.
BINANCE:SOLUSD
by maikisch
1
Morning Update: Waking up to DownsideThis morning the ES futures are down -43.50 to 4040.75 or just over 1%. I would venture a guess this is repositioning on the heels on Fridays OPEX. This micro structure is underdetermined to be impulsive or corrective as of my morning update. Below shows the difference. I am still unclear as to what this larger pattern will ultimately conclude as. First thing is I am watching the micro pattern to see if we finish as an impulsive 5-wave pattern...which could still be an a-wave. As I stated over the weekend, and prior to that, this retrace will provide the answers we need. This pattern is officially busted below 3901.75. So we have a lot of room the chop around before we get answers. I would prefer price stay below 4072 (wave 1 low on micro chart) until it hits the 4007.50 level. That would provide downside overlap and continue to cloud the direction of price. I'll update during the day if anything crazy happens which I do not anticipate. PS: I am still short -25 4300 Feb EOM calls which are now profitable. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
3
Special Weekend Update: Looking to the SPX for direction THIS IS A LONG POST SO IF YOURE NOT A BIG READER THIS IS YOUR WARNING: Today I wanted to try something different and look at the cash market and go through all the scenarios objectively. For those traders who have ever wondered which chart is the chart to determine the direction of the SP500, the SPX cash market or the ES futures ? It's the SPX cash market. I have said many times previously that each chart should be considered its own story. The ES (in the above main chart) is a different instrument than the SPX. Question: Then why even track the ES if our goal is to determine the direction of the SPX? Answer: For me as a trader I trade ES futures, so why would I track the cash market? It's a good question. But in truth I do not seek profits in the SPX. I primarily deal in futures options. This post is not about why I choose to do that...that's a conversation for another time. However, when I am selling a strike price and choosing what expiration cycle, the ES is going to provide me the information I need to make those decisions. However, I do think it's a relevant endeavor to check in on the cash market chart to see if it gives me clues or insight into the ES chart. The last thing on this subject I'll share is the ES chart is far more complex. I would even go as far as to say it's twice as complicated as the cash market chart. The overnights provide complex patterns in a low volume environment that as an analyst sometimes can make things very challenging to analyze. But let's dive into the cash market and see what clues, if any, we can ascertain. This post supposes NO BIASES. Bullish or Bearish...I'm looking at all the potential scenarios. We start from the October Lows: BLUE PATHWAY Highlighted in Blue I can count a leading diagonal off the October lows. Now a leading diagonal is a motive wave, which means the prevailing trend is now up, and we should be able to count a 5-wave structure into its ultimate conclusion. If the blue count is correct, then this supposes the October lows could be the bottom for the bear market. Why is that? Because we look for corrective patterns to end and reverse-trend upon observing the developments of motive waves. Motive waves are confined to impulsive 5-wave patterns and diagonals. Nonetheless, I can count a leading diagonal in 5 overlapping waves, followed by corrective price action in a 3-wave structure equating to a wave 2. Currently I would state that price now appears to be in its first subdivision wave 3 (i of 3)...with one caveat, we should be targeting the .618% to .786% fib extension. The .618% extension resides at 4140.81. However, price has yet to breach the 4100 level. This level in the cash market has been rejected twice before. So, if price can get above the 4100 level and stay there...the blue pathway is intact and must not be ignored. Blue Pathway Conclusion: I would say the next week should provide enough price action to breach the 4100 level and see some sort of reaction to the .618% area of 4140.81. If price does get as high as the 4140.81 level, I think it’s time to adopt a more bullish perspective. However, under the blue pathway if at any time price breaches 3764 then this pattern invalidated. Now 3764 is a long way away from where we are now...so you see price can decline by a lot and still not invalidate the bottom is in thesis. Therefore, the blue pathway has a lot going for it as of now. My issues with the blue pathway are this all starts with a diagonal. Diagonals are notoriously unreliable patterns because they can be interpreted as something else as I will explain next. BLACK PATHWAY Highlighted in Black The black pathway, in my opinion, is a safer pathway for traders to adopt because it doesn’t suppose we are impulsive. You see under the previously explained blue pathway, and impulsive considering the leading diagonal start would point to the possibility of ending as high as minimum target of 4846 and as high as 5349.75. That’s new highs. So, to adopt that analysis and not consider the black pathway which could reach only 4220.39 to 4372.01. The risk here is waiting for price to reconcile higher (blue count), only to find price at NEW LOWS and not new highs. As a trader, price must prove its intentions to me every step throughout the structure. I have received many direct messages criticizing me about the fact that I typically will feature 2, and on occasion 3 potential outcomes on a chart. I have no idea why readers think I should tell them the future of where price will go and give them one outcome. People who read my posts, or who choose to follow me, get my personal trading strategy annotated on a chart who is seeking to profit from his analysis...not provide readers with a money back guarantee. Formulating a trading strategy around the black pathway (which could finish around 4200-4400) is infinitely less dangerous than the previous blue pathway. However, you’ll notice the two pathways follow an initial similar path. Black Pathway Conclusion: Clearly, I favor the black over the blue pathway mainly for risk management purposes as price approaches the 4200-4400. I have no problem with the black pathway. I have only a slight concern that the “b” wave bottom struck on 12/22 was too quick to be all of the b-wave considering the length of the previous “a” wave. There is no Elliott Wave rule that substantiates my concerns with respect to duration. Let’s just say my intuition is this area will be revisited before going higher. Now my concerns will be alleviated if price breaches 4100 and stays above it. We have come into this area (the area we are now) twice before. If three times is a charm...prove it. GREEN PATHWAY Highlighted in GREEN ARROWS Now, as an analyst, the green pathway solves all my concerns. It fits within the rules of EWT, and It solves not only the issue I have with duration, it solves the overlap issues I have with the leading diagonal (how we started) and the overlapping issues afterwards. It also catches most of the traders off guard as witnessed in the put/call ratio. I will acknowledge sentiment was extremely bearish in October and a retrace of some magnitude was warranted and we’re getting that now. But recently I have taken to listening to the live CNBC stream on my phone while in the office as back ground noise. I noticed the other day; I get the sense from the CNBC guests that sentiment is bullish now, or at least getting more bullish. I see that bullish (or at least constructive) view show up in the fact that traders, by and large, are not too protected from downside. The P/C ratio in the ES on Friday got down to 1.3 that means slightly more traders are buying puts than calls. The normal P/C ratio in the ES is around 1.75-2.0 during uptrends. Green Pathway Conclusion: I favor this pathway because it solves the time duration between the a-wave and the b-wave. It also reconciles why we have so much overlap in price. In summary, I am unsure which of the above pathways price will take. When a trader is analyzing corrective price actions there are many forces at play. These forces push, pull and tug on prices in both directions. But in all the above cases, I am expecting a retrace. Whether that retrace is small (as in Blue and Black) or deep (as in Green)...WE SHOULD BE RETRACING SOON. This retrace, and what price does afterwards will provide a huge opportunity for profits. Let’s not get married to one pathway over another...LET’S LET PRICE PROVE Its INTENTIONS...AND THEN BE PREPARED TO PROFIT. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
10
Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chris
TVC:US30Y
by maikisch
4