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Elliottwaveforecasts

Trade Alert: Sell -25 Feb 2023 EOM 4300 calls at $7Raised $8,679 in Premium for next months P&L. Here's what changed for me today. Yesterday I said if price breached 4055 I need to see it take out the red trend line. I've been seeing the beginnings of an ending diagonal for a while. The overlap in the beginning when I said these patterns are not going to put us in jeopardy of price getting away from us. Nonetheless price has rallied. I was counting this as a 1-2, i-ii this morning. Wave iii of 3 is the strongest portion of a move. THIS MARKET SHOULD BE MOVING HIGHER AGGRESSIVELY...It's not. It's now overlapping again where it should be testing 4080-4090 and maybe even tagging 4100. Another thing weighing on my mind is so many charts I track, crypto included, are coming into full patterns off their lows needing a retrace. Sorry to switch gears so fast, but this chart should be showing signs of impulsivity today...and it's not. Therefore, I have opened up an OTM money short call position mainly to hedge what I've been waiting for and that is a couple hundred point decline to open a short put position in size. If at anytime price breaks above the ENDING DIAGONAL TRENDLINES I'LL RE-EVALUATE by taking an outright long position. This is a risky trade. I am not advocating shorting the market unless price continues to overlap as outlined above. Ending Diagonals will retrace to their origins. Therefore if confirmed we should decline in purple to 3840-3875 area minimum...and that could just be the "a" wave (in Black). PS: This post will serve as my evening update as I have plans this evening. I'll answer DMs and Comments to this post. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8
Morning Update: Benefit of the Doubt to BLACKI've discussed in the past about technicians and elliotitions getting married to analysis. This is easy to do even for the most experienced analysts. Just the psychology of bottoming and topping turning points Elliott mused that at turning points, traders can't let go of their attachments to the previous trend and before they realize that trend ended, the new trend is well on it's way. Price has been stubborn to retrace any of it's hard fought gains since the October bottom. Therefore I have to give my black count the benefit of the doubt. In the black count we may move as high as 4080-4090 for i of 3. Purple & Green have little room if any to rally before we retrace hard...but what is actionable trading information is in either case we should expect a retrace of some proportion. Purple and Green counts require a C wave to complete these patterns. C wave can be swift so we look to the structure to determine what count we're in. Purple can complete anywhere in the gray target box...but below 3840 which would be a flat, I have to adopt Green as my primary. Green supposes we're headed to mid 3700 to high 3600's. Now that I have given you the parameters, and I've stated I am giving the black count the benefit of the doubt...we watch to see what unfolds over the course of the next week. If we get up into the 4080-4090 area I will reopen a Jan EOM 4125-4150 short call position. If we immediately retrace (as in purple/green), I plan to do nothing until I can ascertain a bottoming pattern. I do not believe that will occur in the next couple days. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: YOU ARE HEREAs we trade the day to day...the micro machinations of the SPX and ES Futures, I want to put into context where we are within the overall bigger picture. Having completed our Super Cycle wave (III) and begun to retrace in our SC wave (IV) ...you can barely even see the current decline from the high of January 2022. Within this Super Cycle wave (IV), we are simply working on completing our b of larger a to come sometime latter 2023-2024. That's right, we haven't even completed a cycle A wave yet. The purple box shows our alternation with Super Cycle Wave (II) which was very deep and quick. That purple box would represent the current magnitude of the SC wave (II) juxtaposed over current prices. Our wave (IV) will alternate and be long ( 2 Decades to complete ) and shallow ( completing at the 2.382% to as low as the 2.0% Fib Support Area ). Many of you will disagree with this chart. I understand the skepticism. However, cycles being what they are, this chart stands a high probability of becoming a reality... whether we like it or not . SO, as we carve out our profits day to day....remember in the grand scheme of things.... .... WHERE YOU ARE ON THE LONG TERM CHART! Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
12
Evening Update: Today I'm grateful I have Trading RulesThis morning as we were headed towards the lows I decided to close all my short call positions and go flat. Am I bullish? No Am I bearish? No. The uncertainty, with so many counts on the chart, some of which we were coming into the target box, caused me to go flat. I share this with you because as you analyze markets, I want you to trust your intuition. Most of all, when you can look as a chart and say, I'm unclear on the direction....get flat. I'm still flat as of writing this update. I mentioned in an update earlier that when price breaches 4055, we're going to 4300. I want to add 1 small caveat. The big red trendline. I want to see price breach 4055 and the red line. Let me explain, when I get into the 3 min fractals this looks like an ABC a-wave off the lows of today. I know it looks impulsive but with the price action I have now it looks like a 5, 3, 5 right into the 1.0. Therefore I'm still torn between purple and black. #PRICEPROVEIT Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Trade Alert: I prefer to be flatIn an abundance of caution and since I have a bottoming count in the black wave 2, I've decided to take my profits off the table. Therefore I have closed my Jan EOM 4100 Calls in which I kept over 80% of the original premium raised and my newly opened 4180 Feb EOM calls in which I kept 35% of the original premium raise for a total amount of $15,231 in premium income for January. I want to be clear....this is not to say I'm bullish. This is a risk management decision for me. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
Morning Update: Solana is consolidating in wave ii of 3I have several DM's to update my followers on Solana...so here it is. Solana is now consolidating below it's recent high of $26.55 in what I'm counting as it's wave ii of 3. The range for this wave ii can be as deep as $18.41. However price cannot breach $15.24 which is where I'm counting the start of wave i. I mention that only to provide context. I do not post every day on Solana, and other crypto currencies I track because, Unlike the SP500 futures, the patterns don't warrant daily updates. Judging by the chart above I will post again if price breaks out, or threatens my count by approaching the $15.24 area. Nonetheless, I expect the next time price breaches $26.55 it will take off as we will be in a wave 3. Wave 3's are noticeable. They are the strongest portion of an impulsive wave. Therefore above $26.55 I do not anticipate price hanging out and just meandering. I expect the "Boom"! Wave 3 should conclude the range of $45.38 to as high as $54.65 is extending. Funny, when I just wrote the number $54.65 I realize with 7,000 SOL down in the $12 average price area...that's a nice chunk of change. But rather than get ahead of myself...lets focus on the immediate pattern and allow price to continue to prove the count is correct as we progress through this impulsive rally. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by maikisch
9
Morning Update: Black wave 2 3950-3960We're retracing off of yesterday's close. Since all of my counts require a retrace it will interesting to see which ones are invalidated. I stated a couple weeks back that the bottom we strike here within the this pattern weather it's a wave 2 of c or b-wave, is a bottom to buy for a nice rally to 4300-4500. From time to time I do this so I thought it may be a time to check under the hood of the SPX. I do not track stocks so I have no long-term EW counts in place....so the below charts are very rudimentary. Looking at Microsoft, I could debate Microsoft the stock has a 5-wave move up off the low, and a 3-wave move down for a wave 2. This is what you want to see in a bottom. However, price last night hit the .764 retracement post earnings, and but until breach the wave 1 high of approximately $263 we simple have no conclusive clue that the bottom in November of $213 is the bottom. Additionally, breaching the 263 high is just a first clue. So, MSFT has a lot of work to do. I would say the jury is out on MSFT striking a bottom. Looking at Amazon, Unlike MSFT, Amazon has positive divergence into its last low, but the stock has not completed 5-up off the bottom. Unlike MSFT that has a full 1-2 in place. Maybe AMZN will pop after its earnings, but it still doesn’t explain why it’s so far behind in the pattern visive MSFT. MSFT and AMZN are the largest components of the SPX, but these 2 stocks do not do the entirety of the SPX justice. Nonetheless, in looking at the largest 8% of the SPX components...if I was to sum up the SPX/ES charts...it’s only slightly negative. Yes, there are some constructive aspects of the above patterns...but nothing conclusive. Does it signal a constructive rally of some magnitude...You’ll get no argue from me on that conclusion. If we retrace into the 3950-3960 area today, it's important to note that the next time price breach 4055...we're headed to 4300. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Morning Update: OMH for ADA should do itADA has extended nicely off the bottom. However we are coming into the 2.618 and 3.0 Fib Extension areas. Here I would expect a reaction that could start our retracement in wave 2. Again, I'll reiterate...wave 2's can be shallow, so to get cute and try to sell with the intention of buying back lower is risky. I got a lot of DM's regarding ADA asking will it come back down? I don't answer them. I am not in the trader counseling business. Buying and selling is your decision. If you sell ADA in this area, and we get a long consolidation or a shallow retrace followed by a "rip your face off rally above $.60"...please spare me the DM's. I thank you in advance...lol. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by maikisch
8
Morning Update: You’ve Got My Attention If you’ve traded the ES and the indices as a whole for any length of time you’ve heard the phrases “ The Markets is Climbing a Wall of Worry ”, or “ The Most Hated Rally ”. This signifies traders are not positioned to take advantage of a rally. Clearly sentiment was more negative than the market had intentions. I have been on the side of expecting lower prices. I’m a huge fan of the rally but only after prices retreated into the 3800’s first . However, I do not want to be a hater of a rally that leaves me behind, or worst, catches me short. Therefore, I wanted to provide my playbook as to not be caught off guard. All of my counts require some downside retrace of small to large magnitude. If price decides to trade above yesterday’s high...I may close all short calls. My January calls are almost worthless, but the position I opened yesterday will cause me concern because that doesn’t expire till end of February. In the cash market, this looks much cleaner. I would expect price to get a deep retrace or reconcile as an ABC zig zag down in the 3700’s. The ES always runs the risk of containing noise due to the lower liquidity of the overnights. Sometimes it will give you signals as to how the cash market will react, sometimes it confuses. I’m undecided as to whether it’s confusing noise, or it’s signaling to me the market intends to go higher and not retrace like my analysis shows. If ES trades above yesterday’s high. I may close out all short call positions. We have already extended to the 3.618% Fib Area...and I’m not going to give upside price advances much room before I pull the plug on shorting. Keep in mind, these are not outright short positions in the ES. If you’re outright short the ES right now, you’re giving yourself NO ROOM FOR ERROR. Therefore, have stops in place. I’ll be frank...if the market continues to move higher from here...I’ll hate the rally. Yes, I’ll be one of those traders. But will I allow it to cause losses....NOT ON YOUR LIFE. Suffice to say, the bulls have my attention now. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
Evening Update: Things got complicated todayIf I had a $100 dollars every time I mentioned here on trading view that I spend 90% of my time analyzing and 10% of my trading I'd have a nice chuck of change. But markets are NOT linear, and that's why when I trade, I try to give myself the best opportunity for a profit. Let's discuss the (ES) chart first, then I want to juxtapose my analysis on the cash market (SPX). See Below Micro chart of the (ES). With price breaching the 4017 level, this rally off 3901.75 appearing impulsive in nature has surpassed the 2.618% Fib Level (Blue arrow and Circle). The 2.618% is usually good to halt most impulsive structures, even the ones that extend. However we blew right through that and even went over the previous local high of 4035. That presents us with several scenarios now. I must confess I'm split equally on each potential and therefore I do not have a primary pathway as of my writing this update. Black Count The black count supposes we bottomed in minor (b of larger "b") at 3901.75 last week. Under the black count we are now starting to carve out our initial subdivisions of our c-wave higher into the 4300-4530 area. To confirm black is the highest probability outcome and my primary pathway, price has to retrace in a wave 2 of c and should hold 3976-3934. Upon retracing to this area, I need to see an explosive rally that first breaches 4180 and ultimately goes to 4300-4530 area. Purple Count For the purple count to be a b-wave flat we need to see retrace but must hold 3841, (ideally 3912-3841) worst case scenario. Anything below 3841 and the newly added green count becomes the most viable option. Corrective Flats are not rare, but they are a pattern you don't certainly see that often. If price holds those regions, I would expect to see in the same manner as Black to the same area of the 4300-4530 region. Green Count The green count supposes our B wave has not concluded at all. I have stated for weeks that the overlapping manner of this pattern off the 4180 spike and reversal on December 13th was not a pattern in jeopardy of blasting off to the upside or the start of a new bullish trend. I still believe that. From a trader sentiment standpoint there's just too much indecision within that pattern to be a new bull run. Therefore Green is confirmed if price gets below 3841 (where both black and purple become invalidated or low probability). The green count reconciles low 3700 area for a standard "abc zig zag pattern". The SPX still looks like an ABC down to much further levels. That is why I believe the market is very confused as to what it wants to do (when I compare the ES to the Cash Market). I would assume in the days to come it's intentions will be known. Today I shorted -10 Feb EOM 4180 calls at $23 for $11,471 in Premium. Those calls went as high as $32 which gave me a 39.13% trade drawdown. This is not the area I feel like most my trades go. Short OTM calls at the 2.618% fib extension level is a "top tick" 9.9 out of 10 times. I'm still in this trade and will hold on for a retrace in either of the counts above and re-evaluate my position then. If anyone has any questions or comments please leave them below and I'll answer them all. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
7
Weekend Update: Ethereum Coming into the I of (3) target boxEthereum has rallied almost 60% in the last two months...and not only is the rally not over, it appears to be in its infancy. Given the case that ETH has already completed a (1)-(2), and now we're subdividing in our wave (3). This portion of any impulsive pattern I expect to be the strongest portion of the rally. If my count is correct, I expect price to get above 2000 as the .786 Fibonacci level is the ideal resistance are for price to complete wave i of 3. However, with OMH, price could complete below the .786 as we should have a full micro pattern. What is important is that once wave I and II of (3) completes (black arrows) once price then breaches the wave I high... price should head fairly expeditiously to the $3,300 to $3,400 for just the wave (3) of what I'm forecasting as an impulsive 5-wave pattern. So, we continue to progress as forecasted. Although I cannot time this move , it would not shock me if by summer time Ethereum could be in the mid $3,000 level. So far I have no reason to think Ethereum intends to go another route other than the above outlined pathway. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by maikisch
1
Weekend Update: Slightly Higher Early Next Week, then Down?With price on Friday breaching 3969 which was the point where the purple count would become my primary over the Black count. The above chart features the old purple count as primary now. As you may remember under the purple count chances are much lower that price will make it down to the sub 3788 level. We needed to see an impulsive 5-wave pattern that could reach those levels given how we started and this doesn't appear to be the case. There's a purple "b" on the above chart. Although an alternative, our b could have bottomed. We have a 3-wave move down but only above 4035 does this become reasonable. I believe we will edge up early next week towards 3992 to as high as 4018 and start lower. This move lower should take us to the mid 3800 area. If price follows that path this is an area I hope to go long in size. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
Evening Update (Early): To "b" or not to "B" I'll make this clear, concise and quick. PURPLE If we retrace to at or above 3969....Purple is confirmed. 3969 would be the 50% retracement of wave 3. Now the impulsive count would not be invalidated but probability wise this is not a wave 4. This would be an ABC. The Purple count will not get to and below 3788. BLACK If price gets to approximately 3930-3945 and then retreats again to take out 3901.75 and goes to the area of 3880-3885 and begins to retrace higher over the course of the next day or so...this would be a clean 5-down and 3 up for a 1-2 down. This would point us to the mid to low 3700 minimum. In an abundance of caution I closed my short put position for about 80% of the premium. For accountability purposes, I posted that in the comments section of my morning update. I will be off the desk tomorrow unless the "DoDo hits the fan" (which I do not anticipate)....I'll post again in my weekend update. I'll still answer DM's and Comments. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
31
Morning Update: What's Next?I would anticipate our retrace up start today. This retrace will either be a minor wave 4 or a b-wave. If we get above 3972 then it's likely this is a b wave retracement and not a 4th wave in an impulsive wave 1 of c. Incidentally we're now in the target box for purple b. Micro chart below: I think we're extending in wave 3 still. So I anticipate a wave 4 retrace and OML if we are to remain impulsive....or we retrace in a b wave higher without a wave 4 consolidation as per the micro chart above. We have the .50% Fib Retracement Support at 3912...as well as the .618% at 3882.75. I expect a reaction off of one those if we get down that far today. Nonetheless, the most important thing I am watching today is the structure of this wave down, and the anticipated retrace. This will tell me if we're eventually going to sub 3788 or not. Best to all, Chris For those who are interested: I want to take a brief moment to explain the trade I did last night as I have gotten many DM's inquiring about it. This post is not the place to give a lesson in futures options. I hope to do that in the future as futures options are my main source of profit. When you trade an option, a contract between the buyer and seller is already organized within the option. I NEVER BUY OPTIONS...NEVER-EVER. I only sell. I do so, because I believe sellers have the statistical edge over buyers by an insurmountable percentage. Last night I sold 25 put contracts at the 3880 strike for $4.35 each. In doing do so, the buyer deposited in my account $5367. The trader who bought those options from me obviously thinks the ES will be below 3880 before those contracts expire which is tomorrow at 5pm EST. SO I'm selling a specific price, and at a specific time. Hypothetically, the ES could go to 3879 today but if it's above 3880 at precisely 5pm EST the buyer loses his entire investment to me. I sold those options last night when the ES was at 3939. Since last night the ES has gone against me by 20 points. But because time is ticking those options are only worth $3.50. So if I bought them back from him now I would pay $4,445.50. I would keep $921.50. Those options above 3880 have NO INSTRINSC VALUE. The buyer is gambling in my casino, and I am the house. Now, if the ES goes below 3880 between now and Friday at 5pm EST, these could become very expensive for me to buy back and therefore could lose a lot of money very quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
14
Evening Update: Today was a Good StartWe're now getting into the target box for purple b. To me this move down reeks of a c wave. If this is a c wave...we may not get down to my primary target of sub 3788. To get down to sub 3788 we need a 5 wave move. Here's the micro of what I'm referring to. As of right this minute, I have to classify this as a C wave down. However, if tonight or into tomorrow, we get a shallow retrace higher and OML ...I'll have 5 clean waves down. Then that's a pattern that could reconcile in the sub 3788 area. If we trade above 3997 for any reason then that target will not happen. That's overlap. So the retrace is of vital important to my trading strategy. My shorts are up 90% in less than a week. Unfortunately I was only comfortable with getting off 10 contracts. If you did well today based on my updates, post in the comments...let me hear from you. I always enjoy reading the feedback (Good, Bad or Indifferent). Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
20