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SP500 Short OpportunityHi traders, SP 500 is in a corrective cycle that started at the beginning of 2022. We do expect further down to end the WXY corrective structure. This will create new lows and it will break down the 3480 level. Considering that, we can take advantage of it by trading the end of B in the intermediate degree (blue) and riding the whole wave C before ending the corrective cycle WXY of wave 2 and starting the new bullish cycle. Short potential idea: Entry: 4144 SL: 4442 Target: 3210 Risk: max 2% of your account Always keep in mind that risk management is, at least, as important as the entry-level or the SL. Remember the quote “If you do not manage the risk, you will not have any risk to manage” The market is always repeating the same type of defined structures. There are only two main wave types: the motive wave and when the motive wave ends it starts a corrective wave. Within them, there are only 3 motive waves structures (Impulse, leading diagonal , and ending diagonal ) and 5 main types of corrective structures (ABC, WXY, Flats, triangle, WXYXZ (triple correction)) Learning them and being able to spot them in the price action graphs will completely change the way you trade as these structures will provide entry point areas, invalidation levels, and targets for the trade. Have a safe and profitable trading day Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it is only the explanation of what we are going to do and it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TradingtheRightSide
Short AMBUJA CEMENT with 1:17 RRAmbuja cement is going to fall near about 17% and the stop loss is near to 1% only. Best time to get the maximum reward. These types of moves generally come to notice with the ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY, as in this case: Ambuja cement from its high made wave A sharp and wave B triangle. Wave C is about to come, and if we see wave C near about equal to wave A, the reward is maximum. Also, wave 5 is extended towards a time high and should be retracted. Half of wave 5 is already retraced and half is left which should be retraced by wave C. The stop loss is 524 and the target is 426. Happy trading, guys.
NSE:AMBUJACEMShort
by tradersmantra
BAC - Bank of America (full monthly chart)A difficult chart to label. On an linear scale it looks like an expanding ending diagonal, BUT on a logarithmic scale it looks like a contracting ending diagonal. I chose the latter, even though it, in theory, violates the rule (the first wave is shorter than wave 3). Still, the rule is not violated on the linear scale. It's also possible the move is an impulse wave (in that case the diagonal would be a leading diagonal), but the initial wave 1 of the higher degree looks more like a zigzag. The bottom line is - if the price doesn't enter the price territory of wave 1 (around $19+) it invalidates the pattern and would suggest an impulse wave.
NYSE:BACShort
by PriceActionHelp
AMZN | Wave Projection | Upcoming Fakeout Head & ShouldersPrice action and chart pattern trading: > A possible ABC downtrend correction scenario with a upcoming fake breakout head & shoulders formation > Key dynamic resistance EMA50W and EMA160W > S Entry @ EMA50W and downtrend upper resistance zone > TP1 @ 0.786 fibo extension +35% > TP2 @ 1.0 fibo head & shoulders target +45% > SL @ B-wave head position -15% > Risk reward ratio: 2:1 and 3:1 > Indicator: RSI week bullish momentum supporting the uptrend resistance false breakout Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing 100%
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by dukeposh
Netflix 100% jump Hey friends, Netflix reported positive earnings again for the first time in Q3 2022. What a coincidence, though, that the stock has been trending upward again for 162 days. The Netflix stock has gained almost 80% in value and the recently published quarterly figures seem to indicate that we have finally seen the bottom of the streaming giant. Netflix has now completed its first five-part run with a high at around $288, but which can still easily extend to $300. After that, I expect a wave 2 sell-off to the 0.786 retracement at $190.23. If the share rises sustainably in a wave 3, a price jump of at least 100% is possible! The wave 3 reaches at least the 1.618 extension at 394.14$ (107.41%) So the next time at NFLX will be exciting!
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by DavidJankowski
Bitcoin Breaking The Channel SupportBTCUSD is coming sharply down in the 4-hour chart and seems like it's going to retest June lows within 5th wave after the recent complex corrective structure in wave 4. So, watch out for more weakness towards 17k-12k area, but maybe within a slower price action as part of the ending diagonal pattern for wave 5, unless it alternatively stays sideways within wave 4 bearish triangle formation. On the hourly chart, we can also see five waves down from 20.600 resistance area, which suggests more downside in the near future, after any short-term rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
9
Market Structure: The analysis we use to skip (and we shouldn't)Hi traders, today we want to explain why market structure analysis is as important as a good entry signal strategy. Note: For this article, we differentiate the entry signal from the market structure analysis. In some cases, the entry signal considers also the market structure but in these cases, we could easily split the set of rules into rules to define the market structure, and the rules to enter the market (entry signal). So we will consider it as two steps or phases. One of the most common mistakes (which I did a lot in my trading early years) is that traders tend to focus on finding the best entry signal, the SL level, and the target, which is great but is only half of the work. Only with this part and with proper risk management, you can be profitable. However, this is only the mechanical part of the trading strategy which, in most cases and especially if the entry signal is based on indicators, could perfectly be automated as these are only a set of rules (based on indicators or other technical analysis tools) that trigger the entry signal. What it is as important as the SET (Stop, Entry & Target) is the analysis of the market structure of each asset. By that we mean that we should know: - What is the current cycle of the asset? Where did the cycle start? - Is it bullish or bearish? - Is it impulsive or corrective? - When and at what level this cycle is expected to end? - Which structure this cycle has? - and so on… This is the part that was tougher for me to learn, and it is the part that requires more time and experience. Detect the subtle difference that very similar market structures can have and differentiating them will take you time. Do not misunderstand me, it is not rocket science, but it can be tricky. The market does not use to move on perfect defined structures we can easily identify, most of the time it can be difficult to detect these structures. We use the Elliot Wave principle mainly (but not only) to help us “find” the right market structure of each asset. How we see the Elliott Wave principle (EWP) in one sentence would be: It is a set of rules that help us to divide the market in impulse and corrections to know where and when each of these cycles has started and also to forecast when AND WHERE it is expected the cycle will end. It can sound not too much but believe me it is a lot. Even though the Elliot Wave principle (EWP) rules are perfectly defined, to apply them on the chart would be not 100% objective and, therefore, the same rules can be applied differently by each trader on the chart. This is why it takes more time to identify the right way to interpret and apply the EWP rules to the chart and this is the reason why it is the part that used to take more time for the trader to be proficient in. We see and use the EWP as a guideline or a map structure of the asset we are analyzing, (VERY IMPORTANT) we do not use EWP alone to enter the trade. We use it to know the structure of the asset and to infer the most probable direction that the price will take in the future. With EWP as the base of our trading strategy, we will use other analysis tools like the correlation between the different asset groups or the market dynamics to refine the assets that give us the maximum options of having a winning trade (after applying the entry signal strategy). Another very important point we want to make clear from the beginning is that we should be flexible in our predictions. We do have a clear view of the structure that we think the market is having at this moment for each asset. However, we need to be prepared to be wrong, by that we mean that we need to know and be aware of what are (if any) the other potential structure the cycle we are analyzing can have. This is why we will not enter a trade based on the wave count only and we need the other tools we mentioned before. Therefore, and to wrap it up for this lesson, EWP gives us a lot of crucial information that is the base of all our trading strategies. To summarize it and make clear how we use the EWP, we use EWP to: - Know the Right side of the market for each asset (Long or Short) - Detect whether the asset is in an impulsive or on a corrective cycle and its internal structure - Project the zone where the asset is expected to end the correction (to apply there the entry signal strategy) - Project the level where the impulse wave is expected to end (which would be different depending on the wave we are in) (Target) All these will help us to find zones where we can apply our S.E.T. (Stop-Entry-Target) rules to maximize the overall return of our strategy as it will increase a lot our Winning percentage. Have an amazing and successful trading day TRS team
Education
by TradingtheRightSide
This Bear Market Is Almost Over But... This chart contains the overall planned levels for the bottom. The details are below. Primary wave 5 levels are annotated on the left of the lines and Intermediate wave 5 levels on the right. The blue lines are based on the most specific wave position data and the yellows are slightly less specific. The other lines are common Fibonacci and algorithmic trading levels. The significance of 198 trading days was highlighted in my prior analyses which can be found in my TradingView profile. It looks like we are in the final leg of this Bear Market. I currently have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 or wave 2. Through Intermediate wave 5, I name this wave 152A55, and refer to it as a wave ending in 2A55, A55, or 55. Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 likely began within the last hour of trading on October 5th. Minute waves 1 and 2 likely concluded on October 6 while wave 3 finished with the low in the first hour of trading on Friday. Minute 4 was the top shortly after that. The current debate is where did or will Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 end? The majority of Friday was Minute 5 and if it concluded it is displayed here. There is a chance we are still in the late stages of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1. I don’t exactly like this because Minute wave 5 is quite long, however, it is not constrained by length requirements this time. My wave 3 indicator has fired at two locations in the chart below. The first tends to identify waves 3 of 3 and the final may find the end of a wave 3. The theory of us remaining in Minor wave 1 should prodcue a new low beneath 3620 on Monday and a large up day on Tuesday. The theory we are in Minor wave 2 would have us up pretty much all day on Monday and Tuesday. No matter what, this analysis is meant to layout the final movements of Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5 and Intermediate wave 5. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON PRIMARY WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS As of Friday’s close, Primary wave 5 is 37 days long. Primary wave 1 was 35, 2 was 23, 3 was 56, and 4 was 40. Studying waves ending in 2A5, there is not much model agreement on Primary wave 5’s length. The most now is 8 models on 40 days, 4 models on 56 days, and 3 models on 37 days. With the inflation report, earnings and the Fed ahead, 37 and 40 days does not sound likely. The move extension percentages by quartile based on waves ending in 2A5 is 112.36% for the first quartile, 1.3509% for the median and 2.0451% for the third quartile. These are plotted on the main chart at the top with blue lines and the values are on the left. Waves ending in A5 have quartile move extensions of 112.36% again, 122.26%, and 163.93%. These levels are plotted on the chart above with annotations on the left and yellow lines. My models have more agreement on length. Most agreement has 12 models pointing to a length of 40 days, 10 models at 37 days, 8 models at 56 and 60 days, with 7 models at 46 days. Day 46 would be October 20th and this could be close to the bottom. BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS Now that we have got through Intermediate waves 1-3 and most likely 4, my models use this data to further project were Intermediate wave 5 should end. I can then take this day as well as the Primary wave 5 data in attempts to refine the potential bottom. Intermediate wave 1 lasted 14 days, 2 was 4 days, 3 was also 14, and wave 4 was 2 days as of now. Our initial wag (wild a** guess) was for Intermediate 5 to last around 15 days. Since wave 1 generally makes up 20% of the larger wave it is in we figured wave 1 would be 3 days, 2 would be 2, 3 would be 4, 4 would be 1-2, and 5 would be around 3. This would roughly place the bottom of 1 on October 10th, top of 2 on October 12th, bottom of 3 (after a significant drop from the inflation report) on October 18th, top of 4 on October 19th or 20th, and the final bottom around October 25th. The models for day length based on waves ending in A55 have the most agreement for a total length of 3, 4, and 8 days. The second most agreement is 9 days, and then a third place tie for 10, 17, 18, 21, and 32 days long. Less than 8 days in my opinion is too quick, however, time will tell. The quartile move extension for waves ending in A55 are 106.1%, 133.14% and 167.15%. The levels are on the main chart with annotations on the right with blue lines. Lastly is the larger and more broad dataset for waves ending in 55. The most model agreement is between 2-4 days total (55-58 models point here). The next area of agreement has 29 models at 5 days, 28 at 6 days, 27 at 10 days, 21 at 7 and 14 days, 18 at 8 days, 14 at 12 days, 12 at 11 days, and 10 at 20 days. The move extensions are 112.52% for the first quartile, 126.93% for the median and 148.58% for the third quartile. These levels are annotated on the right of the main chart above and with yellow lines. Based on all of this data and projections, there are some points of agreement for the Primary and Intermediate levels on the chart. I originally projected the bottom between 3200-3450 which still appears to remain viable. I am currently estimating the bottom before November 3rd and most likely closer to October 21-25. I don’t see us breaking below 3300 this time (most likely set to occur in 2024). I conservatively like the bottom below 3440 and likely below 3400. I think the major catalyst will be the inflation report on the 13th which currently coincides with the beginning of Minor wave 3 inside of Intermediate wave 5. We will likely go down on Monday, up on Tuesday and top on Wednesday of this coming week. The inflation report will impact the early earnings reporters as well. A “bad” inflation report will likely cause the earnings projections to be lowered. The Fed will likely not come out until their meeting in the first week of November. I don’t think their decision will roil the markets and that will likely be the reason for the major gains we are forecasting over the next 7-10 months. The Fed did not want to impact the 2020 election and were dovish when they needed to be hawkish. If another global event occurs between now and then the Fed may also be dovish as they were when the Ukraine war began. No matter what, we see large gains (Cycle wave B - up) on the horizon and slower Fed policy but this bill will come due late next year and things will be gravely worse for the market (Cycle wave C – down) at the end of 2023 and all of2024.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Price predictions for MATIC. Are you Bullish on Polygon?My primary expectation for Matic is one more low in a wave five of the wave c. However it has done a lower low so we could technically go up up from here and nearly hit the 50% fib which is an ideal retracement for a lager wave 2. If we are in the wave 4 still before wave down in the wave C. We could comedown between 0.6867 all the way down to 0.4587 in a wave 2. If we come down any further I will be laddering buy orders down to 0.45 cent. Just remember it reversing in this area is not guaranteed but I think its very likely. If we do reverse to the upside the wave 3 targets would be 1.41 to 1.86 which is 90 to 150% from where we are now. :)
MLong
by Luckyjimbob111