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Elliottwaveforecasts

A case for long term investment and DCANYSE:VALE Is at an inflection point. It is a stock I have been watching for a long time as it has a nice Elliott wave pattern (If correct) Here I present the Weekly chart as I consider it for my long term portfolio (3+ years BUY and Hold) Although the chart presented here looks great (Read: Phenomenal), as an analyst utilising multiple methods, the story does not unfold as easily as I'd like. As can be seen in the snapshot below there are multiple 'anomalies' still outstanding at those green zones on the magnified weekly chart. They may or may not be filled, but our awareness of them should cause us to move forward with caution. On the Elliottwave side of things, there are two ways of looking at this. Either the recent top at ~$23 was wave i of 3 of (3) or the top of Primary w(1). If the latter is true then we will likely drop lower in to one of the green bands. So the question remains - how do we take advantage of this given a drop to just above $3? 1) You can Dollar Cost Average in at each stage distributing your allocated capital 2) Wait for a bounce in a five wave move and enter at the correction for w2 of that bounce. Use the low for a stop loss. There is no perfect way to manage the unknowns, you can only manage your primary objective, which should be to safeguard your capital - If you want to know my thoughts on NYSE:VALE and other names give this a boost and follow. best of luck!
NYSE:VALE
by investornomics
3
Final Post: The Collapse Is Brewing🚨 Final Warning: The Collapse is Brewing 🚨 The market is flashing unmistakable warning signals. If you’re still clinging to the idea of endless upside, it’s time to confront the data. Here are the key reasons why the market is on the brink of a major crash: 1. Record Dumb Money Investment, Consumer Debt, and Reckless Behavior Small traders, often referred to as “dumb money,” are more heavily invested in equities than ever in recorded financial history. Historically, these traders are most bullish at market tops, while smart money—like institutional investors—are quietly exiting. A prime example is Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time, has been signaling caution through his actions. Berkshire Hathaway is on track to finish its second straight year as a net seller of stocks, unloading a record $133.2 billion in equities through the first three quarters of 2024. The majority of these sales came from its largest holding, Apple (AAPL), generating over $125 billion in proceeds. Buffett's reluctance to reinvest that capital is a significant red flag. Even more telling, Berkshire has not repurchased any of its own stock this year for the first time in six years, signaling that Buffett believes even Berkshire itself is overvalued. This aligns with his famous adage: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” At the same time, households are drowning in record levels of debt. Credit card balances have surged to all-time highs, and auto loan delinquencies are near record levels, signaling that consumers are stretched to the brink. Meanwhile, households have allocated more of their portfolios to equities than ever before, reaching record levels of stock investments as a percentage of total household equity. This dangerous combination of overleveraged consumer spending and peak exposure to equities creates the perfect storm. When the market begins to fall, liquidity issues and forced selling could accelerate the crash dramatically. 2. Elliott Wave Analysis: A Probable Turning Point When Wave 3 is extended, Wave 5 is typically shorter and often mirrors the length of Wave 1. In the chart above, I highlight a potential key target at 6,104.51 on the SPX, where Minor Wave 5 will equal 161.8% of Minor Wave 1. This level represents a probable turning point, as Wave 5 is unlikely to extend much further given the size of Wave 3 and the guideline concerning Wave 3 extensions. Additionally, the Minor Wave 1-3 trendline, shown on the chart, is a critical resistance level and a reliable predictor for pinpointing the end of Wave 5. This trendline suggests that Wave 5 is ending very soon, most likely by the end of the year. 3. Uninverted Yield Curve (After a Record Inversion) Buffetts favorite recession indicator! The yield curve has recently uninverted, a historically flawless predictor of recessions. But this time, it spent a record amount of time inverted, signaling extreme stress in the financial system. There is a strong historical correlation between the length of the inversion and the severity and length of the subsequent recession. With this inversion lasting longer than any in recorded history, the implications for the economy could be catastrophic. Final Thoughts The writing is on the wall. With record dumb money investment, Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion, a recently uninverted yield curve after a record inversion, and record consumer debt, the market is primed for a crash. Banks are sitting on over $500 billion in unrealized losses—and that’s just what we know of. The cracks in the financial system are growing, and in 2025, we should prepare for a 40-50% correction in US equities and banking failures across the globe. Greed and recklessness have reached unsustainable levels. History shows that these excesses are always punished, and this time will be no different. Stay cautious—this is your final warning. There will be no other post.
SP:SPXShort
by BardiniCapital
4
Bitcoin to Hit $100,000 in a Cycle Degree TopBitcoin has been subdividing higher fairly normally in an extended wave 3 of 5. Currently we have no indication wave 4 is done retracing and/or consolidating. That only is confirmed when price breaks back above the recent highs just below $100k. However, upon getting into our wave 5 target box, and in the larger perspective...Bitcoin is topping in a Cycle wave I. This will occur despite the halving, and more to do with the potential top in the equity markets I am seeing now. As a risk asset, Bitcoin will enter a longer term retracement, counter to much of what your hear on the financial news or read. I don't often update on Bitcoin, so I recommend followers keep this chart handy if involved with Bitcoin. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by maikisch
XAUUSD: ABC Correction Structure Targets $2450Looking at the updated Elliott Wave analysis of Gold (XAUUSD), we can observe a clear ABC corrective structure: Wave A completed a 5-wave decline from the highs Wave B formed as a corrective rally, reaching around $2720 Wave C is now in progress, developing as a 5-wave impulse structure downward Currently in Wave C: Wave (i) has completed and Wave (ii) is nearing completion. Wave (iii) appears to be developing, showing the characteristic strong momentum of a third wave Expecting wave (iv) to form a small corrective bounce Final wave (v) should complete the entire ABC structure Key Levels: Wave B high: ~$2720 (invalidation level) Current price: Testing key support levels Target for Wave C completion: ~$2450 The parallel channel formation helps guide the price action and suggests the bearish momentum could continue until reaching our target zone. Traders should note that completion of this ABC structure could lead to a significant reversal.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ewturk
ADAUSD | Wave Analysis CUP&HANDLE Formation +200% TargetA potential ABC correction - cup with bull flag / flat handle ABC formation which currently retraced 61.8% of the A/1 wave with a possible a.4-a.5 stop hunt ending diagonal for a second false breakdown. Entry Position: Once price successfully recovered from the false breakdown support zone which could be a few attempts since wave 4 often a complex triangle. Indicator support: RSI bullish divergence in TFD confirmation of the a.5 wave. Target Position: TP1 @ 161.8% and TP2 @ 200% Fibonacci extension +200%! Invalidation: Below the lowest price position. Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stop, Good Luck
COINBASE:ADAUSDLong
by dukeposh
3
The Probabilities are stacking up that Nvidia has ToppedAs I have long forecasted, Nvidia is coming into a top of either primary or intermediate degree proportion. The answer to that burning question of mine I believe gets answered in the depth of the price action's retracement lower. Determining this answer, for me personally as an analyst, is whether or not that eventual retrace can hold above the $90.68 level, which as of this morning stands at 34% lower...so by no means am I looking at this as a mere retracement. 34% is nothing if not significant. Along the way, we're more informed in the confidence of this forecasted pathway, if price breaches the important $128.74 level. Upon seeing such price action, I believe in the weeks (or months) ahead we could see Nvidia's price action first test $102.73 area. To hold that level and reverse in a micro 5-wave pattern, could bring about our final advance into the $170 (+) area for a long term top. That top I am forecasting in years...not months. To breakdown below $102.73 could see us decline to as low as the low $70's before a corrective (but Tradeable) rally takes place. Best to all, Chris
NASDAQ:NVDA
by maikisch
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 24 NOV, 2024 ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. Wave count changed to maximize probability. Wave 3-grey has ended, and wave 4-grey is still unfolding, there is little data to suggest it has ended, I think it may still be developing. More specifically wave 4-grey is developing as a Flat, its wave ((a))-navy has completed, and its wave ((b))-navy is pushing higher, it could reach 2.765 (Wave ((b)) retraces 90% of wave ((a))-navy), or higher, then a push lower with wave ((c))-navy will unfold. Alternative wave count: Wave 4-grey has ended, and wave 5-grey will unfold. We also have a pullback with wave ((ii))-navy after that.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ShaneHua
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 22 NOV, 2024 ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. The ((a))-navy wave has completed as a Five-wave, so it is very likely that the entire ((a))((b))((c))-navy corrective wave is developed as a Zigzag ( 5-3-5). And we are moving forward with its ((b))-navy wave, which is probably developing as a Zigzag, labeled (a)(b)(c)-orange. The (a)-orange wave is almost completing its role as a five-wave, I can already count the i-grey wave to the v-grey wave. Basically the v-grey wave can push a little higher, and we will have a pullback with the (b)-orange wave after the (a)-orange wave is completed. After wave (b)-orange ends, wave (c)-orange will continue to move higher, aiming at targets around 2.691 - 2.735. And I will update continuously to follow all its developments. The push below the lower edge of the Channel is a first sign that the (a)-orange wave may be ending. ALT WAVE COUNT (Less likely): Shows that wave 4-grey ended earlier than expected, and wave 5-grey is unfolding higher. When price breaks through 2.735, I will focus on this view.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ShaneHua
NYSE:MU - ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 22 NOV, 2024 - BULLISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. I see that an ABC-grey probably just completed recently at the 84.12 low, and the corrective waves are followed by motive waves, so I expect a much higher push in this stock. Looking closer, I see that the 1-grey and 2-grey waves just completed at 95.53 and it looks like the 3-grey wave is unfolding. It is subdividing into ((i)),((ii))-navy. And after the ((ii))-navy wave is over, we can go long towards the ((iii))-navy wave. While price must remain above 95.53 to maintain this view. Key point: Wave B of wave ((ii))-navy.
NASDAQ:MULong
by ShaneHua
We can extend into the Target Box, But below $128.73 = $95 BucksNvidia has arrived in the target box for our intermediate (B) wave high. Can we extend in the target box? Yes. However, two things are top of mind to this analyst. 1) The earnings catalyst mid-November is a "keep hope alive event". Therefore, I do not see big trader commitments prior to that. If we go up further into the target box...it will be an overlapping grinding pattern. I see the earnings catalyst as positive fundamentally, but a technical sell event. 2) If price breaches $128.74...that should yield us $95. If this is how the price action plays out...then at $95, you would do well consider NVDA longs. Best to all, Chris
NASDAQ:NVDA
by maikisch
5
Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W43/2024) // AlgoFyreThe market is expected to stay within a tight range leading up to the election, with the potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes. A bullish scenario may lead to a significant rise, while a bearish scenario could result in a correction. Both possibilities are on the table. 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal (Green) Complete : It’s October 22nd, 2024. Based on the 8-hour chart, we are likely correcting or staying in a tighter range until the election. Assuming results are available on election night, that’s a key point to watch. 🔸 Corrective Phase (Red ABC) : The price may drop, correct back up, and then decline again. After that, it could go either way—bullish with a potential one-two sequence signaling a strong upward move, or bearish if it completes a three-wave ABC pattern, preparing for a drop. 🔸 Timing Around the US Election : Both bullish and bearish outcomes are valid. The price may push up to take out the high, especially if this is a wave four, forming either a WXY or a leading diagonal. If it’s a leading diagonal and the high remains intact, we could see a decline. 🔸 Bullish Impulse (Wave 3) : The wave structure suggests either a bullish move or further consolidation. RSI shows hidden bearish potential on shorter timeframes, but it’s unclear if this move has more room to the downside before continuing upward. The current five-wave formation is almost textbook in appearance. 🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): An initial wave up, followed by a drop, is likely. The move appears to be too clean to ignore. We may see further upside with volume peaking at the top of the current wave. A complex correction could follow, potentially stalling the move until after the election. Price action could remain range-bound, giving time for the election to pass before a more decisive trend emerges. In the next two weeks, we’ll see how this plays out. Up today, then potentially down later, remains the best guess for now. 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Bigger ABC Correction : It’s October 22nd, 2024. The chart shows a corrective phase, likely to remain range-bound until the election. If the election results trigger a move, we’ll see a clearer direction. 🔸 Flat Pattern for B-Wave : Expect a drop, correction, then another move down. A one-two sequence could signal a bullish breakout, but if it’s an ABC pattern, we may be preparing for a drop. 🔸 C-Wave to 52K Area : Both bullish and bearish outcomes are possible. The price may retest highs but could fall if it forms a leading diagonal. As long as the high remains untouched, a downside move is expected. 🔸 Larger C-Wave Up : The wave structure indicates a potential move down after the current five-wave sequence. RSI suggests bearish pressure on short timeframes, but the exact timing is uncertain. 🔸 Major Downtrend Next Year : The market may consolidate, form a complex correction, and then begin impulsing downward. The overall trend could remain bearish after the election. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): A move up followed by a correction could take time to fully develop. The market may stay range-bound leading up to the election. The next two weeks will be critical in determining the longer-term direction. 🔶 Key Takeaway The market is expected to remain in a tight range until the election, with potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes. A significant rise is possible under a bullish scenario, while a bearish scenario could lead to a correction. Both scenarios are valid.
by AlgoFyre
Golden opportunity for gold! The Fibonacci channel has been drawn, and Elliott waves can be observed on the chart. Currently, the price is in the fifth Elliott wave. We have two scenarios for the future of gold: 1)The first scenario is a bullish scenario. Given the geopolitical tensions and conflicts between Israel, Iran, and Lebanon, as well as China's threats against Taiwan, which have all contributed to a further increase in gold prices, if these trends continue, it could complete wave 5 at the 1.414 level of the Fibonacci channel. 2)The second scenario is a bearish scenario. If we witness a hawkish stance from the FED or a reduction in geopolitical tensions, then we should expect a price reversal from the previous high of 2687. In this case, the 0.618 Fibonacci channel level would serve as strong support. Considering the geopolitical tensions, I believe the first scenario and a breakout above the previous high are more likely. In that case, we should watch for a breakout above the previous high and then enter a long position after confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Market-Analyzer
Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W42/2024) // AlgoFyreThe market shows a bullish scenario with potential for an impulse wave up after a correction, possibly surpassing the all-time high post-election. However, two bearish scenarios suggest a major drop to 20K in the long term, highlighting significant downside risk. 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal (Green) Complete : The green lines on the chart represent the completion of the leading diagonal, which is the first wave of a larger impulse (wave 1). Leading diagonals often occur in the first wave of a new trend, indicating that a bullish trend is beginning. This is particularly important because it sets the foundation for a stronger upward movement that could follow after a corrective phase. 🔸 Corrective Phase (Red ABC) : After completing the first wave, we are now expecting a corrective structure. The red lines represent a potential ABC correction, a typical 3-wave corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory. This correction could retrace some of the gains made in the leading diagonal, potentially finding support near key Fibonacci retracement levels (like the 0.25, 0.5, or 0.75 levels) drawn in orange on the chart. 🔸 Timing Around the US Election : The chart indicates that this ABC correction may take place leading into the US election, which is often a period of increased market uncertainty and volatility. It seems that the correction is expected to conclude before or around this event, setting the stage for the next major move. 🔸 Bullish Impulse (Wave 3) : After the correction, the chart projects a strong bullish impulse (the large green arrow), which would be the beginning of wave 3. In Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an impulsive structure, often leading to significant gains. The breakout above previous highs around the 67,000-68,000 level (marked by the green wave 5 in the diagonal) would confirm the start of this impulsive wave, which could target much higher levels, possibly into the 70,000+ range. 🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): The leading diagonal in green (wave 1) suggests that a new bullish cycle is underway. We are currently expecting a 3-wave corrective move (ABC) before the next leg up. The correction could end around key Fibonacci levels, potentially coinciding with the US election. After the correction, a powerful wave 3 impulse is expected, likely driving prices significantly higher. 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Bigger ABC Correction : The market is in the midst of a larger corrective pattern. The current movement is within the B-wave of this ABC structure. 🔸 Flat Pattern for B-Wave : The B-wave is forming a flat correction, which typically indicates a sideways consolidation with a final leg up before a downward movement. 🔸 C-Wave to 52K Area : After completing the B-wave, we expect a C-wave to the downside, targeting around the 52K level. This drop represents the completion of the B-wave within the larger ABC pattern. 🔸 Larger C-Wave Up : Following this drop, the final C-wave to the upside is projected. While this wave could potentially retest or even exceed the all-time high (ATH), it's not guaranteed. The key idea is that a significant rally is expected after the corrective B-wave down. 🔸 Major Downtrend Next Year : After this anticipated rally, a substantial downtrend is expected in the following year, potentially driving the price down to 20K or lower. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Completing a B-wave flat correction within a larger ABC structure. Expecting a C-wave down to around 52K before a potential larger rally. After the larger C-wave up, a significant decline is expected, leading to 20K or lower in the following year. 🔴 Mid-Term Outlook (Next Few Months to Year) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal Completed (Red) : The red structure shows the formation of a large leading diagonal to the downside, suggesting that a strong downtrend has already been established. 🔸 Corrective ABC (Green) : After the diagonal, a corrective ABC pattern has formed. This correction has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a common level for corrections to complete before resuming the primary trend. 🔸 Major Move to the Downside : Following the completion of this corrective phase, the chart is signaling the beginning of a significant bearish move, potentially leading to a price target near the 20K level. This aligns with the broader bearish outlook. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Finished a leading diagonal to the downside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. Correction reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Expecting a major bearish move from this point, with a potential target of 20K. 🔶 Key Takeaway The market presents both bullish and bearish possibilities. The bullish scenario suggests that after a leading diagonal (wave 1) completes, a short-term ABC correction will occur, followed by a powerful wave 3 impulse to the upside, potentially pushing prices beyond the all-time high after the US election. On the other hand, the bearish scenarios indicate a significant downturn: one expects a C-wave drop to around 52K before a larger rally, followed by a steep decline to 20K or lower next year, while the other points to a completed leading diagonal with a corrective ABC reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level, signaling the start of a major move down to 20K. Despite the potential short-term upside, both bearish scenarios ultimately point to a substantial long-term decline.
by AlgoFyre
NIFTY - Elliott Wave Outlook Timeframe: Weekly NSE NIFTY began an impulsive move after hitting a low of 15183.4 . Based on the wave count, the price completed wave (5) of wave (3) at 26277.3 and has since started to decline. The price is currently in a wave (4) correction phase. Let’s switch to the daily timeframe for a closer look at the details. Timeframe: Daily On the daily chart with a neckline at 24,750 , we’re observing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming. If the price breaks below this neckline, Nifty could drop significantly, potentially reaching the demand zone or surge point of the pattern. However, if the price fails to break this neckline, it indicates weakness in the bearish momentum, signaling a possible reversal According to the Elliott Wave Principle, if wave 5 is an extended wave, the correction often occurs near sub-wave 2 of the previous impulse, especially if it falls below sub-wave 4. So, 24,570 will be a crucial level for Nifty. We can expect the price to move up by no more than 126% of wave A within the correction. Otherwise, there’s a risk of mistaking wave B for wave 3. Whatever scenario Nifty chooses, it’s better to let Nifty commit to a clear direction before we commit to the market. We will update further information soon.
NSE:NIFTY
by Trade-Technique
4
#Silver bearish counter trend opportunityAs seen in the chart, silver has formed a 5-wave bullish impulsive move and has since begun a bearish move, which could be labeled as wave A. As we know, corrective waves typically occur in three waves. I believe we are nearing the completion of wave B, which could lead to another bearish leg to complete wave C. This entire 3-wave bearish move could then form wave 2 of 5 on a higher degree. Therefore, while we might be looking at a short-term bearish move, according to Elliott Wave theory, there is still significant bullish potential in the coming weeks.
TVC:SILVERShort
by mohemati