Elliottwaveideas
Bitcoin Latest Analysis. Hello traders, welcome to today’s analysis on bitcoin, I hope you had a nice week.
Today’s analysis will be brief as usual - From our last update,
the market respected our forecast and we completed wave y which ended up about 100% of wave x, you can have a look at the previous analysis here.
From the current chart, we can see the market is moving fast and got another retracement of about 50% of wave y which I labelled wave x2. I drew the trend line to lay emphasis on our reference point. Usually I like to start my wave counts with letters, but what matters more than the letter is placing trades in the direction of the larger trend, and I try to make the analysis as logical as possible and avoid an opinion based on incomplete evidence( or too much speculations).
Now that the market has respected the levels we wanted to see, what should we expect?
We expect the market to make a push to the upside, and we can measure the potential target for this move by taking Fibonacci extension from the starting point of wave y to the ending point of wave y, and projecting from the ending point of wave x2.
To be more accurate about our target price, we make use of fib confluence levels. If you happen to have issues applying the fib tool you can reach out to me via dm, and besides, we’ll cover all that extensively during the free tradnalysis class later this month or early next month. Be sure I’ll let you know when the time is right.
To get more confirmations about this move, we also apply some indicators which tells us we are ready to move. Remember, wave count can be wrong, but what makes it formidable is when you combine it with some indicators and price action. That way you’re forming an extremely impressive formation that’ll eventually lead to profitability.
Setup: Our weekly setup will be taking a long position from higher 15k or 16k region, and we expect a move to around lower 17k to complete a wave 5 before we can expect some deeper corrections. Let’s ride the wave together and stay profitable friends.
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Nueel_classic
USDSGD Ready for a big bounceWe have just touched a pivotal support line.
Last two touches of this line in March 2019 & January 2020 both resulted in decent Elliot Wave runs (January was huge). We are likely seeing the 1st wave forming right now, add this to your watch list and get ready to take advantage of the pull back and the big take off of wave 3.
USD/CHF - 2 Bullish & 1 Bearish Elliott Wave PatternsThe USD/CHF made two bullish Elliott waves, and it's making the third Elliott wave, but this one is bearish. This chart is all about learning to apply the Elliot wave pattern. The first bullish Elliott wave started on the 21st of October and ended on the 23rd of October . And the second bullish Elliott wave started on the 23rd of October and ended on the 4th of November .
Now, from the 4th of November, the bearish Elliot wave started, and The fifth wave is in the still making process. ABC correction is remaining .
If you like my technical analysis on the Elliott wave theory in this chart, then like, comment, and follow me.
No Election Winner For Weeks, No ProblemElection day is finally here. My wave projections have changed a little, but not for the worst. I previously suspected us to be near the end of a major Grand SuperCycle, but I no longer believe that is the case. I shifted some of my waves around after running multiple tests and found a different mapping of the waves provided for more consistent ratios of wave lengths and movements. I previously had the “COVID crash” ending at Cycle wave 4 and leaving us about 18 months to complete the final Cycle wave 5. I now have that bottom in March ending Cycle wave 2 after it began in September 2019. Furthermore, instead of Cycle wave 1 only lasting a few years (2009 to 2011), I now had it run 9 years (March 2009 to September 2019. This all means the major market crash I was projecting in 2022 is now pushed to 2030 or later. Also, we are in for a major market boom beginning this December.
But first, we must move down. The next few weeks will likely be difficult as we wait for results, legal challenges, and other circus acts. I believe we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 2. The top we find today, or likely found this morning will be the end of Minute wave 4 and we should find the end of Minute wave 5 / Minor wave A on Thursday around 3150.39. We should tick up for Minor wave B until around November 20 with a top around 3384.68. We should finally end Intermediate wave 2 in mid-December (Dec 14-17) around 3024.09.
THE NUMBERS
Why those levels on those dates? Intermediate wave 2’s typically retrace the length of wave 1 by 34.49%. This would have wave 2 lasting about 48 trading days. Of those days, wave A normally comprises 37.55% (18 days), B is 25.20% (12 days), and C is 37.24% (18 days).
Intermediate wave 2 typically retraces the movement of wave 1 by about 45%. The minimum retracement over the past 88 years is 28.84%. I am conservatively sticking with a retracement around Fibonacci 38.2%. This would have wave 2 ending around 3021.44. Wave A typically accounts for 77.9% of the wave’s overall movement which would equate to a drop of 399.46 or a bottom around 3150.39. Wave B makes up 45.69% of the total or a rise of 234.29 points with a top around 3384.68. Finally wave C accounts for 70.32% of the larger wave which is a drop of 360.59 with the bottom around 3024.09.
REAL WORLD CAUSATION
Why the roller coaster? Lack of a clear winner tonight will likely cause some anxiety, additionally multiple states will not have all ballots counted until early next week. We may get the first glimpse of a projected winner after that but Congress must make it official and the lawyers on either side will likely be busy. Right now, Electoral College vote is set for December 14 and the lame duck Congress would certify shortly after. Once the winner is declared the jubilation will begin. I think I know who wins based on the trajectory of the market. We are about to start Intermediate wave 3 in Cycle wave 3 in Primary wave 1. This will lead to huge gains on continued cheap debt. The market is working on its day of reckoning when debt will be due. This date will be catastrophic, especially if we have another decade or more of cheap debt to rack up. Beyond 2030 will certainly see a prolonged great depression, but worrying about that now is unnecessary as the event is inevitable.
If the index moves above 3466 before it drops below 3234, my projections and even wave structure could be wrong. We shall see. Let me know where you think this mess is going. Thanks for reading.
US500- Get Ready-Thrust Upside Can Lead to Wave 3 DownsideFor Educational Purpose
Last Price- 3480 / 20:29 Hrs IST (Indian Standard Time) / 19th Oct2020
Wave (iv)- Penultimate wave -unfolding as a triangle then next wave should be the final thrust upside - only criteria is top @3588 should not be crossed for current wave count to be a valid count
Expecting
One push upside close to 3550/3570 to finish wave-(v) ( Crossing above 3506 highs)
Once wave-(v) done & holds below 3588 highs then we expect larger degree Wave-3 to unfold below 3588 tops
Wave 3 should travel 161% of Wave 1 distance downside giving us minimum target 3100 / 2950 later
We Should Hit ATHs Soon. Stimulus?It has been a very long time since Intermediate wave 5 failed to move above the peak of Intermediate wave 3. With it being 2020 and the world on fire, maybe this is the exception. IMHO I doubt it. Wave 3 peaked in early September at 3588.11. I project not only will our current wave 5 surpass that, but my projection has the top around 3639. This is not unrealistic. The crazier part of the forecast is this top occurring before election day, more specifically around October 29. This is not much time considering about 75 hours of trading will occur between my marked end of Minor wave 4 on October 15. Minor wave 3 moved 45 hours. The ratio of Minor wave 3 hours to the projected Minor wave 5 hours is 0.6. This is just slightly below the average and median relationships for these waves which is around 0.73-0.83. This could also mean Minor wave 5 lasts less than 75 hours, give or take a few trading days.
The target levels are still in line with those I projected months ago. I do not necessarily see a top above 3664, but we should get above 3610. The highest frequency of data points for a top are around 3639 so this is my official target.
A potential contributing factor to such a run over a short amount of time could be actual passage of stimulus by the Congress, or continued hopium that finally fails to deliver by election day.
On a side note I have Apple running up and above at least 133, possibly 140. When will both of these runups occur, around October 29. The close of trading on October 29 coincides with Apple's earnings call (my initial take is earnings may be much worse than expected). The drop I have occurring after this date will be massive (about 750 points on the S&P 500 Index). Likely contributors are election "surprise", delayed election results, legal fighting/winner uncertainty, failed stimulus and lame duck politicians, COVID 2.0/flu season, even more rioting, war in the world, or some other black swan.
But don't worry, the drop will be temporary. I am forecasting a bottom somewhere in Q1 of 2021 and then ATHs again. I will keep posting updates as more waves are completed (or I think they complete and scrape egg off my face).