Elliottwaveideas
GER 30 on the Way to new ATH?I would provide here some my view for the Dax for the next few Weeks. I think the picture speeks for itself.
Nasdaq in the next Bullrun?I would provide here some Options for the Nasdaq in the next few Weeks. I think the picture speeks for itself.
XAUUSD bullish scenario - Elliott Wave AnalysisXAUUSD short and medium term bullish.. in my opinion, XAUUSD will be break the peak level 2076 in the several month..
Daniel Agustinus, CEWA-M
IDX scenarioPekan depan akan menjadi pekan penentuan untuk IHSG, apakah akan melanjutkan bullish karena sudah berada di awal wave 3 ataukah akan terkoreksi lagi menuju level 4600-4700 untuk membentuk flat correction pada wave 2..
Daniel Agustinus, CEWA-M
USD/CHF - 2 Bullish & 1 Bearish Elliott Wave PatternsThe USD/CHF made two bullish Elliott waves, and it's making the third Elliott wave, but this one is bearish. This chart is all about learning to apply the Elliot wave pattern. The first bullish Elliott wave started on the 21st of October and ended on the 23rd of October . And the second bullish Elliott wave started on the 23rd of October and ended on the 4th of November .
Now, from the 4th of November, the bearish Elliot wave started, and The fifth wave is in the still making process. ABC correction is remaining .
If you like my technical analysis on the Elliott wave theory in this chart, then like, comment, and follow me.
No Election Winner For Weeks, No ProblemElection day is finally here. My wave projections have changed a little, but not for the worst. I previously suspected us to be near the end of a major Grand SuperCycle, but I no longer believe that is the case. I shifted some of my waves around after running multiple tests and found a different mapping of the waves provided for more consistent ratios of wave lengths and movements. I previously had the “COVID crash” ending at Cycle wave 4 and leaving us about 18 months to complete the final Cycle wave 5. I now have that bottom in March ending Cycle wave 2 after it began in September 2019. Furthermore, instead of Cycle wave 1 only lasting a few years (2009 to 2011), I now had it run 9 years (March 2009 to September 2019. This all means the major market crash I was projecting in 2022 is now pushed to 2030 or later. Also, we are in for a major market boom beginning this December.
But first, we must move down. The next few weeks will likely be difficult as we wait for results, legal challenges, and other circus acts. I believe we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 2. The top we find today, or likely found this morning will be the end of Minute wave 4 and we should find the end of Minute wave 5 / Minor wave A on Thursday around 3150.39. We should tick up for Minor wave B until around November 20 with a top around 3384.68. We should finally end Intermediate wave 2 in mid-December (Dec 14-17) around 3024.09.
THE NUMBERS
Why those levels on those dates? Intermediate wave 2’s typically retrace the length of wave 1 by 34.49%. This would have wave 2 lasting about 48 trading days. Of those days, wave A normally comprises 37.55% (18 days), B is 25.20% (12 days), and C is 37.24% (18 days).
Intermediate wave 2 typically retraces the movement of wave 1 by about 45%. The minimum retracement over the past 88 years is 28.84%. I am conservatively sticking with a retracement around Fibonacci 38.2%. This would have wave 2 ending around 3021.44. Wave A typically accounts for 77.9% of the wave’s overall movement which would equate to a drop of 399.46 or a bottom around 3150.39. Wave B makes up 45.69% of the total or a rise of 234.29 points with a top around 3384.68. Finally wave C accounts for 70.32% of the larger wave which is a drop of 360.59 with the bottom around 3024.09.
REAL WORLD CAUSATION
Why the roller coaster? Lack of a clear winner tonight will likely cause some anxiety, additionally multiple states will not have all ballots counted until early next week. We may get the first glimpse of a projected winner after that but Congress must make it official and the lawyers on either side will likely be busy. Right now, Electoral College vote is set for December 14 and the lame duck Congress would certify shortly after. Once the winner is declared the jubilation will begin. I think I know who wins based on the trajectory of the market. We are about to start Intermediate wave 3 in Cycle wave 3 in Primary wave 1. This will lead to huge gains on continued cheap debt. The market is working on its day of reckoning when debt will be due. This date will be catastrophic, especially if we have another decade or more of cheap debt to rack up. Beyond 2030 will certainly see a prolonged great depression, but worrying about that now is unnecessary as the event is inevitable.
If the index moves above 3466 before it drops below 3234, my projections and even wave structure could be wrong. We shall see. Let me know where you think this mess is going. Thanks for reading.
US500- Get Ready-Thrust Upside Can Lead to Wave 3 DownsideFor Educational Purpose
Last Price- 3480 / 20:29 Hrs IST (Indian Standard Time) / 19th Oct2020
Wave (iv)- Penultimate wave -unfolding as a triangle then next wave should be the final thrust upside - only criteria is top @3588 should not be crossed for current wave count to be a valid count
Expecting
One push upside close to 3550/3570 to finish wave-(v) ( Crossing above 3506 highs)
Once wave-(v) done & holds below 3588 highs then we expect larger degree Wave-3 to unfold below 3588 tops
Wave 3 should travel 161% of Wave 1 distance downside giving us minimum target 3100 / 2950 later
We Should Hit ATHs Soon. Stimulus?It has been a very long time since Intermediate wave 5 failed to move above the peak of Intermediate wave 3. With it being 2020 and the world on fire, maybe this is the exception. IMHO I doubt it. Wave 3 peaked in early September at 3588.11. I project not only will our current wave 5 surpass that, but my projection has the top around 3639. This is not unrealistic. The crazier part of the forecast is this top occurring before election day, more specifically around October 29. This is not much time considering about 75 hours of trading will occur between my marked end of Minor wave 4 on October 15. Minor wave 3 moved 45 hours. The ratio of Minor wave 3 hours to the projected Minor wave 5 hours is 0.6. This is just slightly below the average and median relationships for these waves which is around 0.73-0.83. This could also mean Minor wave 5 lasts less than 75 hours, give or take a few trading days.
The target levels are still in line with those I projected months ago. I do not necessarily see a top above 3664, but we should get above 3610. The highest frequency of data points for a top are around 3639 so this is my official target.
A potential contributing factor to such a run over a short amount of time could be actual passage of stimulus by the Congress, or continued hopium that finally fails to deliver by election day.
On a side note I have Apple running up and above at least 133, possibly 140. When will both of these runups occur, around October 29. The close of trading on October 29 coincides with Apple's earnings call (my initial take is earnings may be much worse than expected). The drop I have occurring after this date will be massive (about 750 points on the S&P 500 Index). Likely contributors are election "surprise", delayed election results, legal fighting/winner uncertainty, failed stimulus and lame duck politicians, COVID 2.0/flu season, even more rioting, war in the world, or some other black swan.
But don't worry, the drop will be temporary. I am forecasting a bottom somewhere in Q1 of 2021 and then ATHs again. I will keep posting updates as more waves are completed (or I think they complete and scrape egg off my face).
Are We finally ending Minor Wave 1 TodayThe data has been all over the place with the volatility.
Are we in Intermediate wave 5? I think so
Are we in Minor wave 2? I thought so, but the wave cycles were not clean.
Are we in Minor wave 1? This is my thought today.
If we really are in Minor wave 1, I assess we are at the end of it. The shock drop the other day on President Trump's tweet would make for a Minuette 4 instead of any larger wave. I assess this to be the case because it was took sharp and quick to have been a larger wave. With that said I am projecting the potential end of Minor wave 1 this morning. I have indicating the rough timeframe with the vertical dashed white line.
I have placed 4 potential reversal levels and the reasoning behind each level. The top level was an original top, but I do not see a solid reason for this to be the resistance as of now.
Sit back and enjoy. Projecting drop today through tomorrow?
The Finishing Moves For This WeekAfter putting up my initial buckshot for the next month, some movement has come into picture. I have Minor wave 1 ended on September 30 at 1400 which had it last just over 31 trading hours. This is 3 trading days earlier than my last forecast. This could mean I am wrong now, was previously, am still wrong, or most of my original forecast has slipped left and the marks will occur sooner than originally projected. A three day slide now brings the market top to the day of or day prior to Election Day 2020. This is absolutely possible with the likely unknowns set to occur November 3. We could be holding our breath for an outcome longer than we might have expected.
I have forecasted Minor wave 2's movement which are set to find its bottom before the end of this week. Minor wave 2's for the index tend to retrace the length of wave 1 by 33-68%. A 40% retracement is closer to the mean and average while remaining conservative. This conservative estimate would have Minor wave 2 last around 12 hours. Another significant statistic is that wave 1 is around 1.84 times the length of wave 2 which equates to roughly 14.5 hours for this wave 2. Lastly, Minor wave 1 tends to make up 22% of the length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 5) it resides inside. Likewise, wave 2 makes up around 9.5% of that larger wave. Based on wave 1's length and possible contribution to the larger wave, Intermediate wave 5 could last around 145 hours and wave 2 could be 13 of them (SIDENOTE: 145 hours ends on October 22). I am projecting Minor wave 2 to last around 13.4 hours.
The movement for Minor wave 2 seemed much less complex to locate. A fairly common wave 2 retracement is around 38% which is also near the common Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%. This could have wave 2 drop 69.96 points. Wave 1's movement in relation to the total movement of its larger Intermediate wave is around 45% while wave 2 is around 17%. This could mean Intermediate wave 5 gains around 409.13 points and Minor wave 2 only drops 69.55 (SIDENOTE: 409.13 points puts the top around 3618.58). Lastly, wave 1 tends to move 2.37 times wave 2 which could see a 77.68 point drop for Minor wave 2. I am forecasting a drop of roughly 70.56.
Based on the forecasts, I have further attempted to identify the movement of Minute waves A, B, and C. Wave A tends to make up 35.54% of the larger wave's movement while B makes up 28.13% and C is 37.24%. Wave A tends to move 73.86% of the overall move, while B reverses course for 44.60% and C is 67.83%. I have placed the A, B, and 2 (Minor wave C) roughly when and where the waves should change course. This is setting up for a truly great entry point to "buy the dip."
Minor wave 3 begins next week and could make for a few weeks of major gains. The catalyst? COVID stimulus is not dead yet and could find an agreement before Congressional recess this weekend or early next week.
The Buckshot Projection Of Movement To Election DayThe next quick bear market is in the cards. However, the run to new all time highs will not make the next bear market hurt as much. This projection is an update to one previously posted the other day which accounts for Intermediate wave 4 ending on September 24.
The specifics of each plotted point is based on the next top occurring on November 5 and lasting 30 trading days. Intermediate wave 3 lasted 46 days, and therefore this fifth Intermediate wave cannot surpass 46 days in length per the theory's guidelines. I will continue to watch each Minor wave and adjust this scatter plot accordingly.
Primary wave 1 will likely end around election day. I currently have the top after the day itself (November 3). I still see a significant decline to follow. This could do with the election's result and presumed impact to the market in the future. I do see an even stronger rebound when the bottom is attained during Q1 of 2021.
Path to NEW ATHs Before Election DayThis is the estimated track to election day. The downside should be behind us. Each Minor wave is based on its average make-up of the larger wave it is apart of. Each Minute wave inside of the Minors is the same concept. I will continue to publish and adjust as we complete each wave.
This is just the initial blueprint.
Time to finish this downtrend and start move for ATHsWith more data available, I am further homing in on the next reversal point and end of Intermediate wave 4. Due to prior projections and EW guideline violations, this forecast should finally find the end. It looks like Minor waves A and B are both completed. I am still projecting a gain early on Monday, but further downward movement during most of the week. All told I am expecting this week to move down at least 209 points from Friday’s close to the low point of this week. This would equate to a 6.31% drop, during the remainder of Minor wave C if it occurred. Minor wave A dropped 7.74% in 40 hours of trading at the beginning of September. This would see Minor wave C dropping 9.30% in roughly 40 trading hours.
The information below is slightly different from a similar forecast I provided earlier this month which at the time assessed Minor wave A to have lasted 40 trading hours, and waves B and C were estimations based on those 40 hours of movement.
What Minor wave A did:
It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64 points. The rise over run (R/R) of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. On average, A waves tend to make up 36% of the larger wave it resides in (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance). This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 102 trading hours. At that time of this writing, Intermediate wave 4 is at least 75 hours long with additional time to go.
What Minor wave B did:
It lasted 22 trading hours (3 trading days) and gained 118.45 points. The rise over run of this was a gain was approximately 5.384 points per hour. On average, B waves tend to make up 21% of the larger wave they reside inside. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 102 trading hours. This conforms with wave A’s typical makeup of the larger wave as well.
MINOR WAVE C Estimations:
Length: Wave C should last around 40 hours. This is based on wave A making up about 39.22% of the larger wave and wave B providing 21.57% of the larger wave. This would leave wave C to make up the remaining 39.22%, which is also 40 hours. On average, waves A and C in the same wave are almost equal in length. This would also tie the maximum move that has occurred during specific Intermediate and Minor waves (Intermediate wave 4, Minor wave C) in the history of the S&P 500.
Movement: On average, the typical relationship of movement between A and C waves is 0.8632 which would equate to a drop around 3107. Wave B’s retracement of wave A’s movement is typically 0.37909 that of wave C’s extension of wave A’ s movement. This would equate to a drop around 3116.46.
The 5 wave down pattern estimations are based on Minor wave C moving 40 hours and down to roughly 318.92 from the end of Minor wave B. All estimates are based on the average of the average and median for each item.
Wave 1 typically lasts 27.85% of the larger wave it resides in. Wave 2 is around 10.80%, 3 is 36.45%, 4 is 6.33%, and 5 is 17.64%. Wave 1 typically moves 41.58% of the overall larger wave’s movement. Wave 2 is 19%, 3 is 56.5%, 4 is 22.22%, and 5 is 43.69%. This means wave 1 could last 11 hours and drop 132.61 points. Wave 2 could rise 60.59 points over 4 hours. Wave 3 could drop 180.19 points over 15 hours. Wave 4 could rise 70.86 points over 2 hours, and wave 5 could drop 139.34 points over 8 hours. This would have the ultimate bottom around 1230 on September 24 near 3108.24.
Before trading closed on Friday, wave 1 was likely completed. Even though the estimate was for wave 1 was a drop to 132.61 over 11 hours, it appears wave 1 found a bottom at 3292.40 (a drop of 136.52) over 13 hours which is 2 hours longer than forecasted. This could slide all of the following waves to the right by 2 hours. This could mean the market opens high or hits an early morning high around 3350, or wave 2 has already completed and the next 2 days will be down significantly.
Let’s get ready for another week of volatility. My guess is another down week. I still think we will see all-time highs in October before a nice 700+ point plunge beginning in November
