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Elliottwaveideas

Time to finish this downtrend and start move for ATHsWith more data available, I am further homing in on the next reversal point and end of Intermediate wave 4. Due to prior projections and EW guideline violations, this forecast should finally find the end. It looks like Minor waves A and B are both completed. I am still projecting a gain early on Monday, but further downward movement during most of the week. All told I am expecting this week to move down at least 209 points from Friday’s close to the low point of this week. This would equate to a 6.31% drop, during the remainder of Minor wave C if it occurred. Minor wave A dropped 7.74% in 40 hours of trading at the beginning of September. This would see Minor wave C dropping 9.30% in roughly 40 trading hours. The information below is slightly different from a similar forecast I provided earlier this month which at the time assessed Minor wave A to have lasted 40 trading hours, and waves B and C were estimations based on those 40 hours of movement. What Minor wave A did: It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64 points. The rise over run (R/R) of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. On average, A waves tend to make up 36% of the larger wave it resides in (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance). This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 102 trading hours. At that time of this writing, Intermediate wave 4 is at least 75 hours long with additional time to go. What Minor wave B did: It lasted 22 trading hours (3 trading days) and gained 118.45 points. The rise over run of this was a gain was approximately 5.384 points per hour. On average, B waves tend to make up 21% of the larger wave they reside inside. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 102 trading hours. This conforms with wave A’s typical makeup of the larger wave as well. MINOR WAVE C Estimations: Length: Wave C should last around 40 hours. This is based on wave A making up about 39.22% of the larger wave and wave B providing 21.57% of the larger wave. This would leave wave C to make up the remaining 39.22%, which is also 40 hours. On average, waves A and C in the same wave are almost equal in length. This would also tie the maximum move that has occurred during specific Intermediate and Minor waves (Intermediate wave 4, Minor wave C) in the history of the S&P 500. Movement: On average, the typical relationship of movement between A and C waves is 0.8632 which would equate to a drop around 3107. Wave B’s retracement of wave A’s movement is typically 0.37909 that of wave C’s extension of wave A’ s movement. This would equate to a drop around 3116.46. The 5 wave down pattern estimations are based on Minor wave C moving 40 hours and down to roughly 318.92 from the end of Minor wave B. All estimates are based on the average of the average and median for each item. Wave 1 typically lasts 27.85% of the larger wave it resides in. Wave 2 is around 10.80%, 3 is 36.45%, 4 is 6.33%, and 5 is 17.64%. Wave 1 typically moves 41.58% of the overall larger wave’s movement. Wave 2 is 19%, 3 is 56.5%, 4 is 22.22%, and 5 is 43.69%. This means wave 1 could last 11 hours and drop 132.61 points. Wave 2 could rise 60.59 points over 4 hours. Wave 3 could drop 180.19 points over 15 hours. Wave 4 could rise 70.86 points over 2 hours, and wave 5 could drop 139.34 points over 8 hours. This would have the ultimate bottom around 1230 on September 24 near 3108.24. Before trading closed on Friday, wave 1 was likely completed. Even though the estimate was for wave 1 was a drop to 132.61 over 11 hours, it appears wave 1 found a bottom at 3292.40 (a drop of 136.52) over 13 hours which is 2 hours longer than forecasted. This could slide all of the following waves to the right by 2 hours. This could mean the market opens high or hits an early morning high around 3350, or wave 2 has already completed and the next 2 days will be down significantly. Let’s get ready for another week of volatility. My guess is another down week. I still think we will see all-time highs in October before a nice 700+ point plunge beginning in November
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
Can we gain 2.2% on FridayLooks like at least one more volatile day. This week has not completed gone as planned but it has been close. I still think we have to finish out Minor wave B and this is possible in the early afternoon. Now while this is possible, finishing up at the level my program has projected might be a stretch. I now have 3 possible target zones for B's finish. The most accurate zone says we could gain 70 points at the height of trading tomorrow. This is based off of us currently trading in Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave C in Minor wave B. Time to watch the roller coaster play out. If this is accurate, I do expect the final Minor wave (C) to take us below 3310. If you like options, some 1-3 week out puts could be interesting. Happy hunting!
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
4
This is how the week should play out.My initial projection from last weekend had Minor Wave B ending by the lunch hour on September 17. With more data, my projection has moved to the right a bit. It looks like the Fed press conference ending Minute wave A and we are in the early stages of Minute wave B. Fortunately it should be short lived. I project this to end with a bottom around 3360 with about 3 hours left to trade on September 17. Based on hitting that specific mark, I am projecting Minute wave C and ultimately Minor wave B to end around 3470 about one day later. I am still projecting the next down swing to begin before the week ends. Another looser projection is the end of Minor wave B based solely on Minor wave A's movement. This has Minor wave B ending near the close of trade on September 17. I no longer assess this spot to be the end. I will write again this weekend, but I am still bearish for the next two weeks before we are ready to test the ATH in mid to late October. Follow and stay tuned for more!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
7
Bulls Will Rush In This Week, But Don't Be FooledBased on the last projection, Intermediate wave 4 should be over. The losses of the past week did move into my projected bottom. However, it does not appear a full 3 wave (ABC) cycle occurred. It only looks like the A wave is now complete. I have adjusted my model to account for this and the projections of the next movements are below. I expect gains most or all of this week and more declines through mid to the end of next week. The bottom should occur around next Friday or the final Monday in September. What wave A did: It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64. The rise over run of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. Wave A tends to make up 39% on average of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance) it makes up. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 101 trading hours. Likewise, wave A tends to move 74.6% of Intermediate wave 4’s total move. This means Intermediate wave 4 could drop 372.17 points from top to bottom. This does not mean a straight drop, which will be further illustrated with this week’s projected gains and wave B. Wave B Length In determining how far wave B will move, I have looked at how all B waves for the S&P 500’s Grand Supercycle wave 1 has moved over its 85+ year history. I have used multiple estimations and calculates to narrow down B’s length. B waves tend to last 75% the length of their A counterpart. This means B could last around 30 hours. A waves tend to last 1.32 times the length of B waves. This means B could last around 30.3 hours. Also, A’s makeup of the larger wave is 1.54 times that of wave B. With wave A projected to makeup 39% of the move, this could have wave B last 29.5% of the overall move which equally equates to 29.8 hours. Finally, B waves tend to make up around 25% of the larger wave’s movement. If A is now projected to last around 101 hours. Wave B could last around 25 hours. Based on all of these estimations, I am forecasting Wave B to last around 29-30 hours. This will have it peak around the afternoon on September 17. Wave B Point Move B waves tend to retrace about 60% of wave A’s movement. This could see B rise about 166 points. A’s move tends to be 1.635 times larger than wave B. This could see B gain 169 points total. Wave A’s contribution to the overall larger wave’s (Intermediate wave 4) is typically 1.68 times larger than wave B. If A tends to rise 74.6% of this overall movement (currently projected to be 372.17), then B could makeup 44.4% of the larger wave’s movement which means B could rise 165 points . Separately, Wave B tends to makeup 44% of the larger wave’s movement which is very much inline with the last data point. This could see wave B last 163 points. Finally, on average, wave A’s rise over run is roughly equal (1.00000) to that of wave B. This could mean wave B rises 6.941 points per hour over the course of its length. This does not mean it will rise 6.941 points perfectly ever hour without larger gains or losses in between. Due to my projection of wave B lasting around 29.5 hours and considering this rise over run data point, wave B could gain up to 204.7595 points. The range of potential movement for wave B was tight (163-169) before considering the rise over run data point. My projection for wave B’s peak is around 3477.97 (167.5 point gain). Wave C I will project wave C’s move and length based off of the finalized wave A data and projected wave B data. Wave B’s full data would be 29.5 hours long and 167.5 point gain. This projection would be a rise over run of 5.678 points per hour. Wave B hypothetically lasted 73.75% of wave A’s length (40 hours) and retraced 60.32% of wave A’s movement (277.64). Wave C Length Wave C tends to last 37.02% of the larger wave length. If the larger wave is projected to last 101 hours, wave C would make up around 37 of those hours. Wave C tends to last 107% of wave A’s length. Wave C could last 42.8 hours. A tends to last 1.24 longer than wave C. Wave C could last 32 hours. A’s percentage of the larger wave’s length tends to be around 0.86 of that of C. If A is around 39% of the total length, C would be around 45.34% or last 45.8 hours. Wave B’s length is typically 0.62 times the length of wave C. Wave C could last 47.5 hours. B’s retracement of A’s length is 0.53 times that of C. This could mean wave C extends 139.15% of wave A’s length or last 55.7 hours. B’s portion of the larger wave is typically 0.53 times the size of C’s contribution. This means wave C could make up 54.71% of the larger wave or last 55.3 hours. Considering all of these data points. I currently forecast wave C last approximately 44.5 hours to end around the morning of September 28, 2020. Wave C Point Move Wave C tends to makeup 68% of the larger wave’s movement. If the larger wave meets the forecast of 372.17, wave C could drop 253 points. Wave C typically extends Wave A’s movement by 138.2% (ironically a key Fibonacci number) which would be a 383 point drop. Wave A tends to move 0.85 times that of wave C equating to a 326.635 point drop. Wave A’s portion of the larger wave tends to be 0.92 of C which would make C 81.08% of the larger wave’s move equaling 301.75 points. Wave B tends to move 0.47 that of wave C which would be a wave C drop of 356.38 points. B’s retracement of wave A in relation to C’s extension of wave A is 0.33. This could see C extend 182.79% of wave A’s move or a drop of 507.5 points. Wave B’s move % of the larger wave is typically 0.51 times that of wave C. This could mean wave C makes up 86.27% of the Intermediate wave 4 drop or a wave C contribution of 321.07 points. Wave A’s rise/run is 0.91 times that of wave C. C’s rise/run could be 7.6274 point loss per hour. At 44.5 hours, wave C could drop 335.61 points. Wave B’s rise/run is 1.05 times that of C. C’s rise/run could be 5.4076 points lost per hour equating to a total drop of 243.68 points. The chance of calculating total wave C point loss before the conclusion of wave B is a very rough estimation. This projection will likely be much more refined when I write next weekend. For now, I project C to drop around 350-383 points which is around 3110. Conclusion All told, I have provided windows and estimates for tops and bottoms for waves B and C. I am bullish until early 2022 and still foresee a steady 4-6 month drop beginning around the end of October early November. I would assess this has something to do with the U.S. election results or lack thereof due to ‘vote counting complications.’
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
17
One week left for bears before moonshotEven though the downturn started a few days later than planned, it still met the expected drop. Wave A could have occurred until the end of trading on Friday, but it may have ended Friday morning at 1030. The red down arrows and one green up arrow are based on Intermediate Wave 3 lasting 46 days and with its move extending beyond Intermediate Wave 1's movement by 134.09%. These arrows are a rough projection of movement. There length may not line up perfectly but points moved are typically much more accurate. There are two possible tracks for the week. Option 1: Wave A may be in the early stages and have only completed wave 2 of wave A. This would drive the index down drastically at some point this week, before a bounce up and then more downward movement possibly with a bottom next week. A significant upward wave B would need to occur before the end of next week and then another week or too of significant drops until wave C finds its bottom. THIS COURSE IS UNLIKELY. I assess the next one to be most likely. Option 2: Wave A did in fact complete itself at 1030 Friday. This would mean it lasted roughly 18 30-minute bars instead of the projected 29. The projected top to bottom movement of Wave A was 246.25 versus the actual of 238.48. Wave B's projected move was 145.44 over 20 30-minute bars. With wave B's likely end, it only lasted 9 bars and climbed 105.51. Based on my analysis, B waves typically last around 75% the length of their wave As. This B wave would be half of that, which is not abnormal, but could mean wave B moves a little higher over the first 2 hours of trading on Tuesday. Wave C was initially projected to drop 223.11 over 33 bars. Wave C can still do this, especially if wave B moves up toward 3487 early on Tuesday. If wave B does not find a new top by 1130 Tuesday, wave C could be in full force. With wave B starting early by 22 30-minute bars, wave C could end early by 22 bars or more. The earliest end for wave C is 1030 Thursday. If wave B continues for a few more bars, wave C should find a solid bottom before 1430 Friday. It might be a little odd to sell during the course of a week, albeit it a shortened week, just to come off the bottom for the final 90 minutes of the week. A more likely action would be wave C's bottom earlier in the day Friday or the following Monday. Long-term projection is still on track for a rise to new all-time highs before mid-October, followed by 700-800 point decline through Mach 2021, and a massive rise to new all-time highs again before finally crashing in early 2022. We will see what happens. Keep checking back as we track this wild ride to the end in early 2022.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8
Market moves down for 2 weeksWith fresh stock splits, tightening election polls, eviction madness about to start, more schools open, the Fed, Congressional inaction, COVID positivity rates ready to climb, and maybe football, The first 2 weeks in September will bump lower. I am not using those events to justify the analysis but the catalyst could be in there somewhere. I am using enhanced Elliott Wave analysis for the following modeling and projections. Intermediate wave 3 was strong, but was set to end. Initial forecast was for it to last around 42 days, it made it to 43 on Friday. Intermediate wave 4 should last around 7-13 trading days. My specific target is 10.1 days based on my models. Wave A typically lasts 39% of the the overall length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4). Wave B typically lasts 25%, and wave C is 37%. The price drop could be greater than 225 points, but my specific forecast is a drop to around 3310 or 199.23 points from the ATH. Wave A typically moves 74.5% of the overall drop. Wave B typically gains 45% points of the overall drop and wave C drops about 67%. All told. I have wave A lasting about 3.9 days and dropping 149 points. Wave B could gain for 2.5 days and claw back 90 points before wave C drops 134 points over 3.7 days. I have placed all of this on a 2 hour chart in order to track the movement better. I am overall long for now, but will be short through September 11, 2020.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
12
Likely 700 point drop looming, but this is very bullishI continue to run more models. My models are like the cones of uncertainty when forecasting hurricanes. The more data that comes in changes the cone. In this case, this chart is completely different from the one 2 weeks ago. That one saw the end of Grand Supercycle 1, this one still has us in the final Cycle wave 5. This model also projects Grand Supercycle wave 1 will not end until early-mid 2022, but more will be published on that later. My prior model was not completely wrong as the major crash is looming, it is now just delayed for another 18 months or so. This chart is using similar models to project Intermediate waves 3, 4, & 5 (which are annotated in the white text) and another one to project Primary waves 1 & 2. The end location for Intermediate wave 3 is based on 110 data points. It is even possible this wave 3 ended with the close of trading yesterday which could start a 150-200 point drop over the next 7-13 days. Intermediate wave 4's end dates and points are separately based on 150 data points. Wave 4's have an average and median drop of around 41% the entire movement of wave 3. Wave 4 will give way to a nice jump slated to top right before election day in the U.S. Intermediate wave 5 is based off of 190 data points and tends to be the most accurate in all of the models I run. The end of Intermediate wave 5 is also the end of Primary wave 1. There is some overlap in the projects for the intermediate and primary waves. The most accurate projections are for the intermediate waves due to the amount of available data to determine those dates and price levels. The yellow text primary waves are larger targets because less data was used to obtain them. The biggest data points for the yellow primary waves comes from one main area. The fifth wave typically accounts for 15-20% of the bigger wavelength (with a consistent average & median around 18%). Theoretically Cycle wave 5 will last around 18% of Supercycle wave 5's length. 18% of projected Supercycle wave 5 is 610 trading days. 15% is 491 trading days. My current projection has Supercycle wave 5 ending (which is also the end of Cycle wave 5) in 2022. I will go into greater detail about these points in the future. The primary waves were calculated solely based on the 491-610 trading day length of Cycle wave 5. Each wave tends last a similar ratio to the larger wave it trades inside. This is how the yellow text was calculated. Wave 1's tend to last ~29% of the larger wave, 2 is ~12%, 3 is ~37%, 4 is ~5%, and 5 is ~17%. These values are not found in any book, they are from nonstop studies of millions of data points my programs have been running. The 700 point drop in the title speaks of my current projection from the end of Intermediate wave 5 / Primary wave 1 right before election day and through the first quarter of 2021. My website will go into much greater detail about the drop and whys. Leave comments if this analysis was helpful and thanks for reading.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
The Greatest Depression In Our Lifetime Is Here According to..The stock market is on the verge of an epic collapse set to occur now. The greatest depression in global economies that any of us have or will see is here according to this accurate model. My 'crystal ball' is not based on the quarantined talking heads filling air time with circular-referenced positivity in an utterly negative market. Some loyal readers are wondering why I have not publicly published in more than a year, and no it was not a jail sentence. Up until May 2019, I had been manually running and tweaking an algorithm based on Elliott Wave Theory. I ran my algorithm and model in June 2019 which forecasted the beginning of a major market crash beginning in the first quarter of 2020. You can find the public mention of it at After running the model and seeing what was to come, I needed to find a better way of running models in the future that is quicker. I spent the last year learning how to code and write computer programs. I knew there was a learning curve and it would take time, but I would be able to get much more work done in the future with the investment of time now. Previously, I manually studied about 5 stocks and ETFs at a time, and each one required hours of work and crunching numbers through Excel and Google Sheets. Now I am running algorithms against hundreds in a matter of minutes. My hiatus from public market forecasts has been worth it. Now back to what you care about, the looming market drop. My program calculated every wave according to my interpretation of Elliott Wave Theory for the S&P 500 dating back to June 1, 1932. This is the estimated date that the index began its epic 5-part Grand Supercycle Wave 1. I reference waves and durations based off of the chart on my website which is also floating around on the internet. Grand Supercycle 1 is comprised of 5 Supercycle waves which tend to last between 40-70 years, but there is no concrete duration. The cycle that I have charted has lasted approximately 21,671 trading days from June 1932 until February 19, 2020 which is nearly 88 years. These 5 completed waves have only ended Grand Supercycle 1 meaning we have just entered Grand Supercycle 2, which is a significant and lengthy correction wave. On average, corrective number 2 waves last about 16 years from top to bottom and are reflected in a 3 wave ABC pattern. Wave A (comprised of 5 waves) goes down, wave B (3 waves) goes up, and the final wave C (5 waves) hits the bottom. We are in the very early stages of wave A slated to take the market and index down for 4-6 years, which I cover potential causes below. Wave B is projected to rise over 4-8 years possibly creating a new all-time high (ATH) in the index before Wave C finally hits the bottom in 4-12 years after B ends. Although the index has charged hard and nearly recouped all losses observed during the early COVID-related shutdowns, the steam is gone. This 'V-shaped recovery' has been more mythical than actual recovery. The index is back to where it was before jobs were lost, schools were closed (forcing some parents to quit their jobs or find new childcare expenses), restaurants operate at half capacity or less, tourism died, travel was restricted across states, nations, and borders. The market says everything is fine, but the hidden reality is things have been propped up to appear great again on the surface. I input all of the data from the last 88 years into my program to reveal where the next market top will occur from the March 2020 lows. I currently have the index in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 1 of Supercycle wave A of Grand Supercycle wave 2. This means the end of Minor wave C will also end Intermediate wave 2 and beginning a new chapter down. The data from the minor waves were entered into the program to find reversal points. Minor wave A lasted 53 trading days and moved 1041.27 points. Minor wave B lasted 15 trading days and shed 233.39 points. As of the close of trading on August 11, 2020, Minor wave C has lasted 30 days having seen a maximum upward move of 381.27 points. My program returned 110 market tops and 110 reversal dates. I currently have the market topping between August 7, 2020 (Minor wave C day 28) and September 10, 2020 (Minor wave C day 51). This range was determined by the following chart of potential lengths of Minor wave C. The specific reversal levels and reasons for reversal are found on my website mentioned in the signature block below.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
13