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S&P500 has started forming wave E of Triangle in 4 Primary waveSP:SPX Hello traders I've counted wave at SPX and I suppose that now Intermediate wave E inside 4 primary wave has started to forming itself in this month I calculate proportions between 1 and 3 Primary waves (Green color) and let's see what I got: 1 Primary wave: Begin 666.8$ ending 1363.6$ 1363.6 - 666.8 = 696.8$ Total 696.8 / 666.8 = 104.4% Total 3 Primary wave: Begin 1074.8$ Ending 2872.9$ 2872.9 - 1074.8 = 1798.1$ Total 1798.1 / 1074.8 = 167.4% Total Fibo proportions between 1 and 3 Primary waves: 1. Amount propotions 1 wave 696.8 * 2.618 = 1824.2 3 wave equal 1798.1 Fibo harmony :) 3 wave 1798.1 * 0.382 = 686.9 1 wave equal 696.8 again Fibo harmony :) 2. Percentage 1 wave 104.4% * 1.618 = 168.9% 3 wave equal 167.4 % Fibo Harmony :) 3 wave 167.4% * 0.618 = 103.4% 1 wave equal 104.4 % again Fibo harmony :) Such incredible Fibo harmony in proportions between waves shown me that I have deternined ending of 3 Primary wave absolutely correct and now 4th Primary is forming itself on the Chart. In according with Elliott's waves theory the most often structure of 4th wave in Cycle is Triangle and I suppose that intermediate waves A, B, C and D of triangle are completed already and in this month the Wave E has started. I think that the target of wave E is 2186$, cause if we put Fibo retracement on 3 primary wave 38.2% will be exactly in this area and trend line between minimums of waves A and D lead us to the same area, so I'm pretty sure that there is endig of 4th Primary wave and begining of 5th Primary. So i supose that bearish market will continue till September or October of 2019 and will found its bottom between 2150$ and 2200$ at S&P500 But may be I'm wrong who knows only time will shows us Wish good profits for everyone! :) I hope my forecast will help to someone
SP:SPXShort
by Yaro7lav
1
Elliott Wave View: An Impulsive Rally in Bausch Health (BHC)Elliott Wave View in Bausch Health (BHC) suggests the rally from June 4 low (20.28) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20.28, wave (1) ended at 21.9 and wave (2) pullback ended at 20.8. The stock then resumes the rally higher in wave (3) towards 25.85, and wave (4) pullback ended at 24.61. Finally, the stock ended wave (5) of ((1)) at 25.9. The stock is now correcting cycle from June 4 low within wave ((2)). Wave ((2)) pullback should unfold in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. The current pullback is proposed to unfold as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 25.9, wave (A) ended at 24.64 as a diagonal structure. Expect a bounce in wave (B) then another leg lower in wave (C) as another 5 waves before wave ((2)) pullback is complete. We don’t like selling the stock and expect dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at June 4 low (20.28) stays intact.
NYSE:BHC
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day. The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart. The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it). The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04. I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year. This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
Rare Engulfing Pattern To Dictate Future Movement For S&P500March 4, 2019 saw an engulfing pattern in the candlestick chart for the S&P 500 . Engulfing patterns are not rare, but one that engulfs the the price range for the prior 6 trading sessions is something to understand. I went back and found this same event (engulfing a minimum of 6 prior trading sessions) has occurred in the market only 15 times in the last 40 years. There are roughly 252 trading days in a year. Multiply that by 40 years and there have been roughly 10,080 trading days in the last 40 years. The event has occurred 0.149% over the studied time frame. This would qualify as very rare as defined by the i-base.info website. Okay so this particular pattern is very rare, but why does it matter? Below are the charts for the most 10 most recent occurrences of this pattern. The critical information in these 10 prior instances are: 1. The index's direction prior to the pattern 2. The direction of the first break from the pattern's range The full-analysis is available at my website. The next few days will dictate the accuracy of my analysis July 2017 December 2013 and January 2014 April 2011 January 2005 - January 2007 January 2001 May 1997 - May 1993 -
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
More Room For Markets To Drop Says S&P 500 Historical DataI have classified the current downturn as a Primary wave 2. This should be an ABC corrective wave. These waves last half the length of time that Primary wave 1 did. All my acquired data dates back to 1932 where I believe our current market Grand Supercycle run began. Based on primary wave 1 lasting 86 days, wave 2 could last around 43 trading days from May 1, 2019 which is somewhere around the July 4 holiday. Primary wave 2's retracement of wave 1 is also interesting. The minimum retracement a Primary wave 2 has occurred in nearly 85 years is 32.81% of wave 1. This means the bottom of the current pullback will likely see the index fall 199.34 points at a minimum from the May 1 high of 2954.13. These means the index should fall to at least 2754.79. The average and median retracements are 50.49% and 48.57% respectively. Based on these figures, the pullback could end between 2659.04 and 2647.38. What is the largest retracement for a wave 2? That would be 86.64% which would bring the market to 2427.75. Hopefully, this level remains well out of play for now. Another unique metric is that Primary Wave 1 typically moves 2.06 times more than Primary wave 2. Another potential level of interest would be 2659.20 (which is close to the aforementioned 2659.04). Intermediate wave A of this Primary wave 2 could last around 16 trading days from May 1. This is based on all 29 Intermediate A waves over the past 85 years for this index. Waves A and C roughly last 38% of the entire Primary wave they are located inside of. Based on the projection the Primary wave will last around 43 trading days, this means waves A and C could last 16 days each and the internal corrective wave B (which will move the index up) would last the remaining 11 days. These are all based on medians and averages, but they provide a timeframe in which to spot reversal activity. Intermediate wave A's movement averages 74% of the entire Primary wave's movement. I currently project the bottom of the primary wave to occur between 2659.04 and 2754.79. 74% of these total moves would have wave A end around 2806.62, 2735.76, or 2727.13 by May 22, 2019. Based on this data, the index is set to fall through the next two weeks at a minimum. Intermediate wave B tends to retrace wave A's movement by 60%. This means the index could bounce back up to a range of 2863.33 and 2895.13. After this rise, we shall fall to the bottom and end of Primary wave 2. A greater opportunity to sell call options could be for action above 2900 (or ~290 on the SPY ) near the end of Intermediate wave B. We will likely wait a few months before we move about 2900 again and take out the all time highs. So what does this all mean? Between the close on May 10, 2019 and around July 4, 2019, the index could drop between 4.39% and 7.72%. A caveat to this is the Intermediate wave B which will bring the index up before it settles at its next bottom between 2659 and 2755. All of this information is based on historical statistics and is not a guarantee to be an accurate barometer of future movement. Please share and feel free to respond with your ideas.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
The 2019 Recession vs. 2008I have marked roughly were I believe today's market is in relation to the 'Great Financial Crisis of 2008'. Each chart depicts: A blue star for a top in the market Followed by a low - marked with the number 1 Followed by the final market top - marked with the number 2 Followed by the first bottom of declines - marked with the number 3 And today's current position is the pinkish circle. If this is true, the next will occur soon and surpass the prior lows marked with the number 3. In the current case these would be the December 24th lows. It took about 352 trading days from top to bottom in 2007-2009 in which the market lost 57% of its value. I only marked a 50% loss on today's chart because it would be much more costly if it occurred and I drew out the highlight for roughly 350 days from the market highs on September 21, 2018. Mark Twain is rumored to have said, "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." Do these charts rhyme? Are they coincidence? Or nothing close? Let me know what you think!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Is The Quad Top in the Market The Ultimate Sell Signal AgainI wrote about the coming Quad Top resistance point a few days ago (linked to this Idea). I said it would present itself within the next few days and it has done so today. The question is what will occur over the next few days? We have also hit the 200 day SMA again (we bounced off it a week ago). Will we push higher through this too. As my previous idea stated. The fourth time this Quad Top resistance has been met on the 5 occasions since 2000, the market has declined sharply. We are also fighting to stay above the 200 SMA again. Failure to stay above these levels in the next 3-5 days could confirm a steep decline is in the offing. We will see what happens, but I am positioned for the decline based on history, the end of earnings season, and zero trade deal ratifications in sight. Please share your thoughts!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
The Quad Tops Signal Steep Declines AheadThere have been 5 occurrences of quad tops in the S&P 500 since 2000. Each top bounced off a resistance trend line four times. The fourth bounce resulted in steep declines for the index. The index is about to test this theory within the next 3-7 trading days as it nears the trend line on the chart above. Could it be a coincidence? Sure, but what is keeping this market from pushing through it now that earnings are over, the Fed is sitting on their hands, Congress is yet to pass the USMCA (NAFTA 2.0), and a China deal is most likely months away (if it happens at all)? On the positive side for technicals, we finally moved above the 100 DMA which has not happen in months, but the 200 DMA is the next test (also likely to occur within next 1-3 trading days). The break of the 100 DMA could be the real deal or a Bull Trap and a break of the 200 could be the same. The technicals are not encouraging until we move clearly above the 100, 200 and the quad top trend line for the bulls. This is the quad tops between 2000 and 2015. The first is in Red and the second is in Orange. The next one is below with the green arrows between 2010 and 2018. The final two are in Blue and Yellow below from 2016 to the present. The red on here is the same as the red on the main chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
7
Did You Really Think VIX Will Remain Under 20 For Long?As we continue the declines from the top (2490.91 on September 21, 2018), we are ready to test and re-take the Christmas Eve lows. This market is the in the earliest stages of the meltdown. TV pundits keep telling you to "buy this dip," but don't be caught off guard. Based on the moves in our current intermediate wave down, we will see within a few days if wave 4 indeed ended on January 10, 2019. If that high is not retaken, I expect the market to continue down to the polygons on the chart. The green box will be the most likely bottom for the end of Primary wave 3. Don't fool yourself, this is only the half-way point of Cycle Wave 1 (there will be 5 of them) in Supercycle wave A which will be an ABC corrective wave. History says this is only the beginning. If the rest of the world is starting to believe a global recession is in the offing, just wait until the realize it is here. Then it will be too late. I have calculated 356 data points of Grand Supercycle Wave 1 (which just finished in September) that dated back to 1932. We are just entering Grand Supercycle Wave 2 which is a correction that has not been seen before. Hopefully I am wrong and this is a bump in the road as the pundits believe, but what if I am right (like I have been)?
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
This is How The S&P 500 Index Will RallyI saw the drop that just happened prior to it occurring. I did not see it dropping so quickly and well beyond typical intermediate wave 4s. With this most recent retracement covering 92% of all of wave 3's gains, it is time for the final uptrend to begin. Intermediate wave 3 took over 50 days to gain what intermediate wave 4 nearly lost in 14. My final analysis has the index regaining around 300 points in 25 trading days. This seems nearly impossible, but so was the recent decline. I have identified 15 possible levels for the top to occur. These levels are based on Fibonacci extensions, correlations to the other intermediate waves, and historical movement of the index since the beginning. The levels of interest are below. The bolded numbers represent the most likely top in my estimate. 2887.05 2911.46 2936.33 2948.32 2957.69 2967.80 2999.66 3034.38 3036.00 3065.17 3065.37 3094.74 3131.08 3145.97 3383.19 The full analysis is available at my site for free along with other data.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
4
Is This Decline A Clue To Something GreaterIntermediate wave 3 has lasted 67 trading days, but the latest bull run appears ready for a break. I have conducted derivative analysis on all of the movement in this super cycle wave 3 to identify where the next bottom will occur. It appears set to occur by October 24, 2018. The following are potential turning points for this bottom. I have bolded the most likely levels: 2878.28 2846.32 2844.90 2841.29 2840.19 2830.43 2813.89 2809.40 2778.61 The full analysis is free on my site.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
7
Netflix Elliott Wave View: Dips Expected To Remain SupportedGood Afternoon Traders, NFLX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the pullback to $335.67 low ended blue wave (2) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a Flat correction. Where red wave B bounce ended in 3 swings at $374.09 high. Down from there, red wave C unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure. And the initial decline to $360.01 low ended black wave ((i)). Up from there, black wave ((ii)) ended at $364.50, black wave ((iii)) ended at 341.60. A bounce to $350.54 high ended black wave ((iv)). Then finally a move lower to $335.67 low ended black wave ((v)) and completed red wave C of (2). Up from there, the stock is showing higher high sequence favoring more upside within blue wave (3). Where the initial rally to $374.09 high ended black wave ((i)). The internals of that rally higher unfolded as 5 waves structure with lesser degree cycles showing sub-division of 5 waves structure in its leg higher i.e blue wave (i), (iii) & (v). Down from $374.09 high, the stock did a 3 wave pullback as zigzag correction & completed the black wave ((ii)) at $350 low. After reaching the blue box at $356.01-348.90 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of blue wave (a)-(b). Above from there, the stock has made a new high above $374.09 high suggesting that next leg higher can have started. Near-term, while dips remain above black wave ((ii)) low ($350) and more importantly above $335.67 low the stock is expected to resume the upside. Alternatively, if it breaks below black wave ((ii)) low ($350) then it can be doing a Flat correction from $374.08 high still within black wave ((ii)) before resuming higher again provided the pivot at $335.67 low stays intact. We don’t like selling it and prefer more upside against $335.67 low.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Timing the Next Market Top; Don't Wait Too LongI keep narrowing my projection for the top of the market as more days elapse and more data comes in. I have been contrarian to the 'pundits' and still strongly believe the market will top before the end of 2018. I am right now projecting a near-term top to occur by the end of this week or beginning of next week around 2930. This will wrap up intermediate wave 3 which is presently in minor wave 5, minute wave 5. I have intermediate wave 4 ending down around 2841 around October 5, 2018. After that, the final market top should occur between November 1 and November 16, 2018. The final top should occur slightly above 3000. I initially forecasted the top above 3100, but do not see the top occurring higher than 3070. All of these moves can be monitored in the interactive chart below. The white box was one of my more recent projections, but the green box is my current forecasted zone for the top. I recently published my article detailing 8 stocks that have been great forecasters of market tops. These symbols indicated the tops in 1987, 2000, and 2008. The full article is free as always at ElliottWaveIdeas.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
1
Netflix Elliott Wave View: Further Upside Expected.Hello Traders, NFLX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to $310.84 low ended red wave “IV” pullback. Up from there, red wave “V” can have started but a break above $423.21 6/21/2018 high remains to be seen for final confirmation. Above from $310.84 low, the rally higher $374.57 high ended blue wave (1). The internals of that rally unfolded in 5 waves structure. Up from $310.84 low, the initial rally to $346.27 high red 1 in lesser degree 5 waves. The pullback to $337.65 low ended red wave 2. Then the rally higher towards $366.40 high ended red wave 3. Down from there, the pullback to $359.69 low ended red wave 4. Finally, a rally higher to $374.57 high ended red wave 5 & also completed blue wave (1). Below from there, it finished an Elliott wave Flat correction at 09/05 low (335.86) which also completed blue wave (2) pullback. Above from there it ideally should extend higher in blue wave (3). As long as the pivot at 310.84 stays intact it should extend higher. We don’t like selling it and prefer more upside against $310.84 low.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P 500 Target Zones Once Trend Line is BrokenAfter an extended downtrend to begin the month. The markets are set to break out of the natural funk. If minute wave 4 ended last week, we are moving up for minute wave 5. Since my original projection, the target movement levels and days for this movement to occur have not shifted too much. I forecast the top to occur AFTER the index breaks above the red trend line around the light blue circle on the chart. The top should occur between 14:30 EST on September 12 and 11:35 on September 14. That means this week should see major moves up, before falling off next week. The target zones are broken down into 3 colored polygons. The green zone is the conservative top and yellow zone is still possible. The red zone is least probable and not worth holding out prior to selling. The green zone is topped by a trend line of resistance that has been a strong reversal point for the previous months. The bottom of this zone is around 2913.06. The top of this zone is between 2940 and 2946 (dependent on time and trend line). The yellow zone contains key target levels of: 2943.41 2958.30 2960.05 2966.78 with a zone top around 2969 The red zone is topped at Fibonacci extension 150% at 2973.51. As always, I plan to re-evaluate as deviations occur. After minute wave 5 ends, so does minor wave 3. Minor wave 4 will take the index down for another week or two followed by another uptick for minor wave 5. Minor wave 5 will end with Intermediate wave 3. After this we only have a short intermediate wave 4, and final intermediate wave 5. Then the market will fall. Still looking at the final top in November, but it has shifted to middle November (after the mid-terms). This could be caused by election fallout, China trade issues, "NAFTA" trade issues, Federal Reserve rate changes, a combination of all or another event.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler