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Elliottwaveideas

The 2019 Recession vs. 2008I have marked roughly were I believe today's market is in relation to the 'Great Financial Crisis of 2008'. Each chart depicts: A blue star for a top in the market Followed by a low - marked with the number 1 Followed by the final market top - marked with the number 2 Followed by the first bottom of declines - marked with the number 3 And today's current position is the pinkish circle. If this is true, the next will occur soon and surpass the prior lows marked with the number 3. In the current case these would be the December 24th lows. It took about 352 trading days from top to bottom in 2007-2009 in which the market lost 57% of its value. I only marked a 50% loss on today's chart because it would be much more costly if it occurred and I drew out the highlight for roughly 350 days from the market highs on September 21, 2018. Mark Twain is rumored to have said, "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." Do these charts rhyme? Are they coincidence? Or nothing close? Let me know what you think!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Is The Quad Top in the Market The Ultimate Sell Signal AgainI wrote about the coming Quad Top resistance point a few days ago (linked to this Idea). I said it would present itself within the next few days and it has done so today. The question is what will occur over the next few days? We have also hit the 200 day SMA again (we bounced off it a week ago). Will we push higher through this too. As my previous idea stated. The fourth time this Quad Top resistance has been met on the 5 occasions since 2000, the market has declined sharply. We are also fighting to stay above the 200 SMA again. Failure to stay above these levels in the next 3-5 days could confirm a steep decline is in the offing. We will see what happens, but I am positioned for the decline based on history, the end of earnings season, and zero trade deal ratifications in sight. Please share your thoughts!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
The Quad Tops Signal Steep Declines AheadThere have been 5 occurrences of quad tops in the S&P 500 since 2000. Each top bounced off a resistance trend line four times. The fourth bounce resulted in steep declines for the index. The index is about to test this theory within the next 3-7 trading days as it nears the trend line on the chart above. Could it be a coincidence? Sure, but what is keeping this market from pushing through it now that earnings are over, the Fed is sitting on their hands, Congress is yet to pass the USMCA (NAFTA 2.0), and a China deal is most likely months away (if it happens at all)? On the positive side for technicals, we finally moved above the 100 DMA which has not happen in months, but the 200 DMA is the next test (also likely to occur within next 1-3 trading days). The break of the 100 DMA could be the real deal or a Bull Trap and a break of the 200 could be the same. The technicals are not encouraging until we move clearly above the 100, 200 and the quad top trend line for the bulls. This is the quad tops between 2000 and 2015. The first is in Red and the second is in Orange. The next one is below with the green arrows between 2010 and 2018. The final two are in Blue and Yellow below from 2016 to the present. The red on here is the same as the red on the main chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
7
Did You Really Think VIX Will Remain Under 20 For Long?As we continue the declines from the top (2490.91 on September 21, 2018), we are ready to test and re-take the Christmas Eve lows. This market is the in the earliest stages of the meltdown. TV pundits keep telling you to "buy this dip," but don't be caught off guard. Based on the moves in our current intermediate wave down, we will see within a few days if wave 4 indeed ended on January 10, 2019. If that high is not retaken, I expect the market to continue down to the polygons on the chart. The green box will be the most likely bottom for the end of Primary wave 3. Don't fool yourself, this is only the half-way point of Cycle Wave 1 (there will be 5 of them) in Supercycle wave A which will be an ABC corrective wave. History says this is only the beginning. If the rest of the world is starting to believe a global recession is in the offing, just wait until the realize it is here. Then it will be too late. I have calculated 356 data points of Grand Supercycle Wave 1 (which just finished in September) that dated back to 1932. We are just entering Grand Supercycle Wave 2 which is a correction that has not been seen before. Hopefully I am wrong and this is a bump in the road as the pundits believe, but what if I am right (like I have been)?
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
This is How The S&P 500 Index Will RallyI saw the drop that just happened prior to it occurring. I did not see it dropping so quickly and well beyond typical intermediate wave 4s. With this most recent retracement covering 92% of all of wave 3's gains, it is time for the final uptrend to begin. Intermediate wave 3 took over 50 days to gain what intermediate wave 4 nearly lost in 14. My final analysis has the index regaining around 300 points in 25 trading days. This seems nearly impossible, but so was the recent decline. I have identified 15 possible levels for the top to occur. These levels are based on Fibonacci extensions, correlations to the other intermediate waves, and historical movement of the index since the beginning. The levels of interest are below. The bolded numbers represent the most likely top in my estimate. 2887.05 2911.46 2936.33 2948.32 2957.69 2967.80 2999.66 3034.38 3036.00 3065.17 3065.37 3094.74 3131.08 3145.97 3383.19 The full analysis is available at my site for free along with other data.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
4
Is This Decline A Clue To Something GreaterIntermediate wave 3 has lasted 67 trading days, but the latest bull run appears ready for a break. I have conducted derivative analysis on all of the movement in this super cycle wave 3 to identify where the next bottom will occur. It appears set to occur by October 24, 2018. The following are potential turning points for this bottom. I have bolded the most likely levels: 2878.28 2846.32 2844.90 2841.29 2840.19 2830.43 2813.89 2809.40 2778.61 The full analysis is free on my site.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
7
Netflix Elliott Wave View: Dips Expected To Remain SupportedGood Afternoon Traders, NFLX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the pullback to $335.67 low ended blue wave (2) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a Flat correction. Where red wave B bounce ended in 3 swings at $374.09 high. Down from there, red wave C unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure. And the initial decline to $360.01 low ended black wave ((i)). Up from there, black wave ((ii)) ended at $364.50, black wave ((iii)) ended at 341.60. A bounce to $350.54 high ended black wave ((iv)). Then finally a move lower to $335.67 low ended black wave ((v)) and completed red wave C of (2). Up from there, the stock is showing higher high sequence favoring more upside within blue wave (3). Where the initial rally to $374.09 high ended black wave ((i)). The internals of that rally higher unfolded as 5 waves structure with lesser degree cycles showing sub-division of 5 waves structure in its leg higher i.e blue wave (i), (iii) & (v). Down from $374.09 high, the stock did a 3 wave pullback as zigzag correction & completed the black wave ((ii)) at $350 low. After reaching the blue box at $356.01-348.90 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of blue wave (a)-(b). Above from there, the stock has made a new high above $374.09 high suggesting that next leg higher can have started. Near-term, while dips remain above black wave ((ii)) low ($350) and more importantly above $335.67 low the stock is expected to resume the upside. Alternatively, if it breaks below black wave ((ii)) low ($350) then it can be doing a Flat correction from $374.08 high still within black wave ((ii)) before resuming higher again provided the pivot at $335.67 low stays intact. We don’t like selling it and prefer more upside against $335.67 low.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Timing the Next Market Top; Don't Wait Too LongI keep narrowing my projection for the top of the market as more days elapse and more data comes in. I have been contrarian to the 'pundits' and still strongly believe the market will top before the end of 2018. I am right now projecting a near-term top to occur by the end of this week or beginning of next week around 2930. This will wrap up intermediate wave 3 which is presently in minor wave 5, minute wave 5. I have intermediate wave 4 ending down around 2841 around October 5, 2018. After that, the final market top should occur between November 1 and November 16, 2018. The final top should occur slightly above 3000. I initially forecasted the top above 3100, but do not see the top occurring higher than 3070. All of these moves can be monitored in the interactive chart below. The white box was one of my more recent projections, but the green box is my current forecasted zone for the top. I recently published my article detailing 8 stocks that have been great forecasters of market tops. These symbols indicated the tops in 1987, 2000, and 2008. The full article is free as always at ElliottWaveIdeas.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
1
Netflix Elliott Wave View: Further Upside Expected.Hello Traders, NFLX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to $310.84 low ended red wave “IV” pullback. Up from there, red wave “V” can have started but a break above $423.21 6/21/2018 high remains to be seen for final confirmation. Above from $310.84 low, the rally higher $374.57 high ended blue wave (1). The internals of that rally unfolded in 5 waves structure. Up from $310.84 low, the initial rally to $346.27 high red 1 in lesser degree 5 waves. The pullback to $337.65 low ended red wave 2. Then the rally higher towards $366.40 high ended red wave 3. Down from there, the pullback to $359.69 low ended red wave 4. Finally, a rally higher to $374.57 high ended red wave 5 & also completed blue wave (1). Below from there, it finished an Elliott wave Flat correction at 09/05 low (335.86) which also completed blue wave (2) pullback. Above from there it ideally should extend higher in blue wave (3). As long as the pivot at 310.84 stays intact it should extend higher. We don’t like selling it and prefer more upside against $310.84 low.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P 500 Target Zones Once Trend Line is BrokenAfter an extended downtrend to begin the month. The markets are set to break out of the natural funk. If minute wave 4 ended last week, we are moving up for minute wave 5. Since my original projection, the target movement levels and days for this movement to occur have not shifted too much. I forecast the top to occur AFTER the index breaks above the red trend line around the light blue circle on the chart. The top should occur between 14:30 EST on September 12 and 11:35 on September 14. That means this week should see major moves up, before falling off next week. The target zones are broken down into 3 colored polygons. The green zone is the conservative top and yellow zone is still possible. The red zone is least probable and not worth holding out prior to selling. The green zone is topped by a trend line of resistance that has been a strong reversal point for the previous months. The bottom of this zone is around 2913.06. The top of this zone is between 2940 and 2946 (dependent on time and trend line). The yellow zone contains key target levels of: 2943.41 2958.30 2960.05 2966.78 with a zone top around 2969 The red zone is topped at Fibonacci extension 150% at 2973.51. As always, I plan to re-evaluate as deviations occur. After minute wave 5 ends, so does minor wave 3. Minor wave 4 will take the index down for another week or two followed by another uptick for minor wave 5. Minor wave 5 will end with Intermediate wave 3. After this we only have a short intermediate wave 4, and final intermediate wave 5. Then the market will fall. Still looking at the final top in November, but it has shifted to middle November (after the mid-terms). This could be caused by election fallout, China trade issues, "NAFTA" trade issues, Federal Reserve rate changes, a combination of all or another event.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Can we watch the S&P 500 Index finally move up in September?Minute wave 4 should be over, but confirmation is still forthcoming. The blue circle in the middle of the chart will be the key determining factor. Minute wave 4 has thus far been in a tight trend channel. Minute wave 5 would be active if the line of resistance (red line) is broken through. Once this occurs, the top could be between 2928.92 - 2963.80. Based on derivative analysis of the current waves, minute wave 5 could end as early as 11:35 EST on September 12 and as late as 13:25 on September 13. This is still a short window for this wave to complete itself so be prepared for large moves. Quick movement in a short period of time could revolve around imposition or delay of tariffs against China, positive jobs data on Friday, or another unforeseen piece of news. Continue to check back for more ideas and updates
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
3
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis: Started Another Extension LowerHello Traders, FTSE short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 7790.17 high ended blue wave (X) bounce. Down from there, blue wave (Y) remains in progress with instrument showing a lower low sequence. The internals of that leg lower is taking place as double correction lower due to overlapping price action happening from 7790.17 high thus suggesting that the decline is unfolding in 3 waves corrective sequence. Down from 7790.17 high, the initial move to 7477.05 low ended red wave W of (Y). The internals of that lesser degree decline unfolded as a Zigzag structure where black wave ((a)) ended in 5 waves at 7614.48 low. Then the bounce to 7665.24 high ended black wave ((b)) bounce. And decline to 7477.05 low ended black wave ((c)) of W in another 5 waves structure. Up from there, the bounce higher to 7639.13 high ended red wave X of (Y). The internals of that bounce unfolded as double three structure where black wave ((w)) ended at 7616.15 high. Black wave ((x)) ended at 7531.24 low and black wave ((y)) of red X ended at 7639.13 high. Down from there, the index has made a new low confirming that red wave Y of (Y) has started and looking for extension lower towards 7323.99-7250.04, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of red W-X. Near-term, while bounces stay below 7639.13 high expect index to extend lower. We don’t like selling it.
TVC:UKXShort
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Nailed Last Drop, Here is Next S&P 500 TopI am back with another Elliott Wave Forecast on the S&P 500 Index . After detailed research and analysis, I identified the recent bottom, which occurred today, ahead of time. I have identified the next top. I have identified 3 colored polygons. The green zone will most likely contain the top, but the yellow polygon is also possible. The red zone is unlikely, but anything is possible. I entered long positions today and plan to sell once the green zone is hit. The key levels of interest are: 3070.31 2976.31 2973.51 2960.05 2947.87 2946.10 2943.41 2934.89 2931.95 2931.43 The tight grouping of levels between 2931.43 and 2947.87 make this the most likely zone. I have also identified a trend line of resistance. This will most likely dictate the top based on timing. The top should occur between 11:15 Eastern time on September 10 and 14:00 on September 10. The full analysis and complete article will be posted tonight or tomorrow morning on ElliottWaveIdeas.com
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
GER30 (DAX / GRXEUR) - I called all the tops and all the bottomsAllow me to properly introduce myself! My name is Richard and I am self taught trader, heading for the top. I have been working hard to predict big swings on GER30 ( DAX / GRXEUR). This article is just an example on what I'm capable of. My analysis is spot on most of the times. I get off track sometimes but I always manage to grab the Market's pulse when a shift occurs. Here's some of my previous work on this Index: (just hit the PLAY button and see how my views unfolded) May 12 2017: I called the 1000 points drop on DAX. GER30-DAX - SELL Set-Ups - Stock Exchange Crash July 26 2017: I called the 1700 points rise on DAX. DAX30 – Stock Exchange Crash – Full Cycle October 18 2017: I called the start of the BIG Market Contraction on DAX. GER30 (DAX) - Full Elliott Wave Cycle & Wave Count January 9 2018: I called the 1700 points drop on DAX. (see previous updates & screen-shots) snapshot: March 2 2018: I called the 1350 points rise on DAX. DAX - False Break-Out - Bullish Correction before Deep Bear Claw June 12 2018: I called the 950 points drop on DAX. DAX30 - Quarterly Report August 6 2018: I called the big drop which started and is still developing. Part 13 - Risk-off August - DAX30 Daily The Bearish Corrective Cycle has not finished yet, more down-side to come. Cycle Wave V (green) will follow and the bull Market will resume for the last time. After the Super-Cycle (black) sequence will finish, so will the Grand Super-Cycle reach its top. Market Crash will be epic. You don't know me yet, but I will be a legend! If you hit the like button, thank you! Many pips ahead!
FOREXCOM:GER40
by Lionheart-EWA
6
Could Near-Term S&P 500 Bottom Be In?The S&P 500 Index dropped as projected in my August 29, 2018 article. However, the full projected drop has not been achieved. This could be okay, because the projection did not have the bottom occurring until the day after Labor Day, September 4, 2018. The movement over the previous two days has been interesting and my original analysis has reached a fork in the road. My newest article explores where the index is likely to travel on September 4, 2018. As well as analysis for upward and downward movement. The chart above details if minute wave 4 had been completed. The chart below details if my original projection is still a possibility There are a few reasons this is the most likely path. During the course of intermediate wave 3 which began at the end of June 2018, minuette waves have had a particular duration. The second path (the over-arching chart at the top) has minuette wave C completed in the shortest duration, 60 minutes. Also, minuette wave C is the only wave that failed to meet the prior minimum and median duration. To be fair, a new minimum is not unheard of, but its length compared to the other waves is troubling. Lastly, wave C cannot be shorter than waves A or E. This has occurred per path two’s wave analysis. While these are all reasons the correction and short-term bottom has not occurred, the latter reason is the most telling. The full analysis is available at ElliottWaveIdeas.com No matter what, the market will begin another tick up this week and month before the next correction arrives at the end of the month.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
S&P 500 Index Set To Cool Down For Labor DayBased on derivative analysis. I am projecting Minute wave 3 just completed and we have entered the corrective wave 4. The wave should end over the next 2.5 trading days. I project the bottom will occur within the first 2.5 hours on September 4, 2018. The bottom should also occur between 2870.91-2886.50. All of these targets are based off of the moves that have occurred over the course of Intermediate wave 3. This wave began at the end of June. My projection is wrong if the index breaks above the recent record high of 2916.50 before the end of trading on Friday August 31. If this occurs, We are still in Minute wave 3 (and that top is most likely about to occur). I am closely monitoring the index. Intermediate wave 3 will end in September, most likely near the end of the month. Intermediate wave 4 should end no later than the second week in October. The final wave and major market top for now should occur within the first two weeks of November and potentially a result of something below. When the US markets fall, I would attribute it to US election results (perception of potential impeachment attempts), failure to reach trade deal with China, a major geopolitical conflict/war, North Korea issues, or failed passage of the already agreed upon trade deals with the EU, Mexico, or Canada.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
SPX set to make new record high above 2900 this monthThe S&P 500 is finally ready to break out and achieve record closes once again. I have identified the zone before the next pullback. The next near-term top should occur by August 23 above 2900. The green box is my starting zone for the top. The black bordered polygon will most likely contain the top. There is strong resistance in this polygon. A short drop should occur after this top before another burst well above 2925 by mid-September. What are the real-world scenarios to likely drive this quick move up? My guess is a trade deal between the US and at least Mexico, possibly Mexico, Canada, EU, and/or China. I still have the actual market top on pace for November 2018. This top should be above 3000, but might not make it to 3100. More to follow.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Looking For Bottom of Minor Wave 2 Before High Ride; SPXWe could still see a drop for 3 more days before blasting off toward 2900. We are just starting minuette wave 3 with two more waves to go. Expect lower markets today below 2800. A bump above 2800 but most likely below 2808 late today or early tomorrow and our bottom will most likely occur early Monday morning. We should find the ultimate bottom below 2780-2790. I anticipate a lower open on Monday morning with a rise throughout the day. We could be viewing the final threats of the trade war, before some sort of positive deal is reached early next week. This could be very interesting. Bring on the end of the bull market!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1