BTC Elliott Waves - Month UpdateBitcoin (BTCUSD) Tends to move with the Elliott waves.
Follow this Idea to know the movement of Bitcoin based on Elliott waves.
Elliottwaveprojection
WXY correctionHello ladies and gentlemen :)
I couldn't make a prediction yesterday for Tradingview, but even though I could predict the move, I missed the reaction area by only 3 pips and couldn't get my short trade. I think the last breakout started the main correction of the WXY move with a nice example of an impulse move. I expect it to move to the orange zone below, as I show on the chart.
Tomorrow I will look for a long position in the area shown in red. After around 1.0550, I watch the movement and expect it to continue until around 1.0580.
In the London session, inflation data will come first from France and then from Spain. According to expectations, I think it supports my main scenario.
If you like my analysis, do not forget to support. Your likes make me very happy :)
Good luck to everyone.
btctoying around with the possible W1 leading diagonal with a ST top around $40k. Then W2 down to $19k B4 1/2ing then big run after the event.
Gold seems ready to resume its uptrendGold seems to have completed its corrective wave and ready to move back higher towards 2470.
A break above the previous all time high near 1920 would give even more weight to this call.
On the other side, a break below the recent low of 1810 would reduce our conviction.
A break below the uprising trend line near 1740 would invalidate this view.
GBPUSD: Bullish reaction is coming?Although we cannot yet rule out a new bottom on daily chart, from a technical point of view, we are approaching an interesting support area, and this should trigger a bullish reaction on the pair. That said, our short-term view is bullish and we will follow the development in the next few hours on intraday chart (Reversal Pattern formation is necessary to trigger the rally).
Trade with care
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The Price of Black Gold: A Poetic Analysis
-- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset.
-- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices.
-- The MACD for Brent Oil is currently above the signal line and in positive territory. This suggests that the uptrend in Brent Oil remains intact.
-- Potential Direction for Brent Oil
Based on the Elliott Wave, RSI, MACD, and other technical tactics, the potential direction for Brent Oil on the weekly timeframe is bullish.
Brent Oil is likely to continue its uptrend, with the next target being the 100 USD level. However, if Brent Oil breaks below the 80 USD level, it would suggest that the uptrend is at risk.
-- Factors That Could Affect the Analysis
There are a number of factors that could affect the analysis of Brent Oil, including:
Global economic growth: A strong global economy will lead to increased demand for oil, which would support prices.
Geopolitical tensions: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and other oil-producing regions could lead to supply disruptions, which would boost prices.
US monetary policy: The US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could lead to a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in oil demand, which would weigh on prices.
Overall, the technical outlook for Brent Oil is bullish on the weekly timeframe. However, investors should be aware of the factors that could affect the analysis and should adjust their positions accordingly.
-- Additional Notes
It is important to note that no technical analysis is perfect, and the price of Brent Oil could move in a way that is not anticipated by the analysis above.
Investors should always do their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USDCAD: Short Term Technical AnalysisTechnically the FX:USDCAD pair seems to follow 12345 bullish impulse structure on intraday chart. Having said this, it is possible to follow 2 setups (bearish and bullish) on levels shown on the chart. On the short side, it is good to monitor and manage the position closely and move stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible. In this case the expected pullback could take the form of ABC or ABCDE Pattern. Levels may change, so follow our updates below or on our website.
Trade with care
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GBP/JPY: Corrective structure is coming?From a technical point of view,, as long as the corrective structure does not fail, a bearish leg is still possible. That being said, if this analysis is correct a 3 or 5 wave bearish pattern should appear. With that in mind, the trend is bullish on the intraday chart, so use small size for this trade, even if the risk is very limited.
Anticipated Rise of Buterin's Brainchild Before CorrectionIn recent days, the price of Ethereum continues to be under pressure from the Bears, moving in the price range of $1560-$1750. We expect that in the coming hours, the accumulative phase of Buterin’s brainchild will end, and then the upward movement will begin within the last subwave (5).
When Ethereum reaches a strong resistance zone in the $1732-$1738 range, a corrective pattern will be completed, namely a single zigzag ⓐ- ⓑ -ⓒ.
In the medium term, bearish pressure on bulls will increase due to the growing likelihood of a Fed rate hike in early 2024. As a result, many investors continue to prefer to invest their money in more conservative savings instruments. As a result, we expect Ethereum to reach $1,565 by mid-Q4 2023.
Moreover, since the first quarter of 2022, a total of more than $40 billion of capital has been redeemed, representing an overall decline of more than 25% from the peak set at the end of March 2022. As a result, this reflects the impact of the tightening of monetary policies carried out by central banks in recent quarters to contain inflation. Moreover, rising energy prices are preventing the Fed from achieving its desired results, which could ultimately lead to more radical steps.
In addition, USDC has shown a decline of about $30 billion since July 2022, partly a reflection of investment funds continuing to invest clients' money in high-yield bonds, REITs, and artificial intelligence-related companies.
Some theoretical knowledge for traders/investors who are just starting their journey in the financial markets.
In Elliott Wave Theory, a single zigzag is a corrective wave pattern consisting of three waves labeled A, B, and C. It is one of the most common corrective patterns observed in financial markets. The first wave, wave A, moves against the primary trend and is typically a sharp and impulsive decline. Wave B is a corrective wave that follows, representing a partial retracement of wave A. Finally, wave C is the last leg of the zigzag and moves in the direction of the primary trend, often being an extended and strong upward movement.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
US is running a clinic on how to self-inflict financial woundsEarlier today I was on a conference call with traders examining the index price patterns and discussing the initial price action of The SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX) and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) off their July highs. Currently my company is forecasting we revisit, and ultimately breach the October 2022 lows sometime in the first half of 2024. However, what the catalysts are to get us there is speculation. A black swan event of such some stature would need to unfold.
Mid conference call one of the attendees’ types into the zoom chat box, "McCarthy was just removed as speaker!" On the call was a collective...whoa!
I could understand some of you reading this article would say, so what! The US congress has been dysfunctional for some time now. Unfortunately, I would agree and could not find fault with such apathy. However, consider the unintended consequences of such a historic action. Never has a US speaker of the house been removed in such fashion.
What could develop into unintended consequences?
Which such acrimony and division in the lower chamber how can the house agree on anything? The hill conservatives in the house want to die on is the growing national debt. Whether that is disingenuous or not is not the point of this article. I'll let the political pundits argue that. I want to keep this article focused on what is directly related to the US markets.
Government Funding
Through some rare bipartisanship we averted a government shut down just this past weekend. Leading up to this weekend, the news media had all but written the obituary for a funded government through regular order. However, the legislation only funded the government for 47 days. That means it's possible we're back to worrying about a funded US government next month.
Rating Agencies
I have to admit when Fitch downgraded the credit rating of US government debt in August, I was skeptical of that decision. In retrospect, I now understand with all the self-inflicted uncertainty. However, do we need to now worry about Moodys and Standard & Poors. What is the consequence to interest rates if the US credit rating becomes under assault.
Interest Rates
The US markets have yet to acknowledge high interest rates are a structural headwind for company earnings and by extension, the market as a whole. Case in point, the below chart shows the yield on the 10y treasury.
10-year US Treasury Chart
Today, yields are higher than when at the October 2022 lows. The uncertainty created today by historically removing a US speaker of the house does not scream the US should be getting a lower rate on it’s debt. No, it most certainly means the opposite.
Mortgage Rates
12% of US GDP is housing. Aside from Fed action, if rates now go up because of the added uncertainty, we could easily go from positive to negative GDP. No US sector is more rate sensitive than housing.
Consumer Spending
If you thought housing at 12% of GDP was large, the consumer represents 70%. From mortgages, to credit card debt, the consumer was already starting to slow. Higher rates due to uncertainty will cause the consumer recoil, and that's the ballgame.
I could go on about current labor strikes in America and how that could change the employment outlook and the economy on a dime. I could discuss in depth the quantitative tightening action of the federal reserve. All concerns we're currently trying to weigh its impact on the economy.
Now we have to deal with this new added uncertainty. It appears in the US we know how to run a clinic on self-inflicted wounds.
Setup for a new high in 2 year yieldWe have a setup for another spiky move up in 2 year yield to a new high of the year 2023.
The target for the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up = 5.365%
Triangle Pattern Breakout in ONGC Elliott Wave Analysis.:-
View 1:-
Triangle pattern
In connecting wave triangle pattern seems to be given a breakout and a retracement was taken place. we can accumulate with 1938 as stop loss. .
there are some alternative views. will share in next chart.
SP500 Has An Unfinished A-B-C Structure; Elliott Wave AnalysisSP500 has been bullish most of the year; a trend that can resume after a corrective pullback that is underway now, seen in wave 4 on a daily chart. However, wave 4 should then be made by three waves before correction can come to an end; which is not the case yet, as price action down from 4600 can be ongoing impulse; ideally sub wave 3 of (C) now, so more weakness for wave 5 of (C) is probable to 4300 after a wave 4 pullback that can retest 4400 resistance area.
GBPUSD: Rebound in short term?Trend is bearish but at the same time, on intraday chart a corrective structure is possible in short term. That said, if the pair triggers a bullish (impulsive) leg, it might be interesting to take a long position on pullback. From a technical point of view, the potential technical rebound should take the shape of ABC Pattern.
Coinbase ($COIN): Opportunity or failure?In mid-long term we are not so much bearish about NASDAQ:COIN and we think that the bulk of the descent has already been done. Although potentially a bearish structure (wave 5) could still be missing, by the end of 2023 we expect a rally around 110 area . At this moment we are obviously not talking about trading but about some interesting investment opportunities.
Of course we can't help thinking about what happened last week, but at the same time we think that sooner or later the Company will be able to meet all the clarification requests from the SEC.
Trade with care!
Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful.
Cheers!
As we Approach the 4307.50 target, a Reminder Seems AppropriateI’ve written about price heading to the mid 4200’s to low 4300’s for a while now. By my count, I’ve written a total of 4 times just in the month of September.
Links below:
Sept 15
Sept 14
Sept 8
Sept 2
The target moved up slightly following the Sept contract change to Dec from 4256 to 4307.50. As the analysis changed, I adjusted my targets. But I must be honest, this has been a difficult pattern to trade so far up till today.
From an educational standpoint, yes, I found some silver linings. Ones in which I feel will end up working in my favor in the future. However, I didn’t decide to write this article to announce to my followers how great of an analyst I am.
I did so to issue a reminder.
When price does finally come into the 4307.50 area…if we bounce impulsively higher in a 5-wave pattern, we may complete an abc correction to the downside and rally for the remainder of 2023.
However, if we breach 4307.50 to the downside for a sustained period of time, and price continues to move through the 4250 level. That is our first big clue (NOT CONFIRMATION) that we’re headed to 3200-3300 MINIMUM IN early to mid 2024...
Just a friendly reminder.
Best to all,
Chris
Emerging Markets Show A Corrective Decline For StocksEmerging markets show a corrective decline for stocks from technical point of view and from Elliott wave perspective.
Emerging markets chart with ticker EEM made sharp an impulsive rally at the end of 2022, which indicates for more upside after a corrective a-b-c setback that is actually still in progress since the beginning of 2023. So, for stock market support keep an eye on EEM chart, as they are in positive correlation.
With current slow down in the stock market, we can see it finishing wave »c«, but wave »c« has still room down to 61,8% Fibo. and 36-35 support area before market stabilizes.
My thought on $BTCMy first analysis that i publish here. Let me hear your thoughts.
I am open for any input.
GOLD: rebound in short term?From a technical point of view, on intraday chart we have an interesting support area just below 1900. If a bullish reaction appears, wait for the clear signal (wave A) and try to take Long position on pullback (wave B).
Trade with care
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PREVIOUS SETUP
USDCAD: Corrective structure in short term?Many of you already know this big picture on daily chart, in the last few weeks we have been following this beautiful rally. Having said that, the trend is bullish on daily chart, but at the same time we don't rule out some corrective structure i short term. From a technical point of view, we have shown on the chart two potential areas useful for trying to take a short position.
As we said earlier, our view has been bullish over the last few weeks and we traded the rally thanks to our harmonic structure:
(click on chart below)
From a technical point of view, it could be interesting to look for some reversal pattern (bearish) on intraday chart, so if the conditions are right, we will publish our updates below.
Weekly Update: Strap-In and be PatientToday, we have clearly started our descent down to the low 4300 level. I have posted about this sort of move for a while now. This move to the 4300 level will not happen in a day, nor do I think it will reach my target by next week. However, I do think this will be the type of descent that will not allow for good short entries.
That day has come and gone.
We now track a pattern that is in the very initial stages of carving out a 5-wave structure towards the low 4300. I offer one thing of support to those who are already short. This is now an incomplete wave 1 and should finish today or Monday...but if you think this is swift and scary...wait for wave 3. LOL
Best to all,
Chris
USDCAD: Rebound in short term?In the last few sessions we have seen an interesting consolidation on intraday chart. From a technical perspective, this bearish leg could also be a 12345 impulsive structure. That said, some corrective structure is possible in short term. In this specific case, the problem is not "if" we reach the Target, but "when" we will reach it and from where the technical rebound will begin. Target1 at 1.36 with long position accumulation strategy (Buy the Dip).
Trade with care
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Weekly Update: Next Stop 4312.25The rally off the August 18th lows is an overlapping mess that stands a high probability of concluding very soon, if not TODAY.
However, yesterday's CPI report market reaction marked a unique opportunity to remind followers, that markets are not linear. You can choose to look at the CPI report positively through a bullish or bearish lense. The reality was the pattern forming prior to the release was overlapping and signaled traders were uncommitted to higher or lower price action. In my trading room we debated the micro pattern the night before and, in the end, we had nothing constructive to the downside, nor the upside. Therefore, it really didn't matter what the report said, we had no micro pattern pointing us down. The upside was well contained within a larger counter trend rally and that was because we had no impulsive pattern up either.
I commented in my trading room, "Does anyone still feel markets are moved by news or events"?
A hotter than expected CPI discredits the narrative the Fed may be done raising rates. Therefore, one would expect the markets to sell off.
But the opposite happened.
You can choose to embrace any narrative you would like to explain that sort of price action. You can choose to invest or trade based on your personal perspectives…all of those buys and sells create a pattern. In reality, traders were telling us prior to the release...there was indecision about market direction and therefore we remained mired in this consolidation.
But I do think market participants will get the memo shortly. That’s because outside of the micro patterns, the larger patterns are telling us we have a meeting at 4312.25 regardless of your narrative, or perspective.
…and attendance is mandatory. See you all at the meeting.
Best to all,
Chris
