Reliance - Day end analysis 2023.05.22NSE:RELIANCE
- Currently into corrective wave a
- Wave a subdivided into 5 impulse waves i,ii,iii,iv,v (light blue color)
- Wave iii extended 1.618 times wave i
- Wave iv retraced 38.2% of wave iii
- Wave iv did not close inside wave i territory (EW cardinal rule satisfied)
- Wave v target is 100% length of wave i (@2413), which should also mark completion of wave a
Set-up:
- Short at CMP 2455
- SL daily close above 2470
- Target 2413
Elliottwaveprojection
NVIDIA ($NVDA): Trend is still bullishFrom a technical point of view, NASDAQ:NVDA 's trend is bullish on daily and intraday charts, and after some correction, NVIDIA Stock should trigger at least the latest rally. That said, if we look at 1H chart, we see a completed wave 3 and a corrective structure in play. The 309/303 support area should limit a potential pullback before a price recovery, , and as shown on chart, the amplitude of wave 5 should be around 7%.
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About INVIDIA
NVIDIA Corp. engages in the design and manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. It operates through the following segments: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Tegra Processor, and All Other. The GPU segment consists of product brands, including GeForce for gamers, Quadro for designers, Tesla and DGX for AI data scientists and big data researchers, and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The Tegra Processor segment integrates an entire computer onto a single chip and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices. The All Other segment refers to the stock-based compensation expense, corporate infrastructure and support costs, acquisition-related costs, legal settlement costs, and other non-recurring charges. The company was founded by Jen Hsun Huang, Chris A. Malachowsky, and Curtis R. Priem in April 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
GBPNZD: Target 1 hit! 💗...What's next?As we can see from our last setup (see chart below) the FX:GBPNZD pair reached our first target around 2.0087, but at the same time, I don't rule out reaching our old Target 2 (now Target 1) around 1.9850 area.
Technically speaking, the pair might develop something like an ABC Pattern as the main trend still remains bullish on intraday chart.
PREVIOS ANALYSIS
(Click and Play on Chart below)
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Predicting the bottom of AvalancheAVAX/USDT.P on BYBIT
Looks like the W-X-Y pattern is coming to an end and we will try to predict the bottom as best we can to catch a swing trade of wave C or even a 3 and a new rally.
If the count is right and the weekly support level at 13.910 does not hold, a one to one (of the W-X-Y) price target will be next. We could speculate the weekly level then will serve as a SR flip to confirm the start of the last wave 5.
Watch out for the weekly bar ending as a spinning top or doji for a bullish reversal up to wave 4 of 3 of C of Y in the last zig zag.
Risk
For me the stop level would be either right under weekly level at 12.180 or at the low of 10.535 also giving a double bottom setup. If we se it go all the wave to the high of wave A we could se a Risk/Reward ratio at a proximally 6.
Targets
First target for locking in profit would be the weekly level at 13.910 then we have the point of control for the whole correction at 17.285 and the high of A or 1 at 22.795.
Avalanche Market Cap
Avalanche market cap is now ricing to $4,741,712,576 and as of writing the trading volume (24h) is $132,773,075.
Conclusion
I will continue watching the price action on Avalanche and if it will continue to decline and unfold in way similar to the predicted pattern. It could be an interesting swing trade to the upside for a low risk.
TSLA | TFW Wave Projection Triple Correction - Reversal PatternTesla : Wave projection with a triple combo correction scenario - 1. extended flat 2. zigzig 3. potential a triangle reversal pattern breakout downtrend line.
This week is moving below wave b.b.b downtrend baseline, squeezed between ma50w and ma200w - still choosing breakout side.
The price could retest and fakebreak ma50w - a possible short entry targeting near the previous liquidity support level.
RRR: 2.5:1
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss!
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned.
With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above.
Here's where things get tricky.
For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below.
I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway.
My Expectation:
Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels.
However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action.
So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher.
Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts.
Just like trading...reading is hard.
Best to all,
Chris
BNBUSDT BEARISH, Bulls be careful!This analysis is on BNBUSDT however, it relates to the market as a whole as all major crypto coins usually trend in the same direction.
This (A)(B)(C) Elliott Wave pattern indicates weakness from the bulls.
Wave (C) formed an "ending wave diagonal" where wave 3 is shorter than 1 and 5 is shorted than 3. This usually indicates exhaustion from the bulls and a reversal to the downside.
The red box indicates an area that would be good to enter a short position.
The green box is where previous support was found due to high levels of volume being recorded. The green box is also where (D) would equal 0.618 (the golden ratio) of (B). This is a common ratio for wave (D) if an ABCDE triangle was to form. In order to reach this level, the price would need to break below the upward sloping trend line.
I hope this helps you with your trading and as always, good luck!
Disclaimer: Not financial advice, intended for educational purposes only
S&P500: Technical AnalysisNew high for the SP500 Index during Friday's session, and it may need further bullish consolidation this week. That said, if we look on hourly chart, the 12345 impulsive structure might with has been completed yet, so it might be interesting to try to take long position in support area.
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Nifty50 Day End analysis: 2023.05.19NSE:NIFTY possible view in coming week 22.05.2023 - 26.05.2023.
Looks like today Nifty has completed (ii) of c.
Also, RSI above 50 on hourly chart at the end of day resolves the previous RSI positive divergence on hourly chart.
The view stays invalid if price moves above 18297 (top of wave b) before reaching end of wave c.
Bitcoin Is Finishing A Corrective DeclineBitcoin with ticker BTCUSD made nice and clean A-B-C correction in the 4-hour chart as mentioned and highlighted. We can actually already see it trying to wake up from the first 26k support area, but to confirm a completed correction, we need to see a recovery back above channel resistance line and 29k region. Just in case if correction is still in progress, then next deeper support is at 25k-24k that can be tested within an ending diagonal (wedge) pattern for wave C according to count #2.
GameStop ($GME): Potential Consolidation in mid-termGameStop Corp. offers games and entertainment products through its ecommerce properties and stores. It operates through the following geographic segments: United States, Canada, Australia, and Europe. Each segment consists primarily of retail operations, including stores and ecommerce properties focused on games, entertainment products, and technology. GameStop offers new and pre-owned gaming platforms from the major console and PC manufacturers, sells new and pre-owned gaming software for current and certain prior generation consoles, and offers a variety of in-game digital currency, digital downloadable content, and full-game downloads. The firm’s stores and ecommerce sites operate primarily under the names GameStop, EB Games, and Micromania. Its pop culture themed stores also sell collectibles, apparel, gadgets, electronics, toys, and other retail products for technology enthusiasts and general consumers in international markets operating under the Zing Pop Culture brand. The company also publishes Game Informer, a print and digital gaming publication. GameStop was founded by Daniel A. DeMatteo in 1996 and is headquartered in Grapevine, TX.
From a technical point of view, the trend is still bullish on weekly chart (Log Scale), but at the same time, a breakout of the previous low should trigger a bearish leg with a first Target around $9.70 area.
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FERRARI ($RACE) at the resistance area!From a technical point of view, Ferrari ( NYSE:RACE ) Stock Trend is bullish, but at the same time it has reached an important resistance area around $300/320, and from here it could trigger a short-term corrective structure. The minor structure 12345 might be completed, but as we can see from the chart, it might be a wave 5 of 3 (major), so once the correction is completed, I don't rule out a new bullish leg.
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Bitcoin ($BTC): Next potential swing on intraday chartFrom a technical point of view, and at least for the moment, we have to consider the last bearish leg as a simple pullback or part of a corrective structure. The main support area is around 26.450/26.000, and if it will works properly, it should trigger an interesting bullish leg. The main support on daily chart is around 26,750 and the trend on weekly chart is still bearish.
Note: Updates will follow below.
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XAUUSD DAILY TIMEFRAME FORECASTI have tried many scenario on Gold, and i prefer this projection as my trading plan.
Invalidation level at 1949.77, means, in the short term Gold continue to bullish before making major correction on Wave 4 as you can see at the picture.
Elliott Wave is high subjective, i will post if there's a new update on my perspective.
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Nifty50 Analysis: 2023.05.19Medium term view (no short term):
- It looks like Nifty50 is forming a leading diagonal as part of wave a (yellow line).
- Currently it may be into wave iv of wave a.
- For this set up to be true, Nifty must reach around 18200 to mark the end of wave iv and from there retrace to form wave v of wave a. The entire wave a should complete around 18000.
- After completion of wave a, Nifty should touch around 18180 - 18230 to complete Wave b.
- After completion of Wave b, it should all fall down to the level of 17850-17800, which is also 38.2% retracement of entire impulse since previous bottom of 16828.
USDJPY: Intraday Technical AnalysisFrom a technical point of view, on the intraday time frame the trend is bullish, but at the same time, we cannot exclude a corrective structure in the short term. The first Target of this Pattern is around 136.9 area.
If we look at the daily chart, at the moment the view remains the same, at least as long as the Price Action remains above support:
(Click and Play on Chart below)
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Broken Channel Support On EURUSD Can Cause Deeper Correction“USD is turning up vs EUR ahead the US debt-ceiling deadline. EURUSD pair breaking the trendline support“
The USD is higher while stocks are still somehow sideways. The reason for the higher USD can be optimism and speculation about US debt-ceiling. We expected that they will approve it, otherwise, this will cause a lot of damage on the financial market. Yellen has repeatedly warned that »failure by Congress to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt limit could spark a “constitutional crisis” and would unleash an economic and financial catastrophe for the U.S. and global economies”, as reported by Reuters.
USD is trading higher with US yields, and it appears there can be more USD strength coming when looking at the EURUSD pair.
From Elliott wave perspective, every five-wave impulse from lows/highs suggests a change in the trend, but most importantly, after every five waves there comes a three-wave correction.
EURUSD has been trading higher as expected and reached a new 2023 high, where we still think that pair can have now a “temporary” failure break to the upside, which certainly can be the case as recovery seems to be slow and overlapping up from March 1.0517 low. So, latest leg up EURUSD from 1.0517 low, can be an ending diagonal in wave 5 of a higher degree five-wave bullish, which is also a very strong bullish reversal pattern.
Now that EURUSD is turning down, we can also see the pair trying to break out of an important Elliott wave channel support line after a bearish divergence between highs of wave five and wave 3 which is usaully the case at an important top of an impulse. That said, we think that a higher degree correction can be underway now with next ideal support for the EURUSD this year visible at the former wave (4), 1.05 support area.
Weekly Update: Do the Little Things Matter? As an analyst, I often wonder if I get too much into the weeds (so to speak) at times. In the final analysis do those tiny details even matter? When you’re both a full time trader for profit, and simultaneously an analyst who shares one’s work publicly, often times distraction and multi-tasking is the enemy of discovery.
Hopefully, this is not one of those times.
It’s no secret I exclusively use MACD in my analysis. To use MACD properly is to know the indicator intimately. MACD, or moving average convergence/divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line or Zero-Line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. That's probably more than you ever wanted to know about the indicator.
Now in my analysis I do not use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. I exclusively use MACD as a means to guide me within my Elliott Wave analysis. In doing so I have to rely on the indicator to guide me with the following:
1. Is this an A-wave within a corrective structure, or a wave 3 within an impulsive structure?
2. Is the trend concluding or persisting?
3. Is the bottom or the top of a wave structure valid, or should I expect One More High or Low (OMH/OML).
Without observing the indicator in conjunction with my Elliott Wave count, I fear I would be inaccurate in my forecasts. To say MACD is essential to my price pattern analysis is analogous to saying water is essential to life. For me, I cannot perform one without the other. However recently I noticed some very small anomalies in the indicator while analyzing price action that I hope to remember to come back and check for validity.
in the above chart I notated two bottoms in price action and how the indicator reacted to both. As I track and report on each and every tick of the ES/SPX Futures, I noticed our recent breach of 4068.75 a week go to 4062.25 was not on positive divergence. Now anyone who would say I'm way to focused on a detail that in the grand scheme of things means nothing, would get no push-back from me. But is it really meaningless? Is it a clue? Is it the detail 99% of traders would miss, and in the end...is everything?
Truth is...I don't know yet. Time will tell.
The above chart I have manually stretched the MACD indicator, but unstretched and it clearly debatable the recent bottom may not have breached the previous MACD reading and since price has reversed, to the unobservant eye, we have what could be positive divergence.
So, how do we know?
To confirm this was not a mear over estimation of one's detailed orientated skills, the price action would need to follow through lower, without making a new high. Thereby confirming this MACD reading was no random reading worthy of being overlooked. RN Elliott postulated that price action is fractal across all time frames. That's interesting to me, because of this one singular MACD reading has chosen to occupy space in my brain so much that I'm now noticing the very same anolmolies in the micro patterns as well.
Nonetheless, I have a tendency to think positive or negative divergence is either confirmed or it's not. In my current mind, this is not up for debate. Now maybe I am proven wrong as time goes on, but even if that happens, this would not be an unworthy study in what confirmation actually means.
Therefore, I will continue to wonder, IF THE LITTLE THINGS MATTER.
Best to all,
Chris
BTCUSD | 1st ABC Correction A-wave Target ProjectionA potential bullish scenario : 1st ABC correction zigzag pattern with upcoming wave 5 of c-leg targeting 0.382 retracement of previous 5X motive wave move between 24-25K
However, wave 1 and 3 in c-leg are extended, wave 5 can be the shortest wave and truncation is still possible.
Action: A safer long entry can be placed when breakout downtrend line 2-4 or above wave 4 of c -leg, targeting the upper resistance of the bull flag.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss!
XAUUSD FORECASTI know almost all forecast on XAUUSD choose Triangle Scenario, So here's my perspective as WXY Corrective.
Elliott Wave's perspective is highly subjective, in my opinion, Invalidation Level is needed as all technical analysis is just an art of probabilities.
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Weekly Update: Stop Motion ChartsUnfortunately this week I do not have the time to do a deep dive into the ES futures...suffice to stay, if you like being entertained...go back and review my ES Chart posts over the weeks. It's like watching stop motion animation as the only that has changed on the chart is the price action.
PS: Next week I'll have more time to update my followers.
Best to all,
Chris