Elliottwaveprojection
BTC New Bull Market 99% Confidence99% Confidence
It is now official that BTC has started its new bull market cycle after a confirmed weekly candle close above 25.5k. Major Wyckoff accumulation phase is over, now is the time to mark up the price. Elliot Wave analysis also confirmed that the whole move in the last quarter is a new cycle wave 1. And price has already made weekly candle close above 50/200 EMA and 200 SMA, a very convincing move.
BTC can still go up somewhere to 30-37k and then stop, next it will make a corrective move of cycle wave 2 for 6-8 months and land above major Wyckoff accumulation trading range, so it will be somewhere at 25-27k or maybe higher. The low of wave 2 will be the third best time to buy. So wave 3 is around Q4 2023-Q1 2024.
I still amazed by how BTC can still going up and stay in its traditional cycle despite all the odds that conventionally only gold survived. And even now BTC strongly inverse correlated with SPX, a decouple phenomenon, maybe only temporary.
AVAXUSDT| Wave Projection| Potential Ending Diagonal 5-WaveTFD Wave Analysis / Projection - 5 wave ending diagonal pattern? Normally the opposite of previous wave if wave 1 was ABC uptrend, the correction could be 5 wave down
> A potential 5 wave pattern correction downtrend bullish scenario with 5-3-5-3-5 pattern after finishing uptrend ABC wave pattern 5-3-5
> 1-wave - 5 wave downtrend correction retraced previous ABC uptrend or major 1 wave at 0.5 fibonacci level
> 2-wave - ABC uptrend retraced 0.786, 3-wave extended 1.272 of 1-wave, and currently making 4-wave at 0.5-0.618 of 3-wave at falling channel / 50MA resistance but should not rise beyond 2-wave.
> The projected 5-wave downtrend at the target previous DOUBLE TOP pattern expected at 0.5 - 0.786 extension of 3-wave, making a false breakdown with a bullish divergence signal.
Long Entry: 200MA re-breakout zone after the bullish divergence in TFD
ADAUSDT |Wave Projection|Ending Diagonal Downtrend Target -30%+Price action and chart pattern trading medium term setup
> A possible sideway downtrend ending diagonal pattern with a falling flag channel 5 wave
> Now, the price reached the T1 target at 1.618 fibo extension of 1-wave downtrend
> The candlestick pattern is consolidating at the lower support level could be 3-wave and getting ready for 4-wave uptrend rebound
> Indicator: RSI already oversold and breakout MA line, expecting an upcoming BULLISH DIVERGENCE for 5-wave downtrend.
> The next target downtrend is at 2.272-2.618 fibo extension zone - a 30%+ further downside
> Recommendation: Close short position once RSI and MACD showing bullish divergence signal.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%.
SHIBUSDT | Wave Analysis | Bull Wedge Diamond Breakout Position?Wave Analysis combined with price action and chart pattern trading:
> A potential minor 1-wave descending triangle breakout scenario with ABC falling wedge retraced 0.786 fibonacci level
> After recent uptrend diamond breakout above SMA200, now assuming a possible upcoming bullish divergence FAKE BREAKDOWN minor 5-wave to complete the reversal pattern for downtrend A wave correction.
> If breakout +50% upside falling wedge target at downtrend triangle resistance.
> 2nd fakeout is always the 4 - wave correction position
> Long Entry after bullish divergence confirmation at the Wedge
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss,
Good Luck
Bitcoin Reversal with Highest Volume of 2023?I Want to point out a few things about the last bitcoin's possible reversal point:
1- We had the highest volume on daily candle since 2023 with a bullish pin bar
2- The price rejection is from the previous cycle ATH around 19700$ which makes it an important level (Maybe the strongest support till 16000$) and also near the bottom of the ichimoku cloud
Now, IF we consider this as a reversal , there are a lot of things happening here:
1- A huge channel has appeared beginning from 16300$ which I draw as a Fibonacci channel
2- Trading View's Elliot Wave chart pattern shows the targets with its wave projection considering the end of wave (a).
And here are a lot of Resistances on the way (If you needed to read more about Volume Profile here is the link ):
1- Around 21500$ is both VAL of the Volume Profile and a technical resistance around the end of the wave (4) as the first target of the wave (b) projection
2- Around 23000$ is both POC of the Volume Profile and around the top of the ichimoku cloud as the last target of the wave (b) projection
3- Also we have a bearish trend line on the way
And don't forget that Today and Tomorrow we will have the least volume and price movement according to the averages (linked the script on the related ideas), so Monday will be the real deal.
Weekly Update: Will Targets Get Hit?Since I started posting on TradingView.com once per week, I have been warning my readers of softness into the 3800 -3720 area target box. Today, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Really, my only question is when, and then what happens next?
I have a purple pathway down to the low 3000’s and as of now that remains an alternative. With the loss of positive divergences on the hourly I do believe eventually we get into my target box. From there I look to constructive patterns developing.
So far nothing has changed…how we get there is up for discussion.
Best to all,
Chris
NASDAQ Fib Pinball for 3x Short (SQQQ)As of 3/12/23
Waiting for Primary Wave 1 to fill in Subwave iv. Then…
Draw a Fib retracement of entire Wave 1
Wait for Wave 2 to fill in
Move retracement to Wave 2 high
Map Wave 3s 5 Subwave structure to the following Per Elliot Wave Trader (EWT) Tutorial
i - 38.6%
ii - 23.6%
iii - 100%
iv - 61.8%
v - 138.2%
Literally every detail subject to change! Learning as I go!
U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index in contraction?As you can see from the Monthly Chart, U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index could experience an interesting price contraction in short-medium term, could this also be a clear sign of a potential economic contraction, recession? If this happens, we shouldn't be surprised, the Fed is doing everything to fight inflation in the United States...
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
N.B.: Updates will follow below
BTCUSD Bitcoin possible Elliot wave counts on hourlyBTCUSD Bitcoin is possible in wave 2 which is retracement against wave 1 since 21st November and can be completed near 20k. So this can be short candidate with invalidation level of 25271.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
I am not responsible for any kind of your profit or loss
Please consult your Financial advisor before trading or investing
GBPUSD: Reversal Pattern on Weekly Chart.... caution!Hi everyone!
From a technical point of view, the trend is bullish on daily and intraday charts, but at the same time, on the weekly chart, trend is still bearish. Having said that, at the moment, a reversal (bearish) pattern has formed, and as long as GBPUSD fails to trigger a new Top, a bearish consolidation is possible in short-medium term. This pattern will weaken on a weekly close above 1.2264.
...trade with care! 👍
If you think that my analysis is useful, please...
"Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
PS: I will post my Target later....
Ethereum (ETH): Elliott Waves Technical AnalysisFrom a technical point of view, this count predicts a Top formed by an irregular B wave, and this swing should call an impulsive structure (i-ii-iii-iv-v), before a new rally. With that in mind, I have shown the main support (1.065 area) on the chart. The first resistance is wave A, if we manage to break it, this pattern could fail and confirmation will be given by the daily close above wave I. If this scenario appears, we will wait for a deep pullback and look for a long position.
As long as the price action remains above the support the trend is bullish.
My last analysis about Ethereum is very similar:
(Click & Play on Chart below)
Bitcoin long setup based on Elliot WaveAs you can see the main trend lines are on the chart.
The Trading View's Elliot Wave projection suggests going around the next resistance IF the current correction is over and if not, the stop loss will be triggered based on the support's break.
Since we are near a good support of the main up trend, there is a good risk to reward Ratio for going long.
Green trend line is the stop loss, any price action passing it is a red flag.
Red trend line can be used as the take profit.
ATLAS TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS: Elliott Waves Technical AnalysisFrom a technical point of view, the trend is bullish on hourly chart, so it could be interesting to look for a potential corrective structure that we could use to try to take a long position. The downside is that we don't have extended historicity and that makes the setup high risk, so logic tells us to use a small size.
ATLAS TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS ($ATCX) - NASDAQ
NASDAQ:ATCX
Strategy: Buy on Wave 4
PROFILE
Sector : Industrial Services
Industry : Engineering & Construction
Atlas Technical Consultants, Inc. is a provider of professional testing, inspection engineering and consulting services. It offers solutions to public and private sector clients in the transportation, commercial, water, government, education, and industrial markets. The firm provides a broad range of mission-critical technical services, helping clients test, inspect, certify, plan, design and manage a wide variety of projects across diverse end markets. The company was founded on June 28, 2017 and is headquartered in Austin, TEXAS.
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
N.B.: Updates will follow below
ETCUSD Is Moving Into A Support AreaETCUSD can be ready for more upside as market can be forming a new bullish setup formation based on Elliott wave theory.
Ethereum Classic with ticker ETCUSD made an impulsive five-wave recovery since December 19th of 2022, when we spotted a completed ending diagonal/wedge pattern within wave C of an A-B-C correction. A five-wave recovery indicates a change in the trend from Elliott wave perspective, so be aware of more upside in March.
We can see that price is currently nicely slowing down, making a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction for wave 2 after we noticed a five-wave rally into wave 1 from the previous lows. So, keep an eye on strong support here around 19-17 area, from where we expect a bullish continuation above 25.10 while price is above 14.80 low. So as long this level is not breached we expect a new turn up.
I hope to see you in webinar today here on tradingview. Link can be find below.
SAWAD | Elliott Wave Projection | Reversal Pattern BreakoutPrice action and chart pattern trading
> Downtrend Elliott wave channel breakout intermediate ABC correction, a possible reversal with minor ABC uptrend wave
> Pullback Entry @ downtrend channel retest at B-wave
> Medium-term target @ volume profile point of control 0.382 retraced previous uptrend major C-wave
> Stoploss @ the lowest minor 5-wave -5% - 10% downside
> risk reward ratio 2:1 +25% upside
Indicator: RSI already oversold wait for a pull back for the long entry
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stop-loss
ALCOA ($AA) Elliott Waves Technical AnalysisFrom a technical point of view, Alcoa still has an interesting technical structure in play in the medium term. As we can see on weekly chart, the pullback triggered from the last Top reached an important support area around $33 and from here, the market has developed a nice reaction, at the same time however, we need to destroy the important resistance area around $59/$64 to confirm wave 3. If this happens, $AA should be able to trigger a new Top in the medium term. Of course, this setup is not as simple as the last one we shared and published a few years ago (see chart below), but at the same time it could be an interesting trading opportunity, especially if we are able to follow it on small time frame ( daily or intraday chart). Technically speaking, we may have much more information after the next opening bell...
OUR LAST SETUP ABOUT ALCOA
(Click & Play, play, play and play on chart below)
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
N.B.: Updates will follow below
Midterm perspective for FCPOFCPO is probably preparing to trending higher in the future but I'm a bit CAUTIOUS because the price hasn't broken the important level yet (strong resistance) which is around 4500. Currently, the pattern which is unfolding is a ZigZag (thought to be). Assuming this assumption holds true, wave C should ends about the same length of wave A, around 5000 - 5200 levels. There're evidences which supports this assumption:
1. There are 5 waves in wave A
2. Fibo retracement level for wave B in a ZigZag is around 0.618 level
3. By EW rules for ZigZag, wave C should have 5 waves.
4. ZigZag price movement is contained within parallel channel - they tend to in most cases.
We're already seeing 5 waves unfolding in wave C but seems relatively short than assumed projection (5000 level). The only possible explanation is that wave (3) in wave C is an extension.
Disclaimer
This is NOT buy/ sell call but for learning purposes.
Weekly Update: Market Analysis for the Intermediate TermI have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area.
This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say our “Rips” will not have meat on the bone so to speak.
Let’s start with where we are now. We are currently in the middle of carving out a complex w-x-y pattern for our b-wave low in the area of 3772-3653. A breach of 3788 is a target I have been discussing in our trading room for a while now. Upon getting into my target box, I plan on designating the summer of 2023, as "The Summer of LOVE"...lol. This is where traders LOVE the long side once again. This could constitute a RIP that has a lot of MEAT on the bone. We're talking about a potential move up of 700-900 points.
I am speculating when I say, the sentiment would be during this rally that the FED has pivoted, inflation has moderated, "maybe scientists will determine that "Dogs and cats can live together in harmony " (Joke)...but this rally will only give way to a 3rd quarter to end of 2023 being dismal.
Why, you ask?
Because this is the last hurrah for "Buy the Dips" trading mentality. This gives way to despair, as we shed 30%-35% in short order.
I mean this sincerely when I say..."Stay Safe".
Best to all,
Chris