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Elliottwaveretracement

$ELF BTC - beautiful falling wedge - 100%++ at 1:26 risk/rewardGood day traders I hesitated putting this idea up because at the moment, BTC might see support and rebound or it might just slip right through the triangle support and head towards the 4800 range. With that being an unknown, I normally would recommend a trade like this after the signal from BTC but with such a short stop at the moment, It’s a low enough risk trade that I feel confident about sharing Firstly, let’s look at the daily, we have a first wave that did 320%. Three hundred percent (insert jaw drop emoji here)!!! I don’t know many coin that did that much during their first push after the recovery from CME fall. Secondly, that push was eventually followed by a second wave correction that should end either today or tomorrow at or near the 100D MA. Third, back to the main 4H chart, we see that there’s a beautiful falling wedge which should terminate just between the .618 and .65 fib retracement levels. With the 100D MA right at the golden fib zone between .618 and .65, chances are high we'll get a bounce. With those 3 things in play, if the crypto gods are willing, and if the stars align tonight, AND AND AND IF we see bullish momentum from BTC, we’ll likely see ELF bouncing from this descending wedge support to exit the wedge and make its way towards the first target at 19500, then on to 26000. We should expect more out of this push, but how far will depend on how these first few waves move. We'll re-estimate after we get the 1-2 push. I will likely update this idea or make a new one by then. The wonderful thing about this trade is the ridiculous short stop. We’ll be stopping at roughly 11750 because if we get to that price, our wedge would likely be invalidated. Entries: between .00012100 and .00012600 Stop below .00011750 Target: .000255, take half profit at .00019, and spread the rest all the way up to .000255 If you are the better safe than sorry type, wait for a signal from BTC or wait til we break out of the wedge for entry. Your stop and targets would be the same. Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *The ideas and comments expressed herein are my personal opinions and should not be taken as financial advice. Being a trader, at any given point in time, I may or may not be holding the asset in question. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
Hunting for elfs - $ELF BTC - 82% gain 1:12 risk/rewardsIf you follow my trades, you should know by now that I love second wave retrace entries and this trade is no exception. We have a first wave that did 320% in 44 days and a second wave retrace of almost .618 of the first. Currently we have a second wave retrace of a wave that is 2 levels down as we work on the first wave of the third wave. Entries: .00014500 Stop below .00013500 Target: .00026500, take half profit at .00023, reenter at .0002, take rest of profits above .00024 Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *The ideas and comments expressed herein are my personal opinions and should not be taken as financial advice. Being a trader, at any given point in time, I may or may not be holding the asset in question. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
4
$IOTA USD - Possibly not time to shine yetGood day traders IOTA is kinda playing in no man’s land right now. Currently we’re trading below both the 100 and 200 MA on the 4 hr chart. With the 100MA about to cross the 200MA, we might see some additional bearish momentum. Additionally, we have a bear flag being formed to complete this ABC zig zag that should target the .786 correction at roughly 1.30 range. Set your alerts and let this one unfold. If we end up trading above $2.10 without visiting the lower regions first, we’ll be in bullish territory so let’s stay tuned.
BITFINEX:IOTUSDShort
by Kinashi_San
$TRX - easy winner 60% gain 1:7 risk/rewardGood day ladies and gents, This coin needs no introduction since its daily trade volume is more than most coins when they are spiking. Love it or hate it, TRX is going places. Based on the first and second cycles, we can expect TRX to be somewhere around the 5600 satoshis either within this year or the next: Now back to our trade. The only thing bad about this trade is that we’re trading under the RSI support which is kind of against my religion since we do have quite a bit of resistance to push through on the way up. However we do have quite a bit confirmation that we’ve bottomed out at 726 since we had the support from the previous resistance trend line as well as a support from the 200 MA on this 4hr chart. It’s no wonder we’ve bounced back up fairly far due to this confluence. Based on this impulsive move after the ABC zig zag that made our iv, I would say it’s safe to look for an entry. Our entry will be in the form of a second wave retrace in this fifth wave which has a target at the 3.618 fib expansion level at approximately 1289 Entry 801, 783, 758 Stop 720 Target 1260, start taking profit from 1100 and up Risk / reward ratio: 1:7 Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
7
$ADABTC - Stalking over, now we dance - 56% gain 1:9 risk/rewardGood day traders and happy Mother’s Day to the ladies in our lives Speaking of ladies in our lives, let’s take a look at ADA, whom we’ve been stalking since the decline that started on May 2nd. Please see that previous idea (in related ideas below) to get a better picture of my wave count. Basically, we were waiting for ADA to correct to this 50% retracement area of the third wave to look for an entry and we got exactly what we’re looking for. Based on our RSI resistance trend line being broken in the 4hrs chart, we can safely assume that wave (iv) might be done since we should be expecting higher price action from here to get to our fifth wave target at around 4700 or higher. So for entry we should look for a pull back to the 3000 sats range with a stop right below the support if you need to have one. For me, this will be one of those trades without a stop since I’m confident on the general direction of ADA. In addition to that, we have quite a bit of fundamental supporting our trade since we’re going to start seeing Shelley roadmap releases in June. Entry 3000 or if you’re the FOMO type, anywhere as long as we’re trading above the 10 EMA Stop 2800 or don’t Target 4700, start taking profits from 4500 and up R/R ratio: 1:9 Duration: roughly 2-3 weeks If you have found this to be entertaining or if you hated it, feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
8
$ICX BTC - Catching the third wave for 150%++ 1:11 risk/rewardLadies and gentlemen, In our last idea on ICX, we expected a decline to the .618 retracement at roughly 3700 but it only went 4000 and bounced back quite hard. Being that this was the confluence of the 800H MA and the 50% retracement, an algo target, we had a nice and strong impulse wave towards our resistance at 4900. After coming to a hard stop at the 4900 resistance and failing at it several more times, we are low testing the possibility of going below the 800H MA again with a target of either the .5 retrace at 4000 for a double bottom or the .618 retrace at 3700 for a textbook WXY where the Y is 1.272 of the W. Typically second wave retrace is between .618 and .786 of the first so I do expect the latter scenario to play out as we originally speculated in the previous idea With that said, we should have some entries between 4000 and 3700 with a stop below the next support at 3500 just to be safe Entries between 4000 and 3700 Stop: below 3550 Target: 9900, start taking profit above 8000 (100% gain) Risk / reward ratio: 1:11 Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
4
Bitcoin #BTCUSD - more downside in viewAfter the three wave advance to the upside, the marked is reversing again towards the local lows at the level of $8,200. This small wave up might be a wave x, which indicates a possible drop lower towards the level of $7,712 as the correction evolves into a complex one. Moreover, the golden trend line is still providing the dynamic resistance for the price, so as long as this line is not violated, the outlook remains bearish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sebastian.seliga.7
2
$XEM BTC - the good ole 1-2 punch 57% gain 1:5 risk/rewardGood day traders This is an update to my previous idea on XEM. Please see that idea in the related ideas section below. I typically don’t like complex charting because with complexity, we have more noise. However, with XEM’s pricing action being so complex, we enlist the help of our friend the Gann Fan Here you can see multiple points of confluence validating the possibility of higher price action. We have an ABC correction and immediately after that, an impulsive wave with a sharp correction back to .618. Notably this sharp correction led us back to our RSI support, which was once resistance. We can expect the RSI to only go up from here. Ladies and gentlemen, I think we may have our first 1-2 punch here Entry: 3913 Stop: below 3521 Target 6200, take profit from 5500 and up Risk / reward ratio: 1:5 If we find ourselves below 3521, we’ll likely revisit the lower Gain region of around 3200 so make sure your stops are in place. Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
1
$EOS BTC - another nice setup for 80% gain 1:7 risk/rewardGood day traders, Looks like we have a nice ABC zig zag in the fourth that just bounced off on our 200 MA in the 4hr chart. I’m bullish on EOS due to the release that's coming in June. Feel free to review my previous idea on EOS in the related ideas section below. Even though I'm bullish , let’s still trade above the pivot point just to be safe since we are still down trend at the moment. Up close and personal with the pivot point: Entry: buy stop at 17500 Stop: below 800H MA or 15500 Target: 32K Risk / reward ratio: 1:7 Found this idea to be entertaining or absolute garbage? Feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi-San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
15
NANO! WE'RE STILL BULLISH!Okay so we've found solid support along the black trendline i've wicked off, right above our last resort bottom green box. Good news is that we HAVEN'T passed through the 1:1 for the C (bottom green box), which keeps us bullish. Do I see us passing through the Black Trendline? ...It's hard to say, but at this point, we seem to be consolidating and sell pressure seems to be slowing down. Which means, there are more people wanting to buy, over people wanting to sell. But because nothing is confirmed yet, the bulls are staying on the sidelines waiting for that confirmation. So just cause we've slowed in selling, doesn't mean everyones going to jump in and buy. But it doesn't mean Bulls will start accumulating along this black trendline. REMEMBER: BULLISH DOES NOT mean, that we're going to impulse up straight away, but it does mean we aren't BEARISH. WE'RE STILL BULLISH, UNTIL WE BREAK DOWN BELOW THE 1:1 EXTENSION (THE BOTTOM GREEN BOX). Why? Because if we have 5 waves up, which I'm sure we have, that becomes our big wave 1, and we're currently on our wave 2 down now. But should we breakdown below the bottom green box, that would be our wave 2 retracing more than 100% of our wave 1, so then we can say we are bearish. But until then I'm still bullish. I'm still watching, and may start accumulating in a couple days, with a tight stop below the bottom green box. LASTLY **IMPORTANT** If Bitcoin falls there is a chance that we fall down below the bottom green box, unlikely but its still on the table. Hence why I, like other bulls, are Sidelined and watching for the time being. Thanks **NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST SHARING WHAT IM SEEING**
NLong
by Etsua
ZILBTC - $ZIL - don’t get suckered into this death trapHello traders, ZIL has gotten all sorts of pumps lately, mainly due to being listed on multiple exchanges within the same week. It has basically gone parabolic. Looking at the daily, you can see that the last time ZIL closed a candle below the 10 EMA was on April 10th. After that, it saw more gains than Arnold in his prime without a single candle closing under the 10 EMA in 33 days. So the question here is, will this madness keep going or will ZIL defy all odds and keep pushing? Looking at our waves in the 4hr chart, we see that our wave i was a leading diagonal with a short second wave retrace of roughly 0.382. So with a short wave ii, we also expected a short third wave iii, which we got, since it was only 1.618 of the first. In cases where you get a short third wave, you know that there is a high likelihood that the fifth wave could be extended. So how you typically project your fifth wave is by combining the gains of the first and third to project either a 1.618 or 2.618 (rare) to get your fifth. In our case, it looks like the fifth wave spiked though the 1.618 expansion at 2350 then came right back and it has been trading below this level since then which means that spike might have been our top, the end of the fifth wave… And we know what happens after the fifth wave - what goes up, must come down. Another reason why I’m bearish on ZIL is because my 4hr RSI trend has been broken. This trend was broken before on May 6th, but we came right back above it. However, this time we’ve tested this RSI trend twice after going under and got denied both times. My guess is that the RSI will likely continue its downward path, which means that our pricing will also continue a downward path. With that said, where should we expect ZIL to correct to? Well, now that the whales have already dumped all their coins, I expect ZIL to slowly slide back down to a support near the .618 retracement shown here, or about 1200 satoshi. That is the most reasonable support where we should see ZIL bounce to start its third wave. Lets let this develop and we’ll revisit this idea when we have more confirmation and a clearer picture of what the second wave looks like If you have found this to be entertaining at the least or if you hated it, feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Short
by Kinashi_San
20
ADABTC (Cardano) BUY @ WolfeWave & Prior Wave 4 Low area.ADA/BTC (Cardano) BUY, 05/07/18, written 9:45 p.m. EST, by Michael Mansfield Cardano's Wave 4 is likely bottoming at or near the Wolfe Wave trend-line (dashed black line). The low came a day early to what was optimal but within the 5-12 days that I expected the retracement to last, and mentioned in the prior Cardano post. Nevertheless, even if the low is in, the correction may end up more complex, which is fine. A Wave 5 move up should unfold to the Gann Fan 3/l line (blue downward angled line labeled Elliott Wave V & 5), which is also where the 50% retracement level of the January high to March crash low is, and where an Andrews resistance line (solid black), all meet. The price area mentioned above should provide very strong time & price resistance. However, should this expected rally have a steeper slope and more volume than April rally, this wave count might be one degree too low, thus it would more bullish than I currently show. The low will likely be confirmed if and when Cardano breaks the down channel resistance line (black line closest to current price). Once the forecasted Wave 5 top is in, I would then expect a larger degree ABC correction down (labled A B C in red). Then repeat 1-5 back up later in the summer. NEGATED IF: This outlook is negated and would then be bearish if the ADABTC fails to break the Gann Fan 2/1 line (blue downward sloping line at Elliott Wave 3 area), within 10 days and/or it breaks 0.000027 to the downside. ----------------- BUY idea: Buy @ 0.00003650 or better (currently @ 0.00003635, probably OK to buy up to 0.000038). Initial Protective Stop Loss @ 0.000027 Move stop to 0.00003350 if .000040 is reached, Consider exiting 1/3 position @ 0.000041 and move remaining position stop to break-even. Wave 5 target is 0.00005264 so exit another 1/3 at 0.000052 and trail stop below 2-3 day low at that point. If the correction turns out to more complex, as mentioned above, it should be OK with the stop we suggest. (See prior Cardano post from 05/03/18, for zoomed out view). We will try to let you know if the waves unfold as expected in order to pinpoint the high time and price, or if the outlook becomes more bullish or more bearish. RATIONALE: Cardano fell into the Wolfe Wave (Wave 1 - Wave 4 trend-line) target area, which also met the Elliott Wave's prior Wave 4 target area. The current low was almost exactly at the expected price from the prior post, and 5 days from the top, if you count the top day, which was a large range outside bar reversal down. Volume has declined since the high on 05/03/18, which is expected if this is just a correction. If it was a new bear phase, volume during the sell off should have increased, but It did not increase. That is bullsih. The sell off of 5 days showed very low momentum. This, plus the declining volume means that the selling was likely almost all just profit taking, with no large short positions. This is also a bullish sign. ------- TRADER TIP: A bullish Wolfe Wave support price target line is drawn from the Wave (i) high to the Wave (iv) low (opposite for a bearish Wolf Wave resistance price target line). In either case, these are supposedly the average minimum price expectation for a pullback or retracement. As always, use this tool prudently along with other supporting/confirming techniques. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1
OMG! SEEKING A GOOD ENTRY POINT?So we can see we have found trendline support currently, but will it hold? Here is something interesting, if I take a fib extension, and pull from W-X-Y, you can see that we've hit the 100% fib level, and found firm resistance at the 0.786! So we can see the Algos are at work. Currently as far as I can see, we've double topped and are now retracing, and at this point in time, I'm seeing this as an extended correction, HOWEVER...we still have 2 possible BULL scenarios on the table! BULL SCENARIO = We can still count this as a wave 1 up, and now we are coming down for our wave 2. This possibility is always on the table until we retrace past the origin of wave 1. INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS SCENARIO = If we break through the top black trendline, and continue our correction down, there is the possibility, that if we bounce of the bottom black trendline, we could be shaping up for a perfect inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. So ill be definitely watching for that potential. However until then, it'll take me a lot of convincing before I go long. I'll be looking to enter, either when It reaches my buy zone, because I can't see it dropping past there, unless it continues following BTC down, but by then ill have more data to work with, then I can do a more detailed count. I will also consider entering, if I see a solid bounce off the trendline we've found support at now for a quick scalp, but I don't see the market strong enough to push it up at this point. Also I have never found trendlines to be reliable/strong supports, unless correlated with a fib level. So for now, I'm watching to see where it could land, and how it reacts when introduced to each fib level / trendlines, but as far it goes for now, we double topped and are retracing. Thanks **NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST SHARING WHAT I SEE**
BITFINEX:OMGUSD
by Etsua
QTUM! PARABOLIC SELL OFF **UPDATE**RSI is oversold, so there is the potential to play the bounce, however it is too risky in my opinion, unless you have to motivation to do so. So as listed in my other QTUM chart, except now "updated" to fix the chart text TYPO...I have been expecting a bullish reaction here at the 61.8% Golden Zone, where YES, we can see we have found nice support...for the time being, but obviously the correlation with Bitcoin is strong, as it is with every other coin. CURRENT STRATEGY. I'm going to wait and see. We can see previously, we basically double bottomed, and are on our way back down, so I would ABSOLUTELY NOT enter a long position until I see what happens, if and when we reach the lower fib targets. If we punch through the Golden Zone, then watch the reactions at 78.6% and the 88.7%. But I'm watching from the sideline until we see confirmation of a reversal. Thanks **NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST SHARING WHAT I SEE.**
BITFINEX:QTMUSD
by Etsua
NANO! BULL RUN ALMOST UPON US?So our supports held but weren't enough for a reversal. Which leads me to give a new count, and our red trendline is in the wind. SO WHEN WILL THE SELLING STOP?? ANSWER: The highest probability target always for an abc correction down, Is that C is most likely 100% of A = 1:1 extension. And since when have our A&B which are in, we have targets to pull from. And when we do, we find PERFECT confluence with our lowest point (Red horizontal trendline / APRIL REVERSAL) before we began trending up. Which adds more evidence to our A&B having completed, and now we're on our final leg down to complete our C. EVIDENCE FOR OUR 5 WAVE COMPLETION = Our waves 3 & 5 have hit their respective 100% and 161.8% targets. GOOD NEWS? : Well because our 5 waves are in, it becomes a big wave 1, which means we can do a fib pull for ALL of this big wave 1. And what we find, is a lot of correlation between that fib pull, and the trend fib pull from our waves A&B to find our wave C! So we would target a 1:1 extension for our C, except, the odds of hitting the 1:1 in this case for our C gets DRASTICALLY SMALLER, because 2 cannot fall 100% of wave 1! SO our chances of a bounce here right now, at the 0.618 pull from the A&B goes up, BECAUSE we find its correlated with the 0.786 target of the entire wave 1! WHICH IS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TARGET for a DEEP 2 (purple 2) retracement! Will we bounce here? Maybe? But we also have to remember when we are doing our analysis, that everything always goes back to being nicely correlated with the BITCOIN CHART which had a nice NEWS RELATED DUMP which triggered a dump on our NANO chart among other charts, which led to us breaking OUR RED TRENDLINE SUPPORT ON MY PREVIOUS CHART.
NLong
by Etsua
4
NANO BEARISH COUNT NEAR COMPLETING Here is my bear count, which is almost in, as it looks like we have almost completed our "bullish" triangle correction pattern, that is on its final leg down. I think my first target may be too weak to hold, but wether we bounce now or at the red trendline, we should be seeing a bounce soon. Id be watching for a bounce off the red trendline, to gage a good entry. However there is still the possibility we could break through the red trendline, then id change my count, but that is highly unlikely. **Not financial advice, just sharing what i see" Cheers
NLong
by Etsua
ZeroX - $ZRX - let's catch the fourth wave for a fifth wave pumpGood day traders, I had no idea you can do these recordings on here. Super easy and fun to do. They only let you do 10 minutes at a time so I kind of rushed through it. Let me know in the comments if any improvements can be made. Thanks for reviewing and good luck out there If you have found this to be entertaining at the least or if you hated it, feel free to let me know with a like or comment. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
10
QTUM! DON'T GET CAUGHT IN THE REDShot in the dark prediction for Qtum going off the data we've got, unless there a fundamentals at play, Qtum is so closely correlated to Bitcoin, you may as well watch the BTC chart. Green boxes are entry points I'm watching...I wouldn't enter now unless Bitcoin is bullish. It's internally working its way up, trading in the channel (black trendlines), from what I see, its in the middle of its wave 4, before an impulse up to complete its wave 5. We see a reaction off the 50% to the tick, but it doesn't look strong enough to hold. I know there'll be a reaction at the 61.8% if we get there. A touch down at the 78.6% would require hard sell side pressure, and anywhere lower all bets are off. At the moment im watching to see if we have an ending diagonal at play, but it does look bullish, as it is trending up, and it does look like its on its wave 4. So I WOULD NOT buy in yet, until I either reach my targets, or BTC makes a bullish move and QTUM decides to follow. **NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST SHARING WHAT I'M SEEING** Thanks
BITFINEX:QTMUSD
by Etsua
ICXBTC - won't be ready to move til end of monthHello traders, We've corrected quite a bit but I think we still have a bit more to go. Likely towards the end of the month we'll see if IXC is ready to push again. For now, it's vacay time for this hard working coin. A break above the lower high at 4868 and we should see bullish momentum earlier than expected. Note the rare but valid descending channel in the RSI. As always, good luck and stay safe! Kinashi San *For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
Long
by Kinashi_San
2