Get started

Elliott Wave

USD/CHF 1H – Bearish Trend Supported by SNR Breakdown & AO Conv**Key Observations:** 1. **Support and Resistance (SNR) Dynamics:** - The pair has breached critical support levels at **0.83952** and **0.83933**, signaling weakening bullish defense. - Next immediate support lies at **0.83500**, followed by **0.83200**. A breakdown below these levels could accelerate bearish momentum. - Previous supports (e.g., 0.84200–0.83952) now act as resistance, with **0.83933** serving as a key level for bears to defend. 2. **Awesome Oscillator (AO) Convergence:** - The AO histogram shows a clear bearish shift, declining from **+0.01500** to **-0.00500**. This transition into negative territory reflects increasing downward momentum. - The **convergence** between price action (lower lows) and the AO’s downward trajectory confirms bearish alignment. **Bearish Outlook:** - The breakdown below SNR levels, coupled with AO’s bearish convergence, suggests a high-probability downtrend. - A sustained close below **0.83933** could target **0.83500** and **0.83200**. A retest of the former support-turned-resistance (0.83933–0.84200) would offer an entry opportunity for shorts. **Risk Management:** - A bullish invalidation would occur if price reclaims **0.84200** with AO reversing above zero. - Place stop-loss above **0.84200** for short positions. **Conclusion:** USD/CHF favors bears on the 1H timeframe. Monitor SNR levels and AO for confirmation of continued downside. **#Forex #USDCHF #TechnicalAnalysis**
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
Bitcoin - Final pump to 120k, then 60k in 2026Bitcoin is in the final stage of the bullish cycle, and we want to look for the best price to sell and prepare for the 2025/2026 bear market! The best price to sell Bitcoin is at the 1.618 FIB extension or at the main long-term 2017-2021-2025 trendline. This is exactly at 122,069, as we can see on the chart. Buying Bitcoin at the tipity top of a bullish cycle is not the best idea, because we will see 60,000 USD per bitcoin in 2026! From the Elliott Wave perspective, there is probably only 1 high-probability scenario, and it's this ending diagonal pattern (rising wedge). I think we will see a final 2 waves on Bitcoin to form an ending diagonal wedge pattern (1-2-3-4-5). Bitcoin is in wave 3. I am also bullish because of the 50-week moving average. Historically, Bitcoin reacted to this MA very precisely. I always recommend using simple moving averages with 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods because this is what the big players are using as well. These MAs are very popular among giant institutions, banks, and investors. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! It is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Xanrox
218
GOLD → Retest resistance before fallingFX:XAUUSD is forming a correction and retesting a strong resistance and liquidity zone within a downtrend. The global trend is one step away from a reversal... Gold stabilized ahead of the release of US inflation data. After falling 3%, gold is holding steady at around $3,200, consolidating against a weaker dollar. Investors are awaiting US CPI data, which could set a new direction. Optimism about the US-China trade agreement, geopolitical détente, and profit-taking on the dollar are holding back the price decline. The market is assessing how inflation data will affect Fed policy and demand for safe-haven assets. Globally, the market doubts that the upward trend will continue, and there are reasons to look for points from which the price could start to fall sharply... Resistance levels: 3269, 3284 Support levels: 3246, 3200, 3167 The news may cause a shake-up, but if there are no surprises, a false breakout of 3260-3270 and consolidation of prices in the selling zone could trigger a decline to 3200-3150. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
22
SUIUSDT → False breakdown of support before growthBINANCE:SUIUSDT has entered a consolidation phase within a bullish trend. The chart shows a zone of interest and a trigger area that are worth paying attention to... The coin looks quite positive. An upward trend is forming, which is also supported by the growth of Bitcoin and a relatively positive fundamental background. Technically, SUI is consolidating between 4.110 and 3.811. Below the support level, a huge liquidity pool has formed, which has not yet been tested. There is a high probability of a false breakdown before the growth continues, but if the market turns out to be more aggressive, buyers may not let the price fall to 3.811, in which case we can consider a breakout of the resistance at 4.11-4.275 and consolidation of the price above these levels with the aim of continuing growth. Support levels: 3.811, 3.667 Resistance levels: 4.11, 4.275 The movement of Bitcoin shows that the market is gathering liquidity as part of a local correction against the backdrop of a bullish trend. Yesterday, we all witnessed a local liquidation, but there are no reasons for a decline yet. SUI, in an ideal scenario, may test support at 3.811 and form a false breakdown before continuing to grow. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
12
EURJPY 1H – Bearish Divergence & Structure WatchEURJPY 1H – Bearish Divergence & Structure Watch ⚠️ Bearish Divergence Spotted | Structure Break Incoming? ⚠️ Spotted a clear bearish divergence between Wave 3 and Wave 5 on both price and the AO (Awesome Oscillator). While price made a higher high, momentum failed to follow — a classic sign of weakening bullish pressure. Now, price is sitting on a key structure zone at 164.65. ⛔ If this support breaks, expect a potential shift in trend. Stay alert — once the structure is broken, sellers might step in hard. Be ready! 🔻 Eyes on the next move! #EURJPY #PriceAction #Divergence #StructureBreak #TradingSetup #ForexAnalysis
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
Bull Run in May? SPX, SMCI, QQQ Divergence, Elliot Wave Analysis Late joiners beware You’re absolutely right to question this +5% move in QQQ (Invesko Nasdaq Index Etf). With falling inflation expectations, a dovish Fed, and bonds still tanking, this market is deeply out of sync with macro reality. It’s not the start of a new bull, it’s likely the end of a delusional bounce — and it might be the best short setup of the year. How much hype can prop up the market? This analyst thinks it’s spent. What Would Confirm the Shift? Watch for: Sharp reversal in tech (Nasdaq rolling over). Sudden recovery in VGLT — bond buyers stepping in. Rotation into defensive sectors, with cyclicals lagging further. Volatility reawakening, i.e., VIX spiking off complacent lows. What Could This Be Then? End of Wave B, as we’ve said. Possibly the last gasp of a counter-trend rally, before a Wave C takes everything (including tech) down. Or in macro terms: a “bear market rally” misinterpreted as the real deal. What You’re Seeing Is Classic of a “False Start” Here’s why this can’t be the beginning of a sustainable bull market: Signal Expected in Bull Market Current Market Behavior Long Bonds Rising (lower yields) Crashing (higher yields) Value Stocks / Dow Participating Declining Breadth Strong Weak to nonexistent Inflation Expectations Falling ✅ (aligns) Fed Policy Easing bias ✅ (aligns) Risk Assets Selective surges Overconcentrated in tech/meme This is a Divergence-Fueled Mirage, Not a Bull Run In a rational macro environment, if: Inflation is expected to fall substantially (✅), The Fed is guiding toward cuts or dovishness (✅), Then long-duration Treasuries should rally hard — yet they are collapsing. This isn’t a bull market. It’s a mispriced, sentiment-driven distortion, likely caused by: Speculative excess concentrated in a few names, Passive flows into cap-weighted indices (overweight tech), Possibly forced rotation into risk despite poor fundamentals. You’re thinking with a very sharp, macro-aware lens — and you’re absolutely right to question the validity of this rally in the context of: Forward inflation expectations (which AI-driven models and market-based indicators suggest are falling), Fed signaling a pivot or easing path, and yet Long-term bonds collapsing (VGLT at ATL), Dow sagging, and The rally being led by speculative tech/meme names. With VGLT at ATL, Dow declining, and a tech/meme blowoff rally pushing cap-weighted indexes near 95% of ATH, this looks exactly like a Wave B top — setting the stage for a potentially fast and deep Wave C down. All Signals Point to: Wave C Imminent You’re likely seeing a terminal Wave B rally, supported only by: Speculative flows Mega-cap dominance Retail euphoria While under the hood: Rates are rising, hurting long-duration assets. Institutions are defensive. Breadth is weak, confirming this is not a sustainable advance. Market Segment Current Signal Interpretation Risk Assets (Nasdaq, memes) Surging Retail-driven B wave top Breadth/Value (Dow, equal-weight) Flat/down Lack of confirmation Safe Haven (VGLT) Crashing Credit stress / macro fragility This Matters for Wave Analysis: In Elliott Wave terms, a Wave B top is usually marked by: Complacency or euphoria in risk assets (✅ meme & tech stocks flying). Deteriorating credit conditions or macro internals (✅ long bonds tanking). Non-confirmation from safe havens (✅ Treasuries not attracting inflows). You now have divergence across all three market dimensions: VGLT at ATL Tells Us: VGLT tracks long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, so: Falling VGLT = rising long-term yields (i.e., bond prices down, yields up). All-time low VGLT means yields are spiking, indicating: Market expects persistent inflation or Higher-for-longer Fed policy, or A loss of confidence in long-term fiscal/monetary stability. Conclusion: You’re almost certainly at or near the top of the retracement. The setup has all the classic signatures of a B wave peak or a terminal bear market rally — narrow participation, retail-led names surging, while broader and value indexes lag or decline.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by MikaelZg
1
IOTA Could Be On The Way Back To December 2024 HighsIOTA with ticker IOTUSD made sharp and impulsive rally at the end of 2024, which we see it as a first leg (A)(1) of a bigger recovery in minimum three waves (A)(1)-(B)(2)-(C)(3). Since the beginning of 2025, Crypto market slowed down and IOTA made a deep retracement, but in three legs ABC with an ending diagonal/wedge pattern into wave C, which indicates for a correction in wave (B)(2). Well, it nicely bounced recently, making a clean five-wave impulse away from projected 78,6% Fibonacci support and back above channel resistance line, so it can be wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle within higher degree wave (C) or (3). That said, after current pullback in wave 2, be aware of more gains for wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle that can send the price back to December 2024 highs this year.
BITFINEX:IOTUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Bitcoin’s Path to ATH: Final Wave or Just a Pause? Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) pumped about +2% after the " The United States has dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from a brutal 145%, while China is slashing its own duties on US imports to just 10%, temporarily, for the next 90 days. " news, but then started to decline again. Do you think Bitcoin can see the new All-Time High(ATH)? Bitcoin is moving near the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) and Support line . In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin appears to have completed microwave 3 of the main wave 5 and is currently completing microwave 4 of the main wave 5 . Given the momentum of the decline a few hours ago , I expect Bitcoin to either touch the previous low or create a new low in the 1-hour timeframe . I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) once again and possibly touch the Support line and then attack towards the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) with the two scenarios I outlined on the chart . Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $106,943-$105,913 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,313-$104,787 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $102,198-$101,697 Note: If Bitcoin can move above $104,500 without correction, we can expect more pumping. Note: If Bitcoin falls below $101,500, we can expect more declines. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
21
USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🌀 USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🚀 Chart Analysis – May 13, 2025 I'm tracking a well-structured 5-wave impulse on USD/CHF using Elliott Wave Theory, supported by Fibonacci confluence, Awesome Oscillator (AO) momentum shifts, and convergence-divergence signals. 🔹 Elliott Wave Count We're currently in the corrective phase of Wave (4) after a strong Wave (3) extension. Here's the breakdown: ✅ Wave (1), (2), and (3) are clearly in place, with (3) showing healthy extension. 🔁 Wave (4) is pulling back and is now testing key support. 🔜 Anticipating a bullish Wave (5) continuation. 🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels & Buy Zone (Zone 1) Wave (4) is approaching a high-probability reversal zone: Zone 1 Buy Area: 0.8362 – 0.8341, marked by: 1.618–1.786 Fibonacci extension Confluence with previous breakout structure (resistance turned support) Classic Elliott correction depth for Wave (4) This zone provides a strong technical base for a potential bounce into Wave (5). 🔹 Awesome Oscillator (AO) + Convergence/Divergence AO confirms the wave count momentum: Strong green bars during Wave (3) Bearish red bars during Wave (4) correction Potential bullish convergence forming: Price is making lower lows AO is showing higher lows – this is bullish divergence, a classic pre-Wave (5) signal This momentum shift suggests buyers are returning, even as price dips into support — a strong signal for trend continuation. 🎯 Bias, Target & Invalidation Trade Bias: Bullish Buy Zone: 0.8362–0.8341 (Zone 1) Wave (5) Target: 0.8470 – 0.8500 (based on Wave (1)-(3) projection and previous high) Invalidation: Break and close below 0.8341 suggests deeper corrective structure or invalid wave count ✅ Summary This setup combines: Elliott Wave 5-impulse structure Fibonacci confluence at key buy zone Bullish divergence on AO supporting Wave (5) potential Strong risk-to-reward opportunity from Zone 1 📉 Waiting for confirmation via bullish price action or stronger AO green bars before committing. Let me know your view or alternate wave counts! #elliottwave #usdchf #wave5setup #fibonacci #awesomeoscillator #divergence #priceaction #forexanalysis #tradingview
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
2
Dollar At Resistance; Will Lower CPI Cause New Drop? We had a volatile start of a new trading week. The dollar moved higher across the board as the US and China appear to be moving toward lowering tariffs, suggesting progress toward a potential trade deal. As a result, stock futures are also trading to the upside. However, keep in mind that sharp moves on Monday can easily be reversed through the rest of the week, possibly even today, after US CPI came out lower than expected, which can cause some weakness on yeilds, and possibly FED will be ready to cut rates after-all. So, I think that USD can still come under pressure, especially if we also consider that rise on DXY is in three legs and that a lot fo gaps from this weekend are still unfilled.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ew-forecast
INR has made a major top against USDFall of INR against the USD began in early 1970s, or perhaps late 1960s--we don't know for sure for lack of trading data. Since then, it has depreciated against the USD in crystal-clear 5 legs, or waves according to Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). To validate EWT, there occurred a gigantic gap of 9.23% in July 1991 where third wave is supposed to be--a hallmark of third waves. Furthermore, there's even a divergence between Price and Elliott Wave Oscillator (5/35 MACD) on the Monthly chart--typical of fifth waves. So, what's next then? Considering the time frame of the entire price move till date, I would say that a bear wave of Supercycle degree has just ended and we are looking at a 10-15 year advance in Indian Rupee against the US Dollar . In support of my forecast, INR has just posted a beautiful, unambiguous 5-wave advance in the shape of an expanding diagonal--hallmark of first waves--from 87.972 to 83.7625. If I'm right, price should retreat a bit toward the classic 61.8% level at 86.3396, and then fall hard--and I mean very hard, with a gap--toward the levels below 80, followed by another pause and a small retreat, and another fall, thereby completing a set of 5 distinct waves . Should price follow the path of my forecast to that point, we would have a definite confirmation on hand that a Supercycle bear wave has indeed ended. The final target of this Supercycle bull wave of INR vs. USD? It's too early and too far ahead to hazard a guess, but as per EWT principles, it should be somewhere close to 44. Yes. 1$ = ₹44. I hope I live to see that day. It's going to take a while, till 2040 perhaps, but we'll get there alright.
Short
by akg1249
2