HLI: Four Boxes, One TruthEvery chart tells a story, but sometimes... you need boxes to make sense of the chaos. Here's how the price action of HLI unfolded through four carefully framed boxes, each revealing a new chapter of this market narrative.
Box 1: The Fall Begins
The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook.
Every wave fits: clean subdivisions, sharp acceleration in wave 3, and a modest wave 4.
This structure confirms one thing: this was no correction — it was the beginning of something bigger.
I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W?
Box 2: The Deceptive Pause
Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93 .
Classic fakeout setup — just enough strength to draw in bulls, but not enough to erase the previous drop.
The form and proportion suggest it was just a connector, not a trend changer.
I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot.
Box 3: The Deep Cut
Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99.
This leg confirms the pattern: it mirrors Box 1, creating the signature 5-3-5 of a zig-zag — or the W-Y of a complex correction.
Final labeling:
If Box 1 was Wave A, this was Wave C — and together they form a Zig-Zag .
If Box 1 was Wave W, this became Wave Y, closing a potential WXY correction .
A clear bearish tale. Or was it?
Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds
The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard.
Structurally, it’s looking like a clear 5-wave impulse, with sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v all marked and playing out.
But wait — if this is just another corrective X wave, it's way too aggressive… isn't it?
Here’s the plot twist:
If price gets rejected below $191.99, this might be Wave X2 in a massive WXYXZ correction.
But if it extends beyond 192 and pushes toward $200, then forget the correction — this rally is likely a new trend, and Wave Z may never arrive.
Key Invalidation Levels
$191.99: The upper limit for X2 — breach it, and the entire corrective scenario collapses.
$161.00: The lower guardrail for the impulse — drop below this, and the impulsive interpretation gets voided.
Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely)
MACD: Momentum slowing.
RSI: Hovering near 50. Neutral, but bears need a breakdown.
Closing Thoughts
Four boxes.
Three corrective legs.
Two competing counts.
One impending breakout — or breakdown.
The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t.
So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter.
Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series
