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Elliott Wave

GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Friday's NFP. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD stops and forms consolidation within the range 2926 - 2894.9. A false break of support may bring the market back to its senses amid the bearish dollar rally A weaker dollar and expectations of Fed policy easing are supporting demand for the metal despite a pause in Trump's tariff measures. Traders are waiting for key NFP data that could determine the future trajectory of the dollar and Fed policy. For today, all eyes are on Initial Jobless Claims. Technically, gold within the 2926 - 2894 range is looking to test the liquidity zone on the support side as there is an unfilled fvg below 2894.9. Against the backdrop of gold's bullish trend and falling dollar, the chances of a rebound are quite high Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2894.9, 2878.7 Price may test the daily low or fvg, form a false breakdown of one of the mentioned support zones and continue to rise after capturing liquidity within the global uptrend Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
US Dollar Is Falling ImpulsivelyTrump tariffs and trade wars continue to dominate the market, and we have seen a strong sell-off in the US dollar recently. This reinforces the idea that the US may not win this battle easily, as some other countries have already responded and are trying to hit back. So it’s not a surprise that in this uncertainty stocks are also in a consolidation, but approaching a potential support. Finally the USD is coming down, now breaking some key support at 106 which is an important indication for a resumption of a downtrend, especially if we consider that the current sell-off is sharp and can be third of a third wave. So, a bearish trend can stay in play for much lower levels, mainly because Tariffs are delayed again, until April 2nd. Markets are stabilizing and recovering, while USDollar - DXY remains under bearish pressure with space for more weakness. Risk-On sentiment back?
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
USDJPY → Readiness to break the daily support levelFX:USDJPY is testing strong key support at 148.64 for a breakdown. A falling dollar could affect further movement The falling dollar is supporting the Japanese Yen, thus we may see the currency pair falling. The price is trying to break the support of the daily level. A pre-breakdown consolidation of 150.3 - 148.64 is formed relative to this support. The last retest of the level ended with a small false breakdown, indicating that there is no one to defend the support anymore, there was no reaction except for another local consolidation, the purpose of which is to accumulate the potential to break the support. Resistance levels: 150.3, 150.95 Support levels: 148.64, 147.17 The focus is on the level of 148.64 concerning which the market is struggling. The bulls have little chance to hold this level, as the dollar's fall exerts quite a lot of pressure. The breakdown and fixing of the price below 148.64 may provoke a fall to 147 - 144. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
EURCAD Wave Analysis – 6 March 2025 - EURCAD broke multi-year resistance 1.5100 - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5770 EURCAD currency pair is rising sharply after the earlier breakout of the powerful multi-year resistance 1.5100, which has stopped all upward impulses from the start of 2021. The breakout of the resistance 1.5100 accelerated the short-term impulse wave 3 of the longer-term upward impulse sequence (3) from the end of 2024. Given the clear multiyear uptrend, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.5770, the former major price barrier from 2020 and the target for the completion of the active weekly impulse wave 3.
Long
by FxProGlobal
$SPY March 6, 2025AMEX:SPY March 6, 2025 15 Minutes. As expected, we had SPY around 575. Taking support and trying to form a base. Important because 570 is 200 averages in daily. Once 570 is broken we are in trouble. Now for the rise 572.74 to 586.58 to 573.08 we can expect 588- 594 as target provided 573 is held. We rea having oscillator divergence in 15 and 30 minutes but not in 60 minutes. So, i expect some volatility today/tomorrow for these 575 levels. Not the time to longs. At the moment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
71
AMD - Interesting chart! Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is an American multinational company specializing in semiconductors, microprocessors, and graphics cards. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, AMD was founded in 1969 and has become a key player in high-performance computing, competing with companies like Intel and Nvidia. Financial Results 2024: In 2024, AMD achieved record financial results. The company reported an annual revenue of $25.8 billion, with a gross margin of 49%. Operating income was $1.9 billion, while net income stood at $1.6 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, the gross margin was 53%, operating income reached $6.1 billion, and net income was $5.4 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $3.31. (amd.com) Outlook for 2025: For the first quarter of 2025, AMD forecasts revenue of approximately $7.1 billion, representing a 30% year-over-year increase. However, a sequential decline of 7% is expected due to seasonal factors. (digitimes.com) Future Projects: AMD is focusing on several key innovations: Zen 6 Architecture: Expected in 2026, the Zen 6 ("Morpheus") architecture will be built using TSMC’s 3nm and 2nm processes. The desktop processors, codenamed "Medusa," and server chips, named "Venice," will represent the next generation of high-performance CPUs. (en.wikipedia.org) RDNA 4 Graphics Cards: AMD has confirmed the launch of its next-generation RDNA 4-based GPUs in early 2025. These cards will bring significant improvements in gaming performance, ray tracing, and AI capabilities. (theverge.com) Artificial Intelligence: AMD is heavily investing in AI, recently launching the MI300 chip, which is rapidly becoming one of its fastest-growing products. AMD’s AI strategy spans from personal computing to large-scale cloud data centers, with collaborations involving Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle. (time.com) With a strong financial foundation and a clear vision for the future, AMD continues to drive innovation in the semiconductor industry, strengthening its position in the global market.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Tesi_Daniela_Radice
Bullish for Amazon. AMZNSupposing end off Wave A of correction, quite a deep one retracing half the previous bullish impulse. RSX momentum is divergent, heading toward OBOS line, divergent Bollinger Band derivative indicator. A strong change in texture of candlesticks is noted. Signals on both VZO with offset and Ehlers Stochastic RSI have already thrown off signals a few candles ago. Fibonacci points picked to coalesce with data already available for possible constellations/clusters, i.e. 0.5 Fibonacci coincides with MIDAS curve.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Rykin_Capital
Back to 0.50?The next important NZD/USD data to watch will be published tomorrow when the US publishes its initial jobless claims. Is expected to show that a forecast from 242 k to 222k, which can be positive for the dollar index. The Fed will, therefore, maintain its hawkish view if these numbers are correct since they will signal that prices remain significantly high. There are other inflationary risks ahead. Donald Trump has pledged to impose new and bigger tariffs from top countries. On top of this, he is deporting millions of undocumented migrants, many who work in industries like construction and agriculture. All these factors explain why US bond yields have rocketed to the highest level in two years, with the 30-year moving to 5%. On the other hand, the RBNZ has continued to cut interest rates, and analysts expect the trend to continue in the coming months. It slashed them from last year’s high of 5.50% to the current 4.25%. As such, the local currency has fallen as the divergence between the Fed and the RBNZ continues. Technically, we broke a converging triangle last December, with can lead us to further decline, possibly to the monthly bullish order block at 0.49690. This will complete wave y of superior Y.
Short
by TRADINGACPVIP
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 5 March 2025 - EURUSD broke the resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0900 EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 1.0625 (former monthly high from December), 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January. The breakup of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave C of the medium-term ABC correction B from January. Given the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, EURUSD can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 1.0900, the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C.
Long
by FxProGlobal
Reasons for dollar to stabilizeDollar strength is expected to stabilize or persist into 2025 for several reasons: Economic growth differentials: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, outpacing the 1.7% growth forecast for all developed markets. This is driven by superior productivity growth, higher business investment and fewer labor supply issues compared to other developed markets. Such robust growth, which has contributed to inflation remaining above 2%, may lead the Fed to halt rate cuts sooner than expected. This makes a dollar weakening unlikely in the short term. Monetary policy differentials: The increasing divergence in global growth has led to a greater disparity in central bank policies worldwide. As a result, the gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994. These differentials may remain elevated, as markets are currently pricing in only a limited number of Fed cuts next year (44bps), compared to 110bps for the ECB and rate hikes of 47bps in Japan. Policy changes: The upcoming administration's focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, increasing tariffs and deregulating industries could spur business growth and sustain higher interest rates, supporting the dollar. President-elect Trump has also discussed imposing tariffs or other measures on countries that challenge the dollar's trade dominance or reserve currency status. Even with the factors supporting the dollar, its ascent is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Currently, the dollar is two standard deviations above its 50-year average, suggesting limited room for further appreciation. Historically, the dollar has alternated between periods of strength and weakness, making a downturn likely at some point, though the timing is uncertain. Additionally, the U.S.'s persistent trade balance deficit, at 4.2% of GDP as of September 2024, poses a long-term constraint, highlighting a structural challenge that could eventually pressure the currency. A strong dollar can hurt international company performance for U.S.-based investors. It can also negatively impact U.S. companies with significant international exposure and U.S. exports by making goods more expensive abroad. While a stronger dollar could bolster the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative in 2025, investors should carefully assess its potential impact on their portfolios. Technically, we had a cup and handle formation, which we previously broke. Now, we are in the pullback of the break, and it make a triangle for wave 4. Remember wave dos was a flat. For that matter, this strong down momemtun, could be a retracement or wave 2 of 5.
TVC:DXY
by TRADINGACPVIP
Channel Top?The Fed’s approach to interest rate cuts will be pivotal for gold prices. BMI forecasts acumulative reduction of 125 basis points (bps), bringing rates to 3.50% by the end of 2025. However, the Fed's decisions will hinge on inflation, labor market, and economic data, introducing uncertainty. If rate cuts are slower or smaller than expected, gold could face downward pressure due to its lack of yield. Conversely, aggressive cuts could drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Strength of the U.S. Dollar A robust U.S. dollar could spell trouble for gold prices. The dollar’s recent rally, fueled by higher growth expectations, fiscal deficits, and inflationary pressures from trade policies, has reduced gold’s appeal. While BMI expects the dollar to remain strong initially, it could soften as global risk assets perform well. Geopolitical and Economic Risks Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle Eastern conflicts, and rising trade disputes under Trump’s presidency, will provide some support for gold as a safe haven. However, these risks may not be sufficient to counteract other bearish factors. On the economic front, BMI forecasts global growth to remain stable at 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, with risks on both sides. Upside factors include potential tax cuts and increased oil production in the U.S., while downside risks stem from escalating tariffs, supply-side inflation, and regional conflicts. Inflation Dynamics Inflation, a traditional driver of gold demand, is expected to ease in 2025. While trade-related risks could spur localized inflationary pressures, the overall outlook suggests a slowdown in gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Technically, we might me at the top of the channel, were 3 wave ended at 261.8% extension. For that matter, we might see a 38.2 or 50% correction before the beginning of wave 5.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TRADINGACPVIP
Gold’s Three Soldiers Pattern Signal: A Strong Rally Ahead?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is breaking the Resistance zone($2,930-$2,916) and the Neckline of the Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Pattern . According to the Elliott wave theory, the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) is over, and we must wait for the next impulse wave . Also, the Three Soldiers Candlestick Pattern is a good sign to break the Resistance zone($2,930-$2,916) and neckline . I expect Gold to rise to at least $2,953 , if the Resistance zone($2,957-$2,940) is broken, we should wait for Gold to rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Do you think Gold can make a new All-Time High(ATH)? Note: If Gold goes below $2,887, it should expect more gold Dumps. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
2