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Elliott Wave

More downside for BK?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 5 and around the end of Minor wave 3. The overall target bottom for Intermediate wave 5 and simultaneously Primary wave 1 is below Intermediate wave 3's low of 79.2315 from 12 March 2025. A movement extension to target is 78.00738 (114.59%) or 77.3584 (123.607%) and is depicted by the far right levels and percentages. Intermediate wave 3 was 31 trading hours long. The application of Fibonacci percentages to 31 trading hours is displayed by the vertical lines. The green vertical line represents the start of wave 5. The solid yellow line is 31 bars (100% of wave 3's trading hours). 161% and 261% are the light blue dotted lines thereafter. The current target bottom is around midday on 10 April. If we are currently in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5, the target bottoms are 80.2234 (114.59%) or 79.5333 (138.197%) and depicted by the middle levels and percentages. The hourly chart is currently in the middle of signaling wave 3 which likely means we are looking to finish Minor wave 3 with today's close or within the first hour of trading tomorrow. As of the open tomorrow Minor wave 3 would only be 13 hours long which is shorter than wave 1. This likely means Minor wave 5 will be 13 hours or less whenever it begins. I will begin more specific calculations on Primary wave 2's top once we finished Primary wave 1 likely next week. The very preliminary estimate if Primary wave 1 ends around 11:30 on 10 April would have seen Primary wave 1 last 198 trading hours and drop nearly 13.00 points. Primary wave 2 could top around 85.38 around 7 May.
NYSE:BKShort
by StockSignaler
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 3 April 2025 - Nasdaq-100 index broke support level 18820.00 - Likely to fall to support level 18295.00 Nasdaq-100 index recently broke the key support level 18820.00 (the previous monthly low from the end of March). The breakout of this support level 18820.00 accelerated the minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from February. Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 18295.00 (former monthly low from September) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses to 18000.00.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by FxProGlobal
Elliott Wave | Bearish End Confirmed? | Last Chance Before the DBINANCE:SOLUSDT The current structure suggests we are approaching a key decision point. Price has completed an a-b-b correction and is now reacting within the 61.8%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone, which could trigger a relief bounce before further decline. 📉 **Bearish Outlook:** - The recent structure confirms a completed a-b-c move, leading to a potential Wave (B) retracement. - The final bearish target lies in the "End of Bear" zone (~109 USD), where a final capitulation may occur. - If we break far below **109 USD**, expect an accelerated sell-off. 📈 **Bullish Scenario?** - The 78.6%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone could push SOL towards a short-term bounce before resuming the bearish trend. - A valid long trade is possible if this support holds. ⚠️ Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Bullish Rejection Zone: 78.6% - 88.7% Fibo ❌ Break Below 105 USD = Full Bearish Confirmation --- ### 📌 **Trading Plan:** 1️⃣ Potential Short-Term Long if 78.6% - 88.7% Fibo holds. 2️⃣ Target: Resistance before wave (C) completes. 3️⃣ Short Confirmation** after rejection OR break below 105 USD. ‼️ Risk Management: - If price fails to hold, a deeper correction is expected. - Trade with proper stop-loss & confirmations! 💬 What do you think? Will we see a short-term bounce before the bear takes over?
Long
by ElliotXSolana
BTC - Elliott Wave Impulse and Corrective StructureThis chart illustrates an Elliott Wave pattern on BTCUSDT in the 4-hour timeframe. The market initially completed a 5-wave impulse move to the upside, labeled as (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), signaling a strong bullish trend. Following the completion of Wave (5), a corrective ABC structure has begun, indicating a potential retracement phase. - The 5-wave impulse structure suggests a completed bullish cycle. - Wave (A) marks the initial corrective decline, followed by a recovery in Wave (B). - Wave (C) is in progress, likely targeting lower levels before a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. Traders should watch key support and resistance levels to identify potential reversal zones or continuation patterns. If BTC finds strong support at a key level, it could indicate a buying opportunity for the next bullish wave. Conversely, a deeper breakdown could confirm extended correction. Always apply proper risk management and confirm setups with additional technical indicators.
Short
by wdstrades
21
Is gold going to be eclipsed? ------------------------- Timeframe: 240 Min ------------------------- The price action suggests a completed impulse structure originating from the 2833 low, with gold now trading at an all-time high. Based on cluster zones and Fibonacci extensions, wave (5) still has the potential to extend toward the 3150-3200 range. This zone represents a key resistance level where buying momentum may slow down, signaling an impending shift in market dynamics. Once wave (5) completes, it will mark the end of wave ((3)) of a higher degree, setting the stage for a corrective move. A retracement toward the previous wave (4) level is expected as wave ((4)) develops, aligning with historical corrective behavior after extended rallies. This phase will provide crucial insights into the market’s next major move. Stay tuned for further updates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Money_Dictators
GBPCAD - Is Bullish Breakout Ahead?TF: 4h GBPCAD is initiating along opportunity by completing 4th intermediate wave at 1.83464 . We can expect a retracement then reversal with near the lower trendline of the parallel channel. Once price comes down, we will have the opportunity to go long with minimum stop level at low of the wave 4 at 1.83640 . The bullish scenario is capable GBPCAD to provide 1.8654 - 1.8748 targets to the buyers. If the breakdown occurs, wave (4) will go deep. We update this chart time to time. Traders should only buy after a clear reversal.
by Money_Dictators
1
Cable Is Trading Impulsively HigherCable is making a very nice and strong extension higher on the 4-hour time frame, so it appears to be impulsive. We should be aware of further upside, especially as the market has broken out of a base channel, which typically happens within wave three of three. In fact price is now even higher after a triangle in wave four so wave 5 of red (3) is in progress as expected, but it can target 1.32, so be aware of a new red higher degree wave (4) correction before the bullish trend for wave (5) resumes. Ideal support is at 1.29 – 1.28 area.
by ew-forecast
GBP/AUD Prepares for a major correction? The current technical situation of the GBP/AUD peaks the eye of the bears on the weekly chart From a technical perspective we have 2 factors that that provide interest to the sellers - a full Elliot wave sequence is in the process of completion with the 5th wave at terminal status, even tough this might move higher, but... -i believe this is potential tipping point , considering the price action hasn't visited this area since march 2020 (and considering the amount of rejection it faced back then, there is a chance this might happen again If the correction plays out we could possibly see some down moves all the way to psychological level of 2.000 Even if your not a weekly trader, keeping this information in mind might help with future trades on the pair on the down side , just remember to take risks into consideration - Always make your own analysis before taking a financial decision - Risk/Reward ratio is your friend This is not financial advice !
Short
by Chrispy3000
GOLD → Consolidation. News. False breakdown. Growth?FX:XAUUSD and TVC:DXY in consolidation ahead of important news and Trump's speech. Economic risks are rising and the future outlook depends on fundamental data... Trade tensions support gold demand. Trump may impose global tariffs of up to 20% which will increase risks to the economy. Investors are piling into gold in anticipation, pushing its price to a record $3,150 A key factor is the details of the tariffs. If tariffs are softer than expected, gold could fall to intermediate support zones. If the trade war escalates, the rise could continue beyond 3150 Economic risks are rising and gold may test 3107 - 3100 support before rising further. Technically, 3100 - 3107 is a zone of interest and liquidity. If bulls hold the support, gold will continue to rise. Otherwise, gold may form a correction towards 3075 - 3065 Resistance levels: 3126, 3135, 3147 Support levels: 3107, 3100, 3091 The price is correcting to consolidation support in the moment. A strong and sharp fall is fraught with the risk of a liquidity grab and a false breakdown. In this case, gold may strengthen to one of the key resistances. But the further and medium-term development of events depends on the evening news.... Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
21
Calibrating Trading Indicators for Different MarketsCalibrating Trading Indicators for Different Markets: A Beginner's Guide (Simple Steps to Adjust RSI , MACD , and Other Tools for Better Results) Key Idea : Just like you'd tune a guitar differently for rock vs. classical music, trading tools like RSI or MACD need adjustments depending on what you're trading (stocks, crypto, forex) and how it moves. This guide shows you how to tweak these tools using price swings (pivot points) to make them work better for your specific asset. --- Why "One Size Fits All" Doesn't Work Most traders use default settings for indicators (like RSI's 14-day period). But these defaults were created for "average " markets. Real markets aren't average! Example: - Crypto ( CME:BTC1! ) : Super volatile → Needs faster, more sensitive indicators. - Blue-Chip Stocks ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) : Less wild swings → Needs slower, smoother indicators. If you use the same RSI settings for both, you'll get bad signals. Calibration fixes this. --- The Pivot Point Method for Calibration One effective approach to calibration is measuring the natural rhythm of price swings between high and low points. Here's how to do it step by step: Step 1: Find Pivot Points on Your Chart Pivot points are like "price turning points." Use TradingView's ZigZag indicator (or draw them manually) to spot these swings. How to Add ZigZag on TradingView : 1. Open your chart. 2. Click "Indicators" → Search " ZigZag " → Select it. 3. Adjust settings (defaults work fine for starters). The ZigZag will draw lines between significant highs (peaks) and lows (valleys). --- Step 2: Measure the "Rhythm" of the Market Count the bars (candles) between pivot points to find the market's natural cycle. Example : - If Bitcoin swings from peak to peak every 14 bars on average, its "cycle" is 14 bars. - If Apple does this every 16 bars, its cycle is 16 bars. In the picture above, we used the Williams Fractal to identify pivots. Formula for Indicator Settings : - RSI Period = Half the average cycle → If cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days. - MACD Settings : Fast EMA = ¼ cycle, Slow EMA = ½ cycle → Cycle = 16 → Fast EMA = 4, Slow EMA = 8 --- Step 3: Test Your Calibrated Indicators Backtest on TradingView : 1. Add your indicator (e.g., RSI) with the new settings. 2. Use the Strategy Tester (click "Add to Chart" → " RSI Strategy ") to see if signals improve. Look For : - Fewer false signals (e.g., RSI saying "oversold" too early). - Clearer trends (MACD crossovers matching price moves). --- Calibrating Popular Indicators (Simple Rules) 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index) - Default : 14 days. - Calibrated : Half the average cycle length. - Example : Cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days. Why It Works : Shorter RSI reacts faster to volatile markets (like crypto). 2. MACD - Default : 12, 26, 9. - Calibrated : - Fast EMA = ¼ of cycle. - Slow EMA = ½ of cycle. - Signal Line = ⅙ of cycle. - Example : Cycle = 20 → Fast = 5, Slow = 10, Signal = 3. Why It Works : Matches the asset's natural momentum shifts. 3. Williams %R - Default : 14 days. - Calibrated : Same as RSI (half the cycle). --- How to Avoid Common Mistakes Mistake 1 : Overfitting (Making It Too Perfect for the Past) - Problem : If you calibrate too precisely to old data, it might fail in the future. - Fix : Test on 2 types of data: 1. Training Data : First 70% of your chart (to calibrate). 2. Testing Data : Last 30% (to check if it still works). Mistake 2 : Ignoring Market Changes - Problem : What works today might not work next month. - Fix : Recheck your settings every 3 months or after big news (e.g., Fed rate hikes). --- Free Tools to Help (No Coding Needed) 1. TradingView's "Auto-Detect Cycle" Scripts Search for indicators like "Cycle", "RSI Adaptive" or " Rainbow Adaptive RSI " in TradingView's public library. These automatically calculate cycle lengths (Not tested). 2. Adaptive MACD/RSI Indicators Try pre-built adaptive indicators like: - Adaptive MACD : Adjusts itself based on volatility. - Dynamic Pivot : Uses pivots to set stop-loss and take-profit levels. --- Building a Simple Pivot Calibration System Basic ZigZag Calibrator Method : 1. Add ZigZag to your chart. 2. Manually count the bars between 5 recent swings. 3. Calculate the average → Divide by 2 → Use that number for your RSI/MACD. Example : - Swings: 12, 14, 16, 10, 8 bars → Average = 12. - Calibrated RSI = 6 days. --- Why This Works (Without the Math) Markets move in waves. By matching your indicator's speed to the wave length, you "surf" the trend instead of fighting it. Research shows adaptive methods like this beat default settings. The Science Behind It When you calibrate to an instrument's natural rhythm: - Oscillators (RSI, %R) catch extremes at the right time - Trend indicators (MACD) signal changes faster - Volatility bands (Bollinger Bands) expand and contract appropriately --- A Step Further: Multi-Timeframe Calibration For even better results, calibrate across timeframes: 1. Calculate cycles on daily charts for swing trading 2. Calculate cycles on 4-hour charts for day trading 3. Use both calibrated indicators together for confirmation --- Final Tips for Beginners 1. Start Small : Calibrate one indicator (like RSI) first. 2. Use Free Tools : TradingView has thousands of free scripts to automate calculations. 3. Keep Records : Document what settings work for which assets. 4. Be Patient : Finding the right calibration takes time, but the results are worth it. Calibration isn't about being perfect—it's about making your tools work better for specific markets . Happy trading!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by TradeVizion
3
The analysis focuses on the short-term to medium-term timeframe.The analysis focuses on the short-term to medium-term timeframe. Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: At the current price of 157.04, the market is in a tug-of-war between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears). Bulls are defending key support levels near 152.48 (Fibonacci 100% retracement of Wave C) and 154.34 (Expanded Flat target). A hold above these levels could signal a potential reversal. Bears are attacking resistance levels at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100% projection of Wave C) and 162.82 (Expanded Flat target). A break below 152.48 could accelerate downward momentum. Recent Price History: The market has been in a downtrend recently, with the price dropping from 191.18 (July 10, 2024) to 157.04. Key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 161.8% retracement at 159.84) and Elliott Wave patterns (e.g., Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate) have guided this decline. Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI at 47.51) suggest the downtrend may be losing steam, but the MACD histogram turning positive hints at a potential short-term bounce. Current Sentiment (Technical & News): Technical Indicators: Mixed signals. RSI (47.51) is neutral, while MACD shows a bullish crossover (histogram turning positive). The price is below key moving averages (e.g., 200-day SMA at 167.35), indicating a bearish bias. News Sentiment: Mixed to slightly negative. Ad revenue pressures and regulatory risks weigh on sentiment, but long-term growth catalysts (AI, cloud) provide optimism. Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating despite near-term challenges. Synthesis: The technical picture aligns with the news—short-term bearishness (price below MAs, ad revenue concerns) but potential for a reversal if support holds (undervaluation, bullish MACD). Key Levels & Momentum: The price is currently below the 50-day SMA (161.89) and 200-day SMA (167.35), signaling bearish dominance. Momentum is fading (RSI neutral, Stochastic not oversold), but the MACD histogram suggests a possible short-term bounce. 2. Elliott Wave Analysis (Contextualized to Current Price) Relevant Elliott Wave Patterns: Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate (Valid): Suggests the downtrend may be nearing completion, with Wave 5 potentially ending near 152.48-154.34 (Fibonacci 100% projection). Expanded Flat Upward Candidate (Potentially Valid): If the price holds above 152.48, this pattern could signal a corrective rally toward 162.82. Wave Count vs. Indicators/Sentiment: The Diagonal Ending pattern contradicts the bearish news sentiment but aligns with oversold technicals (RSI, MACD). This divergence suggests a potential reversal if support holds. The Expanded Flat pattern would confirm a bullish reversal if the price breaks above 160.31. Near-Term Projections: Downside: A break below 152.48 could extend losses to 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci projection). Upside: A hold above 152.48 and break above 160.31 could target 162.82 (Expanded Flat target) and 167.35 (200-day SMA). 3. Strategy Derivation (Realistic, Actionable NOW, News Considered) Primary Strategy: WAIT (due to conflicting signals). Why Wait? The technical setup is mixed (bullish MACD vs. bearish MAs), and news sentiment is neutral-to-negative. The upcoming Q1 earnings could add volatility. If Price Holds Support (152.48-154.34): BUY with confirmation (e.g., break above 160.31). Entry Zone: 154.34-156.13 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). Stop-Loss: 151.44 (below recent low). Take Profit: TP1 at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100%), TP2 at 162.82 (Expanded Flat target). Risk/Reward: ~1:2 for TP1. If Price Breaks Below Support (152.48): SELL with confirmation (e.g., break below 150.06). Entry Zone: 152.48-151.44. Stop-Loss: 154.34 (above support). Take Profit: TP1 at 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci), TP2 at 145.90 (Wave 5 projection). News Context Check: Earnings uncertainty and ad revenue pressures favor caution. Reduce position size if trading. 4. Trade Setup (Actionable, Realistic, News Aware) Direction: WAIT (watch key levels). Key Levels to Watch: Upside: 160.31 (breakout confirmation). Downside: 152.48 (breakdown confirmation). News Reminder: Be mindful of Q1 earnings and ad revenue trends. 5. Summary Section ✅ Investor / Long-Term Holder Summary: Key Support: 152.48 (accumulation zone if held). Long-Term Outlook: Undervalued (DCF: $260 vs. $157). Focus on AI/cloud growth. Action: Wait for pullback to 152.48 or break above 167.35 (200-day SMA).
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by samibelca