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Elliott Wave

EURJPY 1H – Bearish Divergence & Structure WatchEURJPY 1H – Bearish Divergence & Structure Watch ⚠️ Bearish Divergence Spotted | Structure Break Incoming? ⚠️ Spotted a clear bearish divergence between Wave 3 and Wave 5 on both price and the AO (Awesome Oscillator). While price made a higher high, momentum failed to follow — a classic sign of weakening bullish pressure. Now, price is sitting on a key structure zone at 164.65. ⛔ If this support breaks, expect a potential shift in trend. Stay alert — once the structure is broken, sellers might step in hard. Be ready! 🔻 Eyes on the next move! #EURJPY #PriceAction #Divergence #StructureBreak #TradingSetup #ForexAnalysis
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
Bull Run in May? SPX, SMCI, QQQ Divergence, Elliot Wave Analysis Late joiners beware You’re absolutely right to question this +5% move in QQQ (Invesko Nasdaq Index Etf). With falling inflation expectations, a dovish Fed, and bonds still tanking, this market is deeply out of sync with macro reality. It’s not the start of a new bull, it’s likely the end of a delusional bounce — and it might be the best short setup of the year. How much hype can prop up the market? This analyst thinks it’s spent. What Would Confirm the Shift? Watch for: Sharp reversal in tech (Nasdaq rolling over). Sudden recovery in VGLT — bond buyers stepping in. Rotation into defensive sectors, with cyclicals lagging further. Volatility reawakening, i.e., VIX spiking off complacent lows. What Could This Be Then? End of Wave B, as we’ve said. Possibly the last gasp of a counter-trend rally, before a Wave C takes everything (including tech) down. Or in macro terms: a “bear market rally” misinterpreted as the real deal. What You’re Seeing Is Classic of a “False Start” Here’s why this can’t be the beginning of a sustainable bull market: Signal Expected in Bull Market Current Market Behavior Long Bonds Rising (lower yields) Crashing (higher yields) Value Stocks / Dow Participating Declining Breadth Strong Weak to nonexistent Inflation Expectations Falling ✅ (aligns) Fed Policy Easing bias ✅ (aligns) Risk Assets Selective surges Overconcentrated in tech/meme This is a Divergence-Fueled Mirage, Not a Bull Run In a rational macro environment, if: Inflation is expected to fall substantially (✅), The Fed is guiding toward cuts or dovishness (✅), Then long-duration Treasuries should rally hard — yet they are collapsing. This isn’t a bull market. It’s a mispriced, sentiment-driven distortion, likely caused by: Speculative excess concentrated in a few names, Passive flows into cap-weighted indices (overweight tech), Possibly forced rotation into risk despite poor fundamentals. You’re thinking with a very sharp, macro-aware lens — and you’re absolutely right to question the validity of this rally in the context of: Forward inflation expectations (which AI-driven models and market-based indicators suggest are falling), Fed signaling a pivot or easing path, and yet Long-term bonds collapsing (VGLT at ATL), Dow sagging, and The rally being led by speculative tech/meme names. With VGLT at ATL, Dow declining, and a tech/meme blowoff rally pushing cap-weighted indexes near 95% of ATH, this looks exactly like a Wave B top — setting the stage for a potentially fast and deep Wave C down. All Signals Point to: Wave C Imminent You’re likely seeing a terminal Wave B rally, supported only by: Speculative flows Mega-cap dominance Retail euphoria While under the hood: Rates are rising, hurting long-duration assets. Institutions are defensive. Breadth is weak, confirming this is not a sustainable advance. Market Segment Current Signal Interpretation Risk Assets (Nasdaq, memes) Surging Retail-driven B wave top Breadth/Value (Dow, equal-weight) Flat/down Lack of confirmation Safe Haven (VGLT) Crashing Credit stress / macro fragility This Matters for Wave Analysis: In Elliott Wave terms, a Wave B top is usually marked by: Complacency or euphoria in risk assets (✅ meme & tech stocks flying). Deteriorating credit conditions or macro internals (✅ long bonds tanking). Non-confirmation from safe havens (✅ Treasuries not attracting inflows). You now have divergence across all three market dimensions: VGLT at ATL Tells Us: VGLT tracks long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, so: Falling VGLT = rising long-term yields (i.e., bond prices down, yields up). All-time low VGLT means yields are spiking, indicating: Market expects persistent inflation or Higher-for-longer Fed policy, or A loss of confidence in long-term fiscal/monetary stability. Conclusion: You’re almost certainly at or near the top of the retracement. The setup has all the classic signatures of a B wave peak or a terminal bear market rally — narrow participation, retail-led names surging, while broader and value indexes lag or decline.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by MikaelZg
1
IOTA Could Be On The Way Back To December 2024 HighsIOTA with ticker IOTUSD made sharp and impulsive rally at the end of 2024, which we see it as a first leg (A)(1) of a bigger recovery in minimum three waves (A)(1)-(B)(2)-(C)(3). Since the beginning of 2025, Crypto market slowed down and IOTA made a deep retracement, but in three legs ABC with an ending diagonal/wedge pattern into wave C, which indicates for a correction in wave (B)(2). Well, it nicely bounced recently, making a clean five-wave impulse away from projected 78,6% Fibonacci support and back above channel resistance line, so it can be wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle within higher degree wave (C) or (3). That said, after current pullback in wave 2, be aware of more gains for wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle that can send the price back to December 2024 highs this year.
BITFINEX:IOTUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Bitcoin’s Path to ATH: Final Wave or Just a Pause? Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) pumped about +2% after the " The United States has dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from a brutal 145%, while China is slashing its own duties on US imports to just 10%, temporarily, for the next 90 days. " news, but then started to decline again. Do you think Bitcoin can see the new All-Time High(ATH)? Bitcoin is moving near the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) and Support line . In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin appears to have completed microwave 3 of the main wave 5 and is currently completing microwave 4 of the main wave 5 . Given the momentum of the decline a few hours ago , I expect Bitcoin to either touch the previous low or create a new low in the 1-hour timeframe . I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) once again and possibly touch the Support line and then attack towards the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) with the two scenarios I outlined on the chart . Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $106,943-$105,913 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,313-$104,787 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $102,198-$101,697 Note: If Bitcoin can move above $104,500 without correction, we can expect more pumping. Note: If Bitcoin falls below $101,500, we can expect more declines. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
21
USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🌀 USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🚀 Chart Analysis – May 13, 2025 I'm tracking a well-structured 5-wave impulse on USD/CHF using Elliott Wave Theory, supported by Fibonacci confluence, Awesome Oscillator (AO) momentum shifts, and convergence-divergence signals. 🔹 Elliott Wave Count We're currently in the corrective phase of Wave (4) after a strong Wave (3) extension. Here's the breakdown: ✅ Wave (1), (2), and (3) are clearly in place, with (3) showing healthy extension. 🔁 Wave (4) is pulling back and is now testing key support. 🔜 Anticipating a bullish Wave (5) continuation. 🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels & Buy Zone (Zone 1) Wave (4) is approaching a high-probability reversal zone: Zone 1 Buy Area: 0.8362 – 0.8341, marked by: 1.618–1.786 Fibonacci extension Confluence with previous breakout structure (resistance turned support) Classic Elliott correction depth for Wave (4) This zone provides a strong technical base for a potential bounce into Wave (5). 🔹 Awesome Oscillator (AO) + Convergence/Divergence AO confirms the wave count momentum: Strong green bars during Wave (3) Bearish red bars during Wave (4) correction Potential bullish convergence forming: Price is making lower lows AO is showing higher lows – this is bullish divergence, a classic pre-Wave (5) signal This momentum shift suggests buyers are returning, even as price dips into support — a strong signal for trend continuation. 🎯 Bias, Target & Invalidation Trade Bias: Bullish Buy Zone: 0.8362–0.8341 (Zone 1) Wave (5) Target: 0.8470 – 0.8500 (based on Wave (1)-(3) projection and previous high) Invalidation: Break and close below 0.8341 suggests deeper corrective structure or invalid wave count ✅ Summary This setup combines: Elliott Wave 5-impulse structure Fibonacci confluence at key buy zone Bullish divergence on AO supporting Wave (5) potential Strong risk-to-reward opportunity from Zone 1 📉 Waiting for confirmation via bullish price action or stronger AO green bars before committing. Let me know your view or alternate wave counts! #elliottwave #usdchf #wave5setup #fibonacci #awesomeoscillator #divergence #priceaction #forexanalysis #tradingview
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
2
INR has made a major top against USDFall of INR against the USD began in early 1970s, or perhaps late 1960s--we don't know for sure for lack of trading data. Since then, it has depreciated against the USD in crystal-clear 5 legs, or waves according to Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). To validate EWT, there occurred a gigantic gap of 9.23% in July 1991 where third wave is supposed to be--a hallmark of third waves. Furthermore, there's even a divergence between Price and Elliott Wave Oscillator (5/35 MACD) on the Monthly chart--typical of fifth waves. So, what's next then? Considering the time frame of the entire price move till date, I would say that a bear wave of Supercycle degree has just ended and we are looking at a 10-15 year advance in Indian Rupee against the US Dollar . In support of my forecast, INR has just posted a beautiful, unambiguous 5-wave advance in the shape of an expanding diagonal--hallmark of first waves--from 87.972 to 83.7625. If I'm right, price should retreat a bit toward the classic 61.8% level at 86.3396, and then fall hard--and I mean very hard, with a gap--toward the levels below 80, followed by another pause and a small retreat, and another fall, thereby completing a set of 5 distinct waves . Should price follow the path of my forecast to that point, we would have a definite confirmation on hand that a Supercycle bear wave has indeed ended. The final target of this Supercycle bull wave of INR vs. USD? It's too early and too far ahead to hazard a guess, but as per EWT principles, it should be somewhere close to 44. Yes. 1$ = ₹44. I hope I live to see that day. It's going to take a while, till 2040 perhaps, but we'll get there alright.
Short
by akg1249
2
Gold’s Short-Term Setup!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to fall today after the news " The United States has dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from a brutal 145%, while China is slashing its own duties on US imports to just 10%, temporarily, for the next 90 days. " Gold is moving near a Heavy Support zone($3,198-$3,136) . In terms of Elliott wave theory , it appears that Gold has completed five downwaves , and we should expect Gold to rise at least to the Resistance zone($3,280-$3,245) . It is possible that selling pressure on Gold will increase again with the opening of the US marke t. But this analysis is in the short term , and it is likely to hit Target before the US market opens. The Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern can also be a sign of Gold rising , at least in the short term . I expect Gold to rise to at least $3,241.890. Note: Stop Loss(SL): $3204.820 Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
5
Long-Term Buy On The AussieThe most straightforward interpretation is that the down move that started back in February 2021 (red rectangle) was a correction of the previous rally (green rectangle) and ended at 0.5914. If this is correct, then we are in the early stages of a large upward move on the Aussie in the long-term that should reach at least the previous highs of 2021. This view will be in jeopardy if we break back below the previously mentioned support and will be completely negated on a break of the 2020 lows at 0.5510.
Long
by tchamoun
2
HSI may gap down tomorrowPrice Action Recap (Last 4 Trading Days): Day 1 (8/5 Thu): High volatility Day 2 (9/5 Fri): Inside bar — consolidation Day 3 (12/5 Mon): Gapped up post-15:00 on tariff news Day 4 (13/5 Tue): Failed to follow through → another inside bar 🧯 Volatility is now at recent lows, and today's price action lacked direction. 📊 Despite still trading above MA10 and MA58, the short-term momentum seems to be fading. My View: We're potentially in a short-term reinforcement or minor retracement phase. Some wave-based projections see HSI in the 2nd wave of an irregular flat (335), aiming for 24,800+, but I'm sceptical due to weak local fundamentals and earnings outlook. 📌 Watch for tomorrow’s open — a gap down would confirm short-term weakness.
TVC:HSIShort
by Wong0000
4
S&P500 Short: Update on wave counts, Completion of WXYThis is my 3rd attempt to call the correction peak for S&P500 or Nasdaq (I use them interchangeably). From the previous short idea using Nasdaq, I mentioned that the reason for the invalidation of the previous idea is due to the last wave 5 of C of Y to extend into a 5-wave structure. Over here, the short position will be stopped out if a new high above wave Y is hit. I offered 2 conservative targets in this short idea and suggests that one can reduce position and shift stop loss when the first conservative target is reached. I also mention that if this WXY wave structure is the correct call, then the big picture is really that S&P500 will crash below 4800. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
Meta UpdateNot a whole lot to add to my Meta analysis. I have been calling for this move higher for about 3 weeks now. Today we finally found out what the catalyst was to spark the move higher. As I have said multiple times in the past, I don't really care so much about the why. The thing I care about is the where. Where will price go? Price came just shy of the 1.382 today and has enough waves in place to be considered complete. It also has created bearish divergence on MACD. These things don't mean a top is in by any means. They point to a top being in the works. I'm sure me saying this on the day META jumps almost $50 and 8% doesn't sit the best with some. To those people, I say, good luck. As always, you should trade your own convictions. Just remember, when price begins to head lower in the days / weeks to come, you heard it from me first.
NASDAQ:META
by TSuth