SPX afternoon analysisProposed top with ending diagonal (5) of ((c)) of y of B, with anticipated impulsive price action towards October 2022 lows.
For ((c)), (1) > (3) > (5), count valid below price of 6172.35.
Elliott Wave
Longest virtual money fraude name BTCevery grows cycle became shorter and you most think different abute this expensive worthless asset
#BITCOIN #BTC 4HAccording to the chart and Elliott wave counting, wave 4 of 5 is likely to have formed as a flat, and according to Fibonacci, we are probably at the end of this correction and we can expect to move towards a new high from this point.
Wave C: The Calm Before the Bullish StormBitcoin’s Epic Comeback: From the Abyss to New Heights (2022–2024)
After the brutal 2022 crash, Bitcoin was left battered, trading near $16K. Sentiment was at rock bottom—fear, uncertainty, and doubt ruled the market. But as 2023 unfolded, a silent accumulation phase began. Institutions and whales loaded up while retail investors remained hesitant.
Then came the first sparks: inflation cooled, macro conditions improved, and whispers of a Bitcoin ETF surfaced. The market woke up. Bitcoin broke $30K, then $40K, as momentum grew. The long-awaited ETF approval in early 2024 sent shockwaves—institutions poured in, and Bitcoin exploded past $50K, then $60K.
By mid-2024, the halving event tightened supply, fueling another leg up. Bitcoin shattered expectations, briefly touching $75K. Corrections came, but the uptrend held strong. As December 2024 approached, the market braced for the next chapter. With wave C on the horizon, the question wasn’t if Bitcoin would break new all-time highs, but when.
XAUUSD Bearish Trend Started for Correction ABCXAUUSD Bearish Trend Started for Correction ABC
Based on recent analyses, gold (XAUUSD) has been on an upward trajectory, reaching record highs above $2,900 in early February 2025. This surge is attributed to factors such as newly imposed tariffs and inflation concerns.
However, some Elliott Wave analyses suggest that gold may be entering a bearish correction phase. For instance, a head and shoulders pattern has been identified, indicating potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.
Additionally, forecasts indicate that the XAUUSD pair is correcting and may continue to decline, with an estimated pivot point around 2,788.71.
In summary, while gold has recently achieved record highs, certain technical indicators and patterns suggest a possible bearish correction in line with Elliott Wave Theory.
DXY Bearish to 85-90The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart:
A zigzag corrective pattern is identified.
Resistance levels at 113 and an inverse bearish level at 115 are highlighted.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA 9) and Simple Moving Average (SMA 50) are displayed.
Elliott Wave analysis appears to be used, indicating a possible downward correction.
A bearish scenario targeting around 90 in the long term is projected.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart:
A weakening dollar will boost growth in the export sector. I believe this will occur during President Trump's term.
RIVN looks ready after a flatRIVN bounced off the 61.8% retracement of W-(1), looked like a clean impulse besides the very deep retracement of W-2, but still valid. Wave B looks like 3 waves up and was rejected off the 127% making it look like an expanded flat. This then followed into an ending diagonal for C right into that 61.8% retracement of W-(1) and not quite hitting the 161.8% extension of W-A.
On a smaller timeframe, this last leg down could look like a 1-2 1-2 and needs a second 4-5 still. One more low could be in order.
Bitcoin Overall: 2 scenariosIf the weekly candle closes below 89,150; we probably visit 70-80K region, where at this point I am pre-disposed to consider this bull market to be over, despite its relatively short duration. Of course we will have to see what price has done at that point. Regardless, there should be a very significant bounce off those levels if this occurs.
My understanding of EW theory suggests price may have completed/has almost completed an 'expanded flat' corrective phase, and that we will have an extended 5th wave as in the 2017 cycle--although probably less explosive. IF price were to recover from these levels, we should have some very nice gains in the months ahead. The alternative scenario is the 5th wave has ended and the bear market has begun--in this case a sell the bounce from the 70'sk should be executed to liquidate any long-term positions.
As usual, give the above framework I believe the market will tell us what will happen.
TEM - Next RDDT?Skeptical to post it but couldn't resist. I got in RDDT in low 60's.
This has similar vibe and momentum. More more institutions are adding this as well.
Kadena Breakout SoonI currently hold 15,000 kadena coins and believe that a bullish breakout will occur in the next 30 days. My final target is $30.
Nio - It's his time to change the EV conception?Nio has developed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, which started one year ago. The key level remains at $4.50, signaling the start of the next wave in this Elliott Cycle (3rd wave). Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension could help us identify key levels for this potential movement. It's important to note that this is just a probability, and nothing is certain yet.
What about the company ?
NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that has gained significant attention in recent years, particularly for its innovative approach to battery technology and its premium EV offerings. Founded in 2014, NIO has positioned itself as a major player in the global EV market, particularly in China, and is looking to expand its presence internationally.
Over the past three years, NIO has shown impressive growth in terms of vehicle deliveries. In 2021, the company delivered over 91,000 vehicles, a substantial increase from the 43,000 vehicles delivered in 2020. In 2022, NIO continued its upward trajectory, delivering over 122,000 vehicles, marking a strong year despite global supply chain challenges.
One of NIO's most innovative features is its battery swapping technology, which sets it apart from many other EV manufacturers. Instead of relying solely on traditional charging methods, NIO offers a Battery as a Service (BaaS) model. This allows customers to swap their depleted battery for a fully charged one at one of NIO's battery swap stations. This process takes just a few minutes, significantly reducing the waiting time compared to traditional charging stations.
This battery swapping system is part of NIO's strategy to address some of the main challenges associated with electric vehicles, such as long charging times and the high cost of battery replacement. It also allows NIO to offer vehicles at a lower upfront cost, as the battery is leased separately. This innovative system has the potential to revolutionize the EV market by offering a more convenient and flexible solution for drivers.
NIO's focus on advanced technology, luxury EVs, and battery swapping has made it a strong competitor in the growing electric vehicle industry. With plans for further expansion into Europe and possibly the U.S., NIO’s innovative approach to the EV market could play a key role in the future of electric transportation.
ETHBTC - 2 ETH may soon buy 1 BTCBINANCE:ETHBTC is one of the most hated trades on the market right now. And based on price action from recent months and years - definitely for good reason. Ethereum is being viewed as a stale rust-bucket compared to the superior monetary properties of Bitcoin and the younger exuberance found in Solana. However don’t bet the house on that narrative continuing over the coming months. To me it seems that Ethereum may well have its time to shine once again...
Reasons to be super bullish
As crazy as it may be to say this, Ethereum can soon reach the rather insane price target of 0.5 BTC per ETH in the coming 18 months.
The pattern for the last 6 years has been one of accumulation, Wycoff Accumulation to be exact. Just look at similarities with an example pattern of GOLD posted from a few years ago, of it similarly being in deep accumulation and the price action that followed.
I’m willing to stick my neck out and say that the Wycoff (coiled) spring from the BINANCE:ETHBTC chart above has now completed, after over-shooting the downwards wedge (in white). Such an overshoot usually leads to the most volatile reversals, and is therefore one of my favorite trading patterns.
Not only that, BINANCE:ETHBTC also has a clean-looking cup & handle pattern forming, dating back to May 2018. Should that come to fruition, the minimum price target (taking the height of the cup via white arrows) would equate to 0.5 BTC. That just so happens to also perfectly coincide with the 1.414 fib level drawn.
Now, would Ethereum stop there? You’ve got to imagine so. However it may not…
BINANCE:ETHBTC 's onset to markets saw a 95x (pink arrow). Taking the same measured move, from the bottom in January 2020, would equate to a 30x move from current levels or a 55x from 2020's bottom. That would indicate a final target of 0.91 BTC, at the 1.618 fib, by around April 2026.
Another reason to suggest the selling is over, RSI is putting in a higher low, whilst price is making a lower low.
BINANCE:ETHBTC is mirroring the same setup as September 2019, with similar targets possible.
Reasons to be sceptical
We should be in a clearly bullish period, between Mar-24 to Apr-26 although we have yet to see bullish price action as of today. BINANCE:ETHBTC already enduring its bearish period from Dec-21 to Feb-24, this is unlikely to be another.
If we’re going to see the above come into fruition, we must soon see a huge uptick in volume in Ethereum in the coming days. Watch the green arrow underneath the chart to see if that happens over the coming 15-18 months.
BINANCE:ETHBTC looks to have already bounced off the 0.024 BTC per ETH. Or the 0.382 fib level (turquoise line). I expect very limited downside from here.
What might trigger a bullish change?
MSTR thanks to Michael Saylor has popularised his company as a quasi-leveraged ETF, turning the balance sheet of his company into a fast-tracked success.
Can you think of another company that is flush with billions of cash that is aligned with defi, NFT & decentralized markets and has one person on the board calling the shots for their investment committee? GameStop could well be the first public company to put Ethereum on their balance sheet and spark a huge step-change in the amount of institutional investment into ETH, over say BTC. They currently have $4.8bn in cash on their balance sheet and have yet to announce any M&A or changes to their corporate treasury.
Watch-out for catalysts, alt-season I sense is coming...
$SPY February 26, 2025AMEX:SPY February 26, 2025
15 Minutes.
100% extension move was completed yesterday. Now i expect a bounce before next fall.
For the rise 589.56 to 596.67 holding 593.5 - 594 is important for 597.5 to 599 levels.
We are still in a series of LL and LH pattern and below 200 averages too.
For the extension 589.56 to 599.96 to 593.02 I have a target 597-598 levels.
That should be a good level to short again.
Constellation of opportunitiesIt is clear that five impulse is in the past and now it is a correction. This idea is to ride wave C of the correction.
GOLD → Shaking. Going into flat. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is moving from a local bullish trend to a flat state. Bulls are still protecting strong risk zones. What to expect from the metal next?
Investors are returning to safe-haven assets due to uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and weak U.S. economic data.
Gold pulled back from a record $2,956 on Tuesday on profit taking and due to a drop in Chinese imports. However, a weak U.S. consumer confidence index helped the price recover.
Gold's rise is being held back by a strengthening dollar and bond yields, but trade war fears are supporting demand for the metal
Resistance levels: 2921, 2929, 2942
Support levels: 2905, 2888
Thus, we are forming a flat (sideways range). There is a possibility for a decline, for example, to retest the support 2905 - 2888 before further growth. Or growth and breakdown of resistance.
If the bulls can enter the 2921-2929 zone and keep the defense above this zone, the metal may return to growth.
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Pre-break consolidation against 1.053FX:EURUSD continues to form bullish hints for a possible continuation of growth. There is strong resistance ahead and the market is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation
The dollar continues its correction amid economic data, the country's politics and hints from Trump and Powell of a possible rate cut soon.
The euro is benefiting from the dollar's decline, but how long will it last, especially amid the tariff war between the U.S. and Europe?
Technically, at the moment, the chart indicates a bullish outlook. Within the local uptrend, an ascending triangle is forming, which generally indicates bullish interest in the market. The focus is on the pattern base - resistance at 1.053.
Support levels: 1.045, 1.040
Resistance levels: 1.053
If the dollar continues its downward course, the currency pair has all chances to grow.
A retest of the trend support (false breakout) before the resistance breakout is possible.
Breakout and consolidation of the price above 1.053 may provoke growth.
Regards R. Linda!
A is forming as leading diagonalNow 5th wave is almost finish in wave A and we cab see a Zigzag formation wave b in upside.
Head & Shoulders Pattern Forming – Gold Breakdown Soon?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is currently near the Resistance zone($2,948-$2,940) . Gold attacked the Resistance zone($2,948-$2,940) several times but failed to break it and even created a Bull Trap .
Regarding Classical Technical Analysis , Gold seems to be completing the Head and Shoulders Pattern . If Gold reaches the Neckline of this pattern , it seems to succeed in breaking it. One of the signs of the validity of the Head and Shoulders Pattern is to see a Regular Divergence(RD-) between the two shoulders, which we see here.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to have succeeded in completing corrective waves. The structure of correction waves is Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect Gold to reach the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders Pattern in the coming hours, and if it breaks , it will drop to at least $2,901 .
Note: If Gold can go over the Resistance zone($2,948-$2,940), we can expect more pumps.
Note: If Gold touches $2,934, we can hope for a drop.
Do you think that Gold succeeds in forming a new All-Time High(ATH) or does it need to be corrected?
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 30-minute time frame.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DJT - Parabolic Move IncomingNASDAQ:DJT is soon in my mind to begin the most insane of rallies. This chart for me is as clean as they come!
Recent Price Action
From the peak of October 2024 to recent days in February 2025 - the stock has seen a ~46% correction, in what is likely the completion of an Elliott Wave 2 correction (in X,Y,Z form).
This after a bullish initial Wave 1 formation saw it go beyond even the most bullish of bullish initial price targets, in just 2 weeks flat.
Price had prior to that been compressed inside a downwards-pointing wedge pattern (orange lines), since late March 2024. This is one of my most favourite bullish chart patterns. It often leads to explosive price action.
After breaking out of the wedge, it is now not-only putting the finishing touches to an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern (grey text)... but when it does so it will also complete a massive Cup & Handle formation (white arrows).
Future Price Targets
The initial target (T1) from this move would be $570 (20x) in a very short period. Perhaps even by end of June 2025. This would coincide with the 1.414 fibonacci level. Drawn from its initial introduction to public markets to its peak just weeks later.
Thereafter, an extended 5th wave target of $1,020 (43x) could be reached sometime around late November 2025 and January 2026. This coincides with the 1.618 fibonacci level (darker blue T2 line).
Price as of today has overshot the 0.382 fibonacci line and back-tested the previously-formed left shoulder. It is likely to find support here on the yellow line.
Next Up...
Volume has been pitiful of late. Watch it ramp-up again in the next few days, just like we saw in September 2024 when it completed its full retrace.
It is my expectation that we will see rest of the markets surprising bears, with a huge reversal before March, perhaps even combined with a significant dollar devaluation.
During this time when volume picks-up, a sharp reversal to the upside out of its latest wedge (dark red lines) is possible before the week ends on 28th February. If this occurs, this will likely confirm the end to Wave 2 of 5.
If there is any further downside to come, the absolute worst case scenario will likely be ~$18 - coinciding with the 0.238 fib. However this is not expected, just something to be wary of.
NASDAQ:DJT from here is ready to begin the most volatile of Elliott Waves, Wave 3. If volume persists, price will be drawn like a magnet to the horizontal sloping trend line in bold white.
Possible Elliott Waves
Wave 1 - $12 to $55
Wave 2 - $55 to $24
Wave 3 - $30 to $570
Wave 4 - $570 to $175
Wave 5 - $175 to $1,020
Ridiculous targets, right? So what could be the catalyst?
With the appointment of Kash Patel, we may now start seeing legal action taken against entities & individuals involved with naked short positioning. NASDAQ:DJT even in it's short history has been a prime target for this since 2022.
NASDAQ:DJT may be partially or heavily-involved with the Sovereign Wealth Fund being discussed for the United States.
NASDAQ:DJT may also complete the long-rumored acquisition of Bakkt Holdings ( NYSE:BKKT ). Perhaps even obtaining a minority stake in TikTok.
Short squeeze, M&A, fraudulent recovery, purchases of ETHUSD or just plain old organic price discovery - you pick your poison. But if you thought you'd seen NASDAQ:DJT reach its peak prior to the elections, be prepared to rethink your views.
NASDAQ:DJT has a LOT of room to the upside still from here. Make sure at the very least, you keep this one on your watch-list.
----
Note : This post was originally published on 2nd November 2024 in the lead-up to the election. It was popular but was hidden due to an error on my part including a private indicator. It has now been updated to account for recent price action & timing.
Bitcoin/Gold running flat correction before final fifth waveLet's consider Bitcoin/Gold as the best index of commodity pricing for the purposes of elliott wave analysis. Bare in mind we have barely broken ATHs on this chart. It looks like we are in the equivalent period of March 2017, a large flat correction before the true extended fifth of extended fifth parabolic advance commences.
Gold H4: Ending Diagonal Signals ReversalUpdate: Gold formed an ending diagonal in H4, suggesting a wave cycle completion. A pullback for wave (iv) is expected before a new push higher. Watching for key support to hold before wave (v) continuation.
Confirmation of Wave 5 being complete, but which wave 5? It's waves within waves within waves, well maybe...
So now I'm seeing it either as the 1st of a 5th wave extension, or the 5th of the entire move from $15.4k.
These levels here should show what's up. Ideally it finds support around the halfway back, but it could go further, maybe the 618. How it gets there as well is to be considered so let's see. But below those levels and it will probably start getting outside the geometric boundaries I'd consider indicative of this move extending, meaning a deeper sell off to a possible 41K bitcoin.
That kind of sounds like wishful thinking, but some players will want in at a discount, so it's conceivable. The weekly moving averages are always worth considering as well. In any such move down so far, bulls would really want to see it rebounding and closing well above the 200 period moving average that it would likely breach in the sell off.
One longer term tool I keep an eye on is the base channel on the entire move from 15k - so channel on beginning of move to the end of 2, parallel with top of 1. Bitcoin hasn't traded below that base channel since quickly dipping its toe through in 2015, before which it had been above it since March 2013 (log scale) and had tried twice to break above it. So that will be my main overall indicator of whether I'm bull or bear.
Still, whatever happens, it's always a shakeout.
BITCOIN → Testing $88K - $90K. False or true breakdown?BINANCE:BTCUSD enters the risk zone and forms a false breakdown of the key support zone. All eyes are on the bulls, whether they can keep their defense on the market or not....
On D1 - W1 price in global consolidation after strong growth. The focus is on 90-91K, a zone that is a strong support for the global trend. A false breakout is forming at the moment.
On the Local timeframe H1 - H4 the price is testing the local channel support, as well as the risk zone 89400.
If the bulls can keep the defense above 89400 - 90K, bitcoin may strengthen. The primary target in this case could be 94K
Support levels: 91280, 89400
Resistance levels: 94800, 99200
Statistically, the strongest dvjeniyas are formed after a false breakdown. But there is another question here, what kind of breakout will be - true or false.
In our case, we need to wait for confirmation, namely, for the price to consolidate above the key zones and levels. Emphasis on 89400, 90000, 91300
Regards R. Linda!
