Navigating XRP Regulatory Winds and Technical TidesThe crypto sphere remains fixated on XRP, a digital asset perpetually caught between regulatory scrutiny and promising technological advancements. Recent developments, including the delayed decision on a potential XRP ETF, the nearing conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, and the launch of CFTC-regulated XRP futures, have injected fresh volatility and speculation into XRP's price trajectory.
ETF Delay and SEC Lawsuit: A Tale of Two Catalysts
The anticipation surrounding a potential XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been palpable. However, the recent delay in the SEC's decision has tempered immediate expectations. While a positive verdict would undoubtedly trigger a massive price surge, the postponement underscores the regulatory hurdles still facing the cryptocurrency market.
Conversely, the long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC is seemingly approaching its denouement. Reports suggest the SEC is considering dropping the case against Ripple, a development that has already spurred significant price appreciation. The dismissal of the lawsuit, even if partial, would provide much-needed regulatory clarity, significantly boosting investor confidence. This potential resolution drove XRP up 12+% to $2.50, indicating the market's sensitivity to legal outcomes.
Technical Analysis: Charting a Course to New Highs
From a technical standpoint, XRP's price action displays a complex interplay of support and resistance levels. A critical resistance zone lies between $2.60 and $2.89. Overcoming this barrier is crucial for XRP to unlock its full potential and embark on a sustained upward trend. However, XRP has shown resilience, maintaining support above the $2.0 mark, which suggests underlying strength.
Analyzing the Elliott Wave theory, some analysts suggest XRP is currently in a corrective Wave 4. Within this framework, the $2.66 level emerges as a pivotal point. Breaking above this level would signal the completion of Wave 4 and the initiation of Wave 5, potentially leading to new all-time highs. This wave count, while speculative, provides a valuable framework for understanding potential price movements.
Conversely, trading below the 100-day moving average (MA) presents a significant setback for XRP buyers. This would signal a potential shift in momentum and could lead to further downward pressure. Investors should closely monitor this MA as a key indicator of short-term price direction.
Bitnomial's XRP Futures: Bridging Traditional and Crypto Markets
The launch of Bitnomial's CFTC-regulated XRP futures marks a significant milestone for the asset. This development provides institutional investors with a regulated avenue to gain exposure to XRP, potentially increasing liquidity and market depth. This regulated futures market may also provide more price stability, while also providing a tool for shorting XRP.
How High Can XRP Price Go After a Ripple Victory?
The question on everyone's mind is: how high can XRP soar if Ripple secures a decisive victory against the SEC? Predicting exact price targets is inherently challenging, but several factors suggest a bullish outlook.
Firstly, regulatory clarity would remove a major overhang that has suppressed XRP's price for years. This newfound certainty would attract a wave of institutional and retail investors who have previously been hesitant to invest due to legal uncertainties.
Secondly, Ripple's continued expansion and adoption of its technology, particularly in the cross-border payments sector, positions XRP for long-term growth. The increasing demand for efficient and cost-effective payment solutions could further fuel XRP's price appreciation.
Thirdly, the psychological impact of a legal victory should not be underestimated. It would validate XRP's legitimacy as a digital asset and potentially trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) rally.
Based on these factors, some analysts speculate that XRP could potentially retest and surpass its previous all-time high, potentially reaching double-digit valuations. However, the timing and magnitude of such a surge remain subject to market dynamics and regulatory developments.
Why Is XRP Surging? The Convergence of Catalysts
The recent surge in XRP's price can be attributed to a convergence of positive catalysts. The nearing conclusion of the SEC lawsuit, coupled with the launch of CFTC-regulated XRP futures, has created a perfect storm of bullish sentiment.
Furthermore, general market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies has been improving, with increasing institutional adoption and growing awareness of the technology's potential.
Navigating the Volatility: A Word of Caution
While the outlook for XRP appears promising, investors should remain cognizant of the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Regulatory developments, market sentiment, and technical factors can all significantly impact price movements.
Therefore, investors should conduct thorough research, manage their risk prudently, and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term price fluctuations.
In conclusion, XRP is navigating a complex landscape of regulatory headwinds and technological tailwinds. The nearing conclusion of the SEC lawsuit, coupled with the launch of regulated futures, presents a compelling case for a bullish outlook. However, investors should remain vigilant and exercise caution as they navigate the volatile crypto market. The interplay of legal outcomes, technical analysis, and market sentiment will ultimately determine XRP's future trajectory.
Elliott Wave
MSFT morning analysisI don't normally apply Elliott Wave Theory to individual stocks, but MSFT is about as clean as it gets.
Wave 2 is a zigzag of long duration, wave 4 is a triple-three of relatively short duration.
RSI with bearish divergence.
If this proves to be correct, the ultimate buy/long would be back towards the March 2020/COVID low (white rectangle).
$SPY March 20, 2025AMEX:SPY March 20, 2025
15 Minutes.
For the extension 559.07 to 566.3 to 562.05 100% move is done yesterday making a high 570.95.
For the last rise 562.05 to 570.95 holding 565 is important else i expect a side moving average consolidation around 562 563 levels so that 50, 100 and 200 gets sorted out in order.
Apple (AAPL): -50%. According to the planElliott Wave Analysis of Apple stock
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● NASDAQ:AAPL |🔎TF: 1W
Fig. 1
The long-term wave markup has not been adjusted for the past three years. Except that the orthodox tops and bottoms and targets for third waves are slightly refined.
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● NASDAQ:AAPL |🔎TF: 1W
Fig. 2
Earlier, at the end of 2023 , we have already suggested wave ((iv)) in 3 in the form of a running flat. As we can see, the attempt was unsuccessful, the formation of a sideways correction continues to this day. It can be a running flat or an expanded flat, the latter of which assumes a break of the 124.17 low.
GOLD → Fading out before the news. Possible long-squeezeFX:XAUUSD continues its bullish trend, but locally, the movement is in a very narrow channel (wedge). To form a potential for further movement, the price may form a long-squeeze before or at the time of news...
Fundamentally, gold remains a bullish asset due to the Fed's rate cut forecasts and economic risks associated with Trump's tariff policy. Gold hit a new high on Wednesday after the Fed reiterated plans to cut rates twice this year, raised its inflation forecast and worsened growth and employment estimates.The price is further supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Israel announcing the resumption of ground operations in Gaza.
Gold is forming a bull market. Before further growth (before the news) the price may enter the liquidity zone (fvg, 3028, 3024), after which it will continue to grow. Dollar enters local correction before the news, which creates pressure on gold
Resistance levels: 3046, 3051, 3056
Support levels: 3038, 3030, 3024
Price is forming a retest of the wedge support, which increases the chances of a breakdown. If the support fails to hold, the price may go down to the above support before rising further.
But! If gold bounces from 3038 and consolidates above 3044, the growth will continue without a deep pullback
Regards R. Linda!
Gold Short: Completion of 5 waves of Wave 5 (or sub-wave 3)As mentioned in this video, I have a primary count that states that Gold has completed the entire wave 3 (see link video for cycle wave counts), and my alternate count is that the 5th wave is not completed BUT sub-wave3 is completed and we are going into wave 4. Both primary and alternate points to a short opportunity.
The stop loss will be recent high (around 3058).
IHSG (JCI ) MAPPING 20 MARCH 2025IHSG (JCI ) analysis on March 20, 2025 theoretically shows that it has completed the triple zigzag wave correction (WXYZ) with 11 swings of the Elliott wave correction series and touched the theoretical level of 0.618 (area 6,018.22) Fibonacci extension measurements. In addition, it has also touched its Fresh Demand Weekly area and reacted upwards. So the hope for the future is that IHSG (JCI ) will continue it's big bullish trend journey again after being corrected.
May we be blessed.
EASY TRIP PLANNERS LTD Chart (Elliott Wave Perspective)Overall Trend:
The stock has been in a prolonged downtrend since reaching its peak.
The price structure suggests it is in a corrective phase based on Elliott Wave Theory.
Wave Count Analysis:
The chart shows a five-wave impulse, followed by a ZIG ZAG 5-3-5 corrective structure.
The C wave is currently unfolding and appears to be in its final stages.
Projected Price Movement:
The price is expected to form a wave (iv) retracement before continuing lower to complete the final (v) wave of C.
The projected target for wave (v) of C is in the ₹9 - ₹7.50 range.
There is a potential invalidation level at ₹20.46, meaning if price breaks above this, the bearish count might be reconsidered.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: ₹9 - ₹7.50 (Potential bottom for wave C)
Invalidation Level: ₹20.46 (Break above may suggest a reversal)
Bearish & Bullish Possibilities:
Bearish Case : If the stock follows the Elliott Wave count, it could complete its correction towards the ₹9 zone before any significant recovery.
Bullish Case: If the price moves above the ₹20.46 invalidation level, a potential trend reversal could be in play.
🚨 Disclaimer: The content shared is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst or advisor. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any financial decisions. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I may be completely wrong in my analysis. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Bitcoin - This indicator is always right! Crash to 40k in 2026.What we can see on the chart is Bitcoin cycles. We can statistically predict Bitcoin moves with this simple chart, because it's always right and never wrong. What can we say with certainty?
Statistically:
Bitcoin's bull markets last for 742 to 1065 days
Bitcoin's bear markets last for 364 to 413 days
Correction is every time weaker, but still huge
The recent uptrend on Bitcoin started in December 2022 and ended in January 2025 (791 days). We know that statistically bull markets last for 742 to 1065 days, so this indicator tells us that the bull market ended! This indicator was never wrong, so do your own research. It's always like this. Moon boys calling for 300k, 500k, or 1M in 2025 do not follow my TradingView profile because otherwise they would know this strong fundamental fact. The market cap of Bitcoin is already too big, so forget about 500K or 1M in the short term because the market cap would be higher than gold. Gold is the number 1 asset in the world.
Statistically, Bitcoin crashes every 4 years by 86% to 77%. The market cap is getting bigger as institutions step in, so this time I expect a weaker crash (around 65%). Still, it's a huge crash, and many investors will sell at a loss as usual. Knowledge of the Bitcoin cycles will save you a lot of money.
Bitcoin halving is coded to occur once every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, and will continue in this fashion until the final supply of 21 million BTC is reached. It is assumed that the last BTC will be mined in 2140. After that, transaction fees are supposed to be the only source of block rewards for miners.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
MAPPING JCI 20 MARCH 2025JCI analysis on March 20, 2025 theoretically shows that it has completed the triple zigzag wave correction (WXYZ) with 11 swings of the Elliott wave correction series and touched the theoretical level of 0.618 Fibonacci extension measurements. In addition, it has also touched its Fresh Demand Weekly area and reacted upwards. So the hope for the future is that JCI will continue it's big bullish trend journey again after being corrected.
May we be blessed.
HK2359 Bullish Wave 3In the second half of 2024, the stock accumulated energy and cooperated with the policy to make a beautiful rise, and then fell back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line and fluctuated repeatedly. I believe the next wave of rise is coming!
I will buy intraday, the yellow line is the support level, about 51.1 (this is a relatively safe entry price), and the first target profit stop level is 72.45 (Fibonacci retracement line 1.000)
I am very optimistic about this stock. When there is a decline, I will give priority to replenishing positions at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line instead of leaving the market quickly
Gold Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025
- Gold continues daily uptrend
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3100.00
Gold rises sharply after breaking the resistance zone between the resistance 2956.00 (top of the previous impulse wave 3) and the round resistance level 3000.00.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 5 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from November.
Given the clear uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3100.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 5).
ADI rally slowing already?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline.
My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow.
This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted.
Specifically for ADI, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. Wave 4 does not need to gain too much more to meet completion criteria, but the sideways movement of the past few days could place the top below 218. During Minor wave 5, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 202.59. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 186-195. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
WFC is moving ahead of the market for better or worse?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline.
My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow.
This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted.
Specifically for WFC, Minor wave 3 was the shortest impulsive wave, likely indicating wave 5 will be 49 bars (30 minute scale) or less. This will likely put a restriction on the length of the decline. Additionally wave 4 is moving faster for this ticker than it has been on the others I have studied. Minor wave 5 should drop below wave 3's bottom of 65.515. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower, but likely not too much more. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
While WFC has been trading with most of the other signals I am watching, the current rally could be a sign of Intermediate wave 1 possibly having ended at the current Minor 3 bottom. This would mean we are in Intermediate wave 2 now. In this case, the top of Intermediate wave 2 is quickly approaching (no higher than 78.98. I will evaluate this solution if the rally continues next week.
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Fed rate meeting...FX:XAUUSD goes into consolidation 3038 - 3024 before the news - Fed rate meeting. The situation is generally predictable, but gold is reacting to rising geopolitical risks.
Gold is stabilizing before the Fed decision , markets are waiting for the data. The regulator is expected to keep rates, but Powell's forecasts will determine further dynamics.
“Hawkish” tone of the Fed may lead to the strengthening of the dollar and gold correction.
“Dovish” signals about economic risks will support the growth of metal prices.
Geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariffs continue to have an impact.The market is preparing for high volatility on the background of the Fed's decision and events in the world
Resistance levels: 2038, 2045
Support levels: 3024, 3015, 3004.9
Several scenarios can be considered for trading:
Breakdown of resistance 3038 - 3045, consolidation of the price above the level with subsequent growth to 3050 - 3060.
Or wait for the reaction to the news and with a possible breakdown of support to look for strong levels to trade a false breakdown, for example 3024, 3015, 3005.
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY → Resistance retest (wedge) before the Fed meetingFX:USDJPY is forming a correction to trend resistance as part of the dollar index consolidation. An interesting situation is forming which could be a continuation of the downtrend.
Fundamentally, today is an important day. The FED interest rate meeting is ahead. Traders are waiting, the dollar is consolidating at this time. Most likely the rate will remain unchanged, but in this key everyone is interested in Powell's comments on monetary policy and their future actions.
USDJPY at this time is forming a correction to the bearish trend resistance, before the news the currency pair may test the resistance conglomerate: a wedge, 0.79 fibo, or an orderblock located outside the channel
Resistance levels: 150.16, 150.95
Support levels: 148.92
False breakout of the resistance zone can provoke a fall, as well as breakdown of the support of the “wedge” with the subsequent consolidation of the price in the selling zone. The price may test the zone of interest at 147.6, 146.54.
Regards R. Linda!