Is HCLTECH done?
HCLTECH has had a phenomenal run from ₹12.9 in September 2001 to ₹2,012.2 earlier this month, a growth of ~15,500% in 279 months, averaging 40% annually.
But is it all about to end? 5/35 MACD, which I love to use to validate my EW count is showing a massive divergence on the weekly charts combined with a big high-volume engulfing bar concurrently taking shape. I can also count clear 5 waves on the monthly charts.
Based on my calculations, I can see two targets on the downside: 1418 and 970 .
Do share your opinions below.
Best!
Elliott Wave
SOL (Weekly timeframe): Trend structure Price is approaching a key macro support zone. However, as long as it remains below the $148 level, I cannot rule out the possibility of one more corrective leg toward the $76–$55 range before a medium-term bottom is established and a potential resumption of the broader uptrend begins.
A breakout and sustained close above the $148 level would serve as the first technical signal that either:
- a corrective wave B (preceding a deeper correction toward the macro support zone) is unfolding, or
- a new long-term bullish trend aiming for all-time highs is beginning.
Monthly outlook:
My previous idea from November 2024 has fully realized its structure:
Thanks for reading and wishing you successful trading and investing decision!
ABC Correction?I can count a 5 wave impulse (subjective) and could see a potential ABC correction down to the $16 - $23 level. As someone who makes plenty of purchases from small retailers on the SHOP infrastructure, I'm ultimately long on this stock. I hope this stock doesn't see a year or more of sliding price action. That level could easily be hit, then recover much sooner than this chart predicts. TLDR; I'm charting a potential reversal level, not the time frame.
Zloty vs Euro 5.20 - timespan boundariesTwo years ago, I found the probability with the current zloty price of 4.15 PLN; and forecasted new extremum terminal point >6.5 zloty per single euro. The first part of the prediction has worked out, 4.15 was reached.
How i received the 6.50 PLN value? I got the value by applying the Elliott Wave Principle: this is the height of the first wave, primary degree. At the moment the chart is at the second wave end. I think so because there is an exit outside the channel, it is an indicator. According to the principle - the third wave cannot be the shortest in the impulse, so the target is above 6.5+.
Today, the time boundaries became obvious to me.
I think 5.20 PLN target per single EUR may be reached by the end of Trump presidency. Thus, by the end of 2028. This target will coincide with the upper trend channel and may match with the end of the first sub-wave of the minor degree of the primary third wave.
In 2024 December i also made forecast for DXY dollar index: ~112% and ~85%. The first part of that prediction has already worked out at 110.217%. The second part of the probability may be more swift, thus we may see 94-85% DXY values during 2025. Which could lead to 5.20 at PLN already in 2025. We will know this soon...
Good luck with your investing strategy, have fat profits and remember - there are no guaranties on the markets, only probabilities.
What Happens Elliott Wave Sequence Completes?Just a quick chart on Nasdaq to show what happens when the Elliott Wave count is completed?
Usually you'd see a major correction. The choice of word depends on the chart time frame. On a monthly chart its still a correction, obviously that is not true for a daily chart where it looks like a SPIKE down.
This chart shows, Wave 5 is terminating within Target zone.
Time Has Came For Bitcoin NOW!!!As Updated previously on Macro, We have reached at crucial zone. According to Elliott wave count on big picture, BTC formed ending diagonal and now approaching at it's reversal points. From this area of 75-69k region, there's high probability of trend reversal and we will soon see shorters getting rekt
Elliott Wave Outlook (Wave C in Progress?)Key Technical Zones:
Demand Zone: 0.9750 – 1.0350 (Support from Wave B low)
Supply Zone: 1.1600 – 1.2000 (Potential Wave C target)
Current Price: 1.0959
Support Levels: 1.0730, 1.0350
Resistance Levels: 1.1250, 1.1600
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact for Wave C as long as the pair holds above 1.0730. Any deeper pullback into the demand zone could still be part of a healthy correction, offering long opportunities on confirmation. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data, especially from the U.S. (FOMC, CPI) and EU (ECB stance), as they may heavily influence EUR/USD sentiment in the coming weeks.
Conclusion:
Watch for bullish continuation setups toward the supply zone, but remain cautious of a mid-term rejection pattern, which could trigger a deeper correction. Trade safely, and always use proper risk management.
Current Scenario:
Price is now trading near 1.0950, suggesting a potential Wave C rally in progress.
If Wave C unfolds as anticipated, EUR/USD could approach the supply zone marked between 1.1600–1.2000, which aligns with previous structural resistance and Fibonacci retracement levels.
However, a false breakout or early rejection from current levels could lead to a sharp retracement, possibly retesting the demand zone before any major upside continuation.
NIFTY short term trend is bullish target- 23900
In 15 minute price bars from EWP in recent uptrend it has completed waves (1),(2),(3) and now wave (4) has completed,
wave (4) is complex W X Y X Z pattern witch is arrived in its wave Z
now price need to go higher to form wave (5) its minimum price target is 23900
XEC Downtrend Update
After the ABC correction shown in my previous analysis, we have a motive wave to the downside.
I´m considering wave 1 to be an extended wave. Therefore, by EW parameters, we would have wave 3 shorter than 1, and wave 5 shorter than 3.
Blue resistance is an probable target for wave 4.
SGDMYR Short: Completed 3-waves correction upThere are a handful of macroeconomic reasons for Singapore dollar to weaken against the Malaysian Ringgit, but I'll point out only the First EW counts here. As you can see, I've drawn the wave down in 5 waves and the wave up in 3 waves. That is the wave A and wave B respectively. And so I will be expecting a 5-wave wave C down. A 1-to-1 measurement will bring this currency pair below 3.0.
SHORT TERM SELL - 3000As illustrated in a lower timeframe, I'm trying to visualize what the potential sell opportunity could look like.
It's possible to see a correction of Friday's drop at least to the 50% retracement level.
Anywhere between the 50% and the 61.8% retracements is an initial sell area.
Extended sell area would be between the 70.5% and the 79% retracement.
Targets are shown based on the extension levels.
100% = Target 1
127% = Target 2
161.8% = Target 3
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IMPORTANT :
There's a 1H and 4H imbalance just before FEB's High in which price might show rejection. That's a good sign for a potential rebound and reversal to the upside to continue the uptrend.
I've shown in a previous analysis that potential buy opportunity with mid-term targets toward $3.2k - $3.5k ; go check it out!.
--
Join my trading team.
Ig: @ persaxu
GOOD LUCK!
Crude OIL CRASH - OPEC & Trump - Recession Catalyst#Recession is here, Markets are bleeding.
Crude #Oil is the kicker.
I shorted TVC:USOIL on Friday.
Hunting on this trade for a while now.
Very #Bearish outlook on #WTI.
MARKETSCOM:OIL Weekly
#FundamentalAnalysis
- #OPEC+ Output Hike (411K bpd)
- #Trump #Tariffs & #TradeWar
I'm looking at a #CrudeOIL #MarketCrash, similar to the #Covid era, when NYMEX:CL1! went in minus on #Nymex #Futures.
TVC:USOIL & my BIG SHORT
#Trading EASYMARKETS:OILUSD via CFDs with #Leverage.
Executed my #Sell Position on #WTI at $64.
* DYOR before, it's not a financial advice, I just share.
#TechnicalAnalysis
- #ElliottWave Impulse Cycle a (white)
- #Correction in Primary ABC (red)
- #LeadingDiagonal in Primary A (red)
- #Descending Triangle in Primary B (red)
Why will BLACKBULL:WTI Crash?
#Bearish Primary C (red) has started.
#Break-out below the Triangle Flat Line.
Important Note:
The #Bearish #Impulse will continue lower.
After the short-lived pull-back, Sellers will dominate.
$63-64 Range is the Entry.
MARKETSCOM:OIL Daily
TVC:USOIL #Short #TradeSignal
- Entry @ $63-64 Range
- SL @ $73
- TP1 @ $40
- TP2 @ $30
- TP3 @ $20
Stay in the green and many pips ahead!
Richard (Wave Jedi)
Has Bitcoin completed its multi-year leading diagonal?When we look at the all-time history index, could it be that we've reached the end of a 15-year journey with this last peak?
If the last peak represents our 5th wave impulse and is part of a larger leading diagonal, we can consider the entire diagonal—from Bitcoin's starting point at zero to the final peak—as the first impulse. After that, a correction labeled as wave 2 should follow. This correction would likely unfold in an ABC structure over the years and, if it retraces to a possible 0.236 Fibonacci level, we could accept the bottom price to be around $26,000.
I can almost hear you asking, "Could it really drop that much?" In a global environment of uncertainty, with stocks taking such a hit, why not? Perhaps this is just the beginning—who knows?
On the weekly chart, our potential swing high price is the last peak at $109,500. The confirmed swing low is at $49,500. If the price closes below $49,500 on a weekly basis, it would indicate a change of character, which would be one of the strongest signals that we could see lower prices. After that, I'm not sure whether we will stop at the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $42,000 or the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $26,000. This expectation is for the long term. The price won't drop to these levels immediately, of course. Currently, we are in the A part of this ABC correction. The B wave upwards may come when the price reaches $49,500, and then we will discuss the $42,000 and $26,000 levels during the C correction. As time goes on, it will be easier to pinpoint the exact levels using micro Elliott wave counts.
NIFTY50.....Be prepaired for high volatility!Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has declined to my target area @ 23038, and it's test of this boundary failed! It declined further to 22857 points.
I have visualized the opportunity for a triple correction, counted w-x-y-x2-z!
Probably the index is moving back to a wave 4 of lower degree, which is around 21821.45 area. Another target range could be @21137 for the coming one or two weeks.
A break of the upper boundary of the channel opens the door to lower targets in the coming week.
Note! A triple never ever doesn't morph within a trend channel! Keep that in mind!
Anyway! The level of 23869.60 is the one who needs to be extended in the coming one or two weeks. If not, the index has the possibility to crash to new lows. From my view, I need to see a final "sell-off" in the coming one or two weeks, to clear the market and banish those shaky hands!
Overall to speak, I guess we will see high volatility in the index and fast moving price! A gap down in the time ahead, one massive gap-down, has the chance to clear the market!
So, don't be the last who grape a chair, while music stop's playing!
Handle with care and be patient this day's! Otherwise, you will everything you have!
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
MY Long-term Elliott Wave count expectation for OTHERS dominanceThere is a diagonal structure in the larger picture, forming in a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern.
I believe the C wave of the larger Wave 4 correction is currently unfolding.
The macro C correction is also forming an ending diagonal with a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
We are currently in the 5th wave of the final 5-wave impulse. Within this 5th wave, there is another 5-wave sub-impulse unfolding. I believe we are now inside the 5th wave of that sub-impulse as well. This wave is expected to complete a final 5-wave structure and drive the price down toward my target level of around 6% dominance. I anticipate this structure to be completed approximately by May 20. After that, the macro 5th wave should begin, which is likely to signal a strong upward movement.
Dow Jones Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)📊 Dow Jones Intermediate Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)
🌀 Elliott Wave Interpretation
The chart reflects a clear Elliott Wave count from the post-COVID low:
Wave I and Wave II are well-established.
Wave III is now completed, accompanied by a peak in AO — which aligns with classical Elliott theory where AO typically peaks during the 3rd wave, showing strong momentum.
Wave IV is currently unfolding.
📉 Wave IV Characteristics (Ongoing Phase)
Wave IV is expected to be complex — commonly forming:
Triangles (contracting or expanding),
Flats,
Double/triple threes.
It is likely to consume time and generate sideways or choppy price action.
Volumes, interestingly, are peaking again, which often occurs toward the end of Wave IV due to emotional volatility and retail panic activity.
🔮 Two Probable Scenarios for Wave IV Completion:
Scenario 1 (Shallow Correction):
Target Zone: ~37,400
This zone coincides with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave III.
Would reflect a simple flat or sharp zigzag structure.
Scenario 2 (Deeper Correction):
Target Zone: ~34,100
Corresponds to the lower support band with possible spike to 32,988 (FINAL FIB Support).
May occur if external macroeconomic or geopolitical triggers cause extended selling.
📈 Post Wave IV – Projection for Wave V
Once Wave IV completes:
Wave V is expected to resume the larger bullish cycle.
Price target: New all-time highs, possibly towards the upper blue resistance trendline (~46,000+).
Watch for bullish confirmation with AO flipping and price breaking above Wave IV consolidation highs. before completing 4th wave it always create complex patterns. we need to watch the patterns and it is getting completing before move to 5th wave.
🔍 AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights
AO peak confirms Wave III completion.
Negative divergence between AO and price also supports Wave V capping out, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum.
AO is now retracing — likely bottoming during the end of Wave IV.
🔊 Volume Behavior
Volume peaked at the end of Wave III — a common occurrence.
Now rising again near Wave IV completion – this suggests:
Panic selling,
Possible final shakeout before market stabilizes for Wave V.
Monitor for volume drop-off during Wave V's beginning – a classic signature of reduced fear and return of trend stability.
🔒 Critical Support & Resistance Levels
Level Description
37,400 Scenario 1 target / shallow correction
34,100 Scenario 2 deeper correction target
32,988 Final strong support (Fib extension)
46,000+ Potential Wave V high / upper trendline
📌 Conclusion
The intermediate trend is corrective, within a larger bullish framework.
Wave IV is currently playing out and might end soon.
Watch key support zones (37,400 and 34,100) for potential reversal setups.
Once confirmed, Wave V rally could offer significant upside opportunities.
Remain cautious during this volatile consolidation and validate reversal signs before positioning.
📜 Disclaimer
⚠️ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is based on technical chart interpretation (Elliott Wave Theory, volume, AO) and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the risk of losing your capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.