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Elliott Wave

Elliott Wave Analysis for Gold (XAU/USD)Impulse Wave (1-5)- , the chart shows a completed five-wave impulse structure (marked in pink). Wave 1 starts an upward rally. Wave 2 is a corrective pullback. Wave 3 is the strongest upward leg. Wave 4 consolidates before the final rally. Wave 5 completes the impulse move. Corrective Wave (ABC) A three-wave correction (ABC) has started after the impulse wave. Wave A initiated the first leg of the drop. Wave B provided a short-term retracement. Wave C is expected to extend downward, completing the correction. Negative Divergence Confirmation The Awesome oscillator shows negative divergence, indicating momentum loss before the correction. This confirms that the strong upward trend had weakened. Key Support & Resistance Levels 2800 Level: Crucial support zone—if broken, further downside is likely. 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (~2800): Initial support level. 61.8% Fibonacci (~2725): A deeper correction could test this level. Further downside target: 2600-2500, if selling accelerates. Trading Plan & Considerations Bullish Case: If Gold holds above 2800 and breaks recent highs, the uptrend may continue. Bearish Case: If Gold breaks below 2800, expect further decline towards 2725-2600. Volume Analysis: Increasing red volume suggests strong selling pressure. Disclaimer ⚠️ This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trade execution strategies. Trading involves significant risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by shiva560060
EUR/USD Approaching Strong Resistance – Reversal Ahead?Eye-Catching Heading: 🚨 🚨 Description: EUR/USD has surged into a critical resistance zone, where strong selling pressure could emerge. The marked green zone represents a key supply area, and a rejection from this level might trigger a downside move. Key insights: ✅ Resistance Zone: 1.0980 - 1.1020 (Highlighted in Green) ✅ Potential Reaction: A bearish reversal from this area could push the pair lower. ✅ Watch for Confirmation: A rejection candle or bearish momentum shift could validate a short trade setup. Will the sellers take control here,
by Greenfireforex
1
GBP/USD Breakout Confirmation – Next Move to 1.3068?Eye-Catching Heading: Description: GBP/USD has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish continuation. The breakout aligns with strong momentum, and we are now observing a retracement before the next leg higher. Key levels to watch: Support Zone: 1.2880 - 1.2854 (marked in red) Target Zone: 1.3068 (highlighted in green) The price is currently in a pullback phase, which could offer a great buying opportunity before the next bullish wave towards the 1.3068 level. Confirmation of a higher low in the gray zone could validate further upside movement. What are your thoughts on this setup
by Greenfireforex
Hedera Goes From April Highs, To ATH, To Elliot Wave Theory? Lets break down what COINBASE:HBARUSD may be setting up for a long-term scenario! We saw a impressive Bullish Rally from beginning of November 2024 that facilitated a Breakout of the April 2024 High @ .1842 to then create its All Time High @ .4010. With this Price Action going from a Significant Low to create a new Higher High, we can apply the Elliot Wave Theory which is first supported by seeing some sort of Fibonacci Retracement from the Low to New High and we see that February of 2025 delivered a Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio Zone twice to now be showing support from Bulls pushing price higher! Technically, with Wave 1 having been corrected successfully by Wave 2, both being completed, we now can expect price to give us another extension starting Wave 3, giving us a Break of the ATH created by Wave 1, to then confirm our directional bias and validate the Elliot Wave Theory. Based on the Fibonacci Extension, we can project a potential "Roadmap" price may follow while outlining the rest of the Impulse and Corrective Waves where we see Price ultimately ending Wave 5 at the Potential Range Target of ( .7571 - .89441 ) Rules: - The 2nd Wave cannot retrace the 1st Wave more than 100% - The 3rd Wave can never be the shortest of the Impulse Waves ( 1,3,5 ) - The 4th Wave cannot retrace the 3rd Wave more than 100%
COINBASE:HBARUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
Potential expanded flat scenerio for the bear. As bearish as I am I believe that the market is going to print an expanded flat scenario. But Market can do whatever they want it can turn this expanded flat into a bullish scenario. Therefore I am looking forward to spot long at this area as there is a potential a 20% to 30% gain by just holding spot. Having a leverage future long as this region is a little bit risky but if I would like to log it in a leverage I would look for another low before actually deciding that a long position would be favorable. But if you are trading Bitcoin in the spot then I would suggest that we can start dcaing right here. There is a lot of support at this area that I marked which lens on somewhere around 74k. But if we lose this support then I'm expecting the market to go deep further down to at least 69k. But without any proof of certainty I cannot chart the market as if it's about to happen just yet. So I would wait for the market to show me more significant downside move before I actually think that the bull is over.
Short
by pandacham88
GOLD → Long-sqeeze (double bottom) before breakout 2926FX:XAUUSD is forming the maneuver we need regarding the previously mentioned consolidation. False break of support on the background of the rising market, we discussed it with you yesterday. The reaction is the formation of a reversal set-up and bullish momentum This week the markets are awaiting the JOLTS jobs report (today) and CPI data (Wednesday), which could provide fresh impetus to prices. Additional pressure comes from expectations of US-Ukraine peace talks, a possible mineral agreement and ongoing trade tensions related to Trump's protectionism. However, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields are supporting gold, limiting its losses Gold may test yesterday's high and after a slight pullback continue to rise with a target of retesting the 2926 consolidation resistance. The market structure is bullish at the moment and it plays to our advantage.... Resistance levels: 2918, 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2905, 2893.5, 2880 At the moment the price is still in consolidation, but the price is forming a bullish rally due to the collected liquidity in the Asian session. The local pattern “double bottom” is formed (false breakdown of support) and the next target is the resistance of consolidation 2926. Also focus on 2918 - possible retest and pullback to 0.5 fibo before the price will storm 2926. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
GOLD → Strong consolidation. What could happen?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the range of 2926 - 2890. The market is generally bullish, but there is a high probability of a short / long-squeeze before the strong news, which will be on Wednesday. Markets are waiting for data on inflation and employment in the U.S., which may affect the Fed's decisions. Despite a weaker dollar and expectations of monetary easing, Fed chief Jerome Powell remains cautious. Gold demand is supported by China, which is increasing purchases, as well as growing fears of stagflation in the US. However, traders are keeping an eye on new economic data and the impact of Chinese tariffs on US goods Technically, the focus is on 2926 - 2890. The ideal scenario in a bull market would be a false break of the support at 2893 - 2890 and further growth due to the change of imbalance in the market after liquidation and liquidity capture. But, based on the current situation (strong range) there is a high probability of short-squeeze or long-squeeze. Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2893, 2890 At the moment the emphasis is on 2926. Formation of pre-breakout consolidation, further breakout and price consolidation above the resistance can provoke a bullish impulse. But the difficulty is that the support has not been tested yet. If the price approaches 2926 very quickly, a false breakout could be made and in that case the price could go down to 2890 to retest the liquidity zone before storming 2926 for further upside. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
POPCATUSDT → False breakout of bearish trend resistanceBINANCE:POPCATUSDT.P is testing trend resistance on the 4H timeframe. A sharp approach and a false breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel may provoke a correction or continuation of the decline The global trend is downtrend, the locational trend also coincides with the global trend. Bitcoin cannot become a bullish driver for altcoins yet. Yesterday's economic news also had a negative impact on the market. In addition, the cryptocurrency community was betting big on Trump, but he has put cryptocurrencies on the back burner. Technically, POPCAT is testing the channel resistance with a false breakout within the downtrend. Consolidation of the price below 0.322 could trigger further selling. Resistance levels: 0.322, correction resistance Support levels: 0.2386, 0.1596 I do not exclude the possibility of retesting the resistance of the correction channel, but due to bearish pressure and weak market the decline may continue. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
SOLVUSDT → Retest of resistance in a bearish trendBINANCE:SOLVUSDT is strengthening within a neutral range, which is formed amid a downtrend. Cryptocurrency market quickly sells off potential after Sunday's news Bitcoin is back to the selling zone, under the 90K area. A subsequent decline in the flagship could negatively impact the entire market. SOLV is forming a range of 0.044 - 0.0292. The price is strengthening and tends to the zone of interest and liquidity. Against the background of key preconditions (downtrend, weak market, absence of driver, falling bitcoin) we can assume that the coin has no potential for further growth and the current maneuver may end up with a false break of resistance followed by a fall. Resistance levels: 0.0436, 0.0439, 0.0494 Support levels: 0.0369, 0.0345 From the opening of the session, the daily ATR will be exhausted by the time resistance is reached, thus there will be no potential for resistance breakout. High probability of a bounce from 0.0436-0.0439 with the purpose of further fall to the key zones of interest located below. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
BTC, Fibs, Market Psychology, and You: A Primer The Setup I've identified a compelling technical setup that suggests BTC could be heading toward the $9,000-$9,850 range. This isn't just another bearish call - it's based on a rare convergence of multiple technical factors that I've rarely seen align so perfectly in my 18 years of trading markets. Technical Confluence Zone What makes this setup particularly compelling is the convergence of multiple independent technical factors around the same price zone: 1. Unfilled CME Gap : The Bitcoin futures chart shows a persistent unfilled gap from 2020 between $9,655 and $9,850. This gap has survived multiple market cycles without being filled, making it increasingly significant. 2. Key Fibonacci Level : The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $9,024.11, remarkably close to the lower bound of the CME gap when accounting for the typical futures premium over spot. 3. Elliott Wave Structure : The current price action suggests we're in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave pattern. Wave 4 corrections often retrace to previous Wave 1 territory, which aligns with this target zone. 4. Fibonacci Time Cycles : The time component is equally important - Fibonacci time extensions suggest we're approaching a potential inflection point in the current cycle. Market Context Supports the Technical Picture The technical setup doesn't exist in a vacuum. Several market conditions increase the probability of this scenario playing out: 1. Market Saturation : The crypto ecosystem has expanded dramatically, with thousands of tokens diluting liquidity that was once concentrated in major cryptocurrencies. 2. Retail Exhaustion : Retail investors who entered during previous hype cycles feel unrewarded despite price recoveries, leading to diminished enthusiasm and buying pressure. 3. Institutional Distribution: Wall Street and institutions have made their presence known, which historically signals they've distributed their high-priced holdings to retail while preparing short positions. 4. Concentrated Leverage Risk : MicroStrategy's position of 499,500 BTC at a $66,000 average purchase price, funded almost entirely by massive debt issuance, creates a significant systemic vulnerability. A move toward our target zone would put extreme pressure on their balance sheet. Broader Market Context This analysis also coincides with what looks to be a tired stock market following the 2024 US presidential election. With Donald Trump winning his second term, we have seen significant policy shifts that are actively impacting both traditional and crypto markets. Historically, markets often experience increased volatility during transitions of power, and the confluence of this political shift with our technical setup creates an even more compelling case for caution. Additionally, price precedes news. The news is created on price. If you're hearing about an event, the trade has already been made. There is too much talk of unprecedented institutional participation. This is another sign that retail is being distributed to for the next meltdown. Bags were already offloaded. It's time to drop the anchor. Historical Perspective Having traded through multiple market cycles since 2007 I've seen this pattern before. Large players often target overleveraged positions to acquire assets at distressed prices. Michael Saylor experienced a leveraged meltdown once before during the dot-com crash - history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Saylor is a designated whipping boy. A patsy. He will be rewarded well for his participation in fleecing you, so don't worry about what kind of skin he has in the game. With that said, I believe an undetermined Black Swan event will be necessary to complete the rug pull. What that is, I cannot know. Trading Implications This analysis suggests several potential trading strategies: 1. Risk Management : Reduce exposure to Bitcoin and high-beta altcoins until this technical target is reached or invalidated. 2. Opportunity Preparation : Build dry powder positions to capitalize on what could be an exceptional buying opportunity if BTC reaches the $9,000-$9,850 zone. 3. Watch for Triggers : Monitor for breakdowns below key support levels that could accelerate the move toward our target zone. 4. Time-Based Entries : Use the Fibonacci time cycle extensions to refine entry timing if the price approaches our target zone. Conclusion While Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain strong, the confluence of technical factors pointing to the $9,000-$9,850 range suggests a significant correction may occur before the next sustained bull run. The catalysts to reach what should be a $250k range this cycle simply do not exist, and with waning macroeconomic strength, the odds of this cycle being anything other than a massive bulltrap are low. This setup represents one of the strongest technical cases I've seen. I also don't care to share my ideas often, but with everyone expecting a typical crypto market cycle, I feel compelled to offer my take on a public forum--for whatever it may be worth. I am not shorting this market. I have removed my capital and taken an observant position. While I feel strongly about my idea--Clown World has fully taken hold and I don't dare test its resolve to break me. Remember that no analysis is guaranteed - always manage risk accordingly and be prepared to adapt as the market evolves. *Disclaimer: This analysis represents my personal view of the markets based on technical analysis and market observations. It should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.*
INDEX:BTCUSD
by greedyboi
1
GREAT LONG OPPORTUNITY HAS COME✅ PREVIOUSLY ON ETH We thought that it could be the bottom at 870. We were waiting for the long opportunity after 2030. ✅WHERE WE ARE ETH is at the strong support line. We expect the strong bullish impulse at the moment. 💡The absolute principle for trading💡 LONG- as low as possible SHORT - as high as possible PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO SMASH LIKE👍🏻 AND FOLLOW ME❤ IT MOTIVATES ME TO THE NEXT IDEA! THANK YOU 🎉 *As long as 1073 remains unbroken, this idea is valid.
Long
by waveslover
1