XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short 🟡 XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short Setup in Play
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence
✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.
🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.
🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).
🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:
📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level
🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:
0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6
1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81
Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200
📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely
🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level
💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.
📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:
Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140
📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.
💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.
Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.
🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.
📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.
Elliott Wave
XLMUSDT Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XLM/USDT for a buying opportunity around 0.2730 zone, XLM/USDT is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.2730 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD is completing a triangleEURUSD is completing a triangle. This triangle is wave b of a zigzag correction that followed a 5-wave pattern. This 5-wave pattern is actually wave A. After the zigzag completes at point C, which I marked with a red arrow, wave B ends and I expect a 5-wave upward wave C.
XAUUSD M15 Analysis – Wave 3 in Progress with Momentum Sell Conf🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The M15 chart has completed a 5-wave impulsive decline, followed by a clear ABC corrective structure.
Price has now broken below the (B) wave low, suggesting the beginning of Wave 3 to the downside.
A bearish sell zone is identified between 3208 – 3215, which aligns with previous structure and Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has printed a fresh red histogram bar, confirming a momentum sell signal—perfect timing for Wave 3 initiation.
🎯 Trade Setup:
Sell Limit Zone: 3208 – 3215 (shaded red area)
Stop Loss: Just above Wave (C) high or around 3218
Take Profit Zone: Targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (~3180 area)
📌 Confluence Factors:
Elliott Wave structure supports the Wave 3 sell.
AO confirms bearish momentum returning after correction.
Strong rejection expected from previous structure zone (supply area).
⚠️ Risk Note:
Wave 3 often brings strong movement—stay disciplined with stop placement and position sizing.
💬 This setup is clean and supported by momentum tools—wait for a pullback into the zone and let price action confirm before entering.
USDJPY Short: Continue Wave 3 downThis is an update to the original USDJPY short idea posted 2 days back. We have completed wave 1 and wave 2 and is currently on wave 3. There is a break of a trendline that helps confirm our wave 3 hypothesis.
The initial target remains the same at around $140. However, the stop loss is now lowered to 147.20, above wave 2 high.
Good luck!
EURJPY H1 Analysis – Wave 4 Retracement in Play🕐 Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 17 May 2025
📌 Pair: EURJPY
⸻
🔍 Technical Outlook:
• Price is in a clear bearish trend, respecting lower highs and lower lows.
• Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows bearish convergence — momentum is weakening but still bearish overall.
• Price retraced to the 2.618–2.786 extension zone (162.902–162.982), a common wave 4 reaction level.
• This zone may act as a rejection area, setting up for the start of wave 5.
⸻
🔧 Elliott Wave Structure:
• ✅ Wave 1–3: Completed with strong bearish momentum.
• 🟡 Wave 4: Likely completed at 162.982 or may slightly extend, but momentum is fading.
• 🔴 Wave 5: Expected next move — continuation to the downside.
⸻
📍 Key Levels:
• 🔺 Wave 4 Resistance Zone: 162.902–162.982
• 🔻 Potential Wave 5 Target:
• 🎯 TP1: 162.000
• 🎯 TP2: 161.835 (Fib 4.236 extension)
• 🎯 TP3 (Extension): 161.50 or lower if selling accelerates
⸻
🧠 Strategy:
1. Monitor price action at 162.982 — if rejected, likely wave 4 completed.
2. Look for bearish engulfing / momentum candles for entry signal.
3. Short Setup Idea:
• Entry: Below 162.88–162.90 after confirmation
• SL: Above wave 4 high (163.12 or tighter at 163.00)
• TP: 100+ pip potential — trailing to lock profit
⸻
✅ Summary:
• AO confirms bearish convergence → weak momentum
• Price hit Fib confluence zone → wave 4 likely done
• Wave 5 could give 100+ pips to the downside
• Wait for confirmation, then short the breakdown
Cosmos - Manipulation?This idea is valid as long as the structure in the orange box maintains its three wave structure.
To prepare for a big run, it goes without saying that there must be some sort of accumulation and manipulation to occur.
In this case, I propose this expanded flat structure where we took the high out to kill the shorts and also trap buyers. Then, terminate that low to take out the buyers and trap sellers.. where we will enter a long into the big move.
NIFTY Resumes Its Bullish TrendHello traders! Today we will talk about an Indian stock market exchange NIFTY 50, as we see nice and clean pattern from technical and Elliott wave perspective.
As you can see, NIFTY is in an impulsive bullish rise on the weekly basis, which looks like a higher degree wave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse by Elliott wave theory.
After recent corrective slowdown in subwave (4), which perfectly tested channel support line and 38,2% Fibonacci retracement, we can now see it extending even higher, ideally for subwave (5) of a higher degree wave 3 that can push the price even up to 28k-30k area this year, just watch out on short-term pullbacks.
LINK/USDT is Nearing The UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring LINK/USDT for a buying opportunity around 15.20 zone, LINK/USDT is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 15.20 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DEEP 2H AnalysisHey traders! 👋
I’m watching a potential Wave 3 impulsive move forming on DEEP/USDT that could present a strong bullish opportunity. Let’s break it down 👇
🔹 Structure Overview:
We’ve completed a five-wave impulse upward (Wave 1 ✅), followed by an irregular corrective Wave 2 (ABC correction). This setup opens the door for a classic Elliott Wave 3, which tends to be the strongest leg in the sequence.
🟩 Entry Zone: 0.195 – 0.205
🎯 TP: 0.256
🛑 SL: 0.182
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3
📌 Remember:
Take care of your risk and money management. Always size your positions according to your plan.
💬 What do you think? Does this count look solid to you, or are you seeing a different wave scenario? Drop your thoughts below ⬇️
Gold's Rally Resumes (Elliott Wave)Gold's decline to today's low has satisfied the minimum requirements to consider the correction over.
The April to May decline corrected in a double zigzag labeled ((w))-((x))-((y)). There are 3 geometric relationships pointing to today's low as an important bottom.
1. Wave ((y)) was equal to wave ((w)) at today's low, a common wave relationship.
2. Additionally, wave (c) of ((y)) was 61.8% times wave (a) of ((y))...another common wave relationship.
3. Lastly, the previous all-time high from early April clocks in at 3,167...the broken resistance acts as new support holding up prices.
The runway is cleared for gold to take off to new all-time highs again.
In the unexpected event of a decline below today's low, the next cluster of wave relationships appears near 2,950.
Bitcoin at PRZ! Is This the Calm Before a Drop?As I expected in yesterday's idea , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to rise from near the Support line and hit the Target .
Bitcoin is trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , the upper line of the ascending channel(minor) , and the Resistance line .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has successfully completed the microwave B of the main wave 4 in the ascending channel(minor). A break of the lower line of the ascending channel(minor) could be a sign of the completion of this wave. The corrective structure of the main wave 4 so far could be a Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $100,923 AFTER breaking the lower line of the ascending channel(minor) and breaking the Support line, the next target could be the lower line of the ascending channel(major) .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $106,943-$105,913
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,525-$104,500
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $100,763-$99,774
Note: If Bitcoin goes above $105,300, we can expect more pumps.
Note: If Bitcoin touches $99,400, we should expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Today's analysis is full of scribbles...Well, we've got a clean setup with a range box, indicating a weakening bearish trend. There's an Elliott correction that seems to have completed and now the overall bullish trend is likely to resume.
We're seeing a strong uptrend on the weekly timeframe. The bullish BOS (Break of Structure) has been touched several times and looks exhausted now.
We've got a key Fibonacci level, which is the most important area right now. There are multiple order blocks around as well.
In short, I gave you a simple breakdown — go ahead, analyze it yourself and look for entries.
Wishing you all success and green trades!
GOLD → Correction ahead of news. Will the decline resume?FX:XAUUSD has been buying back all the losses from the Asian and Pacific sessions since the opening of the European session, but this looks more like a catapult being loaded...
GOLD broke through the global consolidation base of 3200, which only confirmed the bearish market structure. Investors are waiting for PPI and retail sales data in the US, as well as Fed Chair Powell's speech.
Expectations of fewer Fed rate cuts and optimism surrounding trade talks with China and South Korea continue to weigh on gold. However, weak macro data and a growing US budget deficit could revive interest in this safe-haven asset.
GOLD is in a correction phase and is heading towards the zone of interest: the liquidity zone and previously broken support of global consolidation.
Resistance levels: 3187-3190, 3200
Support levels: 3123, 3100
Gold may test the indicated resistance, but based on the nature of the market, this situation may end in a false breakout and a fall. Target 3123 - 3100.
However, unpredictable data may temporarily change the market, which could lead to momentum towards 3220-3230.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Bitcoin ready to test support before risingThe volume profile indicates a clear boundary of the trading range - consolidation support as a target for the current local movement.
102200 - 101400 - panic zone, price may enter this zone, provoke bids (buyers' stoplosses and speculators' sales) and return to the range, which will activate a zone of interest for the market - 103930.
Scenario: the price is trading inside the consolidation with clear boundaries - support and resistance. The price is aiming for the support within a bullish trend. False breakdown of support may trigger a rebound and growth. Target 103930 - 105000
NIFTY 50 - Elliott Wave 5 Completion (Gap Confirmation Awaited )📝 Analysis:
The Nifty 50 index has shown classic Elliott Wave behavior, with clear 5-wave structure completion observed on multiple timeframes.
🟢 90-minute Chart (Left Panel):
A full 5-wave Elliott structure is marked.
Price has completed wave 5, indicating potential exhaustion.
Oscillator shows momentum weakening with a potential bearish divergence developing.
Immediate downside correction zone is highlighted near ₹23,800.
🟠 15-minute Chart (Right Panel):
Expanding wave 4-5 move is observed.
Within the larger 4-5 wave, a smaller degree internal 5-wave uptrend has completed.
Negative divergence confirmed on histogram indicator, suggesting potential reversal or exhaustion.
The last leg (5th wave within 5) indicates aggressive short covering, often preceding exhaustion gaps.
📊 Key Trigger for Next Move:
Next day Gap Up (Exhaustion Gap) or Gap Down (Breakaway Gap) will be crucial.
Gap Up without follow-through indicates up-move halt → potential reversal.
Gap Down will confirm halt of up-move → initiate corrective decline towards ₹23,800.
Watch for candlestick confirmation post-gap.
🎯 Targets & Levels to Watch:
Immediate support: ₹23,800
Breakdown below this level could trigger deeper retracement.
Upside is limited unless fresh breakout sustains above current highs with volume.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Ideal to wait for GAP confirmation (opening tick next day).
Strict stop-loss if shorting should be placed above wave 5 high.
Avoid pre-emptive shorts without confirmation.
🟡 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any investment or trading decision. Markets are subject to high risks.
ETHEREUM → Consolidation. Which way will the distribution go?BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P has moved into a consolidation phase after the distribution phase. Focus on the 2414-2725 range. A retest of support is possible during the current phase. Despite the bullish trend, there are risks of a reversal...
ETH has been a fairly unprofitable project over the past few years, with the price hitting one bottom after another. While Bitcoin and altcoins were flying high, ETH has only shown itself to be a bull in the last few days.
In the current phase, the focus is on the consolidation boundaries, as well as the 2550 level. If the bulls keep the market above 2550, then the coin could strengthen to 2725, which would be a positive sign for us that buyers are interested in continued growth.
If ETH continues its correction towards support at 2414, then we will need to monitor the market's reaction to this level. I remain skeptical about ETH due to its weak long-term performance despite a strong fundamental backdrop.
Resistance levels: 2550, 2725
Support levels: 2414, 2260
Further movement will determine the price's exit from consolidation: a breakdown of support means a fall, a breakout of resistance means growth. But the current scenario is trading within the range. If ETH trades near 2725 and forms a pre-breakout consolidation, then we will have a chance for growth.
The opposite scenario is if the price falls below 2550 and begins to test 2414. In this case, sticking to the support level and numerous retests will indicate that the bull market has exhausted its strength and we can expect a correction to 2260-2065.
Best regards, R. Linda!
EUR/USD – Bullish Wave 3 in Play | AO Convergence + Fib Target PPair: EUR/USD
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Date: May 15, 2025
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
This analysis focuses on a clean impulsive Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci projections, and Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirmation to support a bullish continuation.
🔍 Wave Count:
Wave 1: Clear impulsive push upwards, breaking previous market structure.
Wave 2: Completed corrective pullback into the key support zone, respecting the golden ratio levels.
Wave 3: Initiated after a dominant break above the minor structure and trendline resistance, confirming bullish momentum.
⚙️ AO (Awesome Oscillator) Confirmation:
Strong AO divergence between the Wave 1 and Wave 2 low confirms the bullish structure.
Within the early stage of Wave 3, the AO shows a convergence pattern forming between subwaves 1, 2, and 3 — indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
AO flipped green again after a minor pullback, signaling bullish continuation potential.
🎯 Fibonacci Extensions:
TP1 Zone: 1.618 – 1.88 Fibonacci extension range → 1.1216 – 1.1226
(High probability for Wave 3 termination)
TP2 Zone: 2.618 – 2.88 Fibonacci extension range → 1.1241 – 1.1258
(Extended target if bullish momentum accelerates)
Further projections (Wave 5 estimate):
4.236 – 4.618 → 1.1276 – 1.1288
🧱 Key Structural Zone:
1.11813 is the most critical support-turned-resistance (SNR) level — price broke above this level, retested, and bounced.
The green highlighted box marks the ideal buy zone, aligned with:
Dominant break confirmation
Fibonacci confluence
Bullish AO setup
✅ Trade Plan:
Entry: On retest or bounce from the green zone
Stop Loss: Below 1.11800 or below Wave 2 low (to protect structure)
Take Profit 1: 1.1216 – 1.1226
Take Profit 2: 1.1241 – 1.1258
Optional TP3 (extended): 1.1276 – 1.1288 (Wave 5 projection)
🧭 Summary:
This setup combines Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci projections, and AO convergence to provide a highly probable bullish continuation scenario. Ideal for breakout traders and structure-based wave analysts.
📌 “Confluence is key. Let structure, momentum, and fibs guide the trade.”
#EURUSD #ElliottWave #Wave3 #AOIndicator #ForexAnalysis #Fibonacci #PriceAction #FXTrading #StructureBreak #TechnicalAnalysis
XAUUSD Correction Phase May Present Upside PotentialOn the 1-hour timeframe, I estimate that XAUUSD is currently at the end of wave v of wave (c). This suggests that the recent correction is relatively limited, having already tested the 3096–3122 area. Going forward, XAUUSD has the potential to strengthen toward the 3192–3250 zone.