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Elliott Wave

EURUSD Stays In Downtrend After ECB Cut RatesThe Euro is weak across the board after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as expected. More importantly, Christine Lagarde noted that data suggests the economy in the Eurozone is weakening, which means there could be more rate cuts on the table in the future. However, this will depend on upcoming data, as noted by the ECB President. Looking at the wave counts, we are definitely seeing a bearish impulse. The only question is whether we will still see a fourth wave rally, or if higher ABC recovery will show up. In either case, there should be more weakness after the next bounce, which I will track closely for potential shorts. Strong resistance is definitely around 1.09 to 1.0950. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
FILUSDT → Weakness in altcoins will manifest itself in decliningBINANCE:FILUSDT after a false breakdown of the 3.800 range resistance is giving signs towards the continuation of the decline. The coin is in a global and local downtrend and there are no reasons to change direction. The focus is on the support of 3.688. Altcoins are extremely weak on the back of bitcoin's strong rally. The dominance of the flagship is currently at record highs, and the altcoin season has not arrived and apparently will not come anytime soon. Bitcoin is testing strong resistance zones and cannot grow all the time. Any short-term reaction can affect the entire cryptocurrency market, which will color the coins in the red. Support levels: 3.688 Resistance levels: 3.800 Technically, relative to 3.688 a descending triangle is forming after a false breakdown of the range resistance. It is a rather strong conglomerate. Breakout of 3.688 and price consolidation below this area will provoke further selling and price decline to 3.4 - 3.3 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:FILUSDT ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
9
EURUSD → Active sale. Emphasis on 1.0900FX:EURUSD continues to update lows since the fundamental background and uptrend change. Price is descending in a calm and progressive manner, which generally indicates the strength of the trend... A strong drop from the distribution phase without any pullbacks is an indicator of a strong trend. There is a key liquidity zone ahead, which could form a surge in volume and liquidity that could lead to a small correction. For example to 1.095 - 0.7 fibo. On the Daily chart we see the realization of a failed breakout (false breakout), a strong distribution is formed. The liquidity at 1.077 - 1.067 may become the target of such a movement Resistance levels: 1.095, 1.100 Support levels: 1.089, 1.077 There is no news until Wednesday, so the fundamental background remains the same. The market may stop and go into consolidation, but with a high probability the fall after the breakthrough of 1.089 will continue... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
10
SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci ExtensionBased on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done. Back to this idea itself. As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts: Highest Intermediate Blue Wave Middle Minor Green Wave Lowest Minute Purple Wave All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high. I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels: 1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure. 2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5. Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market. This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by yuchaosng
2
To infinity & BYON - $375-$660 BYON is replicating the same fractal from 2012-2018 but on a grander scale It has reached the end of its downtrend (B) and will soon resume Wave C - of equal length to A. In the short-term BYON is about to cross above a steep downtrend line (yellow), just like it did in May 2012 and April 2020. RSI is incredibly oversold on all timeframes (38 on 3D, 32 on W) but will soon exit the RSI bear zone (in red). Target of $375 (38x from current levels of $10.11) coincides with the 1.272 fibonacci level Extended target of $660 (66x from current levels) translates to 1.414 fib. Time target is flexible but around June 2026 will likely be a great time to exit, if targets are met. Last time out in Feb 2018, BYON hit 1.414 fib in Wave C. Simple stop-loss of $8,a break-down from current levels. BYON by name, Beyond by nature! Thanks for reading. P.S. If you like the RSI Bull/Bear Thresholds indicator at the bottom of the screen, drop a comment below. It will soon be made available for a small audience of users for a reasonable fee.
NYSE:BYONLong
by DigiDavid
Matic Bottom has been found?Looking at this **MATIC order book** and heatmap, the behavior you're observing appears to further support your theory that a **big buyer is stepping in**. Here's what the data suggests: ### Key Observations from the Chart: 1. **Large Buy Orders and Clustering**: - The **order book** shows **heavy buy walls** forming around the **$0.343 to $0.347 range**. These significant clusters of buy orders suggest that larger market participants (likely institutions or big players) are trying to **accumulate** at these levels. This buy wall creates a strong floor for the price, preventing it from dropping lower and absorbing any selling pressure. - Additionally, the **green bubbles** on the heatmap correspond to significant buying activity. These large buy orders could be efforts by **big players to accumulate** before a potential upward move. 2. **Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)**: - The **CVD indicator** shows a value of **176,447**, which is positive and increasing. This metric reflects the **net buying pressure**—when CVD is rising, it suggests that buyers are overwhelming sellers. In your case, this increasing CVD further supports the idea that buyers are stepping in aggressively and accumulating MATIC, potentially leading to a price push higher. 3. **Price Reaction to Support**: - The price action appears to be holding firmly above **$0.34**, where buy walls are present. Each time the price dips near these levels, it quickly recovers, indicating that buyers are actively defending this zone. - This aligns with the idea of **accumulation**, where large buyers aim to fill their orders at lower prices while keeping the market from falling too much. This also supports your suspicion that big money might be preparing for a larger upward move. ### What This Could Mean: - **Accumulation Before a Breakout**: - This pattern of **strong buying interest** at lower levels and the price's inability to drop much further suggests that we could be in the final stages of an **accumulation phase**. Once the large buyers have filled their orders, the price could rise as buying demand overtakes supply. - The rising **CVD** and **buy walls** signal that upward pressure is building. If sellers run out of momentum and can't push the price lower, we might see a breakout above key resistance levels soon. ### Strategy and Watch Points: - **Watch for Breakouts Above Resistance**: The next logical step would be to watch for a break above **$0.36-$0.365**, where resistance might currently lie. A break above this level could confirm the **completion of accumulation** and the start of a new bullish leg. - **Monitor CVD and Volume**: Continued positive CVD and increasing volume will signal that the buyers are still in control. If the CVD remains positive while the price breaks through resistance, it would strengthen the case for a rally. ### Conclusion: The data you’ve provided strongly supports the idea that **big buyers are stepping in**, likely accumulating MATIC before a push higher. The significant **buy walls**, **rising CVD**, and price stability around key support levels suggest that once accumulation is complete, the price could be ready to move higher. Would you like to go deeper into specific price targets or further technical levels to watch for confirmation of this potential move? Compiled with my Custom Elliot Wave GPT Research ai
COINBASE:MATICUSDLong
by Darth_Buddha
2
SPX Hitting Extreme Resistance Level - Epic Crash imminentBack in October 2021 I attempted to project a fibonacci ration that would predict the top of the current market cycle from the bottom of the 2008/2009 crash. I used smaller fibonacci rations such as the 236 and 146 to identify where a fibonacci from the top would end up. The result was approximately 5814. We passed this level this week and there is weakness showing. I believe this week ends with some type of abandoned baby pattern then we see the drop. I'm not sure what this corresponds to on a fundamental analysis level, but this one will be big. This would end a 5 wave elliot pattern Super Cycle from the 1920's crash where the 4th wave was the 2008/2009. Good luck everyone!
TVC:SPXShort
by Cavedrew
31
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term. As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected. While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change. We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future. Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
NASDAQ:ASML
by freeguy_by_wmc
6
Tesla (TSLA): Stuck in a Range after Robo Taxi rumors fizzledAfter being stopped out on our second entry in Tesla, it's time to take another look, although it has been quite uneventful since the big rise on the Robo Taxi rumors back in July. It was a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, showcasing how markets tend to price in events well ahead of their occurrence. Musk's statement that Cybercab production could begin "before 2027" is also seen as highly questionable, given his history of missed deadlines. Tesla recently got approval from local authorities near its gigafactory in Berlin to move forward with its three-stage expansion plan. Despite protests from locals, this approval allows the company to start building infrastructure for storage facilities, a battery cell test lab, and logistics areas. All of this will take place on land already owned by Tesla. Whether this expansion will be beneficial or problematic for the company remains to be seen in the coming months. Currently, we still have our limit order from $177 running, and things are looking alright. To better illustrate the situation, we added a fresh chart of Tesla’s range, which clearly shows the situation. After reclaiming the range middle in July, Tesla briefly dipped below but rebounded perfectly from $183, a critical POC (Point of Control). Since July, Tesla hasn’t made any new higher highs, nor has it made lower lows, placing the stock in a tight range. If Tesla loses the range middle, we could see a drop to $183 or even $160. On the upside, breaking above the range high would be essential for further momentum. It's crucial to focus on higher time frame levels and avoid getting caught up in short-term news or noise. We’ll continue to monitor Tesla’s key levels and update you if any significant movement occurs. 🤝
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bitcoin Roadmap!!!==>>Falling!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )is currently hovering near the Resistance zone($70,080-$68,250) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , the Upper line of the Ascending Channel , and Important Resistance lines(Bitcoin is attacking important resistance lines for the fifth time.) . According to Elliott's wave theory, Bitcoin seems to be completing the main wave 5 . The structure of the main wave 5 can be Ending Diagonal . Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect Bitcoin to fail again on the 5th attack to the important resistance lines , and to break the lower line of the descending channel and decline to at least the first target on my chart. We should expect more Bitcoin dumps if Bitcoin loses the Support zone($66,500-$64,480) . ⚠️Note: Tension between Iran and Israel could increase in the coming days, causing a sharp drop in Bitcoin.⚠️ ⚠️Note: Open interest in futures markets has reached its highest level in 2024, while Volume Trading has decreased.⚠️ ⚠️Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($70,080-$68,250) and Resistance lines, we should wait for a new All-Time High(ATH) for Bitcoin.⚠️ Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
32
GOLD → Will the bears allow the bulls to go through ATH?FX:XAUUSD is growing unpredictably towards ATH. The market did not react in any way to last week's US fundamental data and now the price is not reacting to strong levels and liquidity zones. Ahead of ATH after 3 weeks of forming... Investors remain cautious as the US Fed is expected to follow a path of moderate interest rate cuts (skipping a cut in November, or a 0.25% cut) The gold price is actively supported by the tense situation in the Chinese markets and lower US Treasury yields, which helps the gold price to take another leap towards the ATH. Now all eyes will be on Thursday when China holds a press conference and the US retail sales report is released Resistance Levels: 2680-2685 Support levels: 2665, 2658, 2645 Technically, I don't think that the market will let the resistance breakout happen the first time. The pullback from 2685, formed 3 weeks ago, was made on the back of strong economic data, so the huge pool of liquidity above 2685 can be defended quite aggressively by the bears. Technically, there are no signs for the continuation of growth. They may appear after the retest, but it will become clear after the fact. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
GBPUSD → Support breakdown. CPI in the UK is declining... FX:GBPUSD confirms the bearish market structure. The price is breaking the support. Fundamental data is favorable for further continuation of the fall. UK Inflation: m/m = 0% (expectation +0.1% / previously +0.3%) YoY = +1.7% (expected +1.9% / previously +2.2%) Core CPI = +3.2% y/y (expected +3.4% / previously +3.6%) The USD index are rising on strong US economic data (last week's potential). All these data together have a corresponding impact on the currency pair, which breaks the support of the uptrend. A price consolidation below 1.3000 (strong psychological level) will open the way to 1.28-1.26. Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2938 Resistance levels: 1.309 Selling on the currency pair is intensifying, the price is entering the risk zone and the buyers are getting even more nervous... In the short term, a retest of the previously broken trend support is possible, followed by a fall towards 1.28-1.26 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
Coinbase UpdateI haven't been posting the micros lately because it is so easy to get lost in the weeds. I know I have some of you that prefer to break these counts down to learn though so I thought I would add the micro chart on this post. This is the 15min chart, and as you can see, price appears to be moving in a 3-wave pattern. Starting on 06 Sept price chopped higher in a double zigzag pattern for the sub-minuette a. This was followed by a 3-wave move lower that I have labeled as the b wave. Since then, we have risen with strength which represents the c wave of this pattern higher. This sub-minuette abc pattern makes up what I am now calling the minor B wave. Our target for the termination of this pattern is the 0.618-0.786 @ $214.77-$238.48. Looking at MACD, you can see we're creating a new local high on negative divergence. This signifies that the pattern is running out of steam. I think it a high possibility that price continues raising to the target box and begins to chop creating a couple new local highs all while carving out greater neg div. This will set the pattern up to move lower again. One thing to remember with corrective patterns is they can continue creating more and more sub-divisions. Just when you think it should be the last sub-division another one comes along. This change in the structure doesn't invalidate the overall pattern. All it means is that price is taking a different road to our final target. That target area remains $143-$126 and I see no reason to think price won't end up consolidating in that area.
NASDAQ:COIN
by TSuth