Something happened I have no idea why this is happening, but we are going deep down.
If we’re lucky, we might see 65 SAR.
the target is 52 SAR, and it could keep going lower.
Elliott Wave
USD/MXN Mirrors 2017 Reversal; Elliott Wave Pointing Lower Back in 2016–2017, we first saw a very sharp recovery on USD/MXN, but when Trump took office in January 2017, the market reversed strongly lower, falling all the way from 22 to 17.60, lost nearly 20% . That very similar pattern is now becoming visible again with 2024–2025 price action. Last year, after Trump won the US election, we saw significant depreciation of the Mexican peso, but since he has officially taken office in January, we’re seeing a complete reversal—just like in 2017.
In fact, the Mexican peso has been gaining nicely over the past few months, likely based on speculation that Trump will find the agreement and trade deals with other countries, particularly related to tariffs. Since no one really benefits from trade wars, it’s not surprising that even Trump’s recent remarks reflect an acknowledgment of the global situation being unsustainable, especially when it comes to CHINA-US trade.
With that in mind, markets in general are likely to recover, and we’re already seeing some nice rebounds. And when stocks are in recovery mode, commodity currencies—including the peso—tend to perform well.
Looking at USD/MXN specifically, we’re seeing a strong reversal down from February highs, just like in 2017. The current drop hasn't even retraced 38.2% of the 2024 rally yet, which suggests more downside is likely—ideally toward the 19.00 area, maybe even 18.00 by year-end.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it's useful to zoom in on smaller time frames. The structure doesn’t look like completed impulse yet, so technically there can be more weakness coming. Resistance for wave four rally sits around the 19.77–19.84 zone, which aligns with Fibonacci projections for wave four, as well as swing lows from March and April.
This area could serve as a nice resistance of the current bounce, especially if the Fed delivers any dovish remarks this week. No rate cuts are expected, but even a hint at future cuts could send the US yields lower, which would weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—meaning commodity currencies could outperform.
In that case, USD/MXN could ideally fall back below 19.50.
Elliott Wave analysis also helps define clear invalidation levels, very important when it comes to potential trade setups. In this scenario, 20.16 is a key level to watch. A break above it would overlap with the start of the current move and signal that the bears are finished for now, thus I would need to adjust the view accordingly.
Grega
Fibonacci Confluence Fuels Gold’s Next Rally: Wave (Y) InsightThis 4-hour chart of XAU/USD is showcasing a WXY corrective pattern, a classic double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) correction after a strong impulsive move
Wave (W) has topped, marking the end of the first corrective leg.
A deep correction into the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level occurred with wave (X), forming a potential higher low within the red demand zone.
Now, wave (Y) is anticipated, which typically mirrors or slightly exceeds the length of wave (W) but in a more corrective format.
Target 1: 3292.629
Target 2: 3372.161
Stop loss: 3201.955
USDJPY 05/06/2025Scenario USDJPY TF H4
- Stick to your stop loss to protect your trades
- Manage your positions patiently until you hit the target
- Profit always in risk, take the risk or lose the chance
S&P500 Short Update: Break of TrendlineThis is an update to my short idea 2 days ago. I believed that the reversal for S&P500 has already begun and that I expect a move down from the breaking of the lower trendline.
Apologies for the audio as I am testing out a new setup (with a new portable microphone).
EURUSD main trend is up, but we are in the correction wavemain trend is up. depending on the correction we will have clear target i expect 1.19-1.23 closely watching the trend brakes. daily or h4 candle brakes are cruical. correction might be ending if not it might give us better buy opportunities around 1.11 or little bit below 1.11
Bitcoin ETF IBIT Next TargetThe Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD ETF NASDAQ:IBIT is shaping a 5-wave move toward a new ATH, set to complete its cycle within a regular impulse.
Key technical area for the next move higher:
🔵 Inverted wave (4) target : $66 - $73
🟡 Wave (1)(2) extension : $68
HSI maybe be raising for a week before fallingNo sign of RSI bullish divergence in 4hr and 1d graph right now.
Wait and see.
GOLD → Gold not ready to fall? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is forming a local bottom and is not ready to continue falling. The price is breaking through the downward resistance amid a weakening dollar and a complicated fundamental backdrop.
At the beginning of the week, the price of gold stabilized above $3,250 as investors returned to defensive assets due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade agreements with China and Japan, as well as growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The weakness of the dollar ahead of the Fed meeting and declining expectations of a rate cut are also supporting demand for gold. The focus remains on US trade news and the possible hawkish tone of the Fed this week.
Technically, the price is testing the bottom of the range as resistance. If there is no reaction to the false breakout and the price continues to storm 3268, then a breakout and consolidation above the level will allow it to strengthen to 3292-3314.
Resistance levels: 3269, 3294, 3314
Support levels: 3243, 3222, 3204
The price is forming a second retest of 3269 since the session opened. Buyers are testing resistance for a breakout. If the bulls break 3269 and consolidate above 3270, the chances for growth will be good. I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of the liquidity zone at 3243 before growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURJPY → False breakout of strong resistance at 164.FX:EURJPY rallies on news and reaches an important milestone. The liquidity pool formed above 164.00 may prevent the price from rising. There is a high chance of a false breakout.
Against the backdrop of the dollar's growth caused by PMI news, the currency pair is forming a retest of the key resistance level of 164.188 as part of a consolidation distribution and, with no possibility of continuing its growth, is making a false breakout.
Consolidation in the sell zone (below 164.188) will trigger a reversal and a fall.
Overall, the situation is neutral, with the market in a sideways range, and a false breakout could lead to a correction or reversal of the local trend.
Resistance levels: 164.188
Support levels: 163.17, 162.57
The formation of a reversal pattern relative to resistance and price consolidation below the level could give a good signal for a reversal.
Best regards, R. Linda!
USDJPY: Detail Technical Analysis and USDJPY CharacteristicsIn this long video, I go through USD/JPY short idea in 2 parts:
Part 1: Detailed Technical Analysis and Elliott Waves
1. Head and shoulders - daily
2. Completion of Elliott Waves
3. Breaking down of A-B-C
4. Measurement rules on profit targets.
Part 2: USDJPY as a product (characteristics)
1. It's a flight-to-safety product similar to Gold
2. thus also a short equity markets product.
2. It is a short dollar product.
SUI - A closer lookIn my previous SUI analysis, I currently have us in an impulse structure leading into the 5th wave.
Zoomed out, it seems we're still in a corrective structure. Looking to short at the TP of the long.
Starknet - Incoming Reversal?Starknet has been on a consistent downtrend. Its about time we finish this wave structure where we will see an impulse finish of Wave c.
Looking for the 5th wave to finish to sweep the low. However, the pullback seems very deep in that micro structure so its also likely we don't get that sweep. As long as we close below that wick from the green box and we can consider 5th wave to be done.
AUDCAD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
On the AUDCAD chart we see the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern. These waves from 1 to 5 are quite clear and you can even count its sub-waves.
Now wave 5 is forming and wave 5 of 5 is not yet completed.
So we expect the price to grow to the resistance level of 0.9000 and then we will see the price correction.
Good luck and be profitable.
NZDCHF Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
In the NZDCHF currency pair chart, we are witnessing the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern. These waves from 1 to 5 are clearly defined. Now this 5-wave pattern is an upward contracting triangle that usually forms in waves 1 or 4 or 5 or C.
Considering the counting of the previous waves, which is a wide ABC with a C wave extended or waves 1 to 3, we assume that we are facing wave 1 or 4. It is definitely not wave 5 or C.
So if it is wave 1, then it must correct at least 50 to 61.8% of Fibonacci from wave 1.
So the first target is the 04800 range.
If it is wave 5, it must go below the bottom of wave 3 and the second target is at least the 04600 range.
This movement usually occurs with a break of the trend line and a pullback to it.
Good luck and be profitable.
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either.
Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet.
They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now.
Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence.
So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high.
If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario.
Grega
