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Elliott Wave

GOLD → Retest of trend resistance before declineFX:XAUUSD is recovering amid uncertainty, but there is a fairly strong resistance zone ahead that could hold back growth and trigger a decline... Since the opening of the session, the price has recovered slightly after a week-long decline. Growth is being held back by two-sided risks: on the one hand, pressure on the dollar and Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating are supporting the metal, while on the other hand, high bond yields and possible US trade agreements are limiting growth. Investors are awaiting new statements from the Fed and are monitoring US negotiations with key partners. Amid concerns about fiscal stability and weak economic data, gold may remain in positive territory, but positive trade news could turn it down again. Resistance levels: 3257, 3265 Support levels: 3206, 3153 A false breakout of the specified resistance will confirm the inability to continue growth. Consolidation after a false breakout of 3257 - 3265 below 3257 could trigger a reversal and a fall to areas of interest... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
18
USDJPY → Support retest. Is the trend continuing?FX:USDJPY is storming key support within the local downtrend. Pressure is intensifying the dollar's decline... The dollar index is beginning to fall, which is also reflected in the currency pair. Selling pressure is intensifying. A local downtrend is forming, with an attempt to break through key support at 144.82, below which the path to 143.4 - 142 opens up. Consolidation of the price below 144.82 could intensify the sell-off. Resistance levels: 145.34, 146.07 Support levels: 144.82, 143.44, 142.35 Global and local trends are downward, and the fall of the dollar can only provide additional resistance, which will intensify the sell-off. A break of key support and consolidation of prices below 144.82 will trigger further sell-offs. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
14
BITCOIN → Consolidation in a triangle amid a BULLISH TRENDBINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating. A symmetrical triangle is forming against the backdrop of a bullish trend. Given the current technical nuances, we can bet that this consolidation is forming with the aim of continuing growth... Fundamental nuances have gradually improved over the past few weeks, and the cryptocurrency market has revived slightly. Technically, I like the market structure on D1. After strong growth, the price is not going to fall, consolidation is forming. The market is bullish, after 2-3 weeks of consolidation, a bullish distribution is forming. The cycle has repeated itself twice. On D1, you can see how long tails are forming downward within the consolidation, indicating that whales are buying up all attempts to fall, keeping the market away from risk zones. Accordingly, at the moment, I would say that consolidation may continue for some time, and I do not rule out an attempt to retest the triangle support before growth, or entry into a deeper zone to retest the distant liquidity zones of 101400 and 100700 before continuing growth. Resistance levels: 103.6, 104.4, 105.0 Support levels: 102.5, 101.4, 100.6 A decline can be considered if the price breaks the triangle support and sticks to 101400, forming a pre-breakdown consolidation (if there is no upward rebound). However, at the moment, intraday trading can be considered, i.e., from the consolidation boundaries. A signal to exit the consolidation upwards and continue growth will be consolidation between 103.5 and 105.0 and compression towards the upper boundary. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
21
Ending Diagonal Complete? Bounce Toward 1.60 AheadBTAI has likely completed an impulsive 5-wave decline followed by an ABC corrective structure. The final leg (v) of the downtrend appears to have ended near $1.35, where price action shows a reversal signal. Currently, price is attempting to recover and may retest the descending trendline and previous structure zone near $1.60 — a level that served as strong support previously and now acts as resistance. If the price breaks this zone with volume confirmation, it could trigger a short-term bullish breakout. Until then, this is considered a corrective rally within the broader downtrend. Key Levels: Support: $1.35 Resistance: $1.60 Target: $1.60 (potential +16%) Conclusion: A short-term bounce is unfolding. Watch $1.60 for reaction — rejection or breakout will determine the next leg.
NASDAQ:BTAILong
by CakirInsights
get in loser, we're going to 1M.gm, before i share my in-depth analysis, i just wanted to share a piece of my mind on how i approach this market: there are many valid trajectories constantly at play. most people only ever see one; and they get emotionally attached to it. it’s usually the one that validates their own internal bias. they follow people who align with their belief system, and they end up in an echo chamber of regurgitated information, all in the name of pride and ego. there’s nothing wrong with that, but you won’t find any of that on my page. when i create a projection, i’m not just drawing it out. i spend a thousand hours tuning into the vibe... i become it. temporarily, i am the trajectory, which allows me to speak from its perspective on a deep, intuitive level. i’m not here to convince you that my idea is playing out. i’m just showing you that it’s one of many valid trajectories in this market. this one here just happens to be my primary. it has been for years, and it will remain my primary until we, at the very least, reach 752k. now, that might sound mind-boggling to a lot of people, especially those still tuned into outdated belief systems or the mainstream media, which is incredibly gloomy right now. ---- what i have before you is a bullish nest that took 3 years to form; a structure built with precision and patience, and it's about to rip faces once the third wave explosively and unexpectedly begins. i’ve color-coded all the waves for your convenience, and i come to you this morning with a simple heads-up: a monumental breakout is about to unfold. and the harsh truth is, you’re probably not going to be a part of it because you got shaken out right before it began. --- 🌙 ---
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by notoriousbids
5
EURUSD Near Top Of Channel — Correction Imminent!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is trading in the Resistance zone($1.1310-$1.1162) , near the upper line of the descending channel and the Monthly Pivot Point . In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has completed five main impulse waves , and with the break of the Uptrend lines , we should expect corrective waves . Most likely, EURUSD is completing microwave 4 , and we should expect the next decline and the formation of microwave 5 . I expect EURUSD to fall to at least $1.1073 , and the next targets are marked on the chart. Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1330 , we should expect further gains. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
1
Is TSLA Going Strong Bullish?I believe we have seen the bottom of TSLA. And we are not going below 222 again. TSLA has been through some difficult corrections, which can be read in many different ways. After spending some time studying the 3-waves and 5-waves since the top in November 21, I believe I have a strong case in my reading, and I believe Elon is going to make TSLA a bullish stock again. We are right now in a wave 1, so there will be a small correction soon, but I don't believe we will go below 222 again.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TheDane
Inside The Eye Of The Storm - $90 Target On TSMCIf you've seen my posts on Minds (particularly the board for NASDAQ:SOX ), it’s no secret that I’ve been bearish on semiconductors for some time. My bearish thesis is based on several factors: technical indicators, overvaluation of certain companies, and skepticism that AI-driven demand will result in broad-based prosperity. As the charts grow increasingly overbought, unfolding geopolitical developments could soon deliver a shock to the semiconductor sector, reinforcing the technical signals I’m observing. At the time of writing, the market is turning bearish. Futures are down over 1%, and the TVC:US10Y is up nearly 2%. Institutional investors remain cautious about the U.S. economy due to its high debt levels and efforts to raise the debt ceiling to accommodate an additional $2 trillion in debt-financed tax cuts. Meanwhile, on the trade war front, the U.S. and China have agreed to deescalate tensions, a surprisingly smooth shift after weeks of posturing and brinkmanship. Although SP:SPX surged over 2% on the news, something feels off—worthy of speculation. Recent articles in Foreign Affairs (www.foreignaffairs.com) and The Economist (www.economist.com) suggest that President Xi may now see his best opportunity to fulfill his longstanding goal of reunifying China. I encourage reading those articles if you're interested, but here’s my take—and how it relates to a low-risk/high-reward short trade in semiconductors. By striking a tariff-reduction deal with the Trump administration, China has removed a key obstacle that could have otherwise hindered military action against Taiwan. While Trump has flip-flopped on Taiwan over the years, he has previously threatened sanctions and tariffs as deterrents. But with the economy already strained, reimposing tariffs of 145% or higher would be self-defeating. This opens the door for China to escalate. Over the past month, we’ve seen “gray zone” tactics: military drills, suspicious Chinese fishing vessels dragging anchors near undersea cables, and reports that China may use its coast guard to “quarantine” vessels heading to or from Taiwan—potentially inflicting serious economic pain. Such moves would place the U.S. in a precarious position. To compound the risk, Taiwan imports 90% of its energy—mostly LNG—and just shut down its last nuclear reactor on Friday (5/16), which supplied around 4.5% of the nation’s power. In 2023, NYSE:TSM alone used more than 8% of Taiwan’s electricity, according to Business Insider. Any disruption to power or communications would halt production. This leads me to believe that China may attempt to annex Taiwan before 2027. (After all, why announce an invasion years in advance?) According to WIRED, NYSE:TSM produces at least 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, and Taiwanese companies control 68% of total global chip production. These fundamentals make Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company arguably the most vulnerable firm to any disruption in Taiwanese exports. I’ve covered the market’s broader setup in other posts, so I’ll keep the technical analysis here brief. On the weekly chart (right), NYSE:TSM ’s price rose from October 2022 to January 2025 in five distinct waves. That uptrend has now been broken, and the price appears to be in the right shoulder of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. While the downside potential is open-ended, we can estimate a target using technicals. I expect the price to slice through the entirety of Wave (3) and find support in the blue-box, which aligns with the volume profile and 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracements. A break below the weekly 200MA would be a very bearish sign. For now, I’ve set my target for NYSE:TSM at $90. Zooming in, the daily chart (right) shows numerous gaps and doji candles. The high-volume days were dominated by selling. On the 100R chart (left), including after-hours trading, the Fisher Transform oscillator shows bearish divergence. Although Friday closed flat (0.00%), the stock dropped nearly 2% after hours. I expect a move back to VWAP, especially if the broader market trends lower this week. To gauge how TSMC stacks up against the broader industry, let’s look at some peers. On the semiconductor index NASDAQ:SOX , there are two key gaps worth watching—similar to what we see in other indexes. The price is currently at the 0.618 retracement of Wave (A) and briefly peaked above the 200MA. I expect it to move lower from here, likely filling those gaps and setting new lows. For NASDAQ:NVDA , I’m seeing a Head & Shoulders pattern forming, with the price currently in Wave (B). Several downside price gaps exist, and more notably, there’s a volume gap between $95 and $102. On the 500R chart (left), Nvidia is clearly overbought and facing resistance at the upper VWAP band. A move to the 1.618 extension would be extreme—but there’s an order block around that level, along with a gap down near $31, visible on the daily chart (right). Such a steep drop would require a major catalyst. While it’s unclear how reliant NASDAQ:NVDA is on Taiwan, it’s reasonable to assume the leading AI chipmaker depends on a supply chain anchored by the company producing 90% of the world’s advanced chips. NASDAQ:AMD , another company heavily reliant on TSMC’s fabs, shows a very bearish setup on the weekly chart (right) when using a logarithmic scale. However, price action from the past year on the 500R chart (left) suggests it could move higher if basic Elliott Wave principles hold. AMD’s beta is 2.14 versus TSM’s 1.68, indicating lower correlation with the broader market. It may therefore be less compatible with wave theory, but it's still an essential ticker to monitor, especially as it diverges from NASDAQ:SOX and peers. To conclude, considering the current overbought level of NYSE:TSM , coupled with the broader market pivoting back to a bearish trend, and its unique position at the center of a geopolitical and trade crisis, I think shorting TSMC provides a low risk/high reward setup with a target of $90. All of this to say, I am not a coldhearted opportunist, and I hope Taiwan can remain a free, democratic, country that is able to withstand China’s grey-zone tactics. Unfortunately, we should be prepared for Xi to use this opportunity to find out just how committed to Taiwan the Trump administration is, and as we saw during the COVID shutdown and subsequent supply shortages, microprocessors are some of the most essential products in the world that just so happen to be produced in the most vulnerable country in Asia. I suspect that there is trouble afoot. Thank you for reading and let me know what you think.
NYSE:TSMShort
by ap769
ETHBTCFrom the general view of the chart, we see that there has been a corrective rise in the Fibo ratio, which is a natural percentage for correction, and then a re-fall to a new bottom, unless the top of the area shown above is broken, in which case this analysis will fail. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
Short
by KhaldHegazy
EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal🌀 EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal 🚨 (Elliott Wave + AO Divergence + Fib Confluence) 📆 Date: May 19, 2025 📊 Pair: EUR/JPY ⏱️ Timeframe: 1H 🔍 Tools: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Extension, Awesome Oscillator (AO) 🧠 Technical Breakdown We are currently tracking a textbook Elliott Wave impulsive decline, with price forming a clean 5-wave structure to the downside. The pair now seems to be completing Wave (5) — and several strong signals suggest that a bullish reversal might be imminent. 🔢 Elliott Wave Count ✅ Wave (1) to (4) are already completed. 🔻 Wave (5) has broken below the 2.618 fib extension — which confirms an extended fifth wave. 📉 Current downside target zone lies between the 4.236 – 4.786 extensions: 4.236: ~161.796 4.786: ~161.275 This blue box zone (161.80 – 161.27) is now a high-probability completion area for Wave (5). 📈 Awesome Oscillator (AO) – Bullish Divergence Detected AO shows a clear bullish divergence between Waves (3) and (5). Momentum is fading on the bearish side while price makes a new low — classic signal of potential trend reversal. 🎯 Trade Plan: Wait for Confirmation We’re not jumping in yet — but we’re close. ✅ What to Watch For: Let price reach the 4.236–4.786 fib zone (at minimum 161.796). Wait for a Break of Structure (BoS) — a clear break above a recent lower high (likely Wave 4). On the retest or pullback, look for long entry setups such as: Bullish engulfing candles Pin bar rejection MACD/AO flip Trendline breakout retest 🎯 Targets TP1: 162.80 – 163.50 (previous Wave 4 zone) TP2: 50% – 61.8% retracement of Wave (5) TP3: 164.40 – 165.20 (supply zone and structure confluence) 🛑 Stop Loss Idea Place SL below the 4.786 extension (~161.27) or beneath the new low formed, depending on your entry type (aggressive vs conservative). ⚡ Summary This setup brings multiple confluences together: ✅ Elliott Wave (5-wave completion) ✅ Fibonacci extension target zone ✅ AO bullish divergence ✅ Waiting for structure break for smart entry 💬 Let’s Talk Are you watching this setup too? Drop a 👍 or your analysis below — let’s grow together! ✅ Follow me for more clean setups using Elliott Wave, Divergence, and Price Action. 🔔 Hit the alert — EURJPY is cooking something! #EURJPY #ElliottWave #Forex #AO #BullishDivergence #FibExtension #PriceAction #WaveAnalysis #TradingSetup #ForexSignals
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
Next step for ETHThere is a ending diagonal formed from five overlapping waves and now it is preparing to break the bottom of the first wave and then decline again. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
Short
by KhaldHegazy
AMDWell, price made it into the box as I had forecasted. Is the pattern done for now to the upside? We cannot say yet, but if it does move higher, we should be looking to the 1.618 @ $126.16 for a reaction. I think another high to the 1.618 would fit great into the pattern after some slight consolidation to lower MACD. If we can do that before making another high, we would be carving out some neg div to help push price down for minor B. Once we do in fact have a top in place for minor A, I will draw some fibs to help track the move lower. As of now, I am seeing the $85-$92 area for B to drop to. Eventually, I see this pattern up in the $150-$180 range for the (B) wave completion. It will be some time before (B) completes though. (A) took 13 months to complete. If (B) follows suit that means it won't be done until around April-May 2026. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AMD
by TSuth
6
DOGE → Retest of the panic zone. One step away from a downtrendBINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P is facing selling pressure. After distribution (pump), the price enters a correction phase (dump) and storms the panic zone, a breakout of which could intensify an uncontrolled decline. DOGEUSDT squandered all the potential accumulated in late April and early May. The distribution ended in the 0.2600 zone, after which the coin entered a correction phase. At the moment, the coin is testing the panic zone of 0.21400 All attention is on the base of the triangle at 0.21400. This is the panic zone. When the support breaks, buyers will be liquidated, and sellers may increase sales, which could trigger a bearish momentum. Resistance levels: 0.222, 0.2307 Support levels: 0.2145, 0.2135 The main idea is a continuation of the decline. The trigger is a breakdown of support at 0.2135 and consolidation of the price below this zone, only in this case will the price continue to fall. !!! The structure will be broken if the price reverses and consolidates above 0.222 and confirms the bullish sentiment with price consolidation above 0.23, in which case we will again consider growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
24