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Elliotwaveanalysis

SUI Elliott Wave Meets Fibonacci: Wave 5 Setup ExplainedSUI has once again delivered a textbook display of wave structure, Fibonacci precision, and anchored VWAP interaction. After finishing Wave 4, price surged upward, tagging key fib levels and now consolidating at a critical decision point. The next high-probability trade opportunity is forming — and it’s one worth watching closely. 📈 Recap of the Current Move After completing Wave 4, SUI surged right into the golden pocket — the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 90-day downtrend (measured from the $5.3687 high to the $1.7174 low). That golden 0.618 sits at $3.9739, with price currently hovering just below at around $3.965. In our previous analysis, we noted SUI’s tendency to respect trend-based Fib extensions. That pattern is holding beautifully. Projecting from Wave 1 to Wave 2 of the current impulse wave, price once again nailed the 2.618 Fib extension — at exactly $4.10. That extension aligned perfectly with the 0.65 retracement of the 90-day wave at $4.0907, forming a significant resistance confluence. 2.618-1.618 fib: The result? A healthy ~7% rejection, pulling SUI back into a support zone formed by three previously broken swing highs — $3.875, $3.8121, and $3.7666 — now acting as support. 🔺 Wave 4 Structure: Triangle Formation & Key Retest Levels SUI has now been consolidating for ~1.5 days, and price structure shows a developing triangle — a classic Elliott Wave Wave 4 pattern. But while triangles often resolve higher, we can’t ignore the Fibonacci roadmap: The 1.618 trend-based Fib extension (drawn from Wave 1 → Wave 2) sits at $3.7619. This level aligns almost perfectly with the key swing high at $3.7666. In the previous Wave 3–4 sequence, price also retested the 1.618 extension — a pattern that could repeat now again. So, despite the bullish triangle breakout potential, there’s still a high likelihood that price dips slightly to retest the 1.618 Fib zone at $3.76–$3.77. 📊 Anchored VWAP Confluence: Even More Support To further strengthen this thesis, we’ve anchored VWAP from the recent swing low at $3.12. That VWAP (yellow line) now sits at $3.745 — just beneath the 1.618 Fib and in perfect confluence with the swing high cluster. This creates a tight demand pocket between $3.74 and $3.77, where four technical tools align: → 1.618 trend-based Fib extension → Anchored VWAP from $3.12 → Broken swing highs now acting as support → 0.382 Fib Retracement of Wave 3 This is where smart money looks to accumulate — not at the top of the triangle, but where liquidity gets transferred. 🧠 Outsmarting the Crowd: Trap & Trigger Many breakout traders are positioning within the triangle, with stop-losses just beneath. If price dips into the $3.74–$3.77 range, it would sweep those stops and fill orders from traders waiting patiently at this confluence. This creates a classic “switching hands” moment: breakout longs are stopped out, and Fibonacci-aligned buyers step in just as price hits the sweet spot. To be part of the 1% in trading, you need to be thinking one step ahead — not where price is now, but where it needs to go to trap the many and reward the few. 🎯 Long Trade Setup Entry Zone: $3.77 preferred Laddered from $3.76–$3.74 Stop-Loss Options: Tight: Below $3.70 (2% buffer) Loose: Below $3.52 (golden pocket of previous Wave 3) Targets: Conservative: $4.28 Primary: $4.41 Aggressive Extension: $4.5873 (0.786 retracement of full 90-day move) R:R Potential: Tight SL: ~2.5:1 Loose SL: 6:1+ 📆 Weekend Trading Note We’re currently in weekend session flow — often thinner liquidity and more prone to wicks. While the structure is strong, wait for confirmation and avoid FOMO entries at the top of the triangle. ✅ Wrapping It Up SUI remains in a clean, bullish market structure and continues to respect Fibonacci and trend-based extensions to the letter. With price above key swing highs, holding structure, and anchored VWAP adding confluence, the $3.74–$3.77 zone is setting up as a high-probability entry for the next wave. Smart money doesn’t chase — it anticipates. Be the 1% who sees beyond the triangle and understands where the real opportunity lies. Happy Trading! ___________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Long
by SiDec
27
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 3495.Colleagues, price has successfully formed an “ABC” correction and I see that the upward movement is not over. I think that wave “5” of the higher order consists of five waves and at the moment wave “1” of the lower order is formed. This means that I predict a target at the high of wave 3495. Presumably correction “2” can reach a rougher target in the area of 3240. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
4
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Forecast: Preparing for Wave 5 RallyIn the daily timeframe of EUR/USD, the third wave of the larger Elliott Wave structure appears to have been completed. Within this third wave, we can also observe that the subwave 3 of wave 3 has concluded, and currently, Wave 4 is unfolding. Wave 4 is presently developing and is likely to retrace toward the 1.10683 level or potentially form a supportive close above it. This zone corresponds to both the subwave 4 of Wave 3 and the main Wave 4 correction, which indicates a critical area of confluence and potential completion of the corrective structure. Once Wave 4 is confirmed to be complete near this region, the chart suggests that we may enter the beginning of Wave 5, providing a favorable long trade opportunity. Entry Trigger: Sustained price above 1.10719 First Target: 1.12900 Second Target: 1.13837 Stop-Loss: 1.09518 (below the corrective Wave 4 low to protect the setup)
by Money_Dictators
EURAUD ForecastMy observations on FX:EURAUD chart to take a trading position include the following: - Completion of a Gartley Harmonic Pattern - Completion of the fourth wave of an Elliott wave pack and waiting for the formation of wave 5 - Overlap of the target of the 5th Elliott wave with the target of the Gartley pattern (if the pattern works) - Positive price bounce reaction to SMA200 and an upward guard to cross SMA21 and the pivot line as an important resistance. (Pivot Point Standard) The mentioned signs for my personal trading system are a certificate to take a trade, of course, with risk management and logical budget plan ( risk no more than %1 of capitol) The goal is to execute the trading plan correctly and systematically, regardless of the outcome.
Long
by Daragolbon
Link Analysis (12H)Chainlink (LINK) Technical Outlook – Elliott Wave Perspective After applying Elliott Wave Theory, the chart appears to speak for itself — the downward corrective phase seems to have concluded. Zooming into lower timeframes, there are several bullish signs suggesting that LINK is primed for an upward move. Key Technical Reasons Supporting Upside Potential: Bullish Flag Formation: A clear flag pattern has formed in lower time frames, and LINK is currently testing its resistance level. Elliott Wave Count: Based on wave structure, Wave 3 appears to be nearing completion. Should we see a short-term pullback, it would likely be Wave 4, offering a strong buy opportunity around the support zone of the flag. Fib Confluence: The potential retracement aligns perfectly with the 50% Fibonacci level — a typical target area for Wave 4 corrections. Two Possible Scenarios: Immediate Breakout: With support from Bitcoin’s continued momentum, LINK could extend its current Wave 3 and break out from the flag without any significant pullback. Healthy Correction: Alternatively, LINK could retrace to the 50% Fib level before initiating the final leg of Wave 5 — providing a textbook buying opportunity. Target: In both scenarios, the upside target remains the same: $18.00 to $18.40 range. — Thanks for reading.
Long
by vs_sayin
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3400.Colleagues, I've redrawn the waves a bit, because it looks like the correction should be over. I believe that the upward movement will resume soon. I expect two variants of events: 1) the price will reach the support area 3162, form wave “4” and after that we will see an upward movement - this is a variant of entering a position with pending limit orders. 2) Price has already formed wave “4” and then we will see only upward movement. This is a variant of market entry. In both cases I expect the price to come to the target in the resistance area of 3400. This is a pretty strong level from which there could be a strong correction. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
28
$SPX Rejection at Resistance – Watch 5582 for the Next Major Mov📉 After tagging the 5685–5750 resistance zone, SP:SPX is flashing major downside risk. 🔍 Key Zones: ✅ Resistance tapped: 5705–5838 🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap): 5642–5582 ❗ Daily close below 5582 → Bearish WXY structure confirmed 🟥 Hard invalidation for bulls: 4835.04 💡 I’m open to a retest of the 200DMA (currently 5746), but below 5582 I wouldn’t expect a new high. This setup offers clear structure, risk-defined short entries, and a measured breakdown scenario if support fails.
SP:SPXShort
by SmartSignalss
USD/MXN Mirrors 2017 Reversal; Elliott Wave Pointing Lower Back in 2016–2017, we first saw a very sharp recovery on USD/MXN, but when Trump took office in January 2017, the market reversed strongly lower, falling all the way from 22 to 17.60, lost nearly 20% . That very similar pattern is now becoming visible again with 2024–2025 price action. Last year, after Trump won the US election, we saw significant depreciation of the Mexican peso, but since he has officially taken office in January, we’re seeing a complete reversal—just like in 2017. In fact, the Mexican peso has been gaining nicely over the past few months, likely based on speculation that Trump will find the agreement and trade deals with other countries, particularly related to tariffs. Since no one really benefits from trade wars, it’s not surprising that even Trump’s recent remarks reflect an acknowledgment of the global situation being unsustainable, especially when it comes to CHINA-US trade. With that in mind, markets in general are likely to recover, and we’re already seeing some nice rebounds. And when stocks are in recovery mode, commodity currencies—including the peso—tend to perform well. Looking at USD/MXN specifically, we’re seeing a strong reversal down from February highs, just like in 2017. The current drop hasn't even retraced 38.2% of the 2024 rally yet, which suggests more downside is likely—ideally toward the 19.00 area, maybe even 18.00 by year-end. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it's useful to zoom in on smaller time frames. The structure doesn’t look like completed impulse yet, so technically there can be more weakness coming. Resistance for wave four rally sits around the 19.77–19.84 zone, which aligns with Fibonacci projections for wave four, as well as swing lows from March and April. This area could serve as a nice resistance of the current bounce, especially if the Fed delivers any dovish remarks this week. No rate cuts are expected, but even a hint at future cuts could send the US yields lower, which would weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—meaning commodity currencies could outperform. In that case, USD/MXN could ideally fall back below 19.50. Elliott Wave analysis also helps define clear invalidation levels, very important when it comes to potential trade setups. In this scenario, 20.16 is a key level to watch. A break above it would overlap with the start of the current move and signal that the bears are finished for now, thus I would need to adjust the view accordingly. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either. Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet. They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now. Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence. So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high. If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.204.Colleagues, I believe that the price will continue its downward movement. At the moment we are observing a combined correction. I expect the completion of wave “Y”. Even if it is already completed, the price is still waiting for a downward correction to the support area of 55.204. Therefore, I think that 55.204 is the 1st minimum target. There are two possible ways to enter the position: 1) Market entry 2) Pending Limit orders. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
22
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.15878.Colleagues, I believe .that the five-wave movement is not over yet and another wave of upward movement is waiting for us. I believe that wave “4” has almost completed the correction or has already completed it. In any case, I consider the main target to be the resistance area at 1.15878, which is the minimum target and the top of wave “3”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
27
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 98,000.Dear colleagues, in this forecast I will not make too forward-looking plans. I believe that the upward movement is not over yet, because the wave “C” is not yet completed and consists of five waves. I think that we should expect to reach the resistance area of 98,000. A small correction to the support area of 90,000 is possible. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
25
USD/JPY Eyes Breakout After Healthy Wave 4 CorrectionThe USD/JPY pair is currently unfolding a clean impulsive 5-wave structure to the upside. The price action has already completed Waves 1, 2, and 3, and has entered a probable Wave 4 correction. Wave 3 appears extended and tapped into a key Fair Value Gap (FVG), which acted as resistance. Wave 4 is likely to develop as a shallow retracement, possibly forming a bull flag or expanded flat before launching into Wave 5. The ascending channel supports the bullish structure with both Wave 2 and Wave 4 respecting lower bounds. Targets: 144.750 - 144.351 Stoploss: 146.268
by Money_Dictators
1