🌊 Elliot Wave Cheatsheet📍 What Is Elliott Wave Theory?
In technical analysis, the Elliott Wave theory is the analysis of long-term trends in price patterns and how they correspond with investor psychology. These price patterns, referred to as ‘waves’, are built on specific rules that were developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. Specifically, they were designed to identify and predict wave patterns within stock markets. Importantly these patterns are not intended to be certain, but instead provide probable outcomes for future price movements.
📍 How Do Elliott Waves Work?
Within Elliott Wave theory, there are different forms of waves, or price formations, from which investors can glean insight. Impulse waves, for example, include both an upward or downward trend that carries five sub-waves that may last hours or even decades. They possess three rules: the second wave cannot retrace more than 100% of the first wave; the third wave cannot be shorter than wave one, three, and five; wave four cannot surpass the third wave ever. Along with impulse waves, there are corrective waves, which fall in patterns of three.
📍 Impulse Wave
The impulse wave in Elliott Wave Theory is the wave that pushes the prices in the same direction as the trend at one larger degree. It’s the action wave.
While the corrective wave is the reaction to the first wave. Therefore, the corrective wave moves in the opposite direction of the main trend.
The impulse wave is composed of 5 waves according to certain conditions & rules. Impulse waves are always composed of five waves, labeled 1,2,3,4,5. Waves 1,3 & 5 are in the direction of the main trend. Whereas, waves 2 & 4 are in the opposite direction
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BITCOIN UPDATE ON THE 15MINS CHART.Here is an update on the 15mins chart.
3waves down from 11.2k region to 10.3k , and wave 4 is forming an expanding triangle.
Expanding triangles are five-wave triangles.
Triangles are pattern that appears usually in the middle and at the ending stages of the trend, they are usually seen in wave 4 in a motive phase and waves B & X in a corrective phase. I think I should make an educational post on triangles later.
From the chart we can see the last leg of the triangle (wave E) forming
If you're yet to enter the short position, wait for the triangle completion. I think that should be around 10.6k region or slightly higher.
From there, we can re enter a short position and ride wave 5 to the downside.
Once the correction is over, I'll post an update on the potential ending point for wave 5..
Don't forget to hit the like button if you enjoyed this short update. follow me to get more hands-on update. Share and drop your comments below if you want me to make an educational post on triangles.
Your viewpoint and questions are also welcome in the comment section.
Thanks you.
See you soon traders. Namaste
USDCHF UPDATE: Price Set to Resume The DowntrendI pointed out a key reversal zone in the USDCHF's analysis I published on Feb 17. Price reached the area and find sellers.
With the completion of the correction, a 5-3 wave cycle is considered completed. The trend is expected to resume in the direction of the impulse pattern which is bearish in the USDCHF's case.
The target below 16th January low is plausible in the months ahead.
Verdict:
I'm already short and I will be looking to sell on Lower Highs till we reach the blue zone on the chart.
CHFJPY Elliot Wave Trade Idea In the CHFJPY chart above, price is making a bearish (a)-(b)-(c) corrective pattern after the completion of a bullish five-wave impulse.
The corrective pattern will most likely unfold as a zigzag based on the current structure of the decline. I'm expecting a sell-off in wave v to complete five-wave impulse in (a), followed by a corrective pattern in (b), then I will look to go short wave (c).
I'm anticipating wave (a) to terminate at the ascending trendline support, so I will take a short-term sell entry at the market open.
Here is my previous analysis on CHFJPY:
Silver Supernova Elliot Wave SetupHere Silver analysis again. This is my most important watchlist for next week. I got stopped out last week but had a new entry on Friday, and I will be looking to add more long position this week if I get the correction.
Price seems to have resume wave (iii) after a simple zigzag corrective structure in wave (ii) that terminated at a confluence level that consists of 61.8% Fib, support zone, and wave c of (ii) equal wave "a" at that same level.
If we get a move lower in wave ii before the breakout of the Flag structure; it will provide a good risk-reward entry point.
Here is my longterm Silver analysis and how I arrived at this current setup:
What's your view on Silver?
EURUSD: Watch Price Action For LongHi Traders,
We've seen EURUSD breakout of the Ending Diagonal with a bullish impulse wave. An impulsive breakout is quite significant because it simply means that the diagonal pattern is complete and that the market is ready for long positions. We have a gartley pattern which suggests a long entry if price reaches the 1.0974 region.
In summary, I'm bullish on EURUSD unless the market proves otherwise.
Regards,
Wave Theorist.
USDCAD: Retest of Support May Indicate Further RiseHi Traders,
On November 28th, price was showing a contracting triangle and making the case for a long setup. The triangle has now been invalidated and price is forming a regular flat. We may still have a long setup if price retests support at 1.3255, thereby completing the regular flat.
I have indicated clear buy and sell zones.
All the best,
Wave Theorist
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USDJPY: Possibility of 5 swing wave C?There are two possible outcomes: (1) Price will sell into the blue box from current levels and continue correcting between 107.00 - 109.00 or (2), we may be in the beginning of a 5 swing wave C. The possibility of sustained down side is supported by the fact that price is currently at a critical retracement (0.5 - 0.618) of my wave A. If price pushes through the 1.618 (at 107.184), we may just see price continuing with the downside.
USDCHF: Wave alternation key in understanding current correctionIn wave analysis, the guideline of alternation warns to always expect a difference in the next expression of a similar wave. Although alternation does not say precisely what is going to happen, it gives valuable notice of what not to expect and is therefore useful to keep in mind when assessing future probabilities. So we can expect anyone on the corrections that Elliot identified. Even a triangle is possible. I would advise not taking a long position until price reaches an area suitable enough to start selling.
XAUUSD: Potential expanding/running flat suggests long entryIn the past couple of sessions, price dipped from $1514 to $1450 and is now suggesting either a regular or expanding flat (this is confirmed by price pushing below the previous low). At current levels, price is now forming an ending diagonal sequence this usually indicates reversal. We also have divergence on the RSI to support the ending diagonal reversal. However, a long entry has not yet been confirmed. It is therefore important to wait for confirmation.
USDCAD: Long Term Elliot Wave ForecastThe overall structure I'm looking at sees price forming a WXY zigzag. After the current bullish momentum on the lower time frames, I'm expecting price to resume it's bearish trend all the way to the 1.8000 region to complete wave X on the micro degree. Following the completion of wave X, I'm expecting further upside momentum towards wave Y. We'll then have a complete zigzag pattern on the weekly chart.
USDCHF: Short trade almost readyPrice has formed a zigzag structure from the drop on October 15th, 2019. At current levels, price has retraced into the golden zone (50.00 - 61.80), an area whereby we may reasonably expect some reversal and trend continuation. However I'm quite skeptical about the current sell because price may just correct in a double structure before we see the imminent drop . That being said, we have a good setup coming up. Wait for clear confirmation before looking for any entries.
Bulls are waking up on GOLD. Simple triangle correction.Gold is currently on triangle correction that is preparing for upside strong trend. As elliot wave theory it should be ending the E wave of triangle, and next big move will come. B wave is finished on exactly 61.8% of A wave and D wave is also retraced exactly 61.8% of C wave. Remember that it is hard to anticipate where would E wave ends, also it is long-term holding trade idea.
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XRPUSD - Completing its 3 SubwaveHey guys,
So, XRPUSD had a dreadful dreadful retracement down from its high of over $3. We seem to have made a solid bottom though and are moving smoothley!!
Our Wave 1 broke up nicely with a 22% gain in price, and then we had a fairly deep correction on Wave 2 going even lower than the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement . I count a full 5 Waves up to complete our wave 3 and it hits the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension exactly !
We have been consolidating in this zone, and what I previously might have called as an ABC Correction has now formed what looks like a Symmetrical Triangle ABCDE Corrective Pattern. This retraced past the 0.236 almost hitting the 0.382 which is in line with the Alternation of Wave degree between Waves 2 and 4 since Wave 2 was such a deep correction it makes perfect sense for Wave 4 to be shallower. And also since Wave 2 was a simple Corrective Pattern, Wave 4 being a Complex Corrective Pattern also follows Elliot Wave Guidlines very nicely!!
We have finished the correctional pattern and have already completed Subwaves 1-3 of our wave 5.
Our Wave 2 corrected to the 0.618 fibb and landed in the Golden Pocket, so by the rule of Alternation Subwave 4 should have a shallower correction. The 0.236 to 0.5 fibb range, with 0.5 being on the lower end of the spectrum. It should retrace between $0.71 and $0.70.
My target for Wave 5 is 3.618 Fibonacci Extension around $0.81, and then afterwards we should see a retracement to around the 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.63. This is because the ABC retracement for the entire wave structure usually lands within the Wave 4 range of the preceding wave structure!
I've posted Fibonacci extensions and retracments so you can extrapolate your own data from my points and to visually see what I'm talking about.
I hope the chart isn't too cluttered and that you enjoyed my analysis. Please always remember that targets are not set in stone and to always practice proper risk management! Happy trading!
Previous Chart:
NZD/CAD - Downside Correction LikelyHi traders, just posting a quick analysis whilst I am passing through.
Here we have NZD/CAD on the 2H chart.
Price recently had a strong up move, stalling at a historical resistance zone. From here there has been multiple reversal candles at the zone and I am now expecting a down move to begin to the downside.
I am expecting a correction to either the horizontal support zone at 0.8810, or the sideways channel support at 0.8790 level, before there is any other up move.
This correction is definitely worth a trade as the correction is likely to be steep and the Risk to Reward is very easy find. In all trading scenarios I tested for this pair trade, I got at least 1:2.5 Risk To Reward.
Bare in mind that price might have a minor retest to the above resistance zone at 0.8905 before the down move begins.
I will be updating this analysis as it progresses.