Nas100 ... An elliptical way of looking at itI thought it might be useful be provide my elliptical analysis of the NAS100 for some direction and comment.
My ellipse has modelled this quite well with several good touch points. (green dots)
Additionally I have added a Fibonacci Fan using the blue dots as the range points and providing an extension in the future.
(TradingView has yet to provide Fibonacci fans and sadly lacking in precision geometric analysis IMHO)
I ask that you provide any comments, personal insights and suggestions if you use this methodology in your trading.
Thanks for reading and I will follow up as needed.
(Note: This is log scale so you may have to rescale the Y-axis by dragging it up or down to align the red line with the blue dots... a problem with log scale and TV.)
S.
Ellipse
Ellipse Pattern on SPX?Every now and then I like to back up and look at the big picture for unusual patterns
I'm seeing lower highs and higher lows, consolidating to a point....much like an ellipse
I'm thinking it represents the battle between the bears and bulls / shorts vs longs
The only other time I have seen this pattern is from Sept 2007 to Sept 2008
It ended in a market crash after the collapse of Lehman Brothers
btc 1d elliptical movemanual attempt at ellipse theory for market geometry - credits to the work of B,F. C
Geometry: 1x8-8x1 EllipsesHey! Hope you are well!
In this chart is shown the various 1x8-8x1 ellipses.
The overlay on the four minute chart is shown here!
Here is the beginning.
There are successive boxes made on the chart. The boxes are the basis of the 1x1, 1x2, and all.
This next picture is the initial 1x1 ellipse - or circle if you will.
If that is overly populated, here is the same without the successive rings.
The ellipse is not inside of the rectangle because the ellipse is circling the rectangle versus squaring the circle; however, do note that whether squaring the circle or circling the square, the eccentricity is the same; only the proportion - the size - of the ellipse changes.
Next is the 1x2 and 2x1.
Now, all of the successive angles will be shown simultaneously.
Enjoy! Be well!
As an added bonus, here is what the chart looks like when the successive rings are added.
Suggested Reading:
Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer
Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course
Scott M. Carney - The Harmonic Trader, Harmonic Trading Volume I, Harmonic Trading Volume II, Harmonic Trading Volume III
H.M. Gartley - Profits in the Stock Market
Bill Williams - Trading Chaos, New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 2nd Edition
J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach
Fabio Oreste - Quantum Trading
Michael Jardine - New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading
The Wave Principle, Nature's Law
Ralph Nelson Elliot
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
John J. Murphy
A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis
Anna Coulling
Mastering The Elliot Wave
Glenn Neely
Geometry: Adjusted Axis Square with Elliptical Figure Fitting InHello! Hope you are well!
This figure is generated from the adjusted axis of price and the angulation of that adjusted axis. This then forms into a box, and the ellipse is fitted to the box.
The native resolution is five minutes! Enjoy!
Suggested Reading:
Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer
Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course
Scott M. Carney - The Harmonic Trader, Harmonic Trading Volume I, Harmonic Trading Volume II, Harmonic Trading Volume III
H.M. Gartley - Profits in the Stock Market
Bill Wiliams - Trading Chaos, New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 2nd Edition
J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach
Fabio Dreste - Quantum Trading
Michael Jardine - New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading
The Wave Principle, Nature's Law
Ralph Nelson Elliot
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
John J. Murphy
A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis
Anna Coulling
Mastering The Elliot Wave
Glenn Neely
Geometry: Ellipses on an Adjusted AxisHey! Hope you are doing well!
In both charts the native resolution is five minutes.
In this example, the ellipse is precisely derived from the angulation of the move.
In this example, the ellipse is derived through various harmonics.
Enjoy! And be well!
Suggested Reading:
Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer
Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course
Scott M. Carney - The Harmonic Trader, Harmonic Trading Volume I, Harmonic Trading Volume II, Harmonic Trading Volume III
H.M. Gartley - Profits in the Stock Market
Bill Wiliams - Trading Chaos, New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 2nd Edition
J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach
Fabio Dreste - Quantum Trading
Michael Jardine - New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading
The Wave Principle, Nature's Law
Ralph Nelson Elliot
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
John J. Murphy
A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis
Anna Coulling
Mastering The Elliot Wave
Glenn Neely
Geometry: Ellipse and Adjusted AxisHey! Hope you are well!
Here is an adjusted axis on the five minute chart; the native chart I was using is five minute; here is the picture of what it looked like.
The varying eccentricity of the ellipse comes from the varying circular levels such as .25, .5, .75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2
Imagine the circle as a 1x1 ellipse; now imagine the next ellipse as a 1x1.25; imagine the next one as a 1x1.5; go all through the varying harmonics of 1xn.
Enjoy!
Suggested Reading:
Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer
Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course
Scott M. Carney - The Harmonic Trader, Harmonic Trading Volume I, Harmonic Trading Volume II, Harmonic Trading Volume III
H.M. Gartley - Profits in the Stock Market
Bill Wiliams - Trading Chaos, New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 2nd Edition
J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach
Fabio Dreste - Quantum Trading
Michael Jardine - New Frontiers in Fibonacci Trading
The Wave Principle, Nature's Law
Ralph Nelson Elliot
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
John J. Murphy
Doge prepares to flyAfter testing the broken resistance ,the coin is ready to move towards new targets.the first target is about 45 cents , and if the price groeth rate is higher,the second target will not be out of reach.
this chart is for educational purposes only and should not be traded on.
GOLDEN YEAR IS COMINGGold is making cup with handle, and the pattern has started from 2020. It took nearly 300 days for reaching it's middle point, as you can see from the chart. If the theory is right, then we could see the gold spots to reach it's all-time-high again in 200-220 days, as we have passed 79 days already from the middle point.
BTC bounce?Although it didn’t take the exact path drawn, the red line has won out. The question now is whether the green ellipse boundary holds, and BTC starts riding back up to the 55K area, or it breaks below, in which case it will start using the green ellipse as resistance instead of support.
DOGE decision timeDOGE is just barely holding to the inside of the upward trending green ellipse. But it has the yellow and blue ellipses it has also been bouncing off of. It remains to be see if it can break up through both of those ellipses to continue up unabated (green arrow), or get caught up and eventually continue (orange arrow) up or down from there, or get completely rejected and dump (red arrow). I think the next 3-6 hours should prove interesting either way.
DOGE to $1?Impossible to know with this meme coin what it will do, but if it stays inside the green ellipse, $1 is just barely in sight. If it breaks below, then look out below, and call the DOGE catcher. :)
ALGO .00003 by May 12?It will certainly depend a lot on what BTC itself does, but the path does seem clear to .00003, which at current BTC, is ~$1.70 USD. There is some resistance I’m seeing on the ALGOUSD chart it would have to clear.
ADA breakout confirmedADA has broken out of the ping-pong between the red and green ellipses drawn on the chart. I’ll be looking to see if there is a re-test in the upcoming days. Of course it could start bouncing down the outside of the green ellipse, using it as support, but that’s still better than using it as resistance.
ADA going to break out?I’m going to look for a confirmation close above the green ellipse, and possibly a retest to make the judgment, but it does look like a possibility that ADA is going to break free of the confines of these 2 ellipses it’s been in.
NQ Oversold near-term; Bearish Pattern EmergingThe Ellipse, or Lens, is either a consolidation pattern or topping formation. Gap we saw Thursday 29 Apr likely an Exhaustion gap.
Higher prices seem unlikely given weakness overall but MFI oversold, RSI resting at support level; a brief bounce seems likely.
Longer-term, expect correction to support at former price resistance.
Not investing advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
ALGO liftoff underwayALGO finally appears to be clear of most of the resistance ellipses, and should be more free to fly. Of course, not much support on the downside for quite a ways, either. In any event, I’m expecting some more dramatic moves in the coming days.
ADA - can it finally break loillilkl llp lnlllllADA has been trading between the top of the red ellipse (support) and top of the green ellipse (resistance) since the beginning of February. If it continues, it could ride quite a ways down. Looking for it to break out of green ellipse or into the red ellipse but will be swing trading it at the two boundaries until then.
ALGO to $1.05 or $1.03, the back up?ALGO has been following the bottom of the yellow ellipse down as BTC continues to drop. If that ellipse holds, it could ride back up after touching $1.05 or even $1.03. However, if it breaks below that ellipse, it’s unclear to me how far it falls from there.
Trade carefully.
ALGO found resistance at $1.20. Ready to take off?Even with the pummeling BTC gave ALGO yesterday and today, after it paused at each ellipse boundary and ultimately crashed through, it has held the bottom of that red ellipse. I had put a tentative buy target of $1.1950, just above the lower boundary of the red ellipse, in case it fell that far. As this recent dip was underway, and it started falling towards that lower boundary, I did put in a limit order at $1.20 that hit. I should have trusted my $1.195, as that would have hit as well.
I used the same strategy for BTC using an ellipse I had identified for the BTC-USD pair, and filled a limit order @ $53,400.
After having spent a little time with this ellipse technique, I will say that it has give me a bit more confidence that I have some idea where price might be headed in the near future, and also during big-ish drops, where the potential resistance levels are, with what seems to me to be more precision than just trend lines. YMMV.
Most people who do TA would probably have recommended that I wait for ALGO to confirm the test of resistance, and wait for confirmation of reversal before buying. I’m still a bit impulsive, so I made the assumption of a bounce and acted accordingly. There is nothing to say that we won’t see another big drop below the resistance of the ellipses I’ve drawn, and if that happens, the fall could be quite far, so I took a bit of a risk there. But my hope is that ALGO finds its way above the bottom of that green ellipse I’ve drawn, as it would provide a nice run back up to/past ATH. Otherwise, we may find it using that ellipse as resistance.
So, in sum, I think ellipses have proven so far to me to be a useful way to look at a coin’s chart, but they definitely need to be used alongside all of the other traditional TA tools to make informed decisions.
*not financial advice
BTC has found some temporary supportBTC is still tapping on the edge of the blue ellipse. Depending on how it exits that ellipse, I can see either the yellow or orange paths as possible, bringing us back up to the $60-62K range. If it breaks down to the bottom of the blue sphere, or exits somewhere in the middle right, then the red path may be in play.
Band had a small BTC set backLooks like the green ellipse that was providing great support, is now acting as resistance. Still seems to be headed in a positive direction regardless.
ETH looking like it wants to break out againSeems to be establishing resistance on that green ellipse, and I assume it’ll attempt another break, but perhaps not until BTC settles...
