NQ Oversold near-term; Bearish Pattern EmergingThe Ellipse, or Lens, is either a consolidation pattern or topping formation. Gap we saw Thursday 29 Apr likely an Exhaustion gap.
Higher prices seem unlikely given weakness overall but MFI oversold, RSI resting at support level; a brief bounce seems likely.
Longer-term, expect correction to support at former price resistance.
Not investing advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
Ellipticalpatterns
ALGO to $1.05 or $1.03, the back up?ALGO has been following the bottom of the yellow ellipse down as BTC continues to drop. If that ellipse holds, it could ride back up after touching $1.05 or even $1.03. However, if it breaks below that ellipse, it’s unclear to me how far it falls from there.
Trade carefully.
ALGO takeoff has been delayedBTC tanking has resulted in ALGO trading in between two ellipses - one acting as support, and the other as resistance. Hopefully it holds here, or we could see a more major correction down to the $1.09 area. Unless BTC has a major rally to lift ALGO back up, it looks as though that major green ellipse will be acting as resistance rather than support.
ALGO found resistance at $1.20. Ready to take off?Even with the pummeling BTC gave ALGO yesterday and today, after it paused at each ellipse boundary and ultimately crashed through, it has held the bottom of that red ellipse. I had put a tentative buy target of $1.1950, just above the lower boundary of the red ellipse, in case it fell that far. As this recent dip was underway, and it started falling towards that lower boundary, I did put in a limit order at $1.20 that hit. I should have trusted my $1.195, as that would have hit as well.
I used the same strategy for BTC using an ellipse I had identified for the BTC-USD pair, and filled a limit order @ $53,400.
After having spent a little time with this ellipse technique, I will say that it has give me a bit more confidence that I have some idea where price might be headed in the near future, and also during big-ish drops, where the potential resistance levels are, with what seems to me to be more precision than just trend lines. YMMV.
Most people who do TA would probably have recommended that I wait for ALGO to confirm the test of resistance, and wait for confirmation of reversal before buying. I’m still a bit impulsive, so I made the assumption of a bounce and acted accordingly. There is nothing to say that we won’t see another big drop below the resistance of the ellipses I’ve drawn, and if that happens, the fall could be quite far, so I took a bit of a risk there. But my hope is that ALGO finds its way above the bottom of that green ellipse I’ve drawn, as it would provide a nice run back up to/past ATH. Otherwise, we may find it using that ellipse as resistance.
So, in sum, I think ellipses have proven so far to me to be a useful way to look at a coin’s chart, but they definitely need to be used alongside all of the other traditional TA tools to make informed decisions.
*not financial advice
BTC has found some temporary supportBTC is still tapping on the edge of the blue ellipse. Depending on how it exits that ellipse, I can see either the yellow or orange paths as possible, bringing us back up to the $60-62K range. If it breaks down to the bottom of the blue sphere, or exits somewhere in the middle right, then the red path may be in play.
Where does BTC go next?After last night’s dump, it seems all scenarios are on the table. It seems to have fought back to just above that green ellipse. Yellow and orange trajectories seem more possible if we get a candle or two closing above the green ellipse. Otherwise, red and blue look more likely IMO.
Would love to here comments on where you think it goes next, and why.
ALGO taking offALGO had pushed up into the larger ellipse shown. If the current daily candle closes above that lower boundary, I expect either a parabolic run, or a bounce up the bigger ellipse. Could also see it drop under the bigger ellipse and bounce between it’s lower border and the ellipse drawn below it.
ALGO getting ready for takeoff?I’m long term HODL on AlGO, so will probably pick ip some more if/when it visits the green dash. If it hits the yellow price points, I’ll probably also pick up some more, but will be watching the price action to see if it makes more sense to wait for a bigger dip. For instance, if it starts headed to the red dashed level down the inside of one of the smaller ellipses, it might not be quite ready to blast off up the bigger green slope.
Anyone else out there use ellipses for analysis? Still discovering the effectiveness and drawbacks myself, but still finding it fascinating. It’s been helping me figure our good TP and buy levels, but not perfectly, and it doesn’t help with knowing if/when a high volume event will cause an abrupt break out of an ellipse to the up/downside. Still looking to other indicators for that.