AMZN - BullishAMZN recently completed a bearish Wave 5 impulse move. Now that Wave 5 is complete, I expect AMZN to retrace back to the Wave 4 high at 1840, 120 points from current levels.
ELLITOWAVEANALYSIS
NZD/USD Trade setup. Price has been on a two month long bearish run. A Consolidation can be spotted between the 9th of January all through to the 24th of January. This consolidation can be considered as the first LH of the spotted trend. Price broke out of the 0.65846 support level, this was a confirmation signal that the consolidation is over and a bearish price continuation would follow suit.
Price has reached the 0.63925 support level and a change in direction is expected for after every rally, price needs to retrace.
The retracement is what we'll be taking advantage of as price completes the second LH. The retracement may be identified as either a consolidation or minor trend which can be viewed properly on the lower timeframe such as the 15 min.
Share your thoughts with me regarding this trade setup. OANDA:NZDUSD FX:NZDUSD
TWTR - Impulse DownTWTR is in a Wave 4 of 5 impulse move down. With Earnings in the horizon, price looks to move lower to 24-26 by mid February
BTC in a new impulse waveBTC has started again a new impulse wave, this time could reach a new ATH of this year, probably the target will be around 9400 - 9500 then after will be there an ABC correction
GBPJPY Potnetial sells of corrective waveLooking to sell the breakout of flag for continuation to downside. if 139 support is broken, we expect more downside.
GOLD still bullish by my countGOLD had an impressive consolidation day today. Even though technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands) show that its overbought, it didn't give much on the downside and is now showing strength as the session closes.
I'm still anticipating an attack on the highs in the first few days of next week... (green channel indicates projected route).
NOT anticipating that gold breaks through, however.
I am open to changing my mind if the technical indicators change, of course.
Have a great weekend!
Beautiful Elliott Wave - BTCUSD Concept - LONG -> SHORTThis is a great concept I truly do believe in. Although this is a bit of a mid-term analysis, I think this will be great to trade with. If your not in a long right now, don't think you should get in at all because I think we will have a small retracement on the wave up here.
Short will be a great one to play with for sure! Enjoy!
Week 35/52. Trade #5. USDCHF expanding or running flatThis correction looks to build out further, but before it can do that this flat correction as I see it needs to complete. High level of interaction at this level, and some lower time frame transition already. R/R is 4:1 so solid opportunity.
EURAUD - Sells in placeCheck the chart for the long term target. Should hopefully see some solid movement with this pair come London. EURNZD won't be too far behind.
BSV - HOW WE GET TO TARGET 2!Hey Everyone,
BSV has been running at snails pace over the last few days while BTC have been having a small wave party... where we all got an invite.
It was fun as now we can buy more BSV as it is just about to take off.
So breaking down the chart, BSV moved in triangle patterns, each and every chart develops it's own pattern and forms a pattern memory from the traders that buy and sell. So how BSV is tending to move, is triangle up, quick move up, triangle break down, form a flag, then we should get another move higher.
Tradition charting says the length of the flag pole from the first move will form the basis of the target for the next move. Ironically that takes us to target 2 from my previous BSV Chart.
BSV is a scalpers dream, it has moved all week in $10 movements allowing book end sells and buys!
REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION
(minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<3 Lisa
DISCLAIMER:
The Legal stuff - I'm not financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons...
PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
Could AUDUSD offer significant downside potential?Hi Traders,
The AUDUSD seems to be completing a large three-wave ABC zigzag pattern labeled blue.
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This pair reversed from a resistance level and broke out of ascending trendline that lined up with a key support level labeled wave (i).
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Currently, the price has broken out of sub-wave (ii) corrective chart pattern (dotted channel) after retesting the swing level with a big outside candle on the daily chart.
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Considering that the price has confirmed the bearish bias, this pair has the potential to move down towards between FE 1 and 1.618 ratio to completed sub-wave (iii) as planned on the chart.
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What's your thought about AUDUSD? Let me know in the comment.
SLV Breakout? or Fakeout?Fast move to top of current range. Stochastics turning up and the parabolic indicator implies the start of a move higher. For Elliott Wave,, could be a wave 5 of 3 of 1. Any EW experts here? If follow through on heavy volume comes in, some gaps above 15 and 16 need to be filled
Bitcoin Macro AnalysisHere's another macro look at Bitcoin.
- We have dropped to the 4200 level on Coinbase as predicted in one of the scenarios of the previous macro analysis.
- We also had a spike fakeout upwards on CME expiration day due to Tether FUD - described as a possible violent move in the previous analysis.
A Recap of key recent events:
- Tether FUD (dropped to 0.85$) caused a major fakeout spike on Bitcoin
- The 6K Bitcoin Wall has fallen as expected. RIP King Leonidas and the 300 brave whales that fought alongside him, all presumed dead heroes. Praise the King!
www.youtube.com
- BAKKT launch is moved from Dec 12 to Jan 24 2019
- SEC deadline for VanEck ETF decision is now Dec 29 but will likely be postponed till Feb 2019
- BCH fork and civil war of the ABC and SV chains have caused a major Bitcoin drop
- World's First ETF (ETP, physically backed by BTC) is approved: Bitcoin ETF $HODL, will begin trading on Switzerland’s Six Swiss Exchange beginning next week
the index includes: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC and BCH and is managed by VanEck subsidiary
On a chart there are:
- 3 EW counts: red, green, blue, and a 4th orange subwave count. Black subwave count is common for all.
- 3 down channels: yellow, green and blue
- 3 pitchforks: green, blue and orange
- 3 major support/demand zones: pink, green and blue
Bitcoin was moving sideways on top of a major pink support zone and has dropped because of a confluence:
- ADCDE triangle (yellow) top side breakout failure (E)
- touched/failed to break the Blue Pitchfork's top band
- on the news of a BCH hard fork and upcoming civil war of the chains
- on CBOE futures expiration date
Price has stopped at 4200 because of a confluence:
- top of a major green support zone with a quick dip to its median line and bounce back to top
- Orange Pitchfork's top band
- fib level confluence
- BCH ABC fork has won
- major Volume Profile support level
Notes:
1. NO Bull Run This Year (till Spring 2019):
- both the BAKKT launch and the ETF approval are postponed.
There are no fundamental reasons for the price to go up unless some unexpected major event happens (i.e. surprise early ETF approval).
The institutions will not buy an asset without proper security, ensurance and regulation with clear established rules.
The average bitcoin investors either HODL or expect the price to go down and won't buy.
There will be price manipulations, of course, but not a bull run.
- professional traders take profit and exit before Thanksgiving/Christmas. Expect a low volume sideways market or further decline/drop to new ATL.
- We'll see how the Switzerland ETP performs next week but don't expect a lot - they are just testing waters.
2. We have dropped to unimaginable RSI 6 on D1. And there was no substantial bounce! We also had a major divergence on H4.
The indicators are broken/useless in these market conditions. Shorts >> Longs. Still no squeeze. Nothing. No liquidity, no sellers.
_______________________________
There are 3 scenarios:
1. a ranging sideways market between 4-5K
2. a drop to 3K (next major support zone top, green down channel bottom, pitchfork's support line, fib confluence)
3. a grinding uptrend to max 5500 this year and then 6800 at BAKKT launch, decline afterwards
Also expect:
- violent moves on the CME futures expiration dates.
- more Tether FUD related fakeout spikes in Bitcoin. They can't pump, they can only drop Tether even more to get some shorts liquidated.
Bitcoin is in a yellow down channel, just bounced from its bottom. It will move sideways for a while but when it touches/fails to break:
- 5K psychological level
- pitchfork median line
- supply line (purple)
- 5500 bottom of the pink support zone (now supply resistance)
- top band of the yellow channel
the price will bounce down and drop into a larger green down channel, make a new bottom if 4K support doesn't hold.
And this new green channel has a bottom band crossing at 3K.
Blue demand channel is defined by 2 bottoms and 1 top. It needs readjustment for the top band if the current bottom doesn't hold and price drops further.
Yellow/Green supply channels are defined by 2 tops and 1 bottom. They don't need readjustment.
If the current 4200 bottom holds, we will continue in a blue channel with a max price for the year 7900 (blue channel crossing the larger pink support zone top) but chances of reaching that price are slim, that's why I predict only max 5500.
There are 4 counts:
1) (WXYXZ) (red) (bullish, then bearish)
This count has 2nd X at 6800 and Z at 3K. Then a bull run should start.
a drop to 3K is possible before X starts
triangle in Z and the end of correction - both bullish and bearish
- Bullish - we may go up and retest 11000 pivot (thin Ichimoku cloud will soon allow that) in 12345 up trend
- Bearish - WXYXZ can transform into a larger WXY and become only its first W wave, with whatever wave X up follows being just an upwards correction
2) (WXY) (blue) (bullish, then bearish)
a (WXY) variation of (WXYXZ) (red) with first X further down the channel, still implies 2nd X upwards correction.
results in a 2nd X upwards correction or a down trend continuation in wave Y with a drop to 3K before 2nd X starts
3) (WXYXZ) (green) (bullish)
this count implies that the 2018 bear market correction is over and a bull run/correction upwards should start now. But it won't happen due to fundamental reasons.
That's why I'm moving 12345 up trend to spring
4) (WXYXZ) (orange)
this is basically an inverted upwards WXYXZ subwave inside a long X after the first W with Z ending at 6800 or blue channel top, with another decline afterwards.
depending on ABCDE triangle there are also 2 subcounts for each count:
- in type1 subcount ABCDE is not a triangle but an ABC inside Y or Z or each count
- in type2 subcount ABCDE is a triangle inside wave X with a higher probabiliy drop to 3K, so
all corresponding 2nd Xs move to their alt pos (E) and
all Ys to their corresponding alt pos at 3K
in EW 2nd X and last Y/Z can be a triangle
So, basically all counts are the same: sideways, then drop to 3K. Or upwards correction to 6800, then drop. Or just ranging sideways for 1-2 months
Good Luck! Please, don't trade based only on my analysis, confirm/disprove using other sources.
WAS THIS IT FOR THE LONG ON BITCOIN CASH?5 waves completed.
Target fib 0.5 (Price: .7745)
Stoploss just above the .2 fibonacci.
Project Phoenix Has Gone LiveWe just had our pump as expected. 300 brave whale HODLers lead by King Leonidas himself are defending the narrow 6K passage to prevent Bitcoin from spilling. Sadly, they will all die for nothing in the end.
Project Phoenix has been initiated to revive the up trend once again. Let's review further options for Bitcoin.
Key Dates:
- Friday or July 27th - expiration of CME futures
- Aug 10th - possible approval of the 1st ever Bitcoin ETF by SEC (not likely, 25-30% chance of happening).
Key Levels:
6800 resistance (also D1 EMA 50)
5800 support, blue horiz channel
Supply line / Pitchfork upper channel (purple) resistance
D1 RSI bands up trend (orange) also green trend support line
Max Resistance Point = 6800 + D1 EMA 50 + Supply line
To become bullish we need to:
- get support of a D1 EMA 50
- break out of the pitchfork down channel/supply line
- break 6800 prev high
- break 7000 psychological level
- get a golden cross on H1 and subsequently on H4. Any upwards move until the golden cross on H4 is a correction of a larger bearish trend.
- in the future break 7800 prev high, D1 EMA 100, D1 EMA 200
1. red WXY upwards correction (could also been 123 of an up trend)
red arrows show possible price moves, mostly to the down side. But we could go to around 7400 (100% ofW)
2. blue WXY down trend continuation
In this scenario Bitcoin will not break 6800, bounce down to 5800 (pitchfork channel) instead, then bounce up to 6500 (purple supply line), drop to a new ATL 5550, then have a major pump before SEC ETF date.
First of all, SEC may not approve the BTC ETF, they could also move their verdict to a later date. Realistically, CME ETF could launch in Q1 2019 if launch at all.
ETF will bring security and liquidity (more spot volume) to the market for the few rich institutional investors, but volatility will drop (no more crazy pumps).
In general, ETF is good for the crypto asset class, the news of the 1st approved ETF will likely be a major BTC price driver.
Right now spot volume on exchanges is dying, there's not much volume on CME/CBOE futures either.
The only "futures" market that's booming in volume is BitMEX, but they are not a true futures exchange like CME, they sell BTC CFDs contracts based on Poloniex price.
Look at Gold chart - PVT has risen a lot after Gold ETF was introduced, but this market has a max price cap now and doesn't move higher than that.
ETF's management will have to legally buy/sell BTC on exchanges to hedge their investor's money against sudden crashes and change of trend direction.
They will do it OTC so, it won't affect the BTC price on the exchanges.
3. Ascending ABCDE triangle (not likely)
We can form an ascending triangle to break 6800 before the futures expiration date July 27th to finish the entire correction and start the new up trend.
Elliott Wave rules allow for that: you can have a triangle only in Y of WXY or Z of WXYXZ or in the last X wave of either of them. This will be the last X of WXYXZ inside a larger degree (Y) of (WXY).
After that the entire (WXY) correction from 20K could be complete allowing for the new up trend to start.
This scenario is not likely because
- we're in a major bearish trend, we need weeks and months or a major global event to change that, you should have multiple confirmations for the up trend to start, and we currently don't have many of those
- the pump just before the futures expiration date seems reckless from the point of money management. Millions are at stake, they can't afford to have a large move just before the last day.
Usually we consolidate for a few days before the futures, then a natural sell-off occurs. So expect a sell-off after the 27th.
A note on the futures:
Last time the futures expired at $5800, so it's not likely for BTC to stay at the same level (no profit). We will either move a $1000 up to $7800 (also not likely), or stay at $6800, or move $2000 down to $4800.
4. We are stuck in horiz channel in a trading range between 5800 and 6800.
BTC/USD - Elliot wave count - Target $11,500Not advice literally just my thoughts to see when I am right or wrong
Please do not use this as advice.
BTC bears you’re gonna like this - $7K range expectedGood day traders,
For the record I’m bullish on this market based on my other ideas. There are too many bullish indicators both fundamentally and technically for me to be bearish. However, we know there are bears among us so let’s take a look at the possibilities from a bearish point of view.
Based on Elliott waves, we know we may have already completed the 4th wave of this third cycle. With that said, we’re looking for a 1-2 push with a significant pull back on the second wave to prepare for a strong third wave. Based on the pull back by (ii) I’d say we got what we’re looking for. With that said, we’re currently in wave (iii) which wave i of (iii) may have just finished since we do have a complete 5 wave. From here we should be looking for a 2nd wave retrace that should take us to either .618 or .786 of this first wave.
Our RSI trend confirms that there is room for some correction with bounce off the RSI so pricing can make its way higher. We also have just bounced off of the 200 day MA and the 10K psychological barrier. Our Heikin Ashi candle is printing a third bearish candle in a row with no upper shadow.
Ladies and gentlemen, we may have ourselves a temporary pull back towards 7700 as the bears take over briefly.
After that we should expect consistent gains with small periodic pull backs to reach the end of wave (iii) at roughly $34K at the end of this year. After which we should experience another short winter for wave (iv) until march or april of 2019 before the final push to wave (v) at roughly $50K
If you found this interesting or comical, feel free to let me know with a like or critical comments. I look forward to the dialogue. As always, good luck and stay safe!
Kinashi San
*For pure fun and joy, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy sell or hold.*
CADJPY, 240, WAIT FOR THE FLAGIf you are not in the trade right now, don't worry wait for a flag then enter the trade.
Only enter the trade when there s a flag and it passes 85.7 point.
Cloudy With A Chance Of MeatBullsAfter a weak death cross of ichimoku MAs Bitcoin has fallen through the thin ozone layer of the ichimoku cloud support on H4. Now we are trying to climb back but the cloud's resistance has a flat bottom which means that we're likely to bounce down. We can move a bit further inside the cloud to 9450 (50% retracement) and get rejected by the ichimoku trend MA. If we're lucky to get another ichimoku MA cross inside the cloud then we might pierce through to the up side.
If this is an up trend's wave (1) with 5 completed waves, the whole 1-5 structure must correct in wave (2) to 50-61.8%. Proper correction is long due because of RSI divergence.
So, I think, we will go down in ABC fashion to 8600 (38.2% retracement), then go up and bounce down from 9000/EMA 200 to 8200 (50%) or 7800 (61.8%). The trend line will not hold.
Breaking 8800 (end of wave 4) and EMA 200 to the bearish side and making a new low will confirm further correction.
RSI's value back at the start of up trend (RSI = 28) will likely be the max bottom of wave (2) (blue line).
Watch EMA 200, Ichimoku MA cross inside the cloud, RSI 28. The MeatBulls are coming later.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Please, do your own research.
Just an idea but I would say were looking bullish BTCUSDSome reasons why I am long:
On the RSI we have made 3 new lower lows while the price has made higher lows which are bullish signs
I have a count that we are in wave 2 of the major wave
The MACD is upticking on the histogram and is bouncing on a support
Not advice I am just using this for my own benefit to see how bad I do :)
Target $11500...... ish
DXY Bearish Butterfly + 3rd Elliot Wave flag consolidation.As you all may know in my previous TVC:DXY analysis I shared a bearish trap in the weekly analysis , right now TVC:DXY is in a Bearish flag consolidation at our 4H chart and a Bearish Butterfly Pattern.
Also you can see that TVC:DXY is losing strength in MACD and RSI indicators divergence indicated in chart, therefore is a good time to go selling short down to 89.9 zone.
Remember that TVC:DXY directly affects all mayor pairs, therefore you can short selling pairs like FX:USDCHF , OANDA:USDJPY , OANDA:USDCAD or short buying in pairs like FX_IDC:XAUUSD , FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD .
Also I am glad to share that we are creating a Telegram Group for Forex Advance Helping with no fees and payments, only for forex advanced analysis sharing, If you want to join us, just leave a post in this analysis and I will contact you back.
Safety Trading Folks!!!
Elliot Wave - ICON BTC Deep Retracement, are the Bulls ready?After hitting bottom of 2146 stat in March that signaled the completion of the Primary Wave 2 (white). If Elliot wave count holds we should be on our way heading up for Primary Wave 3. Within Primary Wave 3 we will have many smaller Elliot Waves.
I believe that we are currently in a smaller sub wave (yellow) and just hit the bottom of wave 4 after hitting pretty much the maximum retracement possible @ 0.887 (yellow box). If we continue to fall below 2555 stat, this wave count will be invalid and will need to evaluate the wave count again.
However, if are able to hold above 2803 stat we could see a run up to wave 3 highs and beyond. The safe play would be to buy on confirmation of wave 5 breakout. We can confirm wave 5 break out after it has moved beyond the wave 3 peak (green box).
Note: This is just for entertainment, do not use for trading purposes and understand there are high risks trading crypto currencies.
