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BNB and Elliott Wave Theory: A Trader's JourneyCryptocurrency trading is a dynamic world where market sentiment can shift rapidly, and even experienced traders can find themselves reassessing their positions. Recently, I had an interesting experience that highlights the importance of staying open minded and continuously refining one's technical analysis skills. In this story, I encountered a fellow trader's idea posted on Trading View, and it led me down a fascinating path of Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis. This tale serves as a reminder of how traders can adapt and learn from their mistakes, ultimately benefiting the broader trading community. A Misstep in My Initial Assessment It all began when I stumbled upon a trading idea shared by Solldy . At first glance, their chart appeared to display a classic EWT triangle pattern. Eager to contribute to the discussion, I quickly commented on their post, sharing my insights on what I believed to be an EWT triangle formation. However, my excitement was short-lived. Upon revisiting the chart after posting my comment, I realised that I had overlooked a crucial detail: the price had entered the triangle from the downside. This oversight changed the entire context of my initial analysis and sent me on a quest to reassess the situation. Exploring the Elliott Wave Counts To make amends for my earlier error, I decided to create my own chart to clarify my perspective. In my first attempt, I encountered some inconsistencies that led me to a surprisingly bearish outlook. While it is essential to consider all possibilities in trading, this extreme bearish scenario seemed unlikely, given the broader context. A Second, Less Bearish Count Undeterred by the initial complexity, I continued my Elliott Wave analysis, determined to provide a more accurate assessment. This time, I arrived at a second count that was significantly less bearish. This count not only felt more in tune with the current market sentiment but also opened up new trading opportunities. A Trading Opportunity Emerges One of the valuable takeaways from this experience is that even when facing setbacks, traders can find silver linings. Through my renewed analysis, I identified a promising trading opportunity: a potential Long position upon the completion of Primary Wave 4, with an eye on the completion of Primary Wave 5. The Bigger Picture While I acknowledge that my second count is not yet fully measured and validated, I have decided to put this information out into the trading community. By sharing my insights and potential trading ideas, I hope to contribute to informed decision making among fellow traders. In conclusion, this journey demonstrates the ever evolving nature of our understanding of financial markets. It underscores the importance of humility in trading and the need to adapt, learn, and continuously improve our analytical skills. Trade safe.
by JMSBurton
Beginning Wave V of Impulse off July LoEnd goal is 506-510 by as early as April, but more likely May Near term there is a decision point at 434 that will at least be tested for breakout in the coming weeks. If it breaksout expect 450, then pullback to test 434 for support, then finally move to low 500s. Risk is definitely present with the possibility of filling gap down to 404.97; however, assume wave V is realized then it would be proceeded by a corrective wave to apprx. the wave IV low (in this case it would wait and fill gap down then and not now). Highly recommended stock long-term based on my research on the company, IBD has 448.50 as the Buy-Point. DE impressed on earnings on Feb. 17, which can act as near-term catalyst if buyers pile in on this 0.618 pullback. Not Financial Advice, but this is a Buy atm.
NYSE:DELong
by JerryManders
EURUSD - Short opportunityHello, EURUSD's right side of the market is down. At this moment, it is inside a corrective cycle from Sep-22. This correction has an abc structure, and we expect it to reach the green zone before turning down and continuing the USD strength cycle. Therefore we can sell EURUSD once the price reaches the IZ (green area) having as a target, at least, the 0.9555 level. Always keep in mind that risk management is, at least, as important as the entry-level or the SL. Remember the quote “If you do not manage the risk, you will not have any risk to manage” The market is always repeating the same type of defined structures. There are only two main wave types: the motive wave and when the motive wave ends it starts a corrective wave. Within them, there are only 3 motive waves structures (Impulse, leading diagonal , and ending diagonal ) and 5 main types of corrective structures (ABC, WXY, Flats, triangle, WXYXZ (triple correction)) Learning them and being able to spot them in the price action graphs will completely change the way you trade as these structures will provide entry point areas, invalidation levels, and targets for the trade. Have a safe and profitable trading day Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it is only the explanation of what we are going to do and it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Short
by TradingtheRightSide
APE 3 NEXT MOVES PREDICTION BASED ON ELLIOT WAVEIf there is one thing I love about APE it is the way it respond to Elliot Wave analysis. Wave 1 ending at $17.298, wave 2 respected the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786% at $9.505 then consolidated forming the a,b,c,d,e corrective Elliot wave 2. After breakout we see the 1.00% Fibonacci Extension perfectly at $19.580. (now this is where the trap occurs most time this level are not perfectly respected they tend to poke out a bit) and that is why I have set a tight stop loss above $19.580 but I am confident based on how APE has been respecting these levels perfectly. And yes this is what I love about APE! Furthermore the next retracement downward (you can take a short position at set target at ($17.150 - .120). If APE continue to behave nicely as it has been doing then we will see upward movement from ($17.150 - .120).
by DewyCandles
"Somehow" Elon Musk dumps TSLA at key Technical Fib LevelI have been thinking about this idea for a while. There are lots of people that think that technical analysis doesn't work or it is "astrology for men" on one end of the spectrum to the other end where people say "if you show me the charts I can tell you the news." This is one of those moments in time where it seems to be closer to "if you show me the charts I can tell you the news" because when a major asset reaches key levels the news does seem to be able to magically appear to make things happen. In this instance, right as TSLA hit a positive fib retracement of 1.618 at $1,235 when drawn from the Jan 2021 high of $900 to the March low of $539. If you follow trading content creators that regularly use fib extentions and retracements you will know that they regularly draw attention to the ".618" class of fibs (0.618, 1.618, 2.618, etc) because those are regularly occurring targets based on Elliot wave theory. Many times, if you are aiming for a ".618" type target, even if it does get to the whole number above it, say you take profit at the 0.618 level and it reaches the 1.0 level the most impulsive part of the move is done already. It seems at the very least that Elon got luckly. More likely than that though is he has the presence of mind to have someone able to give him good financial advice on when and where to sell and he took that advice. This whole twitter poll thing seems to be a sideshow to me. Anyone in this day and age that thinks major platforms are not botted and astroturf'd haven't been paying attention. People have been able to buy users and views since the Myspace days. It is acknowledged that in the early days of reddit the admin team would regularly have a feature where they were given a new username every time they logged on to make the site seem more active than it was (venturebeat.com). In other words, all electronically run polls have been meaninglessness for decades. As I said, a side show. This isn't him selling stock for another business venture, this is him selling stock as part of some grand standing. Other investors understand if Elon wants to sell to shore up a new company or venture but investors won't want to hold when it appears that Elon, as the name behind TSLA, is dumping in what appears to be such a reckless manner. My personal opinion on that. My linked idea shows that I have been watching TSLA to top for a while now. I was looking to buy the dip based on Elliot wave but it seems I was too early and my targets were never reached. Which means I was on the sidelines for this rally and my buy the dip targets will need to be reassessed. The good news is I have some time before that happens, really. Corrections are often quicker than uptrend but this trend has been going for a couple of years now. One key issue for TSLA is it has not had a lot of serious horizontal retests of key levels on the weekly time frame. When TSLA was chopping broadly sideways and up from 2014 to 2019 it lost around 50% several times. It lost about 70% of its value in the C19 dump. It can be staged for a right beating over the next year or so. I would expect a big ABC correction and for a bear market that "dies with a whimper" Here are the weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands. Not 100% right now, but I do think that if you want to buy the dip with patience you can get it below the monthly bollinger band in due time. My very long term plan In due time will come in quite a while. I have been on the sidelines for TSLA and will remain so. We have monthly bearish divergence on the RSI and I am not messing with this. Part of me wants to do some options trading and later I might regret not doing it, but with some personal stuff going on it isn't worth my energy. For value investors there is always buying below the 200 week SMA or even more ambitiously, the 400 week SMA. Both of those downside targets have been reached in the past and I think I will be employing that strategy. It is simple and low effort to just buy those moving targets. So I will continue to wait on the sidelines.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by This_Guhy
4
THAILAND SET: SABUY - SPECULATIVE BUY - TP 14.5 - 15.0NEW TP2 POSITION - WAVE 5. Take profit Position - Target Price 1 - reached 12.0 after breaking out resistance 1.618 (10.65) and sustained above the level while overall THAILAND SET index declined lower than 1600 on Oct 1st. > Current price broke lower EMA20 - take profit position. > Overall BANKER FUND FLOW decreasing. > RSI near oversold position. > Possible 2nd TARGET BUY POSITION - 10.7 when fund flow turned positive, oversold, and double bottom in timeframe 1 HOUR. > NEW TP2 AT WAVE 5 - 14.5 - 15.0
SET:SABUYLong
by dukeposh
🦴 $Shib was Bearish, Now Bullish$Shib is on the brink of a major breakout! I made a recent idea where $Shib was looking very bearish! With the most recent news with $Shib listing on coinbase, that alone will propel this baby into another stratospheres! On the 3-day time frame $Shib it's still clearly consolidating inside of Symmetrical triangle ( based on someone's comment on my last $Shib idea I took another look, I was right it is a symmetrical triangle) My breakout target is still the same 0.00001666. They say "Meme coins" are inspired by jokes, but I guess when it breakouts the jokes on you if you don't have any. 🤷‍♂️
Long
by Nick.TkgProfits
1
ADA and ADA.D and crazy targetsADA has had an extraordinarily good last 5 days and we are going into the weekend before the weekly candle closes so a lot of the observations on the chart are still pending. This post is just another iteration of my volatility and momentum system that I have developed over the last couple of years. Just grinding what works for me. The Thumbs up are what has flipped bullish and needs to be maintained till the weekly close. The question marks are what still need to develop and are unlikely to develop this period. Getting everything to be thumbs up on the weekly can get us a high probability impulse. Last time we went from 15c to over $2 before the weekly VSTOP flipped. We can outdo that this impulse. The chart below Using the double ichimoku clouds for trends and volatility we can see price action has popped above the kijun (crypto) settings and both clouds are bullish. This is a very good place to be if you are long. The On Balance Volume EMAs are getting themselves stacked bullish once again with OBV above the 10 EMA, which is above the 20, which is above the 100. There is not a lot of detail to the monthly chart but it is clear that no component of my system flipped bearish on this time frame while other top coins did. That puts ADA as a leader. I am not going to give you a powerpoint of death, but ADA is bullish on the daily, 3d and monthly according to my system. It just needs to get the weekly sorted out and I believe that has a high chance of happening. The chart on Ada Dominance is extraordinarily bullish. It may go x3 in 2022 in a bull market which suggest massive gains for ADAUSD. The rising wedge does appear to converge on the 1.618 level and generally that predicts a breakdown to the bottom of the wedge. In blow off tops you can see price action pop out the top of a rising wedge before reversing in dramatic fashion. This will be a chart to watch. Here is my crazy bull market scenario. I have seen enough movements assets to reach the 2 line that I think this has a higher chance of occurring than most people would initially accept. Have a look at TSLA. It consolidated for 6 years and then has gone up to the 3 line and might take out the 4 line on the next upleg. Absolutely crazy target. If you said that TSLA could be at 715 when it was at 50 (accounting for the split) and you thought 1400 was a target people would have called you mad. But a few years later here we are. And ADA has a lower market cap and a faster market cycle. Here is Bitcoin with a fib log channel from 2015 when it was under $200. That 1.618 line has been very predictive of stalls and tops. The 1 line was very powerful as support. I think we will see BTCUSD approach the 2 line, very easily. All that suggest to me that my ADA target is crazy, but doable. My plan? Look for pull backs to buy on the 12h or daily on heiken ashi candles and use those to add to my position and set stop losses. If price is above the clouds and above the 50 period and we go from red to green and get some shadow less candles it is time to look for an impulse. I hope to let my winners run and so I will be doing more of trailing my stops up than taking profits unless we are at a serious level on the fib log channel.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by This_Guhy
12