Tesla Shortdon't mind my gibberish, is 4 personal follow up on trade strategy.
too many fundamentals screaming for musk-pocalypse
seekingalpha.com
Problems Model 3 (production, model itself)
Strongly shorted % of free float, shortvolume.com
Order book only half full, reservations aren’t orders.
Executive departures
Cash burn rate & profitability, www.ft.com
High level of corporate debt, ftalphaville.ft.com
Raising equity: www.bloomberg.com
Massive market cap vs EV new entrants 2018-2019: TSLA 50bn market cap vs Toyota 25bn, vw 84bn, bmw 57bn, audi 34bn, ford 45bn)
ELON
Is Tesla a Cult Stock? Big Longs, Big Shorts, and New Money. . .Tesla as a company inspires controversy today just as its namesake scientist did many years ago.
Is TSLA price supported by a cult-like following rallying around its futuristic visions and outspoken genius-billionaire Elon Musk?
More importantly, what stock price makes sense for Tesla? There's no good answer; but based on fundamental factors alone (missed earnings, hazy forecasting, uncertain production and sales, dispute over what sectors the company operates in and what exactly the company "is" and "does," and the conundrum that poses for risk and profitability assessment), Tesla should be trading at much lower prices. The shorts seem to think so, with short interest in the stock weighing in at almost one-third of the tradable float.
It's clear many believe Tesla price will fall as the company's visions don't come to fruition. A plummeting stock price would lead to a funding debacle for Tesla's varied projects.
The scientist Nikola Tesla was driven to madness and ruin as big money left his projects to wither. Without the nutrition of capital for funding his innovations, Nikola's breakthrough ideas fell by the wayside and his business endeavors crumbled.
Big money and big players conspired against Tesla the scientist and his gregarious futuristic ideals. Will Tesla the company suffer the same fate as Tesla the scientist?
A lot of money is betting against the company and the fundamentals don't make sense. Is Tesla price being propped by investors who believe in Musk's vision and the revolutionary implications of his technologies, who will HODL no matter what the company's stock does? The top handful of holders of Tesla stock own about 50% of the value of the company, including Musk himself. Musk recently agreed to a desirable pay package, so F.U.D. speculation that Elon was heading for the exits seems to be just that - F.U.D.
So we have a handful of believers HODL-ing half of Tesla stock, and big short interest - a third of the float - believing Tesla stock is headed down. Some analysts believe the stock will head higher, trigger a short squeeze, and catapult the stock price hundreds of dollars higher than it is now. Others believe Tesla's efforts span too much breadth across too many industries and the company will collapse, unable to raise money for its endeavors.
Will Tesla the company persevere with its groundbreaking innovations in technologies spanning several industries and areas of life, squeezing the shorts and bringing value to shareholders and consumers alike?
Or will Tesla the company go the way of Tesla the scientist, ostracized as the big money clears out, leaving big ideas to wither?
Only time will tell. Initiative\activist investing can only go so far, but if things go right, they might go very right, not only in a business sense, but in a futuristic sense as well.
Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together.
Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
SCTY crossroadsDescending triangle spotted in SCTY weekly. Will coal affect it's price?
I'm seeing two patterns. One is a descending triangle continuation or an inverse head and shoulder.
Whatever it is, do take the time to observe how it unfolds. Personally, I think it will bounce to $46 and then range. I personally do not think it will shoot up or shit all the way down.
I'm neutral
TSLA Cup and Handle 2.0In the end of August of 2014, Tesla completed the formation of a cup with a short handle, and within a few trading sessions, catalysts such as the China Unicom charger deal and Stifel's upgrade of TSLA with a price target of $400 caused the stock to break out and confirm the pattern. A similar cup and short handle has formed today ahead of the Model X reveal. TSLA CEO Elon Musk said in the last quarterly call that Model X configurations will be done in "Early July", which by Tesla time, is actually "Late July".
Tesla is going to have to supercharge after this driveTesla, aka the "stock of 2014" looks like its wild drive might be coming to a temporary end.
As much as I love this company, I see us at a temporary top, and I am looking for a shorting opportunity in the 265-275 zone.
Wave properties since March suggest we are in a corrective ABC flat, and are close to the B "top". Other indicators such as RSI and declining volume are supporting this theory. Since the B wave is (and should a little more) higher then the top of wave 5, this suggests we will have an "irregular flat", meaning wave C should drop lower then wave A. But since this is a powerful company, a safe target to close short would be anywhere near the 190 zone.
Even teslas don't run forever. Let this puppy charge up for a while.
Good luck