Elonmusk
bitcoin elon 69 420Yes this is crazy, but these relevant numbers are reflected in the chart as timeframes and value supports. They are not fib levels that I know of, they are human only levels.
This may be a case of group-think, but for me it is more likely a loose orginisation of wealthy investors who are using the levels intervals to increase their bitcoin positions.
Note: this gets zero visibility when posting on twitter, maybe it's unpopular, but it more like it hasn't been visible. That does kind of makes sense though.
Long story short, best guess Elon is back, and number go up.
TSLA | TESLA is OvervaluedTesla, Inc.'s second quarter earnings confirm our view that the stock is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market.
Tesla's stock has been rising this year amid a sudden shift in overall market sentiment, with many investors now pricing in a soft-landing scenario after a brutal past year of Federal Reserve rate hikes. But the shift in market sentiment doesn't change the fact that Tesla's stock fundamentals are completely disconnected from reality. Tesla is a terribly overvalued stock that we think is worth closer to $26 per share instead of its current price of about $290 per share.
While Tesla is profitable, its profits are nowhere near the levels needed to justify its current valuation. We recognize that Tesla's business generates an impressive return on invested capital (ROIC), which is a key measure of profitability, especially for an automaker. However, that ROIC is already declining in the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) period.
Using our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we find that for the stock to have any upside at current levels, Tesla must improve its ROIC to levels not achieved by even the most profitable businesses in the world . Figure 1 shows Tesla's historical ROIC along with the future ROIC implied by its current stock price. We provide the assumptions behind this DCF scenario later in this report.
Tesla's latest earnings continue to show that it is not immune to competitive challenges and will likely see lower profitability in the future. But, its valuation implies the opposite. Any investor with fiduciary duties should be aware of the growing disconnect between Tesla's current fundamentals and the future fundamentals implied by its stock price. Even in an optimistic future cash flow scenario, shares could trade as low as $26/share. All the details are below.
Supply Constrained Argument Is Gone: Bulls have long argued that demand for Tesla vehicles has always exceeded the supply of vehicles. However, Tesla's multiple price cuts in 2023, along with its lackluster production levels through the first half of 2023, raise questions about just how much demand there is for Tesla vehicles, especially amid competition from rivals Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and virtually every other automaker. Q2 2023 marks Tesla's fifth consecutive quarter in which vehicles produced were greater than vehicles delivered. Tesla is no longer selling every vehicle it can make. Should demand for EVs slow, Tesla could find itself with higher than wanted inventory levels, which could lead to further price cuts and additional pressure on already falling margins.
Continued Cash Burn: Despite Tesla's top line growth, it continues to burn massive amounts of cash. Over the past five years, Tesla has burned a cumulative $4.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF), including $3.6 billion over the trailing-twelve months (TTM) alone. Tesla has generated negative FCF in all but one year (2019) of its existence as a public company.
Margin Decline: Tesla's "GAAP gross margin" was 18.2% in 2Q23, down from 19.3% in 1Q23 and 25.0% in 2Q22. 2Q23's GAAP gross margin was below expectations of 18.7% and remains at its lowest level since 4Q20.
Tesla's operating margin is also moving the wrong direction as it scales up. After selling 211 thousand more vehicles in 2Q23 compared to 2Q22, Tesla's reported operating margin fell 493 basis points YoY in 2Q23. Tesla noted in its press release that reduced average selling prices were one of the items that impacted margins in the quarter. We would expect Tesla's margins to fall further as competition limits pricing power across the industry.
While Tesla has rapidly ramped up vehicle production and deliveries, its market share must increase almost exponentially to justify the expectations baked into its stock price. However, as it stands, Tesla holds a meager share of the global auto industry, and its share of the EV market ranks behind incumbents across Europe and China.
In Europe, based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds a 12% share of the EV market, much lower than VW Group (20%) and Stellantis (STLA) at (14%).In China, also based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds 9% of the EV market compared to a staggering 38% share for top competitor BYD.
Bulls have long argued that Tesla isn't just an automaker, but rather a technology company with multiple verticals such as insurance, solar power, housing, and, yes, robots. We've long refuted these bull dreams. Regardless of the promises of developing multiple business lines, Tesla's business remains concentrated in its auto segment. Auto revenue accounted for 86% of Tesla's TTM revenue as of 2Q23.Tesla can no longer enjoy its first mover advantage as many other major automakers are producing electric vehicles. These competitors have more experience in auto production and more resources and cash flow than Tesla to invest in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla is at risk of losing market share to its competitors in the electric vehicle space and its stock price is currently not reflecting that, which is a major risk for investors.
Since bottoming out at the beginning of the year, the stock has come up almost 200%, stopping just shy of $300.
One could say the recent selloff is due to the earnings, but technical analysis would have suggested that a selloff was due even before the earnings.
Firstly, we can see that a significant bearish divergence has been building in the RSI since June. Furthermore, we have been nearing an important area of trade as highlighted by the red rectangle. The $300 level has been a key area of trade, and you’d expect to see some resistance.
So if a pullback has begun where can we expect it to end?
As I see it, we have formed an initial ABC structure from the lows in wave 1 of a five-wave impulse. This means that wave ii could now take us down to the 61.8% retracement of this rally, which lands us at $198.
We can see that this is also a very important area of support, as shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile. And, of course, we have the 200 day Moving Average offering support around this level, too.
tsla → is it the end of correction?!hello guys...
I published before this analysis:
I believe the target of the short position was 127$!
but now the price made a three-drive pattern and showed us a manipulated area! I think if the price comes higher than 185$ it will mean the correction is done!
let's see what happens!
___________________________
✓✓✓ Always do your research.
❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Will Tesla Double in Price This Year, Obliterate Bill GatesIt's gone a week or so, since Elon Musk gave Bill Gates advance warning last Tuesday not to truffle with him again. The Microsoft cofounder faces annihilation if he makes any further attempt to bet against Tesla.
That’s because Musk believes he will have transformed the carmaker into an AI colossus worth a staggering $30 trillion as soon as Tesla completes its pivot from selling EVs first and foremost to operating a lucrative fleet of robo-taxis and humanoid robots.
“Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated,” he posted to social media on Tuesday. “Even Gates.”
Indeed Tesla stocks recently jumped, erased all the 2024Y losses, to print new 6Mo highs. 52-weeks SMA has been passed through also, while Daily RSI(14) skyrocketed to 85+ area.
Tesla is Dressed To The Nines.
This English idiom meaning “The highest degree of perfection.” Literally, the idiom means “Dressed like a brand new man.”
Btw, in financial circles, this is how they speak about assets after a Super Combo rally of continuous growth in shares or indices , after nine consecutive growing bars in a row (daily, weekly, monthly time frames).
That’s exactly how many (nine) daily growth bars in a row were recorded on the eve of July 8, 2024 in Tesla shares.
In nowadays even Tesla printed not 9-day but even 10-day winning streak, with the stock soaring 44% over the period. Prior to the rebound, shares were down 27% year-to-date, but they're now back in positive territory for the year, up nearly 6%.
And it marked the second biggest combo rally in Tesla shares after May-June 2023, when the stock rose continuously for 13 (!) trading sessions in a row.
It is worth to note that last time, after reaching “The Super Combo” in Tesla shares, Up/Down price deviations over the next 12 months were approximately equal, approximately 30-35 percent in each direction.
Who knows, how many extra days will last this series right now, and where this soap opera ends.
It's clear Mr. Elon wants to zap investors stress fast.
Tesla TSLA Soars on Strong Q2 Deliveries
Tesla stock TSLA has surged remarkably by more than +10% near a six-month high Tuesday to close at $231.26, after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter delivery numbers.
Technically speaking, TSLA shows clear bulls' control, especially after confirming the breakout of the inverted H&S pattern and the downward medium-term trendline.
Targets: $256.00 - $276.00.
How Tesla Stock Rebounded Back to Green After 40% Loss in 2024EV king powered higher over the past couple months, charged on hopes of returning growth even as returning growth is nowhere to be seen. But does it matter? Let’s find out.
Tesla Erases 40% Drop in Electrifying Rally
Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA ) is on a tear. A powerful comeback has shut the haters’ mouths as the electric-car maker is up about 80% from its 2024 nadir back in April. In other words, more than $350 billion have been added to Tesla’s market cap in the span of a couple months.
What’s driving the electrifying charge in the popular auto maker, arguably the most popular ? It’s a bunch of factors. But more than anything, it’s investors’ big expectations over returning growth after the car company’s shares were begging to be scooped up by bargain hunters.
Tesla stock had slumped about 40% on the year through late April while other big tech giants were busy logging records and getting AI drunk. Take Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) or Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ). Or any of the Magnificent Seven members. They’ve all been celebrated over prospects of artificial intelligence-driven gains.
The apparent disconnect between Tesla and the rest of the Mag 7 crew is no longer there. After stringing up a winning streak of eight straight days of winnings through Friday, Tesla shares managed to reel out of their deep 2024 losses and move in the green by about 1%.
Deliveries Fuel Investors’ Long Bets
Better-than-expected delivery figures underpinned the recent leg up. The Elon Musk-led company shipped 443,956 vehicles globally in the three months ended June, a 4.8% decline from the same quarter last year. And while this drop, the second one in a row, indicated that the business of deliveries didn’t grow, investors got excited about the consensus-beating numbers. Analysts anticipated 439,302 delivered units. It was also better than the first-quarter delivery figure of 386,810 .
Optimism about artificial intelligence is also a key factor in steering the share price higher. It’s worth mentioning that Tesla, which recently started churning out profits , has decreased its production rate and manufactured about 411,000 vehicles in the last quarter. Lower production count translates to lower inventories, reduced costs and less pressure to cut prices in order to get rid of cars gathering dust in factories.
All that means the company could splurge some cash on other projects in the pipeline and a refresh of existing ones.
Elon Musk + AI + Promises = Profits???
The advance of robots and AI-powered assistants is among the top priorities for Elon Musk. Tesla’s second-generation humanoid robot Optimus debuted last week at Shanghai’s 2024 World AI Conference. First released in 2021, Optimus was designed as an everyday AI assistant to help out with things like carrying stuff, cleaning up and cooking. Before it’s launched to the public, Tesla plans to test it out in its factories starting in early 2025.
To this, Elon Musk had only one thing to do — slam the short sellers and send them into “obliteration.”
”Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production,” Musk wrote on X, “anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated.” He went further to call out one specific Tesla permabear — Bill Gates .
Buyer Beware!
Now on to some concerning reality checks that can make you think twice before plowing your hard-earned money into the EV maker. Tesla’s fleet of vehicles is aging badly. The Model Y is just about to pop the confetti for its fifth birthday. A lack of innovation into Tesla’s best-selling models may strip some of the company’s brand recognition for slick-looking, ultra-modern EVs.
What’s more, Tesla faces fierce competition from the East. China’s biggest maker of electric cars BYD (ticker: 1211 ), sold a record number of electric and hybrid cars in the last quarter. And it’s threatening to overtake Tesla as the world’s top EV manufacturer.
In June, Tesla’s market share in China dwindled by a worrying 24% from a year ago while the broader sales numbers went up thanks to the rollout of cheaper EV alternatives. BYD’s sales rose 24% in the second quarter to 426,039 EVs.
We Want to Hear from You
Can Tesla continue its run and keep the profits flowing to fund its risky bets on AI? Judging by the share price increase, investors seem to think so. What do you think?
Let us know in the comments below.
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
DOGE Dogecoin Bullish ReversalIf you haven`t bought DOGE before the breakout:
Nor sold the top:
Now upon closely examining the chart pattern of DOGE, it appears that the cryptocurrency is positioned for a bullish reversal within the confines of a falling wedge formation. This technical pattern, often seen as a precursor to a price breakout, suggests that Dogecoin could be on the verge of reversing its downward trend and entering a phase of upward momentum.
Tesla (TSLA) IdeaHey Guys,
Yearly= In a Correction since 2022.
2023 managed only to retest the 50% of the Bearish Candle which is not Bullish but indicated a drop.
Yearly Zones of Interest: 208 & 154
Q2= Bullish Candle at an important Yearly FIB. BUT still in a declining channel.
Stochastic is neutral- bullish. Q4 could provide some bullish setup (according to the stochastics) since we might be forming a higher low here.
Bulls must manage to break through at least the 222 Resistance.
Monthly: Stochastic is bullish - candlestick as well… however the 205 level becomes critical as it is retested with this candle. we also are testing the upper line of a declining channel -> a warning of a possible decline for the next month or so.
Warning line at 205 and the next at 222 as these zones have to be broken to attract more buyers into the markets.
Below 205 I see a great likelyhood of a retest of 3D Lows
Thanks for reading
TSLA : Big Resistance Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Tesla stock chart, we can see that the price has once again reached the supply zone at $185 and has been unsuccessful in breaking through the resistance. For this reason, our previous analysis remains valid. We need to see when this decline will finally start! The supply zone is between $191 and $206, and the bearish targets for this stock are $168, $153, and $139 respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Tesla's Robotaxi Event: Alphabet's Waymo Could Be the Real WinneTesla's upcoming Robotaxi event on Aug. 8 has the potential to spotlight Alphabet's Waymo division. While Tesla garners attention for its self-driving car ambitions, Alphabet's Waymo already operates autonomous taxis across the U.S. Analysts suggest that renewed interest in Waymo could significantly boost Alphabet's stock. The autonomous vehicle market is vast, with potential revenue in the billions. As both companies vie for a share, Wall Street sees self-driving cars as a trillion-dollar opportunity.
Tesla Sues Matthews Over EV Battery Trade SecretsTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has taken legal action against its former supplier, Matthews International, in a California federal court for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to Tesla's battery-manufacturing process and sharing them with Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) competitors. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, claims that Matthews owes damages exceeding $1 billion for misusing Tesla's trade secrets concerning dry electrode battery manufacturing technology.
Matthews, a Pittsburgh-based company that started supplying manufacturing machinery to Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) in 2019, allegedly shared Tesla's innovations related to dry-electrode coating with unnamed competitors. This technology is crucial for reducing the size, cost, energy consumption, and production cycle time of battery manufacturing plants, while enhancing the energy density and power of battery cells.
According to the lawsuit, Matthews not only shared Tesla's trade secrets but also claimed Tesla's inventions as its own in patent filings, revealing confidential Tesla information. Tesla is seeking the court's intervention to prevent Matthews from further misusing its trade secrets, compel Matthews to surrender its patent applications, and claim monetary damages.
As of now, representatives from Matthews and attorneys and spokespeople from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) have not responded to requests for comments on this matter.
Technical Outlook
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock is up 4.48% in Monday's market trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58.34 which is poised for further gains and if Tesla Inc. should win the case against Matthews we should expect price impact.
Next price 212My theory is that the price was artificially depressed until the approval of Elon's compensation package so that he could get what he wanted at the lowest possible price, thus helping the company and the shareholders. This action is a "cash cow." Elon will once again become the richest man in the world and will reach above $400 in a very short time. Today we have a megaphone formation that takes us beyond $212
Tesla - Indecision with the triangleNASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for almost 4 years and is definitely ready for a breakout!
+3.300% was the previous rally on Tesla which started back in 2019. But at the moment Tesla is not looking bullish whatsoever, considering that Tesla is trading at the same level as it was about four years ago. However, there is a long term descending triangle formation forming and therefore it is quite likely that we will (soon) see a breakout, either towards the upside or towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $210, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
DOGE Ready for next expansion stage. Happy Monday traders!
Today we are taking a look at the All Time History of DOGE coin. Before we look at eh price action of DOGE lets take a trip down memory lane and give you some history of this coin.
Doge: Much Coin, Very History
Doge, in internet meme culture, refers to a photo of a Shiba Inu dog with multicolored Comic Sans text captions representing the dog's thoughts. This meme became wildly popular in the early 2010s, inspiring. Yet, most have never looked up the true meaning of the word DOGE.
Dogecoin (DOGE), launched in December 2013 by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer. It was created as a lighthearted parody of the seriousness surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at the time. They built Dogecoin using Litecoin's open-source code, which itself stemmed from Bitcoin.
Dogecoin quickly gained a loyal following, especially on sites like Reddit, where it became a popular tipping currency for content creators. Despite its comedic origins, DOGE achieved surprising success. Here are some milestones:
Instant popularity: Over a million visitors flocked to Dogecoin.com within the first month.
Community focus: Dogecoin fosters a fun and inclusive online community, a stark contrast to some other cryptocurrencies.
Elon Musk effect: Celebrity endorsements, particularly from Elon Musk, have caused the price of DOGE to fluctuate dramatically.
Highs and lows: In 2021, DOGE reached a peak market capitalization of over $85 billion, but its value remains volatile.
DOGE Definition: The chief magistrate in the former Italian republics of Venice and Genoa, known as the Doge (pronounced DOZH), held a complex and multifaceted role. Fun fact, Coins minted by the republic often featured the Doge's image or an abbreviation of their name. This served as a symbolic stamp of approval and helped ensure public trust in the currency.
Today, Dogecoin remains a prominent cryptocurrency, though its price is significantly lower than its 2021 highs it may be repeating its historical gains very soon. Whether it's intention was to be a serious contender in the future or a lasting internet joke, DOGE's place in crypto history is secure.
What do the charts say
Looking at the all time history of this coin we can see that the price action has created two previous run ups producing over 21,000% gains between 2015 and 2017 and again reaching for the sky and touching over 50,000% gains during the 2020/2021 crypto bull market.
Each cycle DOGE has nearly mimicked its prior cycles bear market, accumulation period and eventually, a mind melting bull run. As you can see on the chart we have completed the bear market and are currently breaking out of accumulation.
My personal Targets for DOGE are $4.20, $10.10 and $12.00. If Doge did just half of the gains it did last run it would reach a total of over $12. With rumors shooting around the internet that Elon may add DOGE as the local currency for the X platform and this being a real possibility, I think it is counterproductive to think these type of gains are not in the cards.
Much profits,
Savvy
Tesla - Triangle and -33% drop!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
With Tesla stock breaking above previous resistance in 2019 and coming back to retest it in 2020, this stock then took off and created one of the most insane rallies which I have ever seen. At the moment though, Tesla is consolidating in a descending triangle formation and there is a high chance that Tesla will again come back to retest the lower support at $110 for a third time.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
$TSLA Contrarian Bounce Against the Market Grain.$TSLA:1D
Price breaks out of downtrend at +3SD (190.79).
Potential ‘gap-fill’ up to 206.
Bullish price to RSI divergence. (yellow lines)
Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high and I don’t believe this level of trend strength can be maintained at these levels of elevation for a very extended period of time.
Significant inverse correlation to relevant index ETF ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) makes NASDAQ:TSLA a theoretically contrarian trade for me assuming I have a bearish sentiment on broader tech sector as represented by $QQQ. Given how beaten up the stock has been I believe it could rise against a falling tech sector, at some point over the next 90 days.
First target is 198 level, second target is filling the gap up to 206 and the third and final ‘reach target’ would be the 0.5 retrace at 222.60. I would be happy with 2/3 of these being completed.
If the trade went against me, I see the worst case, downside, scenario as a further spill to the 1.382 (147.56) with a drop to the mid 160’s as more likely in the event of a downturn. My thesis is long but outlining the downside scenario is an important part of managing risk for me.
Happy trading.