When capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above). On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV),...
For the past decade, decision-makers in major banks and multinational companies have been focusing their attention on one of the hottest "growth frontiers": emerging markets. During much of the 1980's the prospects in most emerging countries were quite bleak: the debt crisis, inflation and domestic political turbulence. Then a number of "economic miracles" began...
TVC:DXY looks like it wants to go back to 102, almost 103. Downtrend was broken with gusto; multiple bullish candles to confirm the change in trend on the monthly chart. Looks primed and ready to hit 102/103 and most likely surpass those levels after contending with it a second time. This will most likely be a headwind for emerging markets. So it may be...
When will the sonar break symmetry? The sound is harsh, telling us to go away, disgesting information and giving a message back to more overleveraged markets!
Been accumulating this ETF for a while and banking a decent monthly divi. Bullish set ups continue to form. Yesterday we saw a bull flag break and an inverse H&S will be confirmed above 38. Targets are 39 area
I've been bullish this ETF for a little while and it has been consolidating and building nicely. There is another bullish break of a flag - still looking for 38.50 target initially. Been paid a nice cheeky monthly dividend while we wait.
Earlier I posted maps for EEM consolidation (see related). This last sharp move makes me thinking of a completion of the correction. Then we got the contracting flat WXY. Triangle could be the next alternative ABCDE. Target will be at 75 then.
Stocks are at elevated levels and I'd say in bubble territory. But in my opinion the true bubble starts now, as no matter what happens now Central banks will try to prop it up. Essentially the biggest risk is in bonds and currencies, not everything else. I do believe there will be a big sell off at some point and I do believe that over the next 6-18 months we will...
EMUSDT Buying around 0.0038 - 0.00347 1 - 0.004125 2 - 0.004480 3 - 0.004866 Stop, fixing below 0.00335 ✅ f you like what I do, put 👍 and subscribe Waiting for your comment, what do you think about this?
Up 1.8%, the breakout here is clear for the EM as I called 3 weeks ago. This was assisted with Asia slowing in 2017/18. Asia looks better at this point because Asia technically slowed down before the West. !THD and !IDX are good longs and I will be taking them. 13:19:40 (UTC) Tue Jul 28, 2020
EMBTC Buying in the area 0.000000494 - 0.000000435 Goal 1 - 0.000000545 Goal 2 - 0.000000670 Goal 3 - 0.000000810 Breakdown 0.0000004, price may fall below If you like what I do, put 👍 and subscribe Waiting for your comment, what do you think about this?
With economic uncertainty continuing to grip the financial markets, the US Dollar continues to be in play. As global investors flock to US assets, both stocks and bonds, in search of above average returns and safety, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against its G10 and EM counterparts. As this trend continues, a key level to watch for the Greenback is its...
As volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM)...
As market volatility has come back with a vengeance and the US Dollar continues to remain strong, one EM currency that has been hit particularly hard this year has been the Brazilian Real ($USDBRL). Sluggish growth forecasts, coupled with waning support for the Brazilian President has sent the Brazilian Real to its lowest level of the year thus far. The sharp...
EEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me. Short this. Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40. The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :) From a TA standpoint, let's review. Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading...
Its not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a...
Unsurprisingly, similar to the currency, the outperformance of the Chinese stock market vs. the S&P 500 falters when the Chinese currency can't be sustained. Not quite as direct of a relationship, but this clearly affects emerging markets, which are highly indebted to the dollar. This is visible if you go back further as well - the broad rolling emerging market...