Brazil is at make or break levelsWill either rocket downward after breaking resistance or rebound here. Fundamentally, this looks to be more negative based on what is happening in the world of currency.
Em
Swing trade Gold EM warning and revived Syria tensions may cause gold to catch a bid after massive decline.
EmerCoin VS Bitcoin IndecisionSince 2nd of July, when EmerCoin has reached strong psychological resistance at 50k satoshis high, price has been correcting down. It has reached 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 40k satoshis, but up until now failed to close below.
The current spike down, shows that price has bounced off the 88.6% Fibs as well as 200 Moving Average. Therefore, as the price stays above 38.6k satoshis, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, break and close above 43.6k satoshis resistance is required in order to confirm the uptrend.
But on the other hand if EMC/BTC will close below 38.6k satoshis support, further correction down could take place. Price would probably drop towards one of the next Fibonacci support levels. Either 36k, 32k or even down to previous low at 27k satoshis.
China's dollar funding problem & why their currency is devaluingThis is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com
Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold, copper, and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016.
USDARS: Local top spotted, sell your dollar bills...$USDARS should retrace from here, or at least stop rallying like crazy every week...
This will bring some relief in local equities, I've been entering some positions the last two days, in my local savings account.
For my fellow Argentinians: I'd reccomend to look into selling $USD if you own any as cash savings, and investing in either p2p lending, equities, or bonds, and/or gold/silver.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
USDCLP. Chilean peso could weaken againThe 2-year lasting correction could be over soon.
Candlesticks in wave Y chart the shape of ending diagonal, which is strong reversal sign.
Wave Y is already equal to wave W as it means that the USD drop was sufficient.
The former major top at the 732 is the minimum target.
See related idea in Turkish Lira, it could be similar.
USOIL: Long term and intermediate term viewI'm holding oil longs, and exposure to oil via correlated equities, and looking to ride the upcoming trend. It is likely to see a breakout in the short term, this might ignite a monthly, and potentially quarterly uptrend continuation signal. This falls in line with what the quarterly downtrend suggested, time and price wise. The price target was exhausted ahead of time, and after that we saw a strong rally, and for a long time, we have been in a consolidation and accumulation phase. The expected time to consolidate before rallying was reached now, so, it is highly probable to see a massive rally in oil from here onwards.
Daily charts show an already active uptrend, and a continuation signal after a pullback. Bears might get squeezed in little time. The potential upside is huge, so, don't miss it. If you didn't buy oil yet, you can try buying on dips, or at market open, and averaging in for a couple days with a wide stop under the recent lows. Energy stocks are also a good idea, you would have to do your own research here, but, focus on companies that have strong correlation to oil prices.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
TECHNICALS | EEM False BreakEmerging Markets has made a false break as the Trump train reversed, but as DXY has found support, it seems most likely this is an ideal entry to play EM back towards the middle of its range!
TECHNICALS | EEM Breaking-OutEEM looks to be breaking-out beyond technical resistance and through the top of the value area as indicated by the distribution on the left axis.
EEM/SPY vs EUR IntermarketThere's a decent correlation between EM currencies and the Euro. Whilst EM equities take a cue from their currencies. Hence, this chart might appear unrelated at first, but the EEM/SPY ratio might yield clues on the euro...
ENZL: Compelling top spottedWe can go short ENZL at market, and aim for a significantly large target.
Stops should be above this week's high (trading range).
Expecting to see a sharp decline to ensue here in the intermediate term.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
The Tesla unicornSolar stocks such as SUNE, SCTY have been hammered real hard for the past 3 weeks. Tesla is not a unicorn immune to the global deflationary forces.
Like many, Tesla relies on cheap debt to finance its research and development. This isn't sustainable when Janet Yellen is no longer supporting the market with Quantitative easing (QE). It is also on the verge of breaking down from the rising wedge developed since November 2013.
Stop loss: 236.72
Take Profit: 132.02
Entry: 212.94
Overall, I'm still bullish in the long term prospect of Tesla and at $120 it is almost certainly a good buy.
