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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

NZDUSD Likely To Decline Further Towards 61 Cents! Have a look at the snapshot above. It represents the nearby support and resistance levels on monthly TF of NZDUSD. A convincing close of monthly candle below 0.64000 would likely confirm probable bearish continuation until 0.61000 where the next support lies. Looking at the main chart, there is a nice descending channel continuation! Should the monthly candle and this week's candle close below 0.64000 we can take this pair SHORT to target 0.61000 level. The fundamental outlook too is against the KIWI as global slowdown due to trade war is affecting the KIWI. With the Tradewar far from over and RBNZ leaning towards slashing rates again to boost the economy, a visit to 0.61000 is highly likely. This just represents my outlook on this pair, shall a trade opportunity arise i will post it in a new thread.
Short
by FX618Analysis
3
SAFEHAVEN Demand Would Likely Propel YELLOW METAL To $1750.00!Last year it was highly anticipated that the yellow metal would break the years long held trading range and make a new high. Well all that is unraveling pretty quickly to say the least, as the trade war enters its second year with no end in sight. The two year long and ongoing trade war between the worlds two largest economies has led to fear of recession in the U.S as the yield curve inversion getting deeper and deeper. In EUROPE (germany) a technical recession has already happened with the manufacturing activity declining two consecutive times. Trump is hell bent on reducing imports from china and making the USD weak for more competitiveness in regards to exports. The FED is already feeling the pressure of the tradewar but they keep insisting that they would keeping use\ing ''wait and see approach'' for interest rate cut or hold. TRUMP wants the FED to cut rates so as to make the USD weak. Major central banks have already started easing around the globe so as to combat the effects of the trade war with exception of the FED. Markets are pricing in the FED would reduce the rates by 120BP by end of 2020 but as of the moment the U.S economy seems to be in a pretty good state and FED are pleased with the current interest rates. However with the trade war's no end in sight, the U.S economy might start to loose steam and print negative/declining data in the coming months. If this happens the FED will start easing making the USD plunge against the SAFEHAVEN pairs. Many like to BUY and HOLD the USD because of its SAFEHAVEN status, therefore even if the FED cuts the interest rate to boost the economy in the future, the USD would not fall that much unless the economic data keeps on declining or a recession happens! Other SAFEHAVENS include the JPY &CHF currencies. These two FX currencies are the go to when RISK OFF mood dominates the market . However there is a catch behind buying and holding these two currencies. The central banks of both these countries (SNB & BOJ) prefer their currency to remain weak so as to keep their exports cheap and competitive. For this reason the central banks of both these FX currencies observe and act if needed to keep the currency from sliding or appreciating too much. All in all the go to SAFEHAVEN currencies have limited gain as their central banks tends to intervene. Talking about the YELLOW METAL, Who has the power to intervene here? practically no one,as its purely based on supply and demand characteristics and due to this there is a high potential of appreciation for yellow metal in RISK OFF environment. Since the beginning of the year, the price has sky rocketed and there is still a very likely high chance that it would keep climbing upwards. A better and safer way to trade this precious metal is step by step based on breach of certain resistance levels and the fundamental outlook of the health of global economy. Here in the main chart we see can the green horizontal lines which represent resistance levels and red horizontal lines which represent support, drawn from the monthly charts. Currently the price is stopped climbing at 1550.00 which is a concrete resistance yet to be broken on monthly TF. Should 1550.00 break (the monthly candle close above 1550.00) the next target would be 1750.00. Its looking highly likely that this level would be broken, at the moment the price is in consolidative phase as there is a hope of a trade deal looming. But markets are too smart to believe TRUMP and CHINA! Because just like before,this period represents the CALM before the STORM. In the coming weeks we would be able to see how are the negotiations proceeding and is a disagreement likely to happen again or not? unless a complete trade deal is struck and held by each side, we could see the yellow metal ascend pretty fast to 1750.00 and potentially beyond. For this particular scenario, we need to wait for the monthly candle to close above 1550.00 and then its safe and suggested to go LONG to target 1750.00 This just represents my outlook and analysis on this pair. shall a trade opportunity appear i will post it in a new thread. Cheers
TVC:GOLDLong
by FX618Analysis
AUSSIE Has Bottomed! For Now Atleast. Might Aim For 0.69500 Have a look at the snapshot above for AUDUSD weekly TF. It shows the support and resistance levels represented by red horizontal lines. At the moment the price HIT 0.67000 level and is bouncing around near that level, suggesting a BOTTOM or The support has been respected (well at least for now). The main chart, shows AUDUSD on daily TF where as you can see the daily candles have started to form a range. If this range gets broken the price would aim for daily 50 EMA. Now for this to happen we need the daily candle to breakout and close above the range (note: 4hr candle would provide an early signal but there are high chances that it may be a fakeout!). After the breakout happens and gets confirmed we can opt to take this pair LONG and target the daily 50 EMA. However trading such a volatile pair on daily TF is risky as it would trigger the SL or TP quickly due to unexpected news in the current fundamental market. Therefore sticking to the weekly TF is the best option and safest based on the current market situation. For those of you who are eager to take this trade on daily TF to target the DAILY EMA, please exercise caution and do it at your own risk! Now getting back to the technical picture, we need to see the daily candle close convincingly above the daily 50 EMA so we can opt to take this pair LONG towards the 0.695000 level where the descending line of the channel is present plus the WEEKLY 50 EMA. Fundamentally, we have seen the escalation of the tradewar which has heavy effects on the AUSSIE. However we have also seen that a china is ready to start talks again with the U.S giving some hopes to the market. Due to this reason i feel the AUSSIE can target 0.69500 and then from thereafter the free fall would begin again. Shall there be any updates about the trade entry, i will provide them in a new post. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY Weekly TF DEATH CROSS Confirmed! JPY Appreciation LikelyWhat is a Death Cross? The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock/Currency's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s. Because a death cross is a long-term indicator, as opposed to many short-term chart patterns such as the doji, it carries more weight for investors concerned about locking in gains before a new bear market gets underway. An increase in volume typically accompanies the appearance of the death cross. Source: www.investopedia.com Now as the definition of this rare EMA crossover has been defined as above, we can technically expect JPY appreciation in the near future, which might be sustained due to many fundamental factors. If this holds right, we could not only see USDJPY Plummet over the coming years but also many JPY related currencies particularly the EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY. The above snapshot is from USDJPY weekly TF which shows the occurrence of death cross signal, followed by continued decline of the USDJPY and recovery (golden cross). During the whole turmoil and the very start of the financial crisis back then, the death cross gave a strong signal of impending recession! The golden cross in 2013 was the sign of period of recovery in the markets as risk appetite returned and GOLD fell from multi year tops. A week ago the death cross has happened again. In the main chart as it could be seen, the EMA used are 50 and 200. A crossover has already been confirmed at this point, but ask yourself this; could this be a beginning of a long term downtrend? The answer to this question lies in the fundamental factors that are currently dictating the markets. The major factor here which is held accountable is the TRADE WAR!. For past one year this battle between the world's two largest economy has been going on with no end in sight, Furthermore things just seems to get worse as TRUMP is hell bent on reducing china imports into the U.S. The trade war has lead to the following things which has completely reshaped the financial markets: 1) U.S yield curve inversion has sparked the fear of recession forcing many to retreat to safehavens 2) Global slowdown resulting from the trade war, has forced many central banks to start an easing cycle of cutting interests rates 3) TRUMP is forcing The FED to cut interest rates aggressively in order to make USD weak and boost the economy FED has now completely changed their course to easing with predictions coming for a 120BP cuts by the of 2020. Should the FED cut rates to support the economy from a possible recession we could see the USDJPY plummet whereas should they keep defying TRUMP and hold the rates steady or cut less, we could see this pair being stubborn to drop. All in all its looking more likely that the FED would keep easing slowly which would see JPY appreciate. In other perspective, A global slowdown would hit NZD, AUD & EUR to such an extent that the JPY would gain stronger ground against all these three pairs compared to any other currency. This is just my outlook on the JPY futures based on current and past fundamentals and as of now all things are pointing towards JPY appreciation. A trade entry could only be made based on technical picture in correlation with the fundamental one. Currently the price is held within a long term triangle, once breached we could make an entry and aim for 101.00. Shall there be any updates i will provide them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
89 EMA or $10,000... which is propping us up?It might appear as though BTC is repeatedly testing the $10,000 psychological level, and of course it has. But when plotting entry/exit trading points, you should be aware of where BTC is finding true support... For the past six weeks BTC support has very reliably been the daily 89 EMA. Since we topped out on 26th June we have entered into a bullish pennant, between the 89 EMA and a downward sloping resistance line. The 21 EMA has been a clear indicator of if we are bullish or bearish within the pennant. In the next month, though likely much sooner, BTC will have to decide which direction it wants to break out of the pennant . We are due a test of the 21 EMA on the weekly, which would bring us down to around $9000... if that holds, the likelihood of a strong move upwards and the bull run finding renewed strength is greatly increased. If the weekly 21 EMA fails, well you shouldn't need me to tell you what a strong indicator of the trend changing that would be. Here is the link for my free EMA/SMA indicator , offering key areas of potential strong support & resistance . Also save crucial space on your Trading View chart by utilising my free RSI and StochRSI indicator which overlays both in a clear and helpful fashion. Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by BCryptological
Bitcoin - BTC/USD - 1H-MY OPINION BULLISH ABOVE 11,504.60 USD -MY TARGETS 11,962.70 USD (+0.98%) 12,330.20 USD (+4.09%) -TECHNICAL INDICATORS BULLISH 44% BEARISH 17% 39% EQUAL -MY ANALYSIS All elements being clearly bullish, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions (at the time of purchase) on Bitcoin - BTC/USD as long as the price remains well above 11,504.60 USD. The buyers” bullish objective is set at 11,962.70 USD. A bullish break in this resistance would boost the bullish momentum. The buyers could then target the resistance located at 12,330.20 USD. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at 12,932.90 USD. Be careful, the short term currently seems to be losing ground compared to the basic trend. Longer time units should be analysed to identify possible overbought items that could be a sign of a possible short-term correction. -Quotes The Bitcoin - BTC/USD rating is 11,846.25 USD. The price is lower by -1.19% since the last closing with the lowest point at 11,781.19 USD and the highest point at 12,038.42 USD. The deviation from the price is +0.55% for the low point and -1.60% for the high point. -Technical: Technical analysis of Bitcoin - BTC/USD in 1H shows a strongly overall bullish trend. The signals given by moving averages are 82.14% bullish. This strongly bullish trend seems to be running out of steam given the signals being given by short-term moving averages. The Indicators scanner does not detect any result on moving averages that would impact this trend. In fact, only 8 technical indicators out of 18 studied are currently positioned bullish. RSI (14): 48.00 MACD (12,26,9): 18.8400 Directional Movement: -4.40 AROON (14): 21.42 DEMA (21): 11,849.97 Parabolic SAR (0,02-0,02-0,2): 11,552.10 Elder Ray (13): -24.96 Super Trend (3,10): 11,589.52 Zig ZAG (10): 11,818.09 VORTEX (21): 0.9900 Stochastique (14,3,5): 62.25 TEMA (21): 11,869.13 Williams %R (14): -37.62 Chande Momentum Oscillator (20): 252.38 Repulse (5,40,3): 0.5500 ROCnROLL: 1 TRIX (15,9): 0.0200 Courbe Coppock: 3.71 ENJOY GUYS <3
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by REDAEL
Sell NZD/USD at 0.6705 – Westpac Analysts at Westpac are recommending to sell NZD/USD pair at 0.6705 levels for the target price of 0.6500, while maintaining trailing a stop loss of 0.6800. Key Quotes “Rationale: We expect RBNZ to cut OCR by 25bp to 1.25% on 7 August, and signal potential for more. We expect a follow-up cut in November to 1.0%, with a risk this is delivered in September, and the OCR ultimately falls below 1.0%. Domestic activity is weaker than the RBNZ had forecast. Markets are pricing 20bp of easing in August, and 42bp by November, implying markets should fall further if our forecasts prove correct. NZ-US yield spreads have explained much of the NZD’s recent gains, but they should soon become a headwind: markets have priced in plenty for the Fed (100bp) but arguably not enough for the RBNZ. Technically, NZD/USD’s 3c rise since May looks corrective, and may be giving way to a revisit of May’s 0.6500 low.” www.fxstreet.com Above is the link to the original article. Shall there be any updates i will post them in the thread below. INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 0.6700 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 0.68000 TAKE PROFIT: 0.65000 RR: 1:1.9 TYPE: SHORT
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURCHF Likely To Fall Further After Support & Trendline Break!Oh make no mistake, technically most of the EUR related are starting to show a strong bearish pattern . EURUSD could tumble to 1.09000 level in the coming months even on the back of a weaker USD!. The above link is shows the analysis behind the EURNZD which has a potential to drop . However since many central banks are shifting towards easing, typically in this scenario fundamentally makes the SAFEHAVEN FX currencies perform the best. CHF being one of the SAFEHAVEN alongside the JPY in my view would be best performers against the EUR in the coming months! Have a look at the main chart weekly TF chart of the EURCHF. The horizontal lines are concrete support and resistance taken from the monthly TF. At the moment i am awaiting the monthly candle to close beneath the orange support located at 1.11000 level for added confluence. Furthermore, we have a long term trendline which has been violated on a weekly TF, for added confirmation that is why its advisable to wait for the monthly candle to close below orange line. This would confirm the broken support turned resistance and channel has been officially broken! The next support lies at 1.06000 level, where the price could potentially head towards. This seems like a big PIP move but if you look at the fundamental factors, we are seeing the ECB shifting their monetary policy to accommodate the changes which would likely result in EURO depreciation over long term. I am seeing the monthly would close comfortably beneath the support by the end of this month and then its advisable to execute the trade SHORT with the target of 1.06000 and RR of 1:1. This just represent my analysis on this pair and i feel this a high probability trade setup in play. shall there be any trade entries i would post them in a new post.
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTCUSD Weekly TF Analysis From FX Trader Point Of View!My interest in cryptocurrencies is second to none, however i thought of executing my technical analysis that i perform on Actively Traded FX pairs to BITCOIN. First of all i am a SWING trader, meaning i analyse my charts from monthly TF down upto daily or 4 hourly. My strategy relies on finding concrete support and resistance levels from the monthly charts to finding supporting technical patterns on lower TF to add to my confluence. Here on the BTCUSD chart the monthly chart does not give any info what so ever, so i decided to look at the weekly TF. The first thing i did was to plot all the concrete support and resistance levels from the weekly TF (have a look at the main chart). At the moment of writing the price is in between the 10,000 support and 12,000 on weekly TF. Adding to this, the price seems to be capped by a descending trendline which is preventing the bitcoin bulls from pushing higher. currently the market is giving me neutral bias as i feel the cryptos are mostly driven by technical trading rather than fundamental ones with exceptions of breaking news which affects cryptos immediately without any warning. So below are the two possible scenarios which should potentially take place for the price to make its next move, be it UP/DOWN 1) FOR A BULLISH SCENARIO The price as explained is capped by a descending trendline. So for the price to push higher not only must the trendline break (weekly candle closes outside the trendline) but also the 12,000 resistance level needs to be broken (weekly candle should close above 12,000 level). If this takes place we have confirmed the trendline and resistance breakout. so finally for the trade entry, its advisable to await slight retracement before executing a LONG trade to target the next resistance that lies at 14,000 level 2) FOR A BEARISH SCENARIO Have a look at the image above. its a daily chart of BTCUSD which shows the price confined in a well held triangle supported by an ascending trendline. For the bearish scenario to take place, the price needs to breach the ascending trendline (weekly candle must close outside the trendline). Once this has happened we can wait for the price to retrace and enter a SHORT trade to target the next support that lies at 8,000 level IN ALL TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIO THE RISK TO REWARD RATIO IS SUGGESTED TO BE 1:1 WITH THE POTENTIAL STOP LOSS PLACED JUST ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LEVEL OR BELOW THE SUPPORT LEVEL. IN FX trading i do a combination of fundamental and technical analysis which gives me an extra added confluence to validate my trade, however in this case, the pure technical price action picture is telling me the above two possible scenarios. if you notice, trading with risk management is about taking out the support or resistance levels one at a time rather than aiming for 20,000 or 40,000 impulsively! With Bitcoin or other crypto market being so volatile, in my view its best to take this approach so as to preserve your capitals. Hope some of you will find my outlook helpful and i will certainly in the future think about adding cryptos to my trading portfolio. cheers and trade safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FX618Analysis
Ascending Channel+H&S Pattern In Favor Of EURNZD Bears! Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of EURNZD pair. From here its clearly visible that the price is confined in an ascending channel which has been held on numerous occasions. However at the moment the price seems to be too aggressive to the downside and has potentially violated the channel pending today's weekly candle close! The four horizontal red lines represent solid support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. Just below the trendline there lies a psychological 1.65000 support level , which in this case is a must to be broken level in order to confirm a bearish outlook. For this level to be broken i would personally prefer the monthly candle to close below 1.65000 level . Furthermore, there is an almost complete H & S pattern on the chart , which would be complete when the trendline/channel breaks together with the 1.65000 level. In this case the potential 1.65000 turned resistance would also act as the neckline of the H & S . So to put all this together in favor of the bears there 3 concrete confluence factors to take this pair towards the next support that is present at 1.58000! Fundamentally the Euro is weak at the moment and is predicted to get weak in the coming months, whereas the NZD shows a mixed outlook. So putting all this together the probability of this pair breaking down is HIGH. Shall there be any updates regarding the trade entries i will post them in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this current pair
Short
by FX618Analysis
A Weaker EURO Could Send FIBER Towards 1.09000 Level !Have a look at the main weekly TF chart which shows the price of EURUSD confined in a long term held and respected wedge ! The blue horizontal lines are the nearby support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF . Several months ago this pair formed a bearish H & S pattern on the weekly chart which was broken as the price started to accelerate downwards partly due the FED being hawkish as they raised the Interest rates this making the USD more stronger against the basket of major currencies. When the price broke the neckline of the pattern where also the main support now turned resistance was present (1.14500) , the price should technically HIT 1.09000 where the next concrete support is present. However many months have passed by the price is typically rangebound with 1.145000 level now turned into a concrete resistance. At the moment most of the major central banks have started to ease their monetary policy, most notably the FED as a 25BP rate cut is already priced into the market which would likely take place at the end of this month. With the trade war effects already visible across the world it has certainly sent fears of an impending US recession as the yield curve stays inverted. Therefore the markets are largely expecting the FED to ease further in 2020 too. So all this theoretically should make the EURUSD spike higher but practically there has been little impact from the BULLS. While other currencies such as the SAFE HAVEN pairs (USDCHF, USDJPY) have all taken the HIT and talk about GOLD which has broken multi year records. THEREFORE THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS: WHY IS THE EURUSD SO RESISTANT AND STRUGGLING TO CLIMB FURTHER BEYOND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 1.15? The answer to this question is not so complicated but the consequences are certainly bad for the EURUSD! First of all USD is still the world's reserve currency and the demand for it wont fade that easily. To add to this for many, the USD is a SAFEHAVEN compared to the EUR. Furthermore, if the FED eases their monetary policy their interest rate differentials will still be higher compared to the EUR which inturn would make the demand for the greenback stronger. Thirdly, the EUROZONE economy is not doing so well for the past months as most of the fundamental data as below the expectations As the ECB president mario draghi term comes to an end, the new to be appointed former president of the IMF could change the course of this pair in the coming year. But as for now i feel this pair would likely HIT 1.0900 which is a concrete support and after that it might rise further depending on the economic and monetary outlook in the EUROZONE and The U.S.
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
LTCUSD 1H ATR STRATEGYStep #1: Make Sure Your Chart Setup Configuration Looks the Same as our Price Chart Step #2: Wait for ATR Indicator to break above 20-EMA Step #3: Check the Price Chart to Ensure the ATR Breakout is followed by a Price Breakout Step #4: Enter Short Once we break Below the Low of the Breakout Candle Step #5: Your Take Profit Target should be Equal to the ATR indicator value Step #5: You determine your own TP strategy Step #6: Place the Stop Loss above the Breakout Candle High Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade. Use the same rules – but with the only difference that you need a bullish breakout candle – for a BUY trade.
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by Tradingstrategyguides
4
Monthly TF Perspective Of Yellow Metal. Door Open to Test 1550!This is a monthly TF analysis of the yellow metal. The main chart shows numerous horizontal lines, these are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly charts. This year many people predicted the yellow metal to break out of its long term held range and it happened! After 1370 level was broken, the next hurdle was present at 1430 which held against a very bullish pressure from the yellow metal. So in short 1430 is not a new resistance just formed! it has been held on numerous occasions and broken too. Therefore from a technical perspective GOLD is still indeed bullish however just to be safe, it is advisable for the monthly candle to close above 1430.00 before going LONG to target 1550 where the next resistance is present Any trade deal between US and China if agreed it could take the yellow metal down where another long term held ascending trendline is present. Until this trendline is not broken we are still bullish on gold! Another thing to consider is that at the moment the price is confined in a triangle practically preventing the price from further climbing. Should a strong bullish candle close above 1430 this would not only confirm resistance break but also the triangle/trendline break too. Fundamentally, the factors are in favour of yellow metal appreciation! First of all the tradewar is having effects on the economy and many central banks have started to cut rates with the FED thinking of cutting rates too and turning dovish in a surprising manner in the last couple of FOMC meeting. Fear of recession are also alive and well as the US yield curve has inverted again. In this classic scenario the safe haven currencies such as CHF and JPY appreciate but so does GOLD Therefore it remains to be seen what develops in the coming months but a test of 1550 level is very much on the cards!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by FX618Analysis
1
WTI (USOIL) Might Target $70 Amid Iran Tension & Supply Jitters!The 3 horizontal lines visible in the main weekly chart of WTI are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly TF. Currently the price is at 60.00 and there is a descending trendline preventing the price from climbing further. From a technical perspective, once this trendline breaks, the price on the monthly charts must close above 63.00 concrete resistance. This is just to add gain further confluence and confidence in our potential trade. Once the monthly candle closes above 63.00 we could wait for the price to retrace slightly before executing a LONG trade to target 70.00! On a fundamental perspective there are 2 factors in our favor. First one is the IRAN tensions with the US and now potentially U.K. US putting sanctions on iranian OIL is bullish for the WTI and the tensions is just further strengthening this aspect. Secondly, the storm in the gulf is limiting the drilling activities which is also bullish for the OIL. Lastly the the deal that is binding OPEC & NON-OPEC countries seem to be going okay so far as they all want the price of OIL to rise. One thing that is bearish for the WTI at the moment seems the ongoing tradewar which if no deal could be made, the demand for OIL would decrease! So it remains to be seen in the coming weeks how the situation develops. Shall there be a trade entry i will post in a new post.
TVC:USOILLong
by FX618Analysis