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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EURCHF Needs to Break WEEKLY 50 EMA To Target 1.11500 !With the H&S Pattern completed sometime ago, this pair Hit the support that lied in the region of 1.11500, from there onwards it started a rally that went back and tested the neckline of the H&S pattern. With the eurozone economy slowing down, we can expect the price to drop again towards the lower end of the range. To do this, the weekly candle must breach the weekly 50 EMA and close below it. After that we have enough confirmation that the price is likely headed back southwards.
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURJPY (CROSS) Awaits Channel Or Trendline Breakout On Weekly TFThe CROSS (EURJPY) is currently confined in a descending channel on weekly timeframe that has been respected on numerous occasions and there also happens to be an ascending trendline that seems to be holding this pair. Have a look at the main chart of weekly timeframe to observe these two scenarios! Now thats the technical picture which is suggesting the price could breakout anywhere be it upwards by breaking the channel or downwards by breaking the trendline. The fundamental picture is a tricky one to predict where this pair might trend but odds are slightly with the break to the downside, as the slowdown in EUROPE continues and the SAFEHAVEN yen demand will be there against the EUR! So to trade this pair, its advisable to wait for the weekly candle to convincingly close outside the descending channel or beneath the trendline to confirm a breakout. The red line drawn on the main chart represent the nearby target levels if the price breakouts from either side! This is just the current outlook on this pair and shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post. Hope you find this analysis useful, if you do please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want more future SWING trade analysis and alerts. cheers
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD Confined In Triangle. Awaits Breakout Momentum!The main chart shows the price is confined inside a triangle and a breakout to either side might occur. The red lines are concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the Monthly charts. Should the breakout occur, we can expect the price to test either side of the red lines. Fundamentally the AUD would appreciate against the EUR due to trade deal almost being sorted out and EURZONE growth deteriorating further. But it remains to be seen what happens. Currently i am already LONG on AUDUSD (have a look at the attached link below) Therefore i can not take this pair SHORT OR LONG as the active trade of AUDUSD has slight strong correlation with EURAUD. Always manage your risks well. If you prefer to trade this pair please do so at your own risk but its suggested to trade once the triangle has been breached. Hope you found the analysis useful, if so please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me for future updates and posts. cheers
by FX618Analysis
OIL Rally Could Break USDCAD Channel & Target 1.29000!With broad USD strength evident as the US-SINO Trade deal nears, we might see OIL prices gain strength as well as global slowdown fears slowly subside. Moreover, OPEC and The US controlling the production of OIL by imposing sanctions and other measures we could see the demand for OIL increase soon. Here in the main chart, we could see the price on the weekly chart confined in an ascending channel supported by the weekly 50 EMA as dynamic support. Should the weekly candle close below the weekly 50 EMA and breach the lower end of the channel we could see the price head for the next support that lies in the region of 1.29000 supported by another ascending trendline! Should the criteria meet, i will post the trade details in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this pair. If you find the analysis useful please drop a LIKE and FOLLOW me for future posts. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
YELLOW METAL Might Break The Neckline Of H&S Amid RISK ON MarketMarkets are in the RISK ON mood which usually puts pressure on safe assets and currencies including the yellow metal. Here we see a HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern on the verge of completion! The neckline will likely be broken soon enough as the risk ON markets dominates the appetite of the investors. Once the neckline gets broken we should see the selling pressure building up towards the next ascending trendline support that lies in the region of 1260.00 level. I am already short on this pair with my entry being at 1295.000 level , TP at 1267 & SL at 1321.00 My trade that is short has been active since one month and once the neckline breaks we can expect the TP levels to be reaching soon enough. This is just an outlook behind the current yellow metal state and where its heading, if you want to enter i suggest you do that at your own risk as the price has drifted away from our entry level and the RISK TO REWARD RATIO will NOT be 1:1 in this case. Nonetheless its a very high probability setup both technically and fundamentally. If you like my analysis please drop me a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more future analysis. cheers and thanks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
EURUSD H & S Pattern to Continue after recovery towards 1.14500!HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WAS ALREADY COMPLETED SOME MONTHS AGO ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS! Since then the price has been dropping towards the target and the next support that lies in the region of 1.1000. At the moment the EUR Is too oversold which is also evident on the RSI of daily charts (bullish divergence), The SPOT would likely recover some of its losses until the weekly 50 EMA where the price has been rejected on more than two occasions! It will be more beneficial for the bears to wait until the price hits 1.14500 level where the weekly 50 EMA lies. Once the price HITS it will a good level to execute a SHORT trade with target being 1.09000 level and STOP LOSS set at 1:1 risk to reward ratio. For the BULLS the short term trade setup should target the 1.14500 after where its suggested to close the trade as the selling pressure would resume massively towards the 1.09000 target! Fundamentals are also on bears side as the EU (italy) is on the verge of recession and amid slowing eurozone economy might not help the EUR at all. As for the USD, the trade deal is nearly complete which would initiate the risk ON appetite in the market making the demand for the greenback high. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS AND ITS NOT A TRADE SIGNAL FROM ME. ANY DECISION IS SOLELY BASED ON YOUR FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL JUDGEMENT OF THE MARKET. I AM A BEAR ON THIS TRADE AND ONCE THE WEEKLY 50 EMA IS REACHED I WILL PLACE A SHORT TRADE. I WILL UPDATE THE CRITERIA FOR TRADE ENTRY IN A NEW POST. PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND FOLLOW ME IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN MY IDEAS. THANK YOU
Short
by FX618Analysis
POSSIBLE LONG POSITION:USD/CAD RANGE.Here you can see my technical analysis on USDCAD for the week ahead, there seems there may be a range forming between a recent high and a resistance that has been tested many times which has given a strong resistance - in this case I believe that it will have turned into a support bouncing off the trend line I have fond on 4H and the support/resistance I have found on all time frames. in terms of indicators the 8,5 EMA'S I have are soon to cross over on 15m, 30m and 5m which shows a reversal in price instead of a retracement which supports my idea of a range. additionally, bearish momentum is slowing down and is in oversold territory and it moving averages crossing over - once again indicating a reversal. I have showed my long position with TP and SL visible thanks for reading - please leave ideas and feedback
Long
by h-82929
YELLOW METAL Looking TO Complete H & S Pattern On DAILY Chart! The above snapshot represents the daily chart of the yellow metal. it can be clearly seen that the head and shoulder formation might just be about to completed soon! The main chart (4hr) shows the channel has been breached with EMA 50 adding further confluence to downward move which could target the potential neckline of the overall H & S formation. Once the overall pattern is complete, its safe to say that this pair can potentially drop towards to 1267.000 level where the long term weekly ascending trendline lies!. Looking at the big picture, i am overall LONG on GOLD, however i would only enter LONG once the price hits the 1270.000 area so the better risk to reward ratio is by my side. At the moment i am short on this metal. If you would to take short this yellow metal based on your own comfort and analysis i suggest the following trade entries: ENTRY LEVEL: CURRENT PRICE 1300.000-1307.000 STOP LOSS: 1330.000 (ABOVE THE RIGHT SHOULDER) TAKE PROFIT: 1267-1270 LEVELS PLEASE FOLLOW THE ATTACHED LINK IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO TAKE THIS TRADE. I WILL BE UPDATING ANY CHANGES IN THE LINK ABOVE. cheers
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY, LOONIE Might Break The Channel to Test 84.3000 Vs YEN Once the channel breaks together with the daily 50 EMA, we can expect the price to go north and test the weekly 50 EMA which lies at 84.300 level. the blue line support is derived from the monthly charts and its a concrete support which has been rejected and the price shows it might climb up. For this to happen the channel must break. This just represents my analysis of the pair, shall there be any updates in the future regarding trade entry i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUDJPY Looking To Break Range To Target 81.000 level!AUDJPY is currently range trading that is visible by looking at the 4hr and daily timeframes. Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in between the blue lines (range). Shall a breakout of the range occur to the upside, the price will look to target the 81.000 area where the weekly EMA 50 is present. Have a look at the snapshot of the weekly charts below: From the chart above, the price is confined in a descending channel and is currently en-route to testing the dynamic EMA 50. Furthermore, the 78.000 psychological level is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been rejected on too many occasions notably most recently on the monthly candle and the flash crash that happened last month. A LONG position is favored only if the range breaks to the upside, in other words the daily candle and NOT the 4hr Candle must close outside of the range on the daily charts. Followed by a slight retracement before we could execute a LONG entry. In the future if the price decisively closes above the weekly 50 EMA we could take this pair LONG towards the descending trendline of the main weekly channel. RISK ON appetite in the market would make AUD more valuable in comparison to safehaven yen which tends be sold off more together with GOLD AND CHF, therefore if a trade deal is made which is a likely scenario we can expect the AUD to rally against the YEN. This just represents my analysis for this pair, shall the opportunity arise i will post the entry criteria in a new thread. stay tuned and cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
A Close Above MONTHLY 50 EMA Could Take NZDJPY Towards 83.500 Price is currently confined in a descending channel or wedge on the weekly charts with multiple tests occurring on both sides of the channel making it more and more potent if a breakout occurs! The blue lines on the main charts represent the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts and as of few weeks ago the 75.000 level was respected and now the price seems to be heading towards the next resistance that lies in the 83.000 region. For this to take place the channel on the weekly charts must be broken convincingly and most importantly the MONTHLY 50 EMA must be broken to the upside (the monthly price candle must close above the monthly 50 EMA). Have a look at the picture below for further illustrations Once all these take place and fundamentals starts to align with technical picture, we can take this pair LONG with swing trading chance towards the 83.5000 level. On the flip side, shall the trendline gets rejected again on the weekly charts, then we can take this pair SHORT (day trading chance) towards the support beneath at 74.5000 level. see the image below for the technical aspects for the SHORT trade If the wedge is broken, the daily 50 EMA must be broken too in the process for the SHORT trade to be confirmed. Once this all takes place we wait for the price to slightly retrace before making an entry Shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this just represents my personal technical analysis behind this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURJPY Likely To Fall Further! A SHORT trade SetupTRADE TYPE: SELL WHEN THE MARKET OPENS AT AROUND 124.800 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 126.750 TAKE PROFIT: 123.000 RR: 1:1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS With the trendline and channel on daily charts broken convincingly, the cross is aiming to test the next crucial support that lies in the 123.000 level! Price has already given the confirmation and the short trade can be executed once the market opens on monday. There are other crucial technical analysis that are too long too explain behind this trade setup, all in all the analysis is based on weekly charts but the structure on the daily TF has given me enough confirmation to take this trade short FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Well what can be said about the EUR! ECB on thursday surprised the markets by its more than expected dovish announcement which sent all the EUR pairs into high selling pressure. The EUR is sentimented to fall further in the coming days. Shall there be any updates i will provide them here. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
ETH 20+100 Day EMA Crossing Upwards (again)As referenced in ETH's daily chart, within the past month, the following price fluctuations were observed upon its 20Day EMA crossing with the 100Day EMA: On February 10th, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (upward), ETH price increased approximately 8.31% (or $9.61) within 24hrs; On March 3rd, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (downward), ETH price decreased approximately, an additional (?) 3.76% (or $4.80); As of the time of this writing, the Daily RSI is currently @ 62 and the 20+100 EMA's appears to be crossing in an upward direction. Whether the EMA's actually crosses and action follows, TBD. This is not a recommendation, only my observations and for informational reference.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Yur_Gr8est_Fan
Know Your Sh-- Er, Poop: Bitcoin Testing Its Bullish Status!Hey there, TradingView... long time, no chat! If you're like me, you've been waiting the past two-plus months to find a clear sign that Bitcoin has either: (1) “officially” bottomed already, or (2) pushed itself to another point of capitulation, thus creating a new and (likely) final bottom. In the time since BTC dropped from 6K to 3.1K, it has not closed above 4.2K or below 3.3K. So this waiting game is starting to get tiresome… Luckily, we’re finally seeing some major developments, and I’ll illustrate WHY THIS IS BIG by pinging off a pair of ideas. IDEA ONE: Bitcoin may come to test its bottom via the 200-week moving average (by tabsports) Back in December, I published the idea that I will not buy long-term just yet, because Bitcoin was testing the 200W-MA (around $3178 on Bitstamp at the time of publishing). I then concluded my idea by claiming that BTC will either: (1) fall below the 200W-MA, thus giving us one final bit of capitulation while establishing the long-term bottom, or (2) bounce back from the 200W-MA, only to revisit this moving average to test the “official bottom” of the post-19K bear market. The former situation would’ve established the bottom within weeks, while the latter meant we would need months to see the bottom. As you can safely conclude, the former has played out. I published the idea in question on December 15. By the time the next weekly candle closed, BTC was up around the 4K range. It peaked at around 4.2K before Christmas, before the price eventually fell back to the 3.3K range at the Jan19-Feb19 turn of the month. At the time of the fallback, the 200W-MA was around at $3298.50 and $3315.57 on Bitstamp for the two weekly candles in that timeframe. ONCE AGAIN, Bitcoin bounced off the moving average, and it pushed back to the 4.2K peak before taking a regression-based tumble on Sunday. Despite this development, I’m hesitant to call the bottom just yet. I was burned when calling the 6K bottom, despite Bitcoin resisting the bears at 6K about four or five times. Maybe it was too much natural bear pressure that caused the eventual breakdown. Maybe it was the Bitcoin Cash drama. Either way, it destroyed an idea that held up for six months. As a result, I’m going to be more cautious after taking that L. IDEA TWO: Bitcoin may have established its bottom by breaching the 50-day exponential moving average (by MagicPoopCannon) Here’s where I give somebody else props, because his idea gave me some inspiration. While MPC was calling a 3K bottom (or worse) back in April (or earlier), I was focused on short gains that were bouncing off a 6K bottom. That initial idea worked for me, taking Bitcoin from 6.8K on Coinbase at the time of publishing to 9.9K about one month later. However, that was merely a short-term triumph. Now, it’s clear that 3K bottom was reached... or worse. If you sold at the dump below 6K, you didn’t suffer much. But if you held, odds are you are still hoping for a major recovery to help your gains. Luckily, MPC recently pointed out that Bitcoin has surpassed its 50D-EMA , and this is a bullish sign. (Seriously, go give a read to his ideas related to this focal point of analysis. He deserves credit for the insight.) Using this idea as inspiration, I show in this chart a comparison between the 50D-EMA (amber) and the 5-day volume-weight moving average (dark grey). As you can see, the 50D-EMA is greater than the 5D-VWMA on Coinbase for the first time since the Aug18-Sep18 turn of the month. Indeed, this is a short-term bullish sign. However, now we must consider that $400 drop on Sunday. At the time, the daily RSI was overbought, and I personally stay away from buying. Sunday’s dump was pretty hasty and nasty, but it did the important thing of holding up at the 50D-EMA. It has even bounced back a bit in the past day. This is a potentially great sign that both the active Bitcoin price and 5D-VWMA will stay above the 50D-EMA for the upcoming days and/or weeks. Keep an eye on how these two developments play out. Monitor the 200W-MA (Bitstamp), 50D-EMA (Coinbase) and 5D-VWMA (Coinbase). If the 5D-VWMA resists at 50D-EMA, it means the bulls have a chance to truly get this run going. If it fails and goes back to the 200W-MA, it means we’re left to speculate the Bitcoin bottom once again. And finally, if it breaks below 200W-MA, it would likely mean once final bit of capitulation. (The good news in the last case is that there’s a juicy buy and perhaps the much-desired arrival of the crypto winter solstice. Seriously, enough waiting... I'm eagerly awaiting the next crypto spring!) So, to conclude, know your poop about these Bitcoin developments! THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO BUY OR SELL, but rather a call for further research on how Bitcoin is establishing/testing both its long-term bottom and short-term bull status. Once we see how these developments play out, we’ll know when and how to take some real action. Until then, happy trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by tabsports