Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
ETH 20+100 Day EMA Crossing Upwards (again)As referenced in ETH's daily chart, within the past month, the following price fluctuations were observed upon its 20Day EMA crossing with the 100Day EMA:
On February 10th, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (upward), ETH price increased approximately 8.31% (or $9.61) within 24hrs;
On March 3rd, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (downward), ETH price decreased approximately, an additional (?) 3.76% (or $4.80);
As of the time of this writing, the Daily RSI is currently @ 62 and the 20+100 EMA's appears to be crossing in an upward direction. Whether the EMA's actually crosses and action follows, TBD.
This is not a recommendation, only my observations and for informational reference.
Know Your Sh-- Er, Poop: Bitcoin Testing Its Bullish Status!Hey there, TradingView... long time, no chat! If you're like me, you've been waiting the past two-plus months to find a clear sign that Bitcoin has either: (1) “officially” bottomed already, or (2) pushed itself to another point of capitulation, thus creating a new and (likely) final bottom. In the time since BTC dropped from 6K to 3.1K, it has not closed above 4.2K or below 3.3K. So this waiting game is starting to get tiresome…
Luckily, we’re finally seeing some major developments, and I’ll illustrate WHY THIS IS BIG by pinging off a pair of ideas.
IDEA ONE: Bitcoin may come to test its bottom via the 200-week moving average (by tabsports)
Back in December, I published the idea that I will not buy long-term just yet, because Bitcoin was testing the 200W-MA (around $3178 on Bitstamp at the time of publishing). I then concluded my idea by claiming that BTC will either: (1) fall below the 200W-MA, thus giving us one final bit of capitulation while establishing the long-term bottom, or (2) bounce back from the 200W-MA, only to revisit this moving average to test the “official bottom” of the post-19K bear market. The former situation would’ve established the bottom within weeks, while the latter meant we would need months to see the bottom.
As you can safely conclude, the former has played out. I published the idea in question on December 15. By the time the next weekly candle closed, BTC was up around the 4K range. It peaked at around 4.2K before Christmas, before the price eventually fell back to the 3.3K range at the Jan19-Feb19 turn of the month. At the time of the fallback, the 200W-MA was around at $3298.50 and $3315.57 on Bitstamp for the two weekly candles in that timeframe. ONCE AGAIN, Bitcoin bounced off the moving average, and it pushed back to the 4.2K peak before taking a regression-based tumble on Sunday.
Despite this development, I’m hesitant to call the bottom just yet. I was burned when calling the 6K bottom, despite Bitcoin resisting the bears at 6K about four or five times. Maybe it was too much natural bear pressure that caused the eventual breakdown. Maybe it was the Bitcoin Cash drama. Either way, it destroyed an idea that held up for six months. As a result, I’m going to be more cautious after taking that L.
IDEA TWO: Bitcoin may have established its bottom by breaching the 50-day exponential moving average (by MagicPoopCannon)
Here’s where I give somebody else props, because his idea gave me some inspiration. While MPC was calling a 3K bottom (or worse) back in April (or earlier), I was focused on short gains that were bouncing off a 6K bottom. That initial idea worked for me, taking Bitcoin from 6.8K on Coinbase at the time of publishing to 9.9K about one month later. However, that was merely a short-term triumph.
Now, it’s clear that 3K bottom was reached... or worse. If you sold at the dump below 6K, you didn’t suffer much. But if you held, odds are you are still hoping for a major recovery to help your gains. Luckily, MPC recently pointed out that Bitcoin has surpassed its 50D-EMA , and this is a bullish sign. (Seriously, go give a read to his ideas related to this focal point of analysis. He deserves credit for the insight.)
Using this idea as inspiration, I show in this chart a comparison between the 50D-EMA (amber) and the 5-day volume-weight moving average (dark grey). As you can see, the 50D-EMA is greater than the 5D-VWMA on Coinbase for the first time since the Aug18-Sep18 turn of the month. Indeed, this is a short-term bullish sign. However, now we must consider that $400 drop on Sunday. At the time, the daily RSI was overbought, and I personally stay away from buying. Sunday’s dump was pretty hasty and nasty, but it did the important thing of holding up at the 50D-EMA. It has even bounced back a bit in the past day. This is a potentially great sign that both the active Bitcoin price and 5D-VWMA will stay above the 50D-EMA for the upcoming days and/or weeks.
Keep an eye on how these two developments play out. Monitor the 200W-MA (Bitstamp), 50D-EMA (Coinbase) and 5D-VWMA (Coinbase). If the 5D-VWMA resists at 50D-EMA, it means the bulls have a chance to truly get this run going. If it fails and goes back to the 200W-MA, it means we’re left to speculate the Bitcoin bottom once again. And finally, if it breaks below 200W-MA, it would likely mean once final bit of capitulation. (The good news in the last case is that there’s a juicy buy and perhaps the much-desired arrival of the crypto winter solstice. Seriously, enough waiting... I'm eagerly awaiting the next crypto spring!)
So, to conclude, know your poop about these Bitcoin developments! THIS IS NOT ADVICE TO BUY OR SELL, but rather a call for further research on how Bitcoin is establishing/testing both its long-term bottom and short-term bull status. Once we see how these developments play out, we’ll know when and how to take some real action.
Until then, happy trading!
4 Point Payout! 95% accurate NKCKWhen the WMA crosses up over the two EMA bands expect the trend to continue up, you should also wait to see it flip on the Awesome Oscillator. And expect the opposite for a sell. For quick results use this on the 1 min candle stick.
A Close Above Daily EMA 50 Might Take EURNZD To 1.69000 level !1.65000 level represents the concrete support level drawn from the Monthly charts, which has been clearly rejected and the price now aims at breaking the channel that it is confined in and close above the daily 50 EMA!
A convincing close above daily 50 EMA needs to take place, thereby giving further confluence that the price is headed towards the 1.69000 level!
1.69000 level is the area where the weekly 50 EMA is present and can often act as a dynamic support and resistance and therefore our target would be that level. In the future if the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA we can opt to take this pair further LONG to the next resistance (THE RED LINES ON THE CHART)
On the fundamental aspects the AUD and NZD are both set to depreciate this year with the reason being they are too overvalued at the time. I feel a drop in NZD against the USD will likely happen soon and this will inturn have great impact on the EURNZD too. It remains to be seen if the technical aspects meet in the coming days.
shall there be any trade entries i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair. cheers
Happy Fibonacci Friday ... staying Long $BTCBullish signals coming from the RSI and the ADX, but the only thing lacking is volume.
Cautiously optimistic, but staying long.
Have a good weekend!
My BTC forecast (NOT Professional)Once upon a time,
Based on my hypothetical assessment, this chart reflects the "starting point" of the triangle to be June 4, 2018 "DEATH CROSS". In light of the 200 Day EMA's current trajectory, and established LOW, it appears to support the few rejections aligning the top of the triangle nicely as noted by the yellow circles. As such, IF all things stay equal, my BTC forecast for the next few months are as follows:
+Best case scenario, BTC makes a significant trend change on/around April 20th;
+Worst case scenario, BTC makes a significant trend change on/around May 20th;
+Doomsday scenario, BTC breaks below 3,100 (YOU pick a day)
*The green lines are reasonable representations of the price channel BTC will bounce around-in, with "slight" deviations above/below it of course, until the significant trend change occurs (i.e. "GOLDEN CROSS").
The End.
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION WHAT MAKES A TRENDThis defines a trend in such in clear terms that it applies to any time frame, any symbol, any market, any time of day.
Here are some definitions I have heard what is a trend
A trend demonstrates higher highs, or lower lows. Really? how many bars of "higher highs" or "lower lows" are required to define a trend?
The trend is your friend until it ends," because most people don't even know when it started! Let alone when it's about to end, or reverse and run up a margin call.
What do you use to determine "The Trend?"
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 334)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P > S EMA > M EMA > L EMA (rolling up) = fully bullish
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E
Horizontals: R: $4,259 | Will $4,113 become support?
Trendline: at $4,500
Parabolic SAR: $3,656
Futures Curve: Spot < March > June
BTCUSDSHORTS: New local low. Next support at 17,000. If that breaks down target would be 10,000
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0008%
TD’ Sequential: G8 | TDST = $4,275
Ichimoku Cloud: Just got bullish kumo twist. Very interesting how that happened at ~ the same time as the 50 EMA rolling up.
Relative Strength Index: 77
Average Directional Index: Weekly is getting close to turning bullish. 3D just did it.
Price Action: 24h: +5% | 2w: +13.5% | 1m: +16.8%
Bollinger Bands: 3D closed above top band. Love the Daily getting stuck to the top band.
Stochastic Oscillator: Bullish recross > 80.
Summary: Now is the time to be very careful. If you went long over the past week then now is the time to adjust stop losses, if you haven’t already. I have moved my stop losses on ETH and BTC well into the profit and that is a very good feeling.
If you did not long over the past couple weeks and want to now then ask yourself why? Are you getting a great setup to enter or are you feeling emotional / FOMO?
The 200 W EMA is rolling over and is currently being tested for resistance. It has held strong since November of 2018. Even if we do get through that area then there is a bear TL and 200 D EMA waiting directly above. If we can get through those areas then the volume profile indicates a high probability of returning to $6,000.
If not in a position then I would not be entering long now. We are overbought, on a green 8 at major resistance. If it were me then I would stay on the sidelines and look for signs of exhaustion and be ready to enter shorts. I do think this bounce still could have some room to go but there is no way I would feel comfortable entering a swing trade now.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 333)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E
Horizontals: R: $3,992 | S: $3,859
Trendline: At $4,536
Parabolic SAR: $3,539
Futures Curve: Contango
BTCUSDSHORTS: Watching for it to take out the local low at 18,970
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0065%
TD’ Sequential: G6
Ichimoku Cloud: Very surprised that we haven’t seen a bullish kumo twist
Relative Strength Index: Testing 70
Average Directional Index: Bull trend on daily. +DI is starting to approach -DI on the weekly.
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +16.3% | 1m: +10.5%
Bollinger Bands: Weekly is very bearish and the MA is in confluence with the TL
Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal
Summary: I was hoping to see some more follow through out these last 24 - 48 hours. The volume was there on both breakouts (Feb 8th & 18th) however we have petered out at $4,000 horizontal resistance.
The fact that we continue to consolidate above the 4 EMA is a very strong sign as far as I am concerned. We didn’t smash right through resistance and that left us with two options. Get rejected hard and retrace the full rally from $3,600 or see support move up and consolidate.
The longer we continue to support above the 4 EMA the more likely I think we are to pop through it hard and fast. If that happens then my targets are the bear TL and the 200 day EMA.
If not in a position then I would shy away from BTC due to the resistance that is stacked from here to $5,000. However, there are some other options that appear to have less resistance and better risk:reward ratios.
XRP and BCH look ready for a big rally that might lead the rest of the market through this current area of resistance. Both recently had an ABC correction that pulled the price into a golden cross with the 50 & 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart.
PT.Wijaya Karya (PERSERO),Tbk - Short The Bounce,Long The TrendHello Guys,
i'm back again,i'll describe you guys about the $WIKA indonesian stock movement in further days. as you can see in above chart, i make a possibility movement using moving average expotentional (EMA) indicators setup. in recent days,a lot of red candles there & if you see that red & purple EMA was crossing too which basically tell us if there will much possibility more bearish movement in the further days. but today candle marked with 2,36% gain was a good sign for a little bounce (bounced at 100-EMA support) toward previous resistance,so i'm gonna short it!.
if we can hold & marching from 0.236 resistance,then there is a big chance we can test the rally again to Rp. 1971 area. but if that bounce that i'm shorting is just a 'dead cat bounce' (bigger possibility in my assumption), then we gonna fall again to the next support that i draw on the chart in 0.618 fibonacci retracement golden ratio line which is refer to below around 30 Rsi area too.
even the EMA 200 below & was crossing the 100-EMA (a trend reversal),i don't expect we can continue the rally because the Rsi was too fckin oversold & drown below 40 level.
tab like button if you guys like this analysis :)
follow me too for more market analysis updates :)
SAFEHAVEN YEN Aiming to Test the Lower Trendline Of the Channel Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in a channel which is in a current uptrend! However a small pause is likely to occur before the long term price finds the right direction to trend again.
Looking at the above 4hr charts, there is a rough head and shoulders pattern that is present and a break of the neckline which also happens to be at the level of 4hr 50 EMA could signal a slight correction towards the ascending trendline of the channel. If a break does occur i will potentially wait for the price to breach both 4hr and daily 50 EMA before going short on this pair.
i shall provide any update for entry criteria shall the technical and fundamental picture meet. cheers
BTC Daily Update (day 329)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: S MA < M MA < P < L MA = price being squeezed between golden cross?
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave. Bear channel
Horizontals: $3,661
Trendline: See bear channel posted on day 326
Parabolic SAR: $3,397
Futures Curve: Reentering Contango. Great example of why you buy the future when it is cheaper than spot. If you are right on the long then the future should become worth more that spot through the premium in Contango which is a nice added premium.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like a higher low still pretty neutral in my opinion.
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% which confirms my thought that it is pretty neutral.
TD’ Sequential: G2 right now is very interesting. A close above the 1 would be in line with a breakthrough of the 50 EMA.
Ichimoku Cloud: Above would also be in line a kumo breakout.
Relative Strength Index: 58, higher high
Average Directional Index: Higher low above 20?
Price Action: 24h: +2.4% | 2w: +7.2% | 1m: +2.9%
Bollinger Bands: Top band starting to turn up
Summary: The 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4 hour chart is my best indication that we are in for a strong bounce. They have been in a bearish cross for 6 months. That might be a record, it is at least since the beginning of 2017 (bull or bear).
My target is the 200 Day EMA which I expect to be in the $4,800 hundred area. Originally I thought we would go get above that due to the gap in volume profile at $5,000, but now it really looks like alts are going to suck up the majority of this bounce.
ETH appears to be leading the way and BTC is presenting a few very nice entries!
TY1!: Bullish flag patternApologies if I have been focusing too much on the bigger macro picture but I am too busy with some projects to do individual stock screening. Nevertheless, if you have been following my posts, you would know I am of the view that we are in the midst of a major inflection point (check out the Preponderance of Evidence series and DM me for full written report if interested) so it is more important to get the big picture right.
Essentially, the TY1! has:-
#1 bounced off a key long-term support from 1999,
#2 had a golden cross (50-dma vs. 200-dma or 100-dma vs. 200-dma)
#3 been consolidating in a bullish flag which happens to be a continuation pattern.
I am using a version of Daryl Guppy Multiple Moving Averages ('MMA') to complement the bullish continuation flag pattern; The MMA utilizes 2 group of moving averages, 1 fast, 1 slow, to track trend changes as well as trend strength. In the TY1! case, the MMA long-term moving averages are not showing any signs of compression which suggest the up trend is intact.
Indicative ABCD upside potential is for a move up to $126.20.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 326)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel
Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support
Trendline: Bear channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,359
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA.
Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest
Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6%
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal
Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it.
That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion.
That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short.
The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility:
It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow.
I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
BITCOIN CHART $BTC $USD BITMEX:XBT
NICE PUMP BUT DONT LET YOUR EMOTIONS WIN, AND DONT LET THE NOISE CONVINCE YOU THIS IS THE BULL RUN EVERYONE IS EXPECTING.
WE ARE INSIDE OF A MASSIVE FALLING WEDGE, IF WE HOLD THE WHITE CHANNEL AND TRADE SIDEWAYS WE CAN THINK ABOUT GOING FOR THE $4,200 RESISTANCE, IF THERE IS LACK OF VOLUME AND BEARS PUSH THE PRICE DOWN, THE YELLOW THENDLINE MUST TO HOLD, IF NOT, SEE YOU LATER..
-NEXT RESISTANCES $3,800/$4,200
-MAIN SUPPORT TO WATCH IS $3,500
-IF WE BREAK DOWN $3,100/$2,800/$1,900
BTC 200 EMA vs. 200 MAWhat's coin on guys?
While everyone these days are talking about support from 200 weekly MA, nobody is talking about trading below 200 weekly EMA.
selby_exchange - BTCUSD - Selby Bitcoin Price Analysis - $2915New price/time prediction system of extrapolation based on decoupled EMA's and a hybrid linear regression with sidechain MMAR
COINBASE:BTCUSD Price target $2915 on 02/24/2019.
Selby finding creative patterns in charts on Tradingview!
Not advice for investing lol, but I am one to watch ;)
Rebellion=Change=Future
Humanity Love Inclusion Autonomy Respect Opportunity Truth Veganism Singularity
selby_exchange - BTCUSD - Selby Bitcoin Price AnalysisSelby finding creative patterns in charts on Tradingview!
Not advice for investing lol, but I am one to watch ;)
Rebellion=Change=Future
GBPJPY Head and Shoulders Pattern, Neckline barely brokenGBPJPY has formed a textbook Head and Shoulders Pattern.
Price has broken the neckline, as well as broken below 200 EMA.
Look for short entries.
MA vs EMA , Which one will break first ? We are in a tightening range, getting supported buy the 200 MA and resisted buy the 200 EMA. These lines are worth watching in coming weeks and months. Breaking any of these lines may trigger a big moves !
GBP/USD: Potential Buying Opportunity Year to date, the pair has developed a support line trending positively. Also serving as further support is the 9-day EMA.
I would wait for the pair to trace down back towards the support and then enter a long GBP position. I expect the first level of resistance will come at 1.3000, and following a break of that, around the 200-day EMA, currently at 1.3030.
Trade:
Buy Limit: 1.29295
Stop Loss: 1.2890
Take Profit (half): 1.3000
Take Profit (other half): 1.3030
Alternatively, I do see another resistance point potentially coming a little before the 1.3000 level, at around 1.29850, which I realize does not make the most attractive risk:reward ratio. However, I think there is still a few pips to squeeze out to the upside at this current level before this overall up-trend ends.
