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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

A Close Above Daily EMA 50 Might Take EURNZD To 1.69000 level !1.65000 level represents the concrete support level drawn from the Monthly charts, which has been clearly rejected and the price now aims at breaking the channel that it is confined in and close above the daily 50 EMA! A convincing close above daily 50 EMA needs to take place, thereby giving further confluence that the price is headed towards the 1.69000 level! 1.69000 level is the area where the weekly 50 EMA is present and can often act as a dynamic support and resistance and therefore our target would be that level. In the future if the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA we can opt to take this pair further LONG to the next resistance (THE RED LINES ON THE CHART) On the fundamental aspects the AUD and NZD are both set to depreciate this year with the reason being they are too overvalued at the time. I feel a drop in NZD against the USD will likely happen soon and this will inturn have great impact on the EURNZD too. It remains to be seen if the technical aspects meet in the coming days. shall there be any trade entries i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
My BTC forecast (NOT Professional)Once upon a time, Based on my hypothetical assessment, this chart reflects the "starting point" of the triangle to be June 4, 2018 "DEATH CROSS". In light of the 200 Day EMA's current trajectory, and established LOW, it appears to support the few rejections aligning the top of the triangle nicely as noted by the yellow circles. As such, IF all things stay equal, my BTC forecast for the next few months are as follows: +Best case scenario, BTC makes a significant trend change on/around April 20th; +Worst case scenario, BTC makes a significant trend change on/around May 20th; +Doomsday scenario, BTC breaks below 3,100 (YOU pick a day) *The green lines are reasonable representations of the price channel BTC will bounce around-in, with "slight" deviations above/below it of course, until the significant trend change occurs (i.e. "GOLDEN CROSS"). The End.
BNC:BLX
by Yur_Gr8est_Fan
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION WHAT MAKES A TRENDThis defines a trend in such in clear terms that it applies to any time frame, any symbol, any market, any time of day. Here are some definitions I have heard what is a trend A trend demonstrates higher highs, or lower lows. Really? how many bars of "higher highs" or "lower lows" are required to define a trend? The trend is your friend until it ends," because most people don't even know when it started! Let alone when it's about to end, or reverse and run up a margin call. What do you use to determine "The Trend?"
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 334)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > S EMA > M EMA > L EMA (rolling up) = fully bullish Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E Horizontals: R: $4,259 | Will $4,113 become support? Trendline: at $4,500 Parabolic SAR: $3,656 Futures Curve: Spot < March > June BTCUSDSHORTS: New local low. Next support at 17,000. If that breaks down target would be 10,000 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0008% TD’ Sequential: G8 | TDST = $4,275 Ichimoku Cloud: Just got bullish kumo twist. Very interesting how that happened at ~ the same time as the 50 EMA rolling up. Relative Strength Index: 77 Average Directional Index: Weekly is getting close to turning bullish. 3D just did it. Price Action: 24h: +5% | 2w: +13.5% | 1m: +16.8% Bollinger Bands: 3D closed above top band. Love the Daily getting stuck to the top band. Stochastic Oscillator: Bullish recross > 80. Summary: Now is the time to be very careful. If you went long over the past week then now is the time to adjust stop losses, if you haven’t already. I have moved my stop losses on ETH and BTC well into the profit and that is a very good feeling. If you did not long over the past couple weeks and want to now then ask yourself why? Are you getting a great setup to enter or are you feeling emotional / FOMO? The 200 W EMA is rolling over and is currently being tested for resistance. It has held strong since November of 2018. Even if we do get through that area then there is a bear TL and 200 D EMA waiting directly above. If we can get through those areas then the volume profile indicates a high probability of returning to $6,000. If not in a position then I would not be entering long now. We are overbought, on a green 8 at major resistance. If it were me then I would stay on the sidelines and look for signs of exhaustion and be ready to enter shorts. I do think this bounce still could have some room to go but there is no way I would feel comfortable entering a swing trade now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 333)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E Horizontals: R: $3,992 | S: $3,859 Trendline: At $4,536 Parabolic SAR: $3,539 Futures Curve: Contango BTCUSDSHORTS: Watching for it to take out the local low at 18,970 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0065% TD’ Sequential: G6 Ichimoku Cloud: Very surprised that we haven’t seen a bullish kumo twist Relative Strength Index: Testing 70 Average Directional Index: Bull trend on daily. +DI is starting to approach -DI on the weekly. Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +16.3% | 1m: +10.5% Bollinger Bands: Weekly is very bearish and the MA is in confluence with the TL Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal Summary: I was hoping to see some more follow through out these last 24 - 48 hours. The volume was there on both breakouts (Feb 8th & 18th) however we have petered out at $4,000 horizontal resistance. The fact that we continue to consolidate above the 4 EMA is a very strong sign as far as I am concerned. We didn’t smash right through resistance and that left us with two options. Get rejected hard and retrace the full rally from $3,600 or see support move up and consolidate. The longer we continue to support above the 4 EMA the more likely I think we are to pop through it hard and fast. If that happens then my targets are the bear TL and the 200 day EMA. If not in a position then I would shy away from BTC due to the resistance that is stacked from here to $5,000. However, there are some other options that appear to have less resistance and better risk:reward ratios. XRP and BCH look ready for a big rally that might lead the rest of the market through this current area of resistance. Both recently had an ABC correction that pulled the price into a golden cross with the 50 & 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
PT.Wijaya Karya (PERSERO),Tbk - Short The Bounce,Long The TrendHello Guys, i'm back again,i'll describe you guys about the $WIKA indonesian stock movement in further days. as you can see in above chart, i make a possibility movement using moving average expotentional (EMA) indicators setup. in recent days,a lot of red candles there & if you see that red & purple EMA was crossing too which basically tell us if there will much possibility more bearish movement in the further days. but today candle marked with 2,36% gain was a good sign for a little bounce (bounced at 100-EMA support) toward previous resistance,so i'm gonna short it!. if we can hold & marching from 0.236 resistance,then there is a big chance we can test the rally again to Rp. 1971 area. but if that bounce that i'm shorting is just a 'dead cat bounce' (bigger possibility in my assumption), then we gonna fall again to the next support that i draw on the chart in 0.618 fibonacci retracement golden ratio line which is refer to below around 30 Rsi area too. even the EMA 200 below & was crossing the 100-EMA (a trend reversal),i don't expect we can continue the rally because the Rsi was too fckin oversold & drown below 40 level. tab like button if you guys like this analysis :) follow me too for more market analysis updates :)
IDX:WIKALong
by UnknownUnicorn2803452
SAFEHAVEN YEN Aiming to Test the Lower Trendline Of the Channel Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in a channel which is in a current uptrend! However a small pause is likely to occur before the long term price finds the right direction to trend again. Looking at the above 4hr charts, there is a rough head and shoulders pattern that is present and a break of the neckline which also happens to be at the level of 4hr 50 EMA could signal a slight correction towards the ascending trendline of the channel. If a break does occur i will potentially wait for the price to breach both 4hr and daily 50 EMA before going short on this pair. i shall provide any update for entry criteria shall the technical and fundamental picture meet. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTC Daily Update (day 329)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < M MA < P < L MA = price being squeezed between golden cross? Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave. Bear channel Horizontals: $3,661 Trendline: See bear channel posted on day 326 Parabolic SAR: $3,397 Futures Curve: Reentering Contango. Great example of why you buy the future when it is cheaper than spot. If you are right on the long then the future should become worth more that spot through the premium in Contango which is a nice added premium. BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like a higher low still pretty neutral in my opinion. Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% which confirms my thought that it is pretty neutral. TD’ Sequential: G2 right now is very interesting. A close above the 1 would be in line with a breakthrough of the 50 EMA. Ichimoku Cloud: Above would also be in line a kumo breakout. Relative Strength Index: 58, higher high Average Directional Index: Higher low above 20? Price Action: 24h: +2.4% | 2w: +7.2% | 1m: +2.9% Bollinger Bands: Top band starting to turn up Summary: The 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4 hour chart is my best indication that we are in for a strong bounce. They have been in a bearish cross for 6 months. That might be a record, it is at least since the beginning of 2017 (bull or bear). My target is the 200 Day EMA which I expect to be in the $4,800 hundred area. Originally I thought we would go get above that due to the gap in volume profile at $5,000, but now it really looks like alts are going to suck up the majority of this bounce. ETH appears to be leading the way and BTC is presenting a few very nice entries!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
6
TY1!: Bullish flag patternApologies if I have been focusing too much on the bigger macro picture but I am too busy with some projects to do individual stock screening. Nevertheless, if you have been following my posts, you would know I am of the view that we are in the midst of a major inflection point (check out the Preponderance of Evidence series and DM me for full written report if interested) so it is more important to get the big picture right. Essentially, the TY1! has:- #1 bounced off a key long-term support from 1999, #2 had a golden cross (50-dma vs. 200-dma or 100-dma vs. 200-dma) #3 been consolidating in a bullish flag which happens to be a continuation pattern. I am using a version of Daryl Guppy Multiple Moving Averages ('MMA') to complement the bullish continuation flag pattern; The MMA utilizes 2 group of moving averages, 1 fast, 1 slow, to track trend changes as well as trend strength. In the TY1! case, the MMA long-term moving averages are not showing any signs of compression which suggest the up trend is intact. Indicative ABCD upside potential is for a move up to $126.20.
TLong
by WellTrainedMonkey
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 326)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,359 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal. BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA. Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6% Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494 Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it. That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion. That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short. The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility: It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow. I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BITCOIN CHART $BTC $USD BITMEX:XBT NICE PUMP BUT DONT LET YOUR EMOTIONS WIN, AND DONT LET THE NOISE CONVINCE YOU THIS IS THE BULL RUN EVERYONE IS EXPECTING. WE ARE INSIDE OF A MASSIVE FALLING WEDGE, IF WE HOLD THE WHITE CHANNEL AND TRADE SIDEWAYS WE CAN THINK ABOUT GOING FOR THE $4,200 RESISTANCE, IF THERE IS LACK OF VOLUME AND BEARS PUSH THE PRICE DOWN, THE YELLOW THENDLINE MUST TO HOLD, IF NOT, SEE YOU LATER.. -NEXT RESISTANCES $3,800/$4,200 -MAIN SUPPORT TO WATCH IS $3,500 -IF WE BREAK DOWN $3,100/$2,800/$1,900
BITMEX:XBT
by AMCryptoTrading
1
GBP/USD: Potential Buying Opportunity Year to date, the pair has developed a support line trending positively. Also serving as further support is the 9-day EMA. I would wait for the pair to trace down back towards the support and then enter a long GBP position. I expect the first level of resistance will come at 1.3000, and following a break of that, around the 200-day EMA, currently at 1.3030. Trade: Buy Limit: 1.29295 Stop Loss: 1.2890 Take Profit (half): 1.3000 Take Profit (other half): 1.3030 Alternatively, I do see another resistance point potentially coming a little before the 1.3000 level, at around 1.29850, which I realize does not make the most attractive risk:reward ratio. However, I think there is still a few pips to squeeze out to the upside at this current level before this overall up-trend ends.
Long
by BinaryPairing
BTC/USD D1 chart (1/16/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's $100 move to the downside created a descending broadening wedge, out of the previous bull flag, which price broke out of this morning. Currently, price is testing resistance as support, and if this is successful we should generally expect continued upward movement. The 15 minute McGinley Dynamic aligns with the previous resistance and price has closed above the blue pivot, even pushing briefly above the R1 pivot before this retrace. Is this still wave 4 of the C wave? We don't know yet. If so, then we can expect to move to the lower pink box, most likely, before moving up with the next set of impulse waves. Currently, tensorcharts.com is showing significant visible supply on the order books immediately overhead. There is also strong visible demand immediately below price as well. Volume has continued to drop on the H1 suggesting that we may still be in the corrective wave. The next set of impulsive waves up should break through the volume downtrend on the H1/H4 TFs. As always, traders should be utilizing strong risk management and waiting for confirmations before entering a position. The H12 shows the recent upward breakout being rejected at the McGinley Dynamic, but it also shows higher lows and highs from the January 13th low. The lack of a green (white on my chart) D1 candle yesterday makes the January 14th bullish engulfing candle reversal suspect, so we must continue watching the daily closes. The bigger picture remains. We have what appears to be an accumulation TR without a Spring currently printing, denoted by the horizontal blue lines. We have the outer resistance levels denoted by the horizontal red lines (these are ultimately the levels traders should be watching). We have the impulsive move up from the ST. Volume has continued to drop since the PS, suggesting consolidation toward a significant move in either direction. We can see the descending green dashed line, which is aligning with the 50 EMA, and a move above that should see volume increasingly significantly. We can also see there is a possible support building along the ascending dotted black line. The blue zones above the TR note D1 supply. D1 MACD is curled up suggesting bullishness building, as well as having printed bullish divergence on the histogram between December 7th and January 13th. D1 RSI continues printing higher lows and highs so far. A move above the D1 pivot will likely target the upper pink box and then the descending green resistance. My belief remains that if this occurs, then price will hit that green resistance, drop back for a retrace, possibly using the ascending black dotted support to bounce from, and then push through the resistance. I have outlined this possibility in orange, and it would align with the expected movement of this TR completing without a Spring. A move to the lower pink box could still see price following this movement, but it also increases the chances of a retest of the lows at the lower red line. So, as mentioned above, traders need to remain cautious. We will discuss this in detail, as well as look at the smaller TF charts during this morning's live stream. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
EURCHF May Continue Or Change The Trend !EURCHF has been in a decline for the past several weeks. The trend may just continue or it may change its course as the price approaches crucial support level of 1.11000. Currently looking at the weekly charts (the main chart) the price is trending down just shy of the crucial 1.11000 level. Ina few weeks the price is expected to reach that crucial support and then from there on it may either make trend change and aim for the above red line resistance levels or it may continue to head south where other support lies. Have a look at the daily chart in the below snapshot. The price action has developed a descending trendline and it has been respected on numerous occasions. A further confluence factor can be intensified for LONG trade if the trendline breaks together with the resistance of 1.15000. Its advisable to enter LONG when the 1.15000 level is broken and retested so we can get a better risk to reward ratio. On the flip side should the crucial support of 1.110000 break then it may or may NOT follow the current descending trend!. However the main thing that needs to happen is that the support needs to be broken convincingly so our probability can increase. All in all its a matter of being patient and let the price action play out so we can take a more risk to reward favored opportunity when the right time and circumstances appear. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade signal i will post them in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
Potential Daily & Weekly SHORT Trade Developing In EURAUD EURAUD at the moment is providing us with both a swing and day trading opportunity which is still developing and might be complete soon. After hitting the strong crucial resistance of 1.63500 level not once but twice in a span of months the pair seemed to be headed towards the next support level that lies in the region of 1.55000. Have a look at the main chart here as the weekly 50 EMA seems to be present just beneath the weekly candle and can potentially act as a dynamic support. until this weekly 50 EMA is broken convincingly to the downside we then only can confirm that the price is headed to towards that support of 1.55000 level. As i repeat the price has rejected the resistance level of 1.63500 twice and forming a double top chart pattern. This acts as further evidence that the price is headed south for time being and a potential SHORT SWING trading opportunity can only arise given the weekly 50 EMA can be broken convincingly Now onto the day trading opportunity, have a look at the daily chart below The red line represent the weekly 50 ema support thats present on the weekly chart. moreover For this day trading opportunity to take place the the price needs to break the daily 50 EMA and slightly retrace before we can make our entry. Our target ofcourse would be the WEEKLY 50 EMA here. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade entries i will be posting them in the new thread. Hope this helps. cheers and happy trading
Short
by FX618Analysis