Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Bitcoin on the daily pt.4We have a pivotal moment For BTC, we had a change of character (CHoCH) as well as a break below the diagonal supporting trendline in favour of the bears.
With a new Lower Low below the 1D 200EMA needing a reaction off the oversold RSI to stop its decent towards the final target I initially had planned and has shown since the first post on this. A strong reaction brings us back up to the underside of that previous support and now testing resistance.
BTC needs to accept over 24k in order to regain any short term hope of bullish continuation. If not, I fear we're setting up to go lower.
Bitcoin on the daily pt.3We're continuing the downward trend since the double top in the key area swing high range following the prediction path well but ahead of schedule.
The 1D 200EMA support has failed for now, it will be interesting to see if the bulls can regain it, I think BTC takes a real tumble down if not as shown in the chart.
BTC has broken the diagonal supporting trendline too, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a retest to confirm both the trendline and the 9EMA as resistance.
13/02/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $23462.5
Last weeks low: $22446.7
Midpoint: $21431
As BTC retraces down through the FVG that I previously stated I had my eye on, price has now hit both 1D & 4H 200EMA and the top of the previous consolidation range.
Last week this area is where I stated I would look to do business as it provides decent support on the HTF, making sure the 1D & 4H 200EMA holds is pivotal continuing upward momentum. Personally without any big news events this is a solid place to start building Longs.
ETH/USD: Daily perspective to watch in Ethereum priceIn Daily timeframe, Ethereum trying to break-out the EMA 200 and we see another chance that may to climb to $1,638 USD, but if we break-out this resistance key in this reaction point, we could to see a bulls enter here This look a very interesting that we can to long position in the specify price that I will want in this screenshot in the next analysis of my long position in H2 timeframe
I hope that this idea support you and find up news idea to trade crypto!!!
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us.
BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards.
BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator.
Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart:
BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds.
Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud:
The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment.
The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards.
Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916.
V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart)
V = B - (C-B) = D
C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622
B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916
D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023
D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023
Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative).
Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA.
From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023.
From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready.
Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
My Price Analysis of LINKBTC on December 10, 2022Hello friends. Today, according to the LINKBTC chart, I noticed that the chart is generally going down and I have drawn the short-term channel in the 1-hour time frame. The formation of EMAs of 50, 100 and 200 assures that the market is bearish. On the other hand, this arrangement is being formed in the 2-hour time frame. On the other hand, the MACD indicator gives a buy signal. My analysis of this signal is that it can either be a fake signal or a short-term signal that will return to its downward channel after encountering the upcoming resistance. and continue its downward trend.
Everything I've learned about the RSI BINANCE:BTCUSDT
In this post, I'll make an attempt to share everything I've learned over the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Over the past 24 months.
Nothing described in this post is financial advice, it's just me, sharing thoughts and ideas with you.
nb: this post is more suited for traders and investors that are already educated about the RSI Indicators.
A brief introduction about the indicator itself :
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate whether it's better to buy, sell, or wait.
The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.
The RSI is probably the most used oscillator in finance nowadays, by both retail traders and institutions, hence meaning that when used well , it can be used as a great edge to profitability.
RSI popular uses :
- An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
- The RSI can give us insights on a potential trend's loss of momentum or validity when the price pivots levels are diverging with the RSI indicator (hidden and regular divergences)
- The most popular RSI length is 14 periods.
My findings
1. Overbought and oversold: myth or reality?
RSI's 30 and 70 levels never proved themselves to be a strong enough edge for me to be used as a standalone signal for trade entries.
As an example, just look at the irregularity of the results you would get when using just these zones :
My take on it is that as a price oscillator when it crosses into extremes, it simply means price momentum is at extreme levels. To me it's basically like a mountain cyclist in the middle of a race: he might very well go faster and higher, however, the quicker and higher he goes the more unlikely he is to keep up with that speed. Eventually, he might either decrease its speed or even go backward.
What does this tell us ?
The RSI 30 and 70 levels seem to be better used when used as timing indicators. For example, the 70 and 30 levels could be used as a filter for a trader to eliminate market noise when using a trend reversal strategy (mean-reversion). For trend traders, the levels could be used to timing signals where they'll start looking for price to do a pullback (consolidation) to get in the trend.
My experience using the 30 and 70 levels as exit signals however has been better (when it comes to using it as the only signal for a trade exit).
Say you are long on BTCUSD, in profit, and you get an RSI closure above 70. Well, in that case, you could exit 50% of your position and wait for the oscillator to cross down the 70 levels to exit the rest (as the overbought and oversold zones are rarely a defining factor for trend reversals and corrections).
2. Divergences in the overbought and oversold zones :
The lower the time frame you are trading on is, the higher the noise when it comes to divergences, especially with volatile assets such as BTCUSD. So you might want to filter out most of the ones you see to only take the best ones.
On the 15M and 5M timeframes, on BTCUSD, I find that on average about 1/3 of the divergences I see play out. However, we are not expected to take every divergence we see.
Here's what has helped me get better results with divergences :
- When approaching supply and demand zones, especially the higher timeframe ones, we might want to be more aggressive with the divergences we enter into. As the hit rate is not always amazing, the R:R is usually much better, and if the trade works out, it might give you great results which accounts for the low win rate.
- If you want to increase your win rate, I also find that going for higher timeframes is usually better when it comes to divergences.
- Take only divergences where RSI divergence's first pivot point is over 70 or under 30. Ideally, you don't want the noise to go below 60, or above 40, so that your trade has the necessary momentum to play out.
- For extra confirmation, wait for a break of the noise level to enter the trade.
- Regular and hidden divergences play hand in hand creating a form of momentum equilibrium. Hidden divergences always create regular divergences and vice versa. Hence a hidden divergence can be considered an early pullback warning to get in a bigger-picture trend.
- Regular divergences tend to play out better than hidden divergences. This is especially true when the volume is decreasing, or after a longer period of consolidation when volatility has been contracting and might be about to expand soon.
- Regular divergences in strong trends can be both a disaster and a treat. "The trend is your friend". This saying is especially true here. However, 2-3 drives of regular divergences are a great indication of a potential reversal, with enough confirmation factors to produce (often time) a great entry.
- The angle of the trend line between divergences pivot points, both on the price chart and the RSI, can be a good indication of the severity of the divergence occurring.
- The ideal lookback period for detecting divergences for me has proved to be between 5 and 28 bars. (Below 5 bars is not enough to confirm a true pivot point for me and above 28 bars has probably already played out in past price movements).
- Like all edges, using a divergence strategy always produces better results when used in confluence with other signals. I find the best confluences happen when divergences occur: alongside a stochastic cross, near medium-slow moving averages, near horizontal supply and demand zones, alongside volatility expansion, when the volume is decreasing (meaning market makes are in disagreement with the move occurring), near Bollinger bands 2.5 to 3 standard deviations (period 20).
- Convergence between your timeframes and higher timeframes is key to understanding how to better choose your trades. Try to play the big divergences but enter smaller timeframes divergences.
- When you lose a divergence trade, don't get disappointed. Jump back in because often time, and price will need to do several divergences before getting in your desired direction (however, be careful not to jump in tilt mod. Know your win rate and R:R and keep your money management serious. You'll get blown out if you start tilting on this, especially if you trade reversals with divergences, as it's difficult to get the right timing every time).
3. RSI as a trend filter?
- I've found that in trending markets, when RSI's Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above the 50 line, it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- I've found that in trending markets when the RSI line crosses above the EMA (I use a 12 period), it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- As an indication of the trend's direction, I don't find any value in using bullish and bearish control zones. The only use I can find them is when using them for divergence levels filters.
This is the end of the first post of this 2 parts series. There's just so much more you can discover about this indicator that it simply cannot be constricted to a few lines of writing. However, you are welcome to take a few of my findings and go test them out using replay and backtesting. See for yourself, and find your balance.
Most of my learnings have been made through screentime, trial, and error, backtesting, mistakes, and research.
Have a good day,
Arthur Girard
NASDAQ 100 PREDICTION FOR 14-11-2022 Dear trader our prediction for today depend on the the chart analysis 1h , d , 15m
We find the price had moved up a lot without correction and now it make a consolidate for correction in important resistance the price try to break it many time but can't so if the price still not break this resistance then ,, we advice you to be ready to take short position until next support as you see in the chart
Also all the indicators give us same analysis
Be careful today the market not clear until now
Doge usd prediction 11-11-2022 long 1h , d Dear traders as you see in the chart the is a long opportunity that after a big drop was happened before we see the price it moving up and retest the resistance again the it will moving up again also as you see in daily chart their's a green engulfing candle up the resistance and up the ema line so if the price break red line the price well continue moving up until the resistance,, if not then the price well moving down again ,,
Also depend on rsi indecator their's is long signal ...
OMGUSD - Strong Buy RSI RSI signal on the Weekly suggesting a buy
This RSI point has been previously been seen as a point of strong volatility
RSI has already begun the rise, price will follow
$NZDUSD | Back To Top Levels?The New Zealand dollar seems to be unphased by the FOMC meeting this afternoon unlike the rest of the markets. Yes it moved up sharply but eventually settled back in its prior position with a little momentum to push back to top resistance points. Let’s zoom in.
Several items to note here that are brought to light:
– The New Zealand Dollar is currently still above the 200EMA and 365EMA respectively displaying an upward trend which constitutes a BUYing trend.
– EXTREME RSI oversold levels reaching 29 and 30 levels displaying almost a double bottom pattern
– Multiple broken lower Bollinger Bands instances
– Higher highs and higher lows pattern exhibited
As soon as I saw this based on my set up rules, this was a natural BUY order for me. My suggestion is to place your take profit should be below the nearest resistance point 0.58660 levels and your stop loss, I’d put under the 200 EMA for good measure near the 0.57990 line.
Not financial advice. Hotep & Build (wealth).
S&P futures testing 50month EMAThe S&P has been bouncing from its 50 month EMA the past few trading days. Watching for a lower high and to tighten within this range set between last year and this September.
XAUUSD - Awaiting for Lower Low CorrectionGold is ready to do a correction of lower low structure. Last week it had tested at 1654 on its lowest point of the year. This week, there will be the FED interest rate decision which will likely push USD value to do higher high, this makes negative correlation to gold. While the USD is raising up, gold will be down accordingly.
Referring to Technical and statistics chart. You can see on my chart that all TF referring to Trend Diamond phase (Top right table) are all in down trend. MACD-V momentum is also recently in down-ward. We are waiting for US opening session to see the short term momentum of the market.
Currently the strategy of trend following will bring more favourable. However, you need to wait the correction and confirmation from the chart. Gold tried to reach 1680 this morning in Asia session but fail and drop to 1665. Take a look on Daily ATR level it has been test at ATR -50% already and next support zone will be ATR 75% of Sep 19 (1658)
Be careful if you open sell position. Try to place the position when the chart is at highest limitation of the day. Similar to buy position, you need to confirm it before place the order and keep in mind that it is the trend contrarian. The economics news this week may bring high volatility to gold. (Last week it was ranging about 80$ while the weekly ATR is about 55$)
My sell position is from 1680 which is the level of Support flipped to Resistant zone. My TP is 1654 which is its last lowest point of the year. My Expectation is gold will make Lower low and can be end up of this week on Friday below 1650.
See the statistics of monthly chart (bottom right table). In average it moved around 112$ , while in September is has moved only now (High - Low) around 80$ which means there is a possibility to go from 1735 - 112 = 1623$ by end of the month.
Just sharing the point of view, not trading advisory.
XRP NEW PRICErsi is showing we will go up, cause our line is abive the yellow one.
2) in the chart we are looking a W PATTERN.
thouse are 2 proves to have in mind.
we saw this in the 2020
RSI Trend Strategy GuidelinesThe RSI is a versatile indicator, and can be used to provide entry signals during a trend. To get the signals a moving average is applied to the RSI.
1. Trades are only taken in the direction of the trend. For an uptrend only take longs. For a downtrend only take shorts (puts).
2. During a downtrend the RSI must move above 60 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back below its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was above 60 recently) go short.
3. During an uptrend the RSI must move below 40 to indicate a pullback. When the RSI crosses back above its moving average (can be at any number, just as long as the RSI is or was below 40 recently) go long.
4. Give the price at least two or three bars (whatever time frame you are trading on) or more before considering an exit. This gives the price some time to move in your favor.
SPX has broken above its resistance and the 300 day EMASPX has successfully managed to break above a key resistance level around 4100-4150 and in doing so has crossed over the 300 day ema. It's likely that we will see a test of the 300 day ema and resistance as a support level in the short term, but overall, this is bullish in the long run, and signals that we are back into an uptrend.
NFLX: Movement to the EMA 200Netflix share look very interesting what I thinking because we could to find up bought in this share, first, we're in the bearish trend, and we would need to see some time to know in monthly timeframe if this it's an accumulation zone to invest or this it's a bear market to analyze it. But with very carefully, we would need to pay attention in short term to know what happen in the market with Netflix
I hope that his perspective help you
BNTX will pop-up on next earnings dayBNTX will pop-up on next earnings day.
Technicals suggest the stock has been building a bottom the last couple of months. Now is well above the 50 day EMA and it is begining to challenge the 200 day EMA.
The P/E ratio and Forward P/E ratio are in the low single digits.
I expanded my position when BNTX crossed above the 50 day EMA.
#VTL Bullish swing tradeNSE:VTL
just broke out from "VCP pattern" with huge volume and now retraced and took support on "50ema" and also made "inside bar".....
it can be a good swing trade....
only for education purpose, do your analysis before investing.
BNB/BTCHi investors and traders,
BNB/BTC setup looking good for an ATH.
To support this idea check my previous BTC/USD which is shows the bottom was in. At least for short term.
Oscillators looking good.
Forming a bullish pattern with good probability to break out.
Price action above 21 EMA on 2 weeks which is so powerful.
Correlated with BTC dominance price, DXY chart, BTC chart and ETH/BTC will follow, it seems that the markets want a bounce (maybe a bear market rally) until the end of year.
ADA/USD - 1 day chart analysisHere is a closer look at this ADA/USD 1 day chart:
ADA is in a Ichimoku P Wave (the 2 converging Blue Trend-lines on Chart) on this daily timeframe. This P Wave is potentially Bearish because it is an inverted P. Note that the bottom trend-line of the P Wave is near the 38.20% ($0.430) Fib Retracement level.
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid-Point of the Short-Term Momentum is upwards at the moment. Note that the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is still under the Base Line (Kijun Sen)
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indication that the Mid-Point of the Mid-Term Momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indication that Momentum is downwards at the moment. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the past price.
Note that ADA is still in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud.
ADA is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for the 1 day timeframe. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are Pinching inwards at the moment.
At the moment of typing this, ADA has dropped below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA). A daily candle close below the LSMA would be considered a Sell Signal for this indicator on this 1 day timeframe.
ADA is still well below its Longterm Upwards Pitchfork Pattern Median Line and is also below its Lower Yellow Pitchfork Resistance Line.
Looking at the entire ADA Chart we can see that the Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) is at $0.041 and we can see the previous huge Volume Cluster from $0.096 to $0.033. This represents the area where the most volume was traded.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is dropping with the ADX (Orange Line) at 13.988 still below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 15.181. Negative Momentum has dropped with the -DI (Red Line) at 19.976 and Positive Momentum has also dropped with the +DI (Green Line) at 17.218.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum is downwards at the moment. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is below its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of negative momentum strength. Note that the RSI still has plenty of room to drop before entering the Oversold Zone on this 1 day timeframe.
If ADA breaks below its P Wave and its 38.20% ($0.431) Fib Retracement level then we may see an eventual drop to its 50% ($0.233) Fib Retracement Level.
For the upside, we need ADA to stay above its LSMA and to eventually get back ABOVE and CLOSE a daily candle ABOVE its BB Middle Band with a successful re-test as support on this 1 day timeframe.
Looking at this ADA 1 day chart really puts things in perspective, as you can see, ADA spent from March 2018 to March 2019 in the BEARISH ZONE of the Ichimoku Cloud which was then followed by about a year or so of a few rises and falls until March 2020 when ADA rose from $0.017 to an eventual new ATH of $3.143 in Sept 2021. Once this world wide recession and financial/crypto bear market is over be it in a year, 2, 5 or 10 years, eventually the Market Makers will decided that the Path of Least Resistance to Profit is…… upwards! So you have to position yourself ready so you can take advantage of the next parabolic rise up, not just in crypto but also stocks, commodities and indices.
This is all my opinion so please do your own research because its you money.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
CAD/CHF: Long position, break outCandian Dollar/Swiss Franc formed a bearish channel in H4 timeframe and made this break out and pull back in the H4 timeframe
This it's the Daily timeframe and we supported the zone of $0.7400 CHD like key support strong in Daily chart as bull continue climb the price.
But now, in H1 we pass the pull back confirmed and I think that CAD/CHF will go bulish now.
I entry right now in the price of $0.7471 CHF, Stop Loss to $0.7445 CHF (24 pips) and target to $0.7552 CHF (83 pips)
I hope that this analysis support you!!!
Good luck!!!
