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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

MACD-Divergences: Assessing Present Varying Exemplifications!_____ Hello Traders Investors And Community, _____ Welcome to this tutorial in which I will analyze the MACD-Divergence and its various types that can come up in the market movements. The MACD is an indicator developed in 1986 and since then established as a primary indicator in the oscillator types besides the RSI or stochastic. The indicator mainly has the function of spotting reversals and potential entry points into the market to catch the appropriate values and upcoming reversal developments. Although the indicator can be used as a single signal for market action only it is best combined with other technical analysis aspects such as candlesticks or volume. The main timeframe to apply the indicator should be the daily timeframe, it can be also applied to higher timeframes such as the weekly to assess broader trends. The indicator can also be applied on lower timeframes such as the 4-hour or hourly however in this case the fake signals getting higher. The MACD consists of 3 main elements, the first is the MACD-Line marked in my chart in orange which is calculated by the 12-day EMA (Exponential-Moving-Average) minus the 26-day EMA. The second element is the signal-line which is a 9-day EMA. Further comes the histogram which measures the distance from the MACD-Line to the signal line and the histogram is positive when the MACD-Line is above the signal-line as well as negative when it is below. The main signal happens when the MACD-Line crosses the signal-line when it crosses from the downside to the upside this is typically seen before a bullish reversal takes place and the same in reverse with the MACD-Line crossing the signal-line down when a bearish reversal takes place, in both cases also the histogram changes from positive to negative or negative to positive. In any case, it is always necessary to combine the MACD with the current price-action happening as in this case comes the interesting part with the divergences happening that can lead to dedicated signals. These divergences happen when there is a discrepancy between MACD and the actual price-action happening indicating a potential change in direction of actual price-action as the MACD shows up with these signs. In any case, it is unavoidable to consider the price-action together with the MACD as otherwise, it can lead to catching a fake-out and getting stopped out of the position what should be avoided in trading. The MACD also does not typically spot overbought or oversold conditions as it is an indicator consisting of EMAs it represents the previously developed price-actions in relation to the ongoing and upcoming price-actions. _____ Regular MACD Divergences: __ Classical MACD Crossover - The Classical MACD Crossover comes up when the MACD-line crosses the signal-line either from the upside to the downside or from the downside to the upside. Both versions can indicate a reversal into the direction the MACD-line crossed the signal-line however the timeframe and structure is important here. When this crossover happens on the lower timeframes below 6-hours it can happen that there are many fake signals with several crossovers behind each other while the price-action is actually trending into one direction. The higher timeframes such as the daily are therefore the best to apply this regular classical MACD crossover. Classical MACD Histogram Divergence - This divergence occurs when the histogram has formed a new high together with the price-action, for example, the histogram forms the new high at 0.3 in the MACD-histogram then the price-action moves further and forms a higher high exceeding the previous one however the MACD-histogram does not do a higher high also while staying below the 0.3 level. This indicates that the market is likely to reverse into the other direction because the histogram does not correspond with the actual price-action and therefore forms a divergence. This can be applied in the reverse direction as well and a good combination would be to look also at the volume or overbought and oversold conditions. Histogram Divergence Fakeout - In this case, it is the crucial part of the histogram divergence. The price-action and MACD fulfilled the initial requirements for a classical MACD histogram divergence and the price-action should markdown after forming the final high and the divergence, however in this case it does not happen instead the price-action moves lower a little bit signaling the possible normal development after this signal and then moves up again exceeding the previous high and stopping out traders who may have entered the market because of the divergence, after that the price-action can markdown finally and move lower, therefore it is necessary to look at the price-action also and see if the market is really ready to markdown after the signal. __ Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ - The Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ is a divergence in the price-action that marks two important confirmations including this a technical confirmation in the MACD normally seen in price-action. In this divergence, the price-action marks consecutive higher highs while the MACD forms a double-top with the rejection at the upper baseline confirming the double-top. This divergence is likely to reverse the previously established bullish trend to the downside and continue with bearish determinations. It is important to watch out for fakeouts before potentially entering and when this possibility is low it can be a good entry. Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅰ - This is the counterpart to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ. In this case the price-action marks lower lows in the structure in the best case also with falling volume and momentum while the MACD makes a double-bottom which is a good sign when both form that the price will likely reverse into the bullish direction. A trendline breakout of the previous established lower highs in the downtrend can also add additional confirmation to the final bullish reversal. __ Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅱ - This is a very interesting divergence as it combines the classical price-action formation double-top with the lower highs forming in the MACD. A confirmed double top alone can also be a strong signal for a reversal nevertheless with the additional MACD making lower lows this can add to the main bearish reversal coming in and accelerating it. A valid confirmation will take place when the price-action regularly confirms the double-top with the neckline breakout to the downside. Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅱ - Here is another divergence in which the price-action forms a reliable reversal-formation, in this case, a double-bottom which also can alone be the decisive factor for the final reversal, together then with the higher lows forming in the MACD it is a strong signal to reversing the trend into the bullish direction and similarly to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅱ it finally confirms with the neckline breakout by the established double-bottom with proper volume to the upside. __ Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅲ - This divergence has a good and appropriate application in the market formations to form. In this divergence, the price-actions form higher highs while the MACD forms lower lows signaling a bearish reversal to take place. A good confirmation occurs when the price-action closes below the lastly established lows and after that continues also further to form further bearish continuations, it can be a good point to spot the final reversal when the MACD looks like it develops the next lower high. Bullish Regular Divergence Ⅲ - This is the exact counterpart of the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅲ while the price-action forms lower lows in the structure the MACD develops higher highs showing this given divergence and likely to indicate the bullish reversal to take place sooner or later. Additionally, a falling volume and momentum in the actual price-action will lead to more increased validations followed by an upcoming rise in volatility above previously lower highs, these structures and developments are always also important. _____ Hidden MACD Divergences: __ Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅰ - This divergence is actually the counterpart to the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ and in this case, the MACD also forms a double top in the structure however unlikely as in the Bearish Regular Divergence Ⅰ in this case the price-action forms lower highs in the structure showing the exceptional weakness of the bulls as the price-action does not manages to maintain further higher highs, this is why the formation is finally likely to confirm bearishly to the downside and the reversal took place. Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅰ - In this divergence the MACD forms a double-bottom with both lows forming a lower baseline in the MACD-histogram structure while the price-action forms higher lows which is very important here as such a constellation is normally defined as bullish with the possibility to reverse, the double-bottom in the MACD then confirms the further bullishness to establish and likely bullish volatility to show up in the structure, the requirement is that the established uptrend-line does not invalidate to the downside. __ Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅱ - The next divergence is forming a classical reversal-development with the formation of a double-top in the price-action as the two highs form a horizontal baseline where the price-action rejects while the MACD is developing higher highs in the structure. In this case, the final confirmation sets place when the price-action breaks out below the neckline of the double-top in the structure which is the set-up for the further continuations bearishly to the downside, the best is to wait on the final confirmation before considering moving into. Bullish Hidden Divergence Ⅱ - This classical bullish reversal-formation marks out the potential stopping of the downtrend with two lows building the baseline of a potential double-bottom while the MACD is establishing this lower low structure it is the proper further confirmational part to develop a sufficient bullish reversal which will finally take place when the price-action breaks out above the upper neckline of the double-bottom to complete it and show up with further continuations to the upside. __ Bearish Hidden Divergence Ⅲ - When the price-action forms lower highs that do not maintain new higher highs in an uptrend it is always a sign that the uptrend is struggling and that it is likely to reverse together then with the higher highs divergence in the MACD to form the final bearish reversal has a high possibility to emerge which will validate when price-action moves below the previous lows in the uptrend and continues to the south. Bullish Hidden Divergence Ⅲ - With this form the uptrend and the higher highs structure that developed in the price-action have a tendency to reverse as the MACD forms the lower lows in the structure signaling that the MACD is already doing the markdown that follows also in the price-action. In this case the final confirmation will take place with a breakout below the established ascending trend-line after which a bearish continuation will likely follow up. _____ Therefore moving through all these important different forms the MACD can be a substantial indicator for spotting reversals in the structure when done right. It is always necessary to maintain the objection to the current situation and further technical factors to apply the MACD-divergences rightly. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day as well as weekend, and all the best to you! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets. _____
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by VincePrince
20
HNT seems ready for a move higherHNT seems ready to move higher. On the weekly timeframe a trendline is forming. The weekly EMA21 just went under the current price. On the 12H it reclamed a level of support (around 1.7-1.75) This is also near the 0.382 trend-based fib-level (1.689 to be precise) Targets are on the chart. First target is 3 USDT. Followed by 3.4USDT. The 3USDT-target is confluent with the 0.091 trend-based Fib-level. I've found that to be a good level to place orders. On the lower timeframes there might be a trade around 2.5USDT. The 2.5-level is the previous Daily high.
Long
by FibonaccIvo
1
GBPJPY SHORT/SELL🔰 Pair Name : EUR/JPY 🔰 Time Frame : 4H/ DAILY 🔰 Scale Type : LONG Scale 🔰 Direction : SHORT/SELL The GBP/JPY pair's sensitivity to shifts in global risk sentiment makes it a valuable tool for assessing broader market outlooks. 🌐 Its responsiveness aligns it with changes in global risk appetite, creating a strong correlation. In this context, the pair finds support at the ¥180 level and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, a widely recognized technical indicator. 📊 These levels are key reference points for traders. The dynamic of the GBP/JPY is influenced by the divergent monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. 🏦🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇯🇵 This policy disparity sets the stage for potential catalysts that could drive the pair's movement. Given this policy contrast, an uptrend in the GBP/JPY is a possibility worth considering. However, seasoned traders emphasize patience and prudent market entry. 🚀 The potential for a climb to ¥184 and beyond, possibly reaching ¥185, is on the horizon. Navigating the inherent volatility of the GBP/JPY requires acknowledging the risk. A sustained drop below ¥175 is crucial to challenge the prevailing trend. ⚖️ The recent pullback in the pair offers a strategic opportunity for knowledgeable traders to accumulate "undervalued" British pounds against the Japanese yen. 📉⚖️ Yet, risk management and thorough analysis are paramount when dealing with the pair's inherent unpredictability. Recent trading dynamics provide valuable insights into the GBP/JPY's behavior and potential trajectory. Its risk-sensitive nature, reliance on technical indicators, and the interplay of divergent monetary policies contribute to its intricate movement. As the market evolves, traders should exercise patience and prudence while capitalizing on the opportunities and challenges presented by this currency pair. 📈📊📉 #GBPJPYAnalysis #MarketInsights
Short
by Moon_SmartMoney
BTC/USD and its crucial support and resistance areaLooking at this Daily BTC/USD Bitstamp chart from around Oct 2020 to 29th July 2023 (today) we can see a few obvious chart patterns that BTC is still in on this daily chart. 1) Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern AKA a Broadening Wedge Pattern/Megaphone Pattern 2) Ascending Channel Pattern 3) Descending Channel Pattern 4) Rising Wedge Pattern We can clearly see the crucial range that BTC must break ABOVE and turn into strong support, which is around $28,709 to $32,360 as highlighted by the channel with horizontal dotted lines with yellow shading. This area has been both strong support and resistance quite a few times over the years. As a Strong Support range: Sat 2nd Jan 2021 to Mon 1st Feb 2021 Wed 19th May 2021 to Fri 23rd Jul 2021 As a Strong Resistance range: Mon 9th May 2022 to Sun 12th Jun 2022 Monday 20th Mar 2023 to Monday 8th May 2023 Mon 29th May 2023 (1day) Wednesday 21st Jun 2023 to 29th Just 2023 (as of typing this) Using @LuxAlgo Buyside & Sellside Liquidity indicator, we can see that BTC is slowly filling up its Liquidity Void from around $29,611 to its bottom at $27,051. As we can see from the history of the chart, quite a few of Liquidity Voids do end up getting filled back up even after a long period of year and a half. We can also see that a Buyside Liquidity line is located almost exactly on the top of our important support/resistance area. Using the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) in its Delta mode, we can see what the Traded Volume difference was on each of the Volume Profile Bars for this entire charts visible range. Note that the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow. Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart. Note that BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis, the Lower Band is still pointing downwards and the Upper Band looks like it may curve downwards. I have added a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) indicator from Thur 15th Jun 2023 to Sat 29th July 2023 (as of typing this). The FRVP is also in its Delta mode and you can clearly see the Traded Volume differences for each Bar. Note that again the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow. Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator (CMF) we can see that the CMF Line is still in the Distribution Zone under its 0.00 Base Line and note that it is still Below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) indicator. Note that the LSMA has curved upwards at the moment. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum has dropped and the RSI Line is still below its 9 Period EMA line. Using the Bollinger Bands on the RSI we can see that the RSI now has little bit of room to move downwards and a lot of room to move upwards before becoming over extended/overbought/oversold. It really is good practice to be on the lookout for any Convergence and Divergence with the RSI and the Price. The key takeaway from this post, the Resistance Area from around $28,709 to $32,360 is very, very important! Note we also have a Buyside Liquidity Line located almost directly on $32,360. For the Upside: A successful Daily Candle CLOSE above the $32,360 level and any successful re-test as strong support will be a good sign of continued positive momentum to come. For the Downside: Failure to CLOSE a Daily Candle above the $32,360 level will be a good sign of continued sideways to eventual negative momentum. Anyway, i hope this post is helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
EURUSD, Controversy with the 200-week EMAAfter the 441-day correction that began after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the euro is correcting its sharp downward trend. In the middle of this correction, by hitting its 200-week EMA in the weekly time frame, it has attracted all eyes to see if this upward moving average is broken or not. This point is very key because it can initiate a continuation of a larger downtrend or, in the worst case, a new uptrend. Considering the possibility of an increase in the US interest rate from 5% to 5.25%, there is a possibility that the value of the US dollar will rise again and, of course, the DXY index will strengthen, therefore, there is a weakening of the EUR/USD and a rejection from the EMA. Based on the current sentiment of the market, my personal opinion is a slow crossing of the moving average.
by Mahdi_Khayyami
1
Choosing the Right Moving AverageMastering Moving Averages: A Comprehensive Guide to Choosing the Right One for Your Trading Strategy Moving averages are among the most widely used technical indicators in trading. They serve as a simple and effective way to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential entry and exit points for trades. With numerous types of moving averages available, determining the best fit for your trading strategy can be a challenge. In this comprehensive guide, we will delve into the various types of moving averages, their strengths and weaknesses, and when to use them to maximize your trading profits. Simple Moving Average (SMA) The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the most basic type of moving average. It calculates the average price of an asset over a specific time period, typically 20, 50, or 200 days. The SMA smooths out the price data by creating a constantly updating average price, providing a clear picture of the asset's direction of movement. I personally use the SMA for long-term trading strategies because it offers a more stable picture of the asset's direction of movement. The SMA is also useful in identifying potential support and resistance levels, which are critical indicators for traders. However, the SMA can be slow to respond to changes in price, which can result in missed opportunities for short-term traders. Advantages of SMA 1. Easy to calculate and understand. 2. Provides a stable picture of the asset's direction of movement. 3. Useful in identifying potential support and resistance levels. Disadvantages of SMA 1. Slow to respond to changes in price. 2. Can lag behind the current price action, leading to missed opportunities. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a more complex type of moving average that places greater weight on recent price data. This weighting provides the EMA with a more immediate response to price changes than the SMA, making it a popular choice for short-term traders. The EMA is calculated by taking the weighted average of the asset's price over a specified time period, giving more weight to recent prices. Traders use the EMA for short-term trading strategies because it offers a more immediate response to price changes, which is crucial for short-term trades. The EMA is also useful in identifying potential price reversals, support and resistance levels, and momentum. However, the EMA can be more volatile than the SMA, which can lead to false signals and increased risk. Advantages of EMA 1. Provides a more immediate response to price changes. 2. Useful for short-term trading strategies. 3. Helps identify potential price reversals and momentum shifts. Disadvantages of EMA 1. Can be more volatile than the SMA, leading to false signals. 2. May require more complex calculations than the SMA. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is another type of moving average that places a greater weight on recent prices. Unlike the EMA, the WMA assigns a weight to each price point based on its position in the time period. This means that the most recent prices receive the highest weight, with each price point receiving a progressively lower weight as you move back in time. Traders use the WMA for short-term trading strategies when they want a more sensitive indicator than the SMA. The WMA is also useful in identifying potential price reversals and support and resistance levels. However, the WMA can be more volatile than the SMA, which can lead to false signals and increased risk. Advantages of WMA 1. Provides a more sensitive indicator than the SMA. 2. Useful for short-term trading strategies. 3. Helps identify potential price reversals and support and resistance levels. Disadvantages of WMA 1. Can be more volatile than the SMA, leading to false signals. 2. equires more complex calculations than the SMA. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is a type of moving average that applies a smoothing factor to the price data, resulting in a smoother curve. The SMMA places an equal weight on all price data, with the smoothing factor determining the weight given to each data point. Traders use the SMMA when they want a smoother curve to analyze the asset's trend. The SMMA is useful in identifying potential support and resistance levels and entry and exit points. However, the SMMA can be slow to respond to changes in price, which can lead to missed opportunities for short-term traders. Advantages of SMMA 1. Provides a smoother curve for trend analysis. 2. Useful in identifying potential support and resistance levels and entry and exit points. 3. Less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. Disadvantages of SMMA 1. Can be slow to respond to changes in price. 2. Not as suitable for short-term trading strategies. Which Moving Average Should You Use? The type of moving average you should use depends on your trading strategy and time frame. If you are a long-term trader, you may want to use the SMA or WMA, as they provide a more stable picture of the asset's direction of movement. If you are a short-term trader, you may want to use the EMA or WMA, as they provide a more sensitive indicator of price changes. Additionally, if you are looking for a smoother curve to analyze, the SMMA may be the best option. It is essential to note that moving averages should not be used in isolation. They should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as oscillators or volume indicators, to confirm potential buy and sell signals. It is also crucial to consider the market conditions, such as volatility and liquidity, when choosing a moving average for your trading strategy. How to Combine Moving Averages for Better Trading Signals 1. Use multiple timeframes: Employing moving averages from different timeframes can help you identify both short-term and long-term trends, as well as potential entry and exit points. 2. Use multiple types of moving averages: Combining different types of moving averages, such as the SMA and EMA, can help you identify trend reversals and filter out false signals. 3. Apply other technical indicators: To confirm the signals provided by moving averages, use additional technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), or the Bollinger Bands. Strengths and Weaknesses of Moving Averages Each type of moving average has its strengths and weaknesses, depending on the trading strategy and time frame. Here is a summary of the main differences between the four types of moving averages: 1. SMA: provides a more stable picture of the asset's direction of movement, but can be slow to respond to changes in price. 2. EMA: provides a more immediate response to price changes, making it a popular choice for short-term traders, but can be more volatile than the SMA. 3. WMA: assigns a weight to each price point based on its position in the time period, providing a more sensitive indicator than the SMA, but can be more volatile than the SMA. 4. SMMA: applies a smoothing factor to the price data, resulting in a smoother curve, but can be slow to respond to changes in price. It is important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each type of moving average to make an informed decision when selecting a moving average for your trading strategy. Conclusion Moving averages are a powerful tool in a trader's arsenal, but choosing the right type can be challenging. The SMA, EMA, WMA, and SMMA each have their advantages and disadvantages, and the one you choose should depend on your trading strategy and time frame. By combining moving averages with other technical indicators and considering market conditions, you can maximize your trading profits. As a trader with experience in using various technical indicators, I've found moving averages to be quite helpful in identifying trends and potential entry and exit points. However, despite the usefulness of moving averages, I personally prefer indicators that use linear regression. The reason for my preference is that linear regression-based indicators, such as the "Regression Envelope MTF", take into account the slope of the trend, rather than assuming that the trend is linear. This means that the bands will adapt to the slope of the trend, providing more accurate signals in trending markets. For instance, I typically use the "Regression Envelope MTF" (one of my indicators that I have just recently published) on the daily chart with a parameter setting of 250 periods. This allows me to quickly see where the price is positioned relative to the past year's trend. I find this approach to be particularly insightful and beneficial for my trading decisions. Remember to always use caution when trading, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. It is also essential to continue learning and refining your trading strategies to stay ahead of the curve and become a successful trader.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Julien_Eche
03/04/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $29202.3 Last weeks low: $27844.3 Midpoint: $26486.3 From the volatility of the FED's FOMC announcement, the volatility has continued into last weeks price action in BTC. The 1H 200EMA had price ranging underneath it between the week low and the 0.25 quarter line. Once price had reclaimed 0.25 and had a successful retest, the 1H 200EMA was also reclaimed and a large rally followed. Since then the moving average has acted as support as it did for the previous week, this still remains one of the most important indicators for Bitcoins momentum. With last weeks price action beginning and ending at the midpoint of the weekly range, it's clear that there are slowing momentum concerns. That coupled with the wick up to $29200 to grab liquidity and stop out shorts from the double top of two weeks ago. I do think we are poised to retest 25.2k at some stage or another, it's a very key level that represents the top of the range we spent 9 months in, which is now the floor of our new range that reaches 32.5k. The potential for a bulltrap rally up near the ranges midpoint of 30-31k before retesting 25.2k would be my guess, however it is just that, a guess for now. I would like to see certain structure taking place before entering any trades that follows this narrative. For example an impulse rally above 29.2k that stops out shorts and squeezes higher before rejecting aggressively reaching 30.5-31k, I think this will get enough bulls excited to trap them for the dip down to 25.2k.
by ProR35
Bitcoin on the daily pt.4We have a pivotal moment For BTC, we had a change of character (CHoCH) as well as a break below the diagonal supporting trendline in favour of the bears. With a new Lower Low below the 1D 200EMA needing a reaction off the oversold RSI to stop its decent towards the final target I initially had planned and has shown since the first post on this. A strong reaction brings us back up to the underside of that previous support and now testing resistance. BTC needs to accept over 24k in order to regain any short term hope of bullish continuation. If not, I fear we're setting up to go lower.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ProR35
2
Bitcoin on the daily pt.3We're continuing the downward trend since the double top in the key area swing high range following the prediction path well but ahead of schedule. The 1D 200EMA support has failed for now, it will be interesting to see if the bulls can regain it, I think BTC takes a real tumble down if not as shown in the chart. BTC has broken the diagonal supporting trendline too, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a retest to confirm both the trendline and the 9EMA as resistance.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
13/02/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $23462.5 Last weeks low: $22446.7 Midpoint: $21431 As BTC retraces down through the FVG that I previously stated I had my eye on, price has now hit both 1D & 4H 200EMA and the top of the previous consolidation range. Last week this area is where I stated I would look to do business as it provides decent support on the HTF, making sure the 1D & 4H 200EMA holds is pivotal continuing upward momentum. Personally without any big news events this is a solid place to start building Longs.
by ProR35
ETH/USD: Daily perspective to watch in Ethereum priceIn Daily timeframe, Ethereum trying to break-out the EMA 200 and we see another chance that may to climb to $1,638 USD, but if we break-out this resistance key in this reaction point, we could to see a bulls enter here This look a very interesting that we can to long position in the specify price that I will want in this screenshot in the next analysis of my long position in H2 timeframe I hope that this idea support you and find up news idea to trade crypto!!!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us. BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern. Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe. At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards. BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe. Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator. Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart: BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds. Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud: The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment. The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards. Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916. V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart) V = B - (C-B) = D C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622 B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916 D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023 D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023 Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative). Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA. From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023. From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes. Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready. Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
10
My Price Analysis of LINKBTC on December 10, 2022Hello friends. Today, according to the LINKBTC chart, I noticed that the chart is generally going down and I have drawn the short-term channel in the 1-hour time frame. The formation of EMAs of 50, 100 and 200 assures that the market is bearish. On the other hand, this arrangement is being formed in the 2-hour time frame. On the other hand, the MACD indicator gives a buy signal. My analysis of this signal is that it can either be a fake signal or a short-term signal that will return to its downward channel after encountering the upcoming resistance. and continue its downward trend.
Short
by Saleh_Toodarvari
Everything I've learned about the RSI BINANCE:BTCUSDT In this post, I'll make an attempt to share everything I've learned over the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Over the past 24 months. Nothing described in this post is financial advice, it's just me, sharing thoughts and ideas with you. nb: this post is more suited for traders and investors that are already educated about the RSI Indicators. A brief introduction about the indicator itself : The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate whether it's better to buy, sell, or wait. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100. The RSI is probably the most used oscillator in finance nowadays, by both retail traders and institutions, hence meaning that when used well , it can be used as a great edge to profitability. RSI popular uses : - An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30. - The RSI can give us insights on a potential trend's loss of momentum or validity when the price pivots levels are diverging with the RSI indicator (hidden and regular divergences) - The most popular RSI length is 14 periods. My findings 1. Overbought and oversold: myth or reality? RSI's 30 and 70 levels never proved themselves to be a strong enough edge for me to be used as a standalone signal for trade entries. As an example, just look at the irregularity of the results you would get when using just these zones : My take on it is that as a price oscillator when it crosses into extremes, it simply means price momentum is at extreme levels. To me it's basically like a mountain cyclist in the middle of a race: he might very well go faster and higher, however, the quicker and higher he goes the more unlikely he is to keep up with that speed. Eventually, he might either decrease its speed or even go backward. What does this tell us ? The RSI 30 and 70 levels seem to be better used when used as timing indicators. For example, the 70 and 30 levels could be used as a filter for a trader to eliminate market noise when using a trend reversal strategy (mean-reversion). For trend traders, the levels could be used to timing signals where they'll start looking for price to do a pullback (consolidation) to get in the trend. My experience using the 30 and 70 levels as exit signals however has been better (when it comes to using it as the only signal for a trade exit). Say you are long on BTCUSD, in profit, and you get an RSI closure above 70. Well, in that case, you could exit 50% of your position and wait for the oscillator to cross down the 70 levels to exit the rest (as the overbought and oversold zones are rarely a defining factor for trend reversals and corrections). 2. Divergences in the overbought and oversold zones : The lower the time frame you are trading on is, the higher the noise when it comes to divergences, especially with volatile assets such as BTCUSD. So you might want to filter out most of the ones you see to only take the best ones. On the 15M and 5M timeframes, on BTCUSD, I find that on average about 1/3 of the divergences I see play out. However, we are not expected to take every divergence we see. Here's what has helped me get better results with divergences : - When approaching supply and demand zones, especially the higher timeframe ones, we might want to be more aggressive with the divergences we enter into. As the hit rate is not always amazing, the R:R is usually much better, and if the trade works out, it might give you great results which accounts for the low win rate. - If you want to increase your win rate, I also find that going for higher timeframes is usually better when it comes to divergences. - Take only divergences where RSI divergence's first pivot point is over 70 or under 30. Ideally, you don't want the noise to go below 60, or above 40, so that your trade has the necessary momentum to play out. - For extra confirmation, wait for a break of the noise level to enter the trade. - Regular and hidden divergences play hand in hand creating a form of momentum equilibrium. Hidden divergences always create regular divergences and vice versa. Hence a hidden divergence can be considered an early pullback warning to get in a bigger-picture trend. - Regular divergences tend to play out better than hidden divergences. This is especially true when the volume is decreasing, or after a longer period of consolidation when volatility has been contracting and might be about to expand soon. - Regular divergences in strong trends can be both a disaster and a treat. "The trend is your friend". This saying is especially true here. However, 2-3 drives of regular divergences are a great indication of a potential reversal, with enough confirmation factors to produce (often time) a great entry. - The angle of the trend line between divergences pivot points, both on the price chart and the RSI, can be a good indication of the severity of the divergence occurring. - The ideal lookback period for detecting divergences for me has proved to be between 5 and 28 bars. (Below 5 bars is not enough to confirm a true pivot point for me and above 28 bars has probably already played out in past price movements). - Like all edges, using a divergence strategy always produces better results when used in confluence with other signals. I find the best confluences happen when divergences occur: alongside a stochastic cross, near medium-slow moving averages, near horizontal supply and demand zones, alongside volatility expansion, when the volume is decreasing (meaning market makes are in disagreement with the move occurring), near Bollinger bands 2.5 to 3 standard deviations (period 20). - Convergence between your timeframes and higher timeframes is key to understanding how to better choose your trades. Try to play the big divergences but enter smaller timeframes divergences. - When you lose a divergence trade, don't get disappointed. Jump back in because often time, and price will need to do several divergences before getting in your desired direction (however, be careful not to jump in tilt mod. Know your win rate and R:R and keep your money management serious. You'll get blown out if you start tilting on this, especially if you trade reversals with divergences, as it's difficult to get the right timing every time). 3. RSI as a trend filter? - I've found that in trending markets, when RSI's Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above the 50 line, it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses. - I've found that in trending markets when the RSI line crosses above the EMA (I use a 12 period), it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses. - As an indication of the trend's direction, I don't find any value in using bullish and bearish control zones. The only use I can find them is when using them for divergence levels filters. This is the end of the first post of this 2 parts series. There's just so much more you can discover about this indicator that it simply cannot be constricted to a few lines of writing. However, you are welcome to take a few of my findings and go test them out using replay and backtesting. See for yourself, and find your balance. Most of my learnings have been made through screentime, trial, and error, backtesting, mistakes, and research. Have a good day, Arthur Girard
Education
by arthurgirard15