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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

How to Catch a Falling Knife by the HandleI'm not suggesting here that the broader equity market is going to violently sell-off soon or anything like that. I figure that posting an idea on such a scenario might be useful just in case volatility picks up a few knots with some foreseeable seasonal headwinds. Also, the broader equity market is probably going to sell off soon. Now that the possibility of such an event has been thrown out there, I offer something that could make the whole experience even more fun than meme stocks. That would be the use of the 186-period exponential moving average to locate the approximate price level where the first safe area to take profits would be under a crash scenario. Typically, you don't want to "catch falling knives", or any other falling weapon because it is assumed that the trader catching said knife/weapon thinks he has caught the bottom. Of course, he has done the opposite and is in fact, holding a bag of something that will drop in value very soon and the hand he is holding it with can barely hang on because he missed the knife's handle on the way down. While this scenario happens all too often, i believe that catching a falling knife can be done safely and profitably if using the 186 EMA and a SHORT position. What you are then catching is not the stock/derivative itself at a discount long, but rather closing out a short knife that you threw a while back for extreme profits. The key is that the 186 EMA offers you a nearly perfect target to safely exit an extreme short position, without using complicated time/price methods that are usually esoteric to some extent. Just take a look at the chart displayed above, which offers a detailed look into the kind of weapons that SP Futures traders had to deal with over the years. To fully appreciate the results of this demonstration, you must understand the difficulty of trading this futures market. The degree of leverage is high enough to wipe out new entrants within hours and is also severe enough whereby the assumptions required to use Wave Principle cannot be relied upon. In summary, the fact that this EMA either caught outright or was the cause of the first major bounce of ALL significant selloffs over the past 10 years is remarkable. On the weekly timeframe, it will undoubtedly prove useful for bearish swing traders using an intermediate time horizon. In a whipsaw scenario intraday, the 186 can be quickly applied in a pinch, which can prevent panic selling in all sorts of situations. The uses for this tool are many and I am lucky to have randomly stumbled upon it about a year ago when messing around with pinescript for the first time. In fact - see for yourself how the 186 EMA somehow plays a structural role in at least one timeframe (even the 5-min at times) of any given price chart. The key is to find which timeframe the 186 is fitting most closely with at the current time. Remember, use wisely when catching weapon-profits, not weapon-long-positions. -PiggishMagician AMEX:SPY SP:SPX GLOBALPRIME:US500
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
7
BITCOIN - Complete Technical AnalysisRussia officially declared war on Ukraine this week, and four days have passed since the conflict between the two countries, and the conflict has intensified. The start of the war was accompanied by a sharp drop in bitcoin, but on the same day, it was strongly supported, and the price again attacked the resistance of $40,000, but eventually, the daily candle closed at the level of $39,000. In recent days, there has been more volatility due to the negative news of the Bitcoin war, but with the possibility of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, some experts believe that #Bitcoin can start a rising wave again after the end of these tensions. This war once again showed the world the importance of digital currencies and bitcoins. While many bank cards in Ukraine are blocked, and people do not have access to their accounts, bitcoin wallets, and digital currencies have become more active. This proves the world's need for a decentralized financial network such as digital currencies. Bitcoin was well supported on February 24 after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the sharp fall of the price and returned to the price of $34,322, and on February 26, reached the resistance level of $40,000 and the moving average, which is an important resistance area. For Bitcoin. The moving average is trending up, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the middle of the market, which is a signal that the market is bullish. If the cows can stabilize the price above the moving average, the #BTC will likely rise to the $45,821 range, which is a strong resistance area. If Bitcoin falls below this range, it will probably fluctuate between $36,000 and $39,000 for a few days, and then if this area breaks down further, further Bitcoin declines could lead to a drop in price to $32,900.
by MonoCoinSignal
28
MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME ANALYSISHaving Received countless of Approach on How I look at the Market to gain the Right Directional Bias, here I laid it out bear for your digestion. I will like to say thank you for reading all my previous post and do not hesitate to comment or ask question. TOP DOWN ANALYSIS APPROACH This makes it easier to know which Direction you want to plan your trade in alignment to the HIGHER TIME FRAME. I hope this will help your ongoing trader development and takes out those confusion when it comes to organising your bias,when to trade and when to be patient and when to start looking for opportunities on lower timeframe to then reduce your risk and keep you focus. I will start from the Monthly Chart on ONEUSD a cryptocurrency called HARMONY that I believe will 10X it’s current price as we progress in Blockchain takeover MONTHLY CHART Monthly TimeFrame Blue 12EMA A Support that act like a trendline WEEKLY CHART Same like Monthly 12EMA But here Orange 36EMA on Weekly:A Retracement level to consider adding new Position in the Direction of the HTF We saw a slowing week on the last red That leads to the last week bounce DAILY CHART 36EMA rejection Bounce on DAILY Cautious area to take profit Look for Rejection Look to BUY Cheaper on OTF 8 HOURLY CHART 36EMA on 8HR with a Candlestick or PRICE ACTION to look for the Discounted LONGS and 2 good Confluences Candlesticks HAMMER Price Action + 36EMA bounce In Between the 200EMA 633EMA is a VOLATILITY GAP This is where I observably expect price to bounce Couple times in betweenbefore we can make a directional headway. A VOLATILE REGION You can identify in any market as price proceeds. So this gives you a readiness awareness of what to expect and for how long. 8HOURS represent a whole trading SESSION 6HOUR CHART Higher High 200EMA Selloff on 6hr Corresponds the36EMA on DAILY BULLISH ENGULFING on 6hr 36EMA after a potential longer term 8hr (All Asian Session) Price Bounce And maintaining of Higher Low Price Structure 4HOUR CHART Short Term Break of Structure (BOS) on 4hr Chart is a good caution to let us know that price won't just rise so easily higher 2 HOUR CHART For Price to Change Direction We have seen 1st 2hrs of hitting 200EMA rejection Another 2hours of Price Slowing without making a new low follow by 2hrs of another Price Slowing after a Preceding Downward Selloff Spiral A clear indication of good 6hrs of consolidation That eventually break out higher.Now we have a good reason to look for BUY OPPS on Smaller TF The lower timeframe analysis will follow on hourly to minute charts.
BINANCE:ONEUSDLong
by LukmanBalogun
2
MATIC/USDHere is a closer look at this MATIC 1d Binance chart. MATIC is in a massive Ascending Triangle Pattern on the 1 day chart. An Ascending Triangle Pattern is potentially a Bullish Continuation Pattern. The APEX of this Triangle Pattern is around July 2022. For your viewing pleasure, I have added various support and resistance lines within this Ascending Triangle. At the moment, MATIC is ABOVE its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1 day timeframe. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are converging inwards indicating volatility has slowed at the moment. Note that MATIC is still above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1 day timeframe. MATIC is above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the Fixed Range of 11x daily candle that i have selected. Note that MATIC is still above its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts Visible Range. Note that Volume is still low on this Binance chart and note that the last 8x Volume Bars have been BELOW its Volume 20 Period MA. Looking at the Average Direction Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is still strong but has lost some strength with the ADX (Orange Line) dropping slightly to 27.562 below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 27.585. Note that Negative Momentum has dropped sharply with the -DI (Red Line) dropping to 26.771. Positive Mmentum has also dropped slightly but not as sharply with the +DI (Green Line) at 18.693. For sustainable upwards momentum to continue, we need the +DI (Green Line) to CROSS back ABOVE the -DI (Red Line) on this 1 day timeframe. Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that momentum is upwards at the moment and the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still ABOVE its Signal Line (Orange Line) on this 1 day timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been above the 0.0 Base Line in the Positive Zone since 7th Jan 2022 on this 1 day timeframe. Be on the lookout for when the MACD Line crosses back above the 0.0 Base Line into the Positive Zone. Taking a quick look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum at the moment is slightly downwards. Not that the RSI (Purple Line) is still ABOVE its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of upwards momentum strength at the moment. Be on the lookout just incase the RSI (Purple Line) drops more and crosses back below its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line). MATIC needs to stay above the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and the LSMA indicator for any longterm upwards momentum to be sustainable. If BTC takes another nose dive and causes MATIC to drop downwards out of the Ascending Triangle Pattern then MATIC may drop to its VPVR POC around $0.83 so we need to keep an eye on what BTC is doing as BTC still controls the market direction. If the Ascending Triangle Pattern stays valid, then MATIC may be in for a big move up to possibly well above $10 if it successfully breaks back above the Ascending Triangle Resistance line. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
M
by entertheroach
1
ADA/USDHere is a closer look at this ADA 1 day Binance chart. As you can see, ADA is in a massive Descending Triangle Pattern. A Descending Triangle Pattern is potentially a Bearish Continuation Pattern. Note that ADA is still ABOVE its Longterm Pitchfork Median Line on this 1 day timeframe. ADA is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1 day timeframe. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are starting to contract and pinch inwards. At the moment ADA is above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 day timeframe. Volume is still low on this Binance daily chart and note that the last 13x daily Volume Bars have been below its Volume 20 Period Moving Average. At the moment ADA is above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 12x daily candles that i have selected. If we zoom in on the chart, at the moment ADA is below its Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR POC) for this charts visible range. If we look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is very weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 16.185 and dropping below the 20 Threshold and under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 18.559. Positive Momentum has increased with the +DI (Green Line) dropping slightly to 21.931. Negative Momentum has decreased with the -DI (Red Line) dropping to 20.268. We need the +DI (Green line) to stay above the -DI (Red Line) and move further apart. Taking a quick look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is indicating momentum is upwards at the moment and it is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still under the 0.0 Base Line in the Negative Zone. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been above the 0.0 Base Line in the Positive Zone since 20th Jan 2022 on this 1 day timeframe. Taking a quick look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum is downwards art the moment and note that the RSI (Purple Line) is still above its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) but because momentum is downwards we need to keep an eye on the RSI (Purple Line) the close it gets to its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line). At the moment i still think it's Sideways at best or Downwards at worst for ADA. For any longterm recovery to become sustainable for ADA, we need ADA to make a higher high and CLOSE a daily candle ABOVE the $1.63 blue highlighted area. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by entertheroach
4
ETH looking good hereETH has continued it's retrace back towards both the major support line and the 200 EMA as we discussed in the linked ideas. We are now partially in my Buy Zone and seller momentum is slowing. I'm interested in a small long here, and will add if it drops. Good Luck. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
DJI - longterm Pitchfork Pattern is still valid since July 1932With all this talk about another great depression like stock market crash happening in the very near future, i thought i’d join the fun and take a look and analyse the DJI Monthly Chart. Using an extended Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C), we can clearly see that the DJI has been in an Upwards Pitchfork Pattern since the Month of the 1st July 1932. Chart wise, you can see The Wall Street Crash of 1929 which started the Month of the 2nd September 1929 and ended the Month of the 1st July 1932. History says the crash ended on 13th Nov 1929 but chart wise it didn’t, because the bottom turned out to be around $40 on the 1st July 1932 not $195 on the 13th Nov 1929. Chart wise, the 2020 Covid-19 crash started in the Month of 2nd Jan 2020 with what’s looks like a Monthly Shooting Star Candle which then lead to 2 more Bearish Monthly Candles. The Candle from the Month of 2nd March wicked all the way down to the depths of hell & found strong support from its Upper Yellow Pitchfork Support Line, the price then managed to close back above its Upper Light Green Pitchfork Support Line. Note that the last time the DJI closed a Monthly Candle below its Pitchfork Median Line was the Month of the 2nd Feb 2009. The Price eventually made it its way back ABOVE its Pitchfork Median Line on the month of the 1st April 2009. At the moment, DJI has found strong resistance from its Upper Light Blue Pitchfork Resistance Line. What is interesting is that this Pitchfork Resistance Line served as strong resistance from the Month of the 3rd May 1999 - 3rd Jan 2000, note that the DJI failed to close a Monthly candle above this level and has not closed a Monthly candle above this Pitchfork Resistance Line since the Month of the 2nd Sept 1929. If we take a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is curving downwards and if it crosses back under the Signal Line (Orange Line) then that will be a potential sell signal on this 1 Month timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line since the Month of 1st Sept 2010. Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Positive Momentum has weakened on this 1 Month timeframe with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 23.82 and Negative Momentum has risen with the -DI (Red Line) at 14.94. Note that the Trend Strength is sideways with the ADX (Orange Line) at 21.93 and still above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 21.05. If the -DI (Red Line) ever crosses back ABOVE the +DI (Green Line) then that would mean that Negative Momentum has become DOMINANT over Positive Momentum on this 1 Month timeframe. If we look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI (Purple Line) has dropped out of the Overbought Zone at the moment. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is also below its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of weakness for Positive Momentum on this 1 Month timeframe. Note that we also have DIVERGANCE with the Price and the RSI on this 1 Month timeframe. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 dropped to around -89%. A drop of -89% from the price level at the moment would take DJI Price to around $3,800. The Covid-19 Crash of 2020 dropped to around -38%. A drop of -38% from the price level at the moment would take the DJI Price to around $21,550. Here is a closer look at this 1 Month chart. Note that if DJI does drop massively again then it has potentially 4 Pitchfork Support Levels to support it before it reaches the Pitchfork Median Line. Note that the Upper Dark Green Pitchfork Support Line will be a crucial level to watch as it has acted as support & resistance on multiple occasions over the last 121 years. I hope this post has been helpful with your trading ;-) On a funny note, some may wonder whether or not the 1929 crash happened to mark the conception of a certain individual called Warren Buffett ;-)
TVC:DJI
by entertheroach
4
Polkadot Price PredictionDOT has edged lower after pulling back from Thursday’s high of 27.79. The altcoin has been on a downtrend since early November when it hit its all-time high at 55.28. Currently, Polkadot's price was down by 3.77% at 25.35. On a four-hour chart, it is trading below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. It is also below the long-term 200-day EMA. In the short term, I expect the crypto to remain under pressure. It may trade within a horizontal channel between the week’s low of 24.17 and the 50-day EMA at 26.80709039. Below the range’s lower border, the bears will be eyeing a 5-month low of 20.00. On the upside, a move above the upper border will likely place the resistance level at 30.02. However, as long as it remains below the 200-day EMA at 32.69, the Polkadot price will remain in a bear market.
COINBASE:DOTUSD
by thomasfullerofficial
Undervalued Stock Series #1 : CRSRThe share price for this company have been absolutely beaten down since February 2021.. and that is good for me. The numbers for this company is good and several DCF valuations have suggested that the current price is on average 60% under the fair price. On the technicals, there is no reason for me to buy some shares. Price trading way under the 100-200 EMA cloud and price structures doesn't suggest the bulls have taken over yet. We wait. First sign I am looking for is the highs of the price structure is broken and moving way up towards the EMA cloud.
NASDAQ:CRSRLong
by sufiansaid
GBPUSD OutlookDisclaimer on, This is a personal opinion, I am not responsible on your trading results. Trade with your own risk. The GBPUSD currency pair is still in a correction condition from its major trend (Bearish), if it is observed that the correction has stopped at the 90 EMA area which also coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. Furthermore, the decline will continue to at least reach the level of 1.33300 - 1.32900 which is the classic support area. If you look closely at the daily time frame, the currency pair is forming a descending broadening wedge pattern.
Short
by riandwip686
VeChain - 1 day chart updateNote that VeChain (VET) is still in a longterm uptrend. Using the Ichimoku Cloud settings of 20,60,120,30, but note I’m only using the cloud portion, we can clearly see that VET is still in the Bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. VET is BELOW is Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 period SMA. Note that the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands are starting to contract and pinch inwards. Looking at the Schiff Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C), note that VET is still ABOVE its Schiff Pitchfork Median Line. A continuation of daily closes ABOVE this level is absolutely crucial. VET is BELOW its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1d timeframe. A close below the LSMA is a potential sell signal for this indicator, so be on the lookout for when VET crosses & closes back above the LSMA. VET is back ABOVE its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 10 daily candles that i have selected. VET is still ABOVE its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this chart's visible range. The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is indicating the trend strength has dropped with the ADX (Orange Line) at 22.08 and is below its 9 Period EMA (Black line) which is at 25.17. The +DI (Green Line) has dropped to 17.90 but is still above its -DI (Red Line) which has also dropped to 17.11. This indicates Positive Momentum is still stronger than Negative Momentum on this 1d timeframe. Note that both the -DI (Red Line) and +DI (Green Line) have now turned sideways. The OnBalanceVolume (OBV) is indicating momentum is sideways at the moment. Note that the OBV (Blue Line) is back ABOVE its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) indicating a strengthening of positive momentum. Fist port of call is for VET to cross and CLOSE back ABOVE its BB Middle Band Basis and LSMA on this 1d timeframe. So long as BTC behaves herself and continues closing above the daily chart 50EMA then we may see a more sideways ranging with VET before the next move up. Hopefully now with the release of POA2.0 well see VeChain eventually added onto more exchanges that will help dampen any Binance BTC Longs Futures liquidations. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing. Notes: Bollinger Bands = Grey Bands on chart LSMA = Black squiggly line on chart VPFR POC = Short horizontal red line on chart VPVR POC = Long horizontal red line on chart Trend-lines = Ascending & Descending dashed black lines.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by entertheroach
1
ADA - 1 Day Chart updateADA is below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1d timeframe. Note that we have had expansion of the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands and this volatility is on the downside. At the moment, ADA is back above its Lower Bollinger Band but note that ADA is still getting downwards pressure at the moment. ADA is below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1d timeframe. A close below the LSMA is a potential sell signal for this indicator. Using the Ichimoku settings of 20,60,120,30 but note I’m only using the cloud portion, you can see that ADA is underneath the Ichimoku Cloud and in the Bearish Zone on this 1d timeframe. It looks as though we will see the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) cross back UNDER the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) creating a Cloud (Kumo) Twist into a new red bearish cloud on this 1d timeframe. ADA is below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 8 Daily candles that I’ve selected. ADA is below its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts visible range. Overall Volume is still very low on this Binance chart and today’s Volume Bar looks like it will close under its Volume 20 Period Moving Average (Orange Line). The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is indicating a weak trend strength with the ADX (Orange Line) at 17.54 below the 20 Base Line and below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 18.65. Note that the ADX (Orange Line) has risen slightly. The +DI (Green Line) has dropped to 11.07 and is below its -DI (Red Line) which is at 18.45. Note that the -DI (Red Line) has dropped slightly but the +DI (Green Line) is still dropping, this tells me that Negative Momentum is stronger than Positive Momentum on this 1d timeframe. The OnBalanceVolume (OBV) is showing momentum is downwards and notice that the OBV (Blue Line) is now underneath its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a big sign of strength for negative momentum for this 1d timeframe. I would not get excited unless ADA crosses and CLOSES back ABOVE the Descending Trend-line (Descending Dashed Line) which would take it back into the Bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud system. But ADA needs to cross & CLOSE back ABOVE its BB Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA, LSMA, Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) and Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) resistance levels and also turn them into strong support. If ADA crosses and closes BELOW the Ascending Trend-line (Ascending Dashed Line) then a further bigger drop is possible. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing. Notes: Bollinger Bands = Grey Bands on chart LSMA = Black squiggly line on chart VPFR POC = Short horizontal red line on chart VPVR POC = Long horizontal red line on chart Trend-lines = Ascending & Descending dashed black lines.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by entertheroach
5