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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Potential Conter trend corrective underway in the EUR/NZDGood afternoon folks, Happy Friday! On our hunt for some potential ideas forming this morning, we came across an opportunity in the EUR/NZD. At the moment price seems to have formed a nice higher low and has surged to the upside with a particular degree of momentum. Given that we have such a huge gap away from our 8EMA, I would expect the gap close to be well under way before long. We did see something similar to this counter trend view earlier in the week before we saw another leg down but given where price is in the wider picture, having closed beneath major support, the likelyhood of a deeper corrective certainly seems to be on the cards. Wait for a potential trigger via the breakout and retest of the 1.62400 zone for a potential window of opportunity to seek longs to approximately 1.63300-400. Dont rush the process and trade the plan. Have a lovely weekend!
Long
by TheTradingRoom
BTC longterm 1w chart analysisBTC has invalidated its very long Descending Triangle indicated by the 2 large black dashed lines. BTC is still in its Longterm Upwards Pitchfork Pattern on this 1w timeframe, note that BTC is back above the Pitchfork Median Line (The Thin Dashed Line) on this 1w timeframe. BTC is still safely above its 50EMA on this 1w timeframe. BTC is still above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1w timeframe. At the moment, BTC is still above its Bollinger Band Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and also still above its Upper Band. Note that we have had expansion of the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands and the Middle Band is sloping upwards on this 1w timeframe. Note that BTC is above its Volume Profile Fixed Range POC for the fixed range of 4 weekly candle that i have selected. Note that BTC is still above its Volume Profile Visible Range POC for this charts visible range. Volume is worryingly low on this Bitstamp 1w chart compared to what BTC was getting in Dec 2020 to Jan 2021. Note that the last 22 weekly Volume Bars have been below its Volume 20 Period Moving Average. This is something to keep an eye on. For your viewing pleasure, i have added various support and resistance areas indicated by the black parallel lines with yellow shading. You can clearly see the interaction with these various areas. The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is showing that the trend strength is strong on this 1w timeframe with the ADX (Orange Line) at 23.45 and is curving upwards and is getting very close to crossing back over and above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 26.02. We have an increase in Positive Momentum with the +DI (Green Line) at 29.12. The -DI (Red Line) has also continued to drop to 14.13 indicating Negative Momentum has dropped. If the ADX (Orange Line) crosses back over the 9 Period EMA (Black Line) and stays above it, we can expect continued upwards momentum on this weekly timeframe so long as the +DI (Green Line) stays above the -DI (Red Line). The OnBalanceVolume (OBV) is showing strong upwards momentum and note that the OBV (Blue Line) is still above its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) for this 1w timeframe. Using the OBV indicator, the OBV line needs to stay above the Ascending Dashed Line, the 9 period EMA and the Horizontal Dashed Line. The OBV also needs to break above its Ascending Dotted Line which when combined with the Ascending Dashed Line actually looks like an Ascending Wedge on the OBV indicator. This is something to keep an eye on. A few scenarios to think about: 1: BTC may continue to walk up the Upper Bollinger Band like we saw before from the week of 19th Oct 2020 up until the week of the 15th Feb 2021. 2: BTC may consolidate sideways within a range between its new ATH and its 2nd support and resistance area before continuing upwards. 3: BTC may drop back to either its VPVR POC or its VPFR POC as potential support levels. 4: BTC may drop back to its LSMA as a potential support. 5: BTC may drop back under the Bollinger Bands Upper Band, consolidate above the Middle Band and then continue upwards. 6: BTC may drop back to its Bollinger Bands Middle Band as potential support. 7: BTC may drop back to its 50EMA (which is a worse case scenario but unlikely at the moment). The volume shown on this chart doesn’t take into account volume from other exchanges, but we need to keep an eye on the Volume Bars and whether or not the Volume Bars can cross back above its Volume 20 Period SMA on this 1w timeframe. We also need to keep an eye on whether or not the ADX can cross back above the 9 Period EMA as well as what I’ve mentioned above regarding the OBV indicator. We also need to keep an eye on how BTC closes this weekly candle. Here is a wider view of this longterm 1w chart. Note that this post is just focusing on the very longterm and not taking into consideration or analysing what is happening on lower timeframes, which you should be doing. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
4
USDJPY too overstretched! Correction Likely to Occur USDJPY is too overstretched or to put it in technical analysis term, its too oversold. Therefore an anticipated correction would likely occur. However as traders we perform technical analysis and await confirmation that a correction would likely take place. Here we have a 4H chart of USDJPY. 115.000 represents a concrete monthly psychological resistance where the prices might likely reverse for time being. Also on the chart an ascending channel is visible and MONTHLY pivots. A confirmation which is needed here would be the following: 1) break of ascending channel 2) Close of 4H candle below the 4H 50 EMA 3) close of D candle below R2 monthly pivot After all the above criteria have met, its important to know that the initial target would R1 MONTHLY PIVOT (112.500). However since this trade is on 4H timeframe, an extra caution is required which would be to notice where the weekly pivot pointS are located when the trade criteria has met. Combining all these, the risk to reward ratio evaluation is required and SHORT trade can be placed. Note: This is just my personal technical analysis and its not a trade signal. The trade signal would be posted on an entirely different post shall the trade criteria meet.
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURUSD likely to target 1.16800 & fall towards 1.15000Currently EURUSD is consolidating an upmove towards monthly pivot on daily TF. The consolidation target would be the area near 1.16800. Once the price hits the monthly pivot, we can likely expect the downtrend to resume. A swing low was already broken and what is happening currently is just that the price is retracing towards the broken support. The 1.15000 is a concrete psychological support. so its advisable to use it as a TP target. assessing the risk to reward ratio is important as well. once the price retarces i will post a short trade idea with entry and exit details based on RR.
Short
by FX618Analysis
McGinley Dynamic IndicatorMcGinley Dynamic Indicator: It was invented by John R. McGinley. It would automatically adjust itself in relation to the speed of the market. This future can be very helpful as it is sometimes difficult to choose the right period for the MA. It also helps to account for the gap that often exists between prices and moving average lines. Can't be used as a single indicator and we need to combine this with other indicators or another McGinley indicator. Price actions respect moving averages because so many traders use them in their strategies. Because of the formula, the Dynamic Line speeds up in down markets and moves more slowly in uptrends. One wants to be quick to sell in a down market, yet ride an up-market as long as possible.
Education
by apadanaforex
EURUSD could target 1.16000 as a consolidation move! There is no doubt that EURUSD is trending lower, however it is completely in an oversold territory as the 4H RSI is indicating bullish divergence. Therefore this pair can be said to be in a consolidation phase. For this trade criteria to be met, the trendline needs to breached, after which the weekly pivots should be evaluated and a long trade can be placed depending on the RR. This might occur this week or next week. The initial target for this pair would be 1.16000 area (present of another descending trendline). However shall this target HIT, we can expect this pair to resume its downtrend towards the monthly psychological support of 1.15000. Shall there be any updates regarding trade entry, i will post them in this thread.
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF Might aim for S1 Monthly PIVOT shall the Trendline break!USDCHF might aim for S1 monthly support shall the ascending trendline break. For this criteria to meet, we need to see the daily candle pierce both the trendline and D EMA in the process. After this what is required is to assess the RR for this trade, if feasible we can enter a SHORT to target the S1 monthly pivot. The S1 Monthly pivot is also present in the same area with another ascending trendline. Due to this, i strongly feel that the price might go down until those level. Shall there be any updates i will update the entry criteria below in this thread
Short
by FX618Analysis
How To Trade Support Resistance Levels Price closed above EMA 10, EMA 20, Trend Line, and Horizontal Support & Resistance Level. Enter at close price of rejection candlestick. Close price of rejection candlestick is 0.73150. Set Stop Loss below EMA 20 Close Price and Low Price. Set Target at next support resistance level. Support and Resistance Levels are: EMA 10 EMA 20 Horizontal Line Diagonal Line High Price 0.73195 Close Price 0.73150 Open Price 0.73046 EMA 20 Price 0.72939 Low Price 0.72921 Close Price 0.73150 EMA 10 Close Price 0.73045 EMA 20 Close Price 0.72939
Education
by TradeLive-
1
Don't expect EURUSD to aim lower! Correction might likely occur The above link describes how EURUSD might retrace towards the DAILY EMA and Monthly pivot which are both located at 1.16500 region and then from there a fall towards 1.15000 might likely occur. On this main chart of EURUSD 4H there are possible two scenarios which might take place this week 1) Have a look at the main chart. shall the ascending small trendline break, the initial target would be the S1 weekly pivot. This is a tradable scenario for most of us, provided if the RR is feasible!. However it is highly unlikely that this pair would go further below S1 weekly support. the reason behind this might simply be that this pair is oversold and a correction is highly likely on the cards. So for those who are expecting this pair to keep falling further and further are advised to be careful and not to expect a continuous fall beyond S1 weekly support. Shall the trendline break and price hits this level, we can expect an aggressive buying pressure that would likely propel this pair towards the Monthly PIVOT and Daily EMA which are located at 1.165000 area 2) For the second scenario, if the trendline holds intact on 4H charts, we can expect the price to continue its ascend towards the 1.16500 region slowly. However this consolidation move is very difficult trade as there are various hurdles that needs to be passed. simply put the road to 1.16500 is risky as the price might fall from any point. Looking at the bigger picture, trading this consolidation up move is risky. The path of least resistance in this pair is to SHORT it from 1.165000 area once the consolidation is complete and the target would be 1.15000 area.
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
AUDUSD might aim towards 0.700 support shall the trendline breakThe path of least resistance towards 0.7000 psychological support is open for AUDUSD to test, provided that the trendline breaks. Shall the trendline break, the daily candle also needs to pierce and close below S1 monthly support. Once this happens the price will likely target S2 support that lies just below 0.70000 support. Shall the criteria take place, it would be good to exit the trade at 0.7000 psychological support rather than S2 support. Await updates in the comment section
Short
by FX618Analysis
TRICKY USDJPY SHORT MIGHT BE A TRAP! TRADE WITH CONFIRMATION! Take a look at the above image of USDJPY daily TF chart. Its clearly visible that there many hurdles that USDJPY needs to clear before aiming low. In this case, the main chart that shows USDJPY 4H, shows that once the trendline breaks it will likely aim low. Due to this many traders might get trapped should they SHORT USDJPY once this trendline breaks. As a probable consequence, the price might likely start to reverse against their trade and head back up. A CONSERVATIVE AND PATIENT approach would be to look at the bigger picture and scan for any hurdles that might cause the price to limit its downmove. in this case, scanning the daily chart (have a look at the attached image up). On this chart there lies a Monthly pivot and just below it lies the daily EMA. these two factors have been proven to be a strong support. To trade this setup with confirmation would be to wait for the DAILY candle to pierce and close below D EMA and Monthly pivot. Once this happens a short trade can be taken on 4H charts depending on the weekly pivots. The target which would likely be tested would the area near 110.000 region. Shall there be any updates, i will post the entry requirements below
Short
by FX618Analysis
Retracement to 1.16500 required before SHORT entry! Target: 1.15EURUSD is currently in downtrend! However 1.15000 acts as a strong monthly support. So based on the monthly pivot points its best to wait for slight retracement to 1.165000 area for better risk to reward ratio. Monthly EMA was also pierced and candle closed below it, this further eliminates the hurdle of monthly support and opens the path to 1.15000 area. i shall update the trade criteria once and if the price retarces for a better 1:1 RR.
Short
by FX618Analysis
VeChain - 1 week chartYes…….. VET is still in its massive Symmetrical Triangle pattern. VET is back above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1w timeframe. A very good sign will be if VET closes this weekly candle above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band. Note that the Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways and the Lower Bollinger Bands still moving upwards with a slight sideways slope indicating we may see sideways consolidation and a potential BB Squeeze or Pinch on this 1w timeframe. VET is still safely above its 50EMA on this 1w timeframe. VET is still safely above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1w timeframe. VET has found some resistance fromm its ascending dotted resistance line. VET is just below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 12 weekly candles that i have selected. Volume is still relatively low on this weekly timeframe and note that the Volume Bar is still below its Volume 20 Period Moving Average. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing that the MACD Line is still under the Signal Line but note that the Red Histograms are decreasing in size slighting. Note that the MACD Line is still above the 0.0 Base Line in the positive zone. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is indicating a nice rise since the 20th Sept, note that the OBV Line is very close to crossing back over the 9 Period EMA Line. It's not set in stone but we should not be surprised if we have a big move up on this 1w timeframe if the OBV Line Crosses back above the 9 Period EMA line. For your viewing pleasure i have also added adjusted Support and Resistance areas of interest, shown as black parallel lines with yellow shading. Note that VET is still in a LONGTERM UPTREND. This will NOT change unless VET crosses under and fails to make it back above its Dashed Ascending Trend-line. All in all VET is still looking great and still within its Symmetrical Triangle. If VET stays above the Bollinger Bands Middle Band on this 1w timeframe then this could be a good spot to accumulate more for the longterm before a potential breakout to the upside. I still wouldn't get excited until VET crosses and successfully closes above its Symmetrical Triangle Descending Trend-line. I hope this is helpful with your trading & hold-ing.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
1
Quick BTC 1d chart updateBTC has broken out upwards from its Descending Triangle and made a successful re-test as support. BTC is above its Bollinger Bands Upper Band and note that the Upper and Lower Bands are expanding away from each other indicating increased volatility. Note that the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA is also pointing upwards. Using the Ichimoku Cloud 20,60,120,30 settings: The Ichinoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the short-term momentum is upwards. The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is upwards. The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating momentum at the moment is upwards. Note that the Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) is pointing upwards. Also note that upwards momentum has been strong enough to make the Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) point upwards. This is a VERY GOOD THING as its raises future support levels for this 1d timeframe. Note that BTC is way above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 4 daily candle that i have selected. Note that Volume has increased and note that todays Volume Bar is above its Volume 20 Period Moving Average. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is looking really great with strong upwards momentum and note that the OBV line is above its 9 Period EMA. Note how using a 9 Period EMA on the OBV indicator is very useful. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is looking really good with 6 increasing Green Histograms, note that the MACD Line and the Signal Line are both back above the 0.0 Base Line and back in the Positive Zone. A couple of scenarios to ponder now that BTC is way above its Bollinger Band Upper Band on this 1d chart: 1: BTC may continue walking upwards on the outside of the Upper BB for a few more days before an inevitable retrace back under the Upper BB, consolidate for a bit, and then continue upwards. 2: BTC retraces back to the previous Descending Triangle Trend-line, BTC test it as Support and then continues upwards. 3: BTC Drops to either its Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen), Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) or to the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis as its lowest support. At the moment of typing this, BTC is showing no real sign of stopping yet, but In any case, if there is a retrace, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
2