USOIL - Bearish analysis & lessonG'day all, hope you're well!
I don't usually publish my ideas, but I thought this might be worth a look since I've been experimenting with the effects of EMAs and Fibs on charts in what I like to call "Order of Priority". So, let's dig in. Before you read on, you hereby acknowledge that you will possibly be exposed to crappy chart jokes that may or may not include some form of innuendo and will likely be dad level, as well as a long-winded explanation.
There are a few things happening in this chart that point to a short term downside target or at least $80/barrel - possibly lower.
The first is the obvious giant 'W' pattern whose target was suspiciously met to within a buck or 2. The way I measured it is by running a Fib retracement from the last high prior to the W to the first wick after the lowest wick - I did this to find the .618 (dotted line Fib retracement on the left). I ignored the major drop as it was an anomaly. The wick after it lined up with the previous market bottom which made more technical sense. The .618 lines up perfectly with the 'W' neckline, so now we have a beginning and end point for a measured move - from the .618 down to the legitimate wick. Move that line upward and you have your target that met with scary precision. W patterns usually retrace to the neckline which is usually a .5 Fib after the move plays out, which lines up with the .618 Fib that we used to find the neckline. If it retraces lower, it's usually a speedy move to the .618 before becoming range-bound at around the .5. I've found this to be pretty typical of 'W' patterns in general.
Secondly, we have the RSI and MACD indicators looking all depressed. A solid bearish divergence on the RSI and a downticking MACD, like 2 emo teenagers fighting over a black tshirt. In my experience, bearish divergences don't tend to reset until they first hit oversold territory, and there's a bit of a way to go before that happens. That distance in the RSI from the current position to oversold lines up nicely with a price movement to the $64 - $70 zone, assuming there's a quick buy-up. The MACD usually doesn't confirm a reset for the next move up until it falls below the median line and crosses upward again with conviction. Conviction is key here, it can't be a half-assed cross over like those 2 emo kids.
Thirdly, we have the EMAs. The values I use are Fib values: 9 (blue), 13 (purple), 21 (red), 55 (yellow), 200 (Sasha Grey), 600 (light grey). There's a nifty rule I found works great after major moves:
* If after a major move the price falls below the 9 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 21 EMA.
* If the price falls through the 21 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 55 EMA.
* If the price falls through the 55 EMA and fails to get back above on retest, we're going to the 200 EMA.
* You get the point, same for the 600 EMA.
Right now, it's failed to get back above the 21 EMA on retest. Guess what the next target is? Now here's the kicker, if it falls through the 55 EMA, the 200 EMA is waiting for the price right at the neckline of the W pattern, with the 600 EMA resting right on the 0.5 Fib retracement when measured from the major low to the major high (dotted line Fib retracement on the right). Coincidence? Who knows.
"OK smartass, so what happens when we fall through ALL the EMAs then?" I hear you ask. First, don't be a wickhead. There's an order to these things. Everything has its own gravity in the charts, which is why I described everything above in that order. What has the most gravity, I believe, is the .618. That's at around $46 - $49. If the price falls through all the EMAs, that is the next major safe target. I say safe because of risk level. Sure, it could wick as low as the thick blue support trend line, but price will generally equalise at the .618 over time and it's generally where buy orders fill when these EMAs are broken. Placing any below there is an idea, but they're less likely to fill.
"Damn it Shifty, why didn't you just call the .618 instead of wasting our time with your crap about colourful lines and levels that sound like pasta?". Well, because each of those steps has it's own trading opportunities, particularly the EMA rule. On a lower timeframe, the trades in the EMA zones alone when you reference the weekly are gorgeous.
I hope this is helpful to someone out there who could play around with these concepts on other charts. I have other rules that I've come up with to do with Fibs and EMAs, so if you liked this crappy dad-joke of a lesson, let me know in the comments and I might go into more stuff down the line :)
Stay safe all and happy trading!
EMAS
GOLD Pullback started?hi, I see pullback opportunity up to 1794-1817 region before Gold resume its 5th wave.
one can trade long on this pullback or you want to wait until sell region at the end of wave 4 and catch the 5th wave.
trade well,
Alex
AFRM bottom near?Price broke out of trendline, and rejected at 50 EMA (blue line)
Note how it hasnt been able to break above it since December. Price is at it again, the difference now it that the EMAs are compressing. That could indicate a bottom.
I want to see a daily candle closing above the 50 EMA then we can try to ride this from the bottom.
24.62 has been resistance for almost a month so i am interested to see what price does if it tries to break above it
High Tension Lines In 1 WTF//SONATSOFT*High-Tension lines alert!
*First Target is 10% just above UPPER TREND LINE as of now.
*Look for bullishness and volumes if it breaks the UPPER TREND LINE in future.
*SL should be put below the support of H-T Lines.
*If EMA's(20&50) are broken with high volumes up-side then continue holding the stock.
SBIN starting for an UPTREND DIRECTION hey guys ,
SBIN stock was moving in a DOWNTREND.
this stock was following a pattern called -
TRIANGLE PATTERN
but now , this stock has CROSSED it's RESISTANCE .
this stock has crossed it's resistance before 5-6 days and now this ato k has retested,
and we can see a great GREEN CANDLES
ALSO ,
the 20 DAY EMA has crossed the 50 DAY EMA .
THEREFORE, i think that you can buy this stock and
i have marked the RR RATIO , TARGET AND SL for y'all .
BUT FIRST CONSIDER THE GLOBAL SITUATION
1. INFLATION
2. WAR
3. RISING BANK RATES
AFTERWARDS YOU CAN BUY THIS STOCK AND EARN GIGH RETURNS
SBIN - STATE BANK OF INDIA'
😀😀
Good zone to buy.Hi gold approaching end of wave 3 and I see good opportunity to buy for correction towards wave 4.
Check my previous post to see to relate current analysis and position.
Trade well,
alex
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - On the 1D there is a red spot but now it is at support and could bounce back up to the topside of the range. There is a green spot on the 4H so if it close's above 19900 on the 4H I can see it testing 20500.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it has closed above the 21 ema for the first time since 4 days ago. What we don't want to see is rejection at this point because that will make another lower high, if it does that then it could come further down. On the 15M it could have a little pull back down towards 19700 and put in a higher low.
BTC OVERALL - Overall I think Bitcoin will bounce soon as long as it close's above 19900 on the 4H
Let me know your thughts in the comments and like my idea!!
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - The bullish divergence looks like it's playing out on the 1D and close above the 21 EMA yesterday which means it could go and test the 55 ema at 25000, so I don't think this bounce is over just yet.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it looks like it wants to put in a temporary top and pull back a little bit. There is a tiny bit of bearish divergence too, so that could lead to a little pull back on the shorter time frames.
BTC OVERALL - I can see BTC having a pull back today and carry on it's bounce later on today or going into the weekend.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and like my idea!!
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - I still think this bounce will carry on to about 21700, the 4H has printed a green spot and it's held the 55 EMA. On the 1D it still looks like it wants to test the 21 EMA at 21200, I think if the weekly closes above 22000 this week we could see a bounce up to higher 20000s.
BTC SHORT TERM - On the 1H it still looks bullish and looks like it wants to test higher with a green spot. It remains above the 21 and 55 EMA, if it stays above the EMAS I can see it testing 21000.
BTC OVERALL - I think because it looks bullish on all time frames from the 4H downwards I can see it going up to at least 21000.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and like my idea!!
BTC Long Term And Short Term AnalysisBTC LONG TERM - On the 1D the green spot has confirmed from yesterday with bullish divergence at the same time but the stochastic Is still crossing down on the 1D. On the 4H It has come down to the 55 Ema it would be nice to see it bounce off that, If It does then I can see a bit more upside towards 21700.
BTC SHORT TERM - My short term target from yesterday was hit (20400) It's been rejected off that resistance and a red spot and the stochastic crossing down too. Like I said with with 4H as long as It stays above the 55 Ema i can see a bit more upside. Shorter target 21000.
BTC OVERALL - I think BTC will carry on this move upwards of at least 21000 if it stays above 19700.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments and like my idea!!
Gold sets path the up side down.hi, Ive been bearish on gold (check my post) and I still am.
on this level, I see gold is going to end its consolidation which is wave (i) and (ii), and finally sets way south.
i have all my shorts from 1900 and above 1850 protected with trailed SL.
latest short was at 1829 and will be protected at once we reach wave (iii)
trade well,
Alex
GOLD, still short.Hi, I still see short opportunity on gold, unless we have new higher high above 1858 then I will re assess.
Good R:R if u take it from this area.
Trade Well,
Alex
Short Re entry for goldhi, I see current level is the good price for re enter short on gold, as usual it gives good R:R
trade well,
Alex
What's next for gold?Hi, Gold moves as expected, and we had a good short.
this is my current though on gold for now.
im more focus on shorting, if u want to buy make sure u have a very tight & calculated risk.
trade well,
Alex
Bitcoin about to retest 2018 bull market high After having made a big research i think that we can expect more dump on Bitcoin. I have made a weekly time frame analysis and saw too much coincidences with the previous bull market(2018) downside movement. But i will go first with more recent time, we will look a that later. At the moment we can see a clear double top pattern with the highs of April and November of last year witch is a bearish one and then more recently we have a breakdown of the major support at 32500$-28500$ zone with a wick touching 25400$ and a retest of it touching 32400$ .
Okay, now the coincidences:
At the previous bull market we can see a cross down between the exponential moving averages 21 and 55 on a weekly chart, thing that is not usual in Bitcoin, you only see it every few years and it is very likely to be followed by a downside move continuation. Now the same phenomenon was produced the first days of may.
Then in the last bull market it was followed by a -50% move and now if you draw a -50% measure from the may's cross down the end of the -50% move coincides with the last bull market high 20k.
I conclusion Bitcoin may kiss the 20k level and i think that that will be the bottom of this cycle if 25.4k wasn't.
This is only my opinion and pure speculation, not a financial advice, do always your own research.
[H4 Signal] ETHUSDT - Consolidation Technical ReversalBINANCE:ETHUSDT
Timeframe: H4
Direction: Long
Technical Confluences for Trade:
- Price action at Multi-Year Horizontal Support Trendline
- Stochastic Oversold momentum
- Widening of the EMAs
- Fib Channel shows Price action at 0.786 Channel level
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 1400 - 1500
SL: 1371
TP1: 1680 (move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP2: 2000
RR: Approx. 5.69 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
ETH: WEEKLY EXCLUSIVE UPDATE! BOUNCE INCOMING SOON!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this ETH weekly update. ETH is continuously falling since April month and we got 10 consecutive red candles in the weekly time frame.
So what we can expect now? A bounce is incoming or do we see more red candles?
Well, I'm expecting a green weekly candle sooner or later. Here's why?
1) Price is forming a falling wedge-like structure in the weekly time frame and slowly heading towards the lower trendline of the wedge. So after touching the lower trendline of the wedge we can expect a good bounce.
2) EMA200 is also in conflict with the lower trendline which gives us more hope of a bounce.
3) RSI is also forming a falling wedge and is currently at the lower trendline.
4) If in any case, it does not hold the ema200 then we might see a fake down move and it might test the previous ATH which is at around the $1400 level.
So by all these possible scenarios, we can expect a reversal soon in ETH, and as you know most of the Alts will follow ETH so we might see a good Altseason soon.
I'm expecting a reversal in the market by late June or mid-July. All we have to do now is patiently wait for the right time to enter in Alts.
This is not a piece of financial advice. This is a possible scenario according to the previous data and some indicators.
What do you think about this?
Share your views in the comment section.
If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow.
Thank You!
3005 4HPLAN XAUUSD 3TPS after confrming breakout last highHello traders,
GOLD looks like accumulating by sideways price action. And returning back above average lines again. After breaking out the recent high 1869 level, it will possible to test fibo 1.27-1.618 position which are targets for buyers.
So just wait for new price pullback to check any new nice position to open buy order to follow such plan.
Good luck on this buying plan.
LESS IS MORE!
Gold short going well, but where is the first stop?hi, my short target is to at least 1815-1811 area and after that I expect some minor pullback.
will trail SL and protect profit, i hope u do too.
Trade Well,
Alex