Economic Bubbles and EMA 100/200 seems to be playing outThe Ethereum chart seems to be following the analysis provided at April 7th where the 20 EMA dropped down below 200 EMA and is continuing downwards towards the 100 EMA and the 50 EMA signalling continuation of this analysis provided on April 7th.
ETH has so far dropped from April 3rd to its point now by 17% and from April 7th by almost 10%.
This is not financial advice.
EMAS
RUNE/USDT double top playing out The RUNE/USDT has showed a double top pattern on the 4H chart and is likely to play out on the longer time frames.
This follows a likely price drop from 9.29 USDT to 7.38 USDT. A drop in 20%.
This also follows a rejection from the EMA lines and the RSI shows signs of being overbought.
Here has the analysis showed sign of playing out on the daily time frame.
No financial advice.
ETH/USD: Bought in the smart zoneEthereum it's look with bullish perspective that could to reach the mark of $3,800 USD. Also to take reference, we see that Ethereum make support in the EMA 200, and also applying the Fibonacci, Ethereum showing us a good zone to buy Ethereum in the 0.382% in Fibonacci level. So, I add Ethereum contract in this trade toward $3,800 USD. I put my SL to $3,110 USD. This will be a risk/benefit of 1:3 and it's excellent proportion to measure our risk vs. benefit.
I hope that this Daily idea support you!!!
Economic Bubbles and EMA 100/200Here is an BTC analysis of the current price drop, and based on the Theory of Financial Bubbles can we spot three bubble ish formations in the past years.
The three points in time this analysis sees are the bubbles in 2018 when the price drop followed by a pump to the upside, not as high as the previous high but this was followed by a drastic drop
The market followed the economic bubble theory with a peak which followed by a price drop, by the time the price started to stabilize itself did investors take profit and the price crashed into a panic sell off.
The second point in time this happened was the start of the Covid pandemic which caused the price to follow this same movement to its low.
Now in 2022 can we see this similar movement where the price has started to drop which will continue downwards and after this initial downtrend will the price pump slightly upwards where investors take profit and after this pump will the price crash. Following the Financial Bubble Theory.
Something we trader also need to take into account which may confirm this analysis is the movement in in EMA 100 which during these three points in time crossed down below the EMA 200.
Entry Price: 3200 USD
Target Price 1: 2500 USD
Target Price 2: 2100 USD
Target Price 3: 1700 USD
When taking this position do we need to focus on the initial drop and when the price pumps upwards do need to take into account for the downwards sloping resistance line, if the price breaks the trend line to the upside is the trend likely to reverse and do a final longer push.
This assumption is less likely to happen, as the general price trend is a take profit zone before the price hits the panic zone and its final drop off.
This pump from the initial low may have already happened in the case of BTC, which we did not see in ETH yet. Meaning that the price now touched the downwards sloping resistance before continuing downwards.
Together with a negative price strength, an EMA 100 below the EMA 200 and the price doing its second pump into the take profit zone before the drastic drop can we build a theory which looks negative.
This is not financial advice.
Economic Bubbles and EMA 100/200Here is an ETH analysis of the current price drop, and based on the Theory of Financial Bubbles can we spot three bubble ish formations in the past years.
The three points in time this analysis sees are the bubbles in 2018 when the price drop followed by a pump to the upside, not as high as the previous high but this was followed by a drastic drop
The market followed the economic bubble theory with a peak which followed by a price drop, by the time the price started to stabilize itself did investors take profit and the price crashed into a panic sell off.
The second point in time this happened was the start of the Covid pandemic which caused the price to follow this same movement to its low.
Now in 2022 can we see this similar movement where the price has started to drop which will continue downwards and after this initial downtrend will the price pump slightly upwards where investors take profit and after this pump will the price crash. Following the Financial Bubble Theory.
Something we trader also need to take into account which may confirm this analysis is the movement in in EMA 100 which during these three points in time crossed down below the EMA 200.
Entry Price: 3200 USD
Target Price 1: 2500 USD
Target Price 2: 2100 USD
Target Price 3: 1700 USD
When taking this position do we need to focus on the initial drop and when the price pumps upwards do need to take into account for the downwards sloping resistance line, if the price breaks the trend line to the upside is the trend likely to reverse and do a final longer push.
This assumption is less likely to happen, as the general price trend is a take profit zone before the price hits the panic zone and its final drop off.
This is not financial advice.
BTC/USD: Bitcoin it's above of the EMA 200Bitcoin forming this symmetrical triangle of consolidation and maybe, the price it's ready to blow up.
Also, you can to get note that in this Daily timeframe, Bitcoin it's above of the EMA 200 and also make this retest in the support zone of this symmetric triangle where in the past was resistance. But bull are taking control now in the trend and Bitcoin it's ready to goes to up.
You can to put a long position in Bitcoin from this price and SL to $42,900 USD. Also, by Daily timeframe, I have calculated that Bitcoin will reach $57,000 USD and then, I use this measure in the base of this symetrical triangle to measure the projection of the price.
I'm bullish in Bitcoin!!! And to know the risk/benefit this will be 1:3. And this it's a good trade to note. Now, if you want to entry in this trade, preven to use all leverage and take in your eyes your risk in this trade. Because you will need to learn how to calculate the risk in this trade and how much money do you allow to loss in this trade?.
I hope that this idea support you!!!
All Eyes on ETHETHUSD is peaking over just over the 200 Daily EMA which has a lot of significance on where it will go next. The fact we've breached the 200 Daily EMA while BTCUSD continues to be rejected by it speaks to two different conclusions. 1.) ETHUSD is following it's own market now and not following the BTCUSD "Supercycle" which is bullish for ETHUSD, removing itself from the BTCUSD market and establishing it's own market paradigm will create even more growth. 2.) It's breaking from the pack of layer 1 utility tokens, massive market saturation has come fold in 2021 with SOL,XTZ, AVAX, ETC... ETH with it's slow transactions (13sec block times with 12TPS) and high gas fees made it a target for SOL and others which have faster block times and higher TPS. With the anticipation of ETH 2.0 moeny seems to be pouring into the ETH ecosystem with the burn continuing to the null address.
Analysis
the 20 EMA has bullishly diverged over the 50 EMA but still far from the 200EMA, however with the current price action the EMAs will rapidly follow up, if these EMAs can diverge over the 200 EMA we have achieved consensio and will continue long. The fact we have breached the 200 Daily EMA means we are making the resistance much weaker every time we push through it.
Confusion
If we can maintain levels above the 200 Daily EMA for one week, full steam ahead as the 20 and 50 daily EMAs wilil catch up to the 200 daily EMA
"I keep telling my wife this isn't financial advise but she keeps loosing our monies."
-KewlKat
SPX EMA Buying IndicationSPX has seen 6 instances since 2003 where the 100 EMA has crossed below the 200 EMA.
With the majority of these identifying an optimal buy/entry point, with the strategy to look consider the depth of retracement and to scale into positions for optimal ROI once the market recovers.
The only major time where this was not close to the lowest retracement point was follwoing the housing market bubble which saw the 100 EMA remain below the 200 EMA for approx. 600 days with the optimal buy zone occurring 2/3 of the way through around 190 days before the 100 EMA crossed above.
#1. 20% Oct-Dec 2018, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days from mid-Dec 2018 to mid-Mar 2019
#2. -35% Feb to Mar 2020, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days late-Mar 2020 to mid-June
#3. -58% Oct 2007 to Mar 2009, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 600 days from Jan 2008 to Sep 2009. Lowest point was approx 190 days from 100 EMA crossing back above 200 EMA
Other periods to consider where 100 EMA crossed below 200 EMA:
Jan to Apr 2016
Sep to Nov 2015
Sep 2011 to Jan 2012
NOTE:
- THE CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT REFLECTS A DEEP RECESSION IS LIKELY BASED ON COMMODITIES AS WELL AS THE BREADTH OF ASSETS & EQUITIES WITH VALUATIONS AT OR NEAR ATH'S.
- Correction likely to be similar if not deeper than what was realized when the housing market collapsed in 2008 given the more widespread high prices driven by absurd amounts of excess money supply with rates at/near zero.
SilverOkay not that big of a fan on precious metals however when opportunities arise, a lot can happen too. With the FED continuing to buy bonds, one must ask themselves why??? Interest on the reserve bonds will increase, rates on mortgages will increase, rates on loans will increase. Like a retail traders wet dream in coming to light, common sense everyday people will be looking for scarce assets to put their money into as rates will rise and the fear on out of control inflation being handed down to the consumer. This wedge is primed for lift off and not a moment to soon. With the EMAs on the weekly 2,9, and 30 looking like a bullish divergence could happen on all three EMAs and the RSI momentum indicator looking up some buys are coming in, more buyers than sellers, it's that easy. I would assume it will be a while til we hit those upper levels (target) but as a spot buy I think there will be money would be made even on spot.
ETHUSD ShortWith BTC struggling to get back over 40k we can assume that Eth is not far behind failing to reclaim 3k territory Eth will be pushed lower and lower as BTC continues to fail its 40k reclaim. Sell pressure on BTCUSD is low around 35k but high at 40k, Being in the realm of 38-39k this would be the upper price channel. If btc fails at these levels we can assume with nearly a 100% confidence that ETH will fallow against the dollar. Setting up a short trade here while BTC is in the upper channel would be good idea. By March 15th assuming the BTCUSD wedge is correct we should see lower 34k levels and maybe lower. Meaning scrape the first short and get ready for another by March 15th as it will most likely break a day or two before hand. This trade should be valid as long as we do not break the EMAs which would cause a divergence thus the SL at those levels.
"Why use USD settlement layer while I can use fake internet money settlement layers"
-KewlKat
THETA : USD Wave 5 target $37.60 - $47.41THEATA : USD
Potential wave 5. The fib relationships look good but the time its taken for wave 4 to complete when compared to wave 2 isn't great. EMAs are bearish. That leads me to consider two main options, 1 this is a bear market relief rally or 2 its still a bull market and wave 5 has just begun. The bull flag is enticing and the risk reward on this trade is very good. There's a potential for a 10x with very little downside is stops are places responsibly.
Key Points:
Wave 2: Hit high probability fib target of 0.707
Wave 3: Front run high probability fib target of 1.618
wave 4: Overshot high probability target of 0.382
Bull flag: Break and test from above to continue macro trend
Daily EMAs: We are below the 144, 169, 244 EMAs & they have crossed bearish on the daily. This is not bullish. Needs to breakout and test from above.
The trade:
Entry 1: Around here, $3.42 - 1hr chart has broken out and retested 244 EMA. 169 & 244 EMA has crossed bullish.
Entry 2: Break out and retest of the 244 EMA on the 4h chart combined with bullish cross of 169 & 244 EMAs.
Entry 3: Break out and retest of bull flag: ~$4.20 - $5.20
Stop 1: Break of the 244 EMA on 1h, currently at: $3.24 (-5.6%)
Stop 2: Once 4hr EMAs have crossed bullish and price has tested from above, stops at 244 EMA on 4hr chart.
Target 1: 169 EMA on the daily currently at $5.13 but sloping down and decreasing. (+54%)
Target 2: 0.618 relief rally = $7.80 (+132%)
Target 3: Fib: length of wave 1 projected from the end of wave 4 = $37.60 (=1017%)
Target 4: Algo: 0.236 length of wave 3 projected from end of wave 3 = $47.41 (+1300%)
Notes:
Symmetry looks off.
Relationship between wave 2 & 4 doesn't have the 'right look'
Wave 4 has taken much longer that wave 2.
EMAs bearish on higher timeframes
Never Trust. Verify.
Not taking requests so please don't ask.
D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice Just an Observation.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key . Capital preservation above all else.
Possible Bitcoin Pullback to Daily .618 Fibonacci Support ZoneSimple Bitcoin analysis...
> Daily formed a double top at all time highs with bear MACD and now possibly breaking the recent lows, horizontal support & .382 fibonacci.
At this point...
1. Price can find support here at 58000.00 area/ recent lows, horizontal support, 50ema support & .382 fibonacci and move back up to recent highs.
2. Price can move back up from it's current support area and form a daily lower high (or just continue to fall from it's current price) and fall to 50500.00 area/ .618 fibonacci, horizontal support, trend line support & weekly 50ema support. Lots of support in the area for price to make a daily higher low and continue the current trend back up to all time highs.
3. If price breaks 0.618 / 0.75 fibonacci retracement support area as explained above ( 50500.00 to 47000.00 area ), it could move back down to daily recent lows around 41000.00 before finding support.
I will be looking at the intraday charts to see how price action develops in these areas and wait for the lower time frames to confirm the higher time frames before taking a trade long or short.
Looking great with sky volumes on DTF!#IMP POINTS
1.The stock has been in the consolidation from 176 days(6 months roughly).
2.Broke out exceptionally after the the good accumulation.
3.It is fundamentally sound stock with good quarter results is add on advantage.
4.It had broken up the triangle with strong volumes!
Note: Enter after breaking the yellow line with good volumes and can expect to move up '>10%' , decide the SL after breaking of yellow line.
Disclaimer: Holding the stock.
1711 Two plans for GBPUSD to goHello traders,
Usually, when price hit the bottom support band of the downtrend channel, we should think about the correction from the reflection point on the channel. That is possible for pair that run with 5 waves to drop down.
Another possibility is that trend will rush down by rejection from EMA to break the channel.
Lets see which way is more possible later.
Last idea on GBPUSD at least hit 2nd TP.
RISK LOWER THAN YOUR TOLERANCE:
Suggested Risk <5%
Your Real Entry Position Will Make Different RR for Your Trade.
GOOD LUCK!!!
LESS IS MORE!
2510 Wkly Outlook Silver 24.8.-25.5 not far from nowHello traders,
Silver is not a good option to sell on this week.
I prefer you stay focus on any correction to open buy up to wkly resistance zone as targets.
The trend or order open last week still running floating profit.
Good luck on buying plan.
LESS IS MORE!
2510 WKLY OUTLOOK USOIL breaking out again to 86-88Hello traders,
USOIL made a double test of wkly support last week.
It is now breaking out the wkly resistance for new swing up.
Our final target would be possible hit this wk, after two wks holding.
It is very possiblel for it keep rising up till fibo extentison position.
GOOD LUCK ON TREND CONTINUATION PLAN THIS WK.
LESS IS MORE!