EMA, SMA and which one to choose? Educational PostArticle Written by Author of the book: The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation.
There is always a lot of debate while using chart whether to use EMA or SMA.
EMA = Exponential Moving Average.
SMA = Simple Moving Average.
In the below chart Black and Orange lines represent 50 and 200 EMA. Blue and the Lavender line represent the 50 and 200 SMA.
Simple Moving average is the actual average of the kind of SMA you are using that is 50 SMA is average of last fifty closings. Exponential moving average gives more importance to the recent price and less to the past prices in that order. For example, if you are calculating 50 EMA the weightage given to yesterday’s price is more than the weightage given to the price before 49 days. I personally use EMA for my charts when I want to take entry to some stocks. As I feel recent price influence the move of the candles more than past prices for future upward movement. At the same time for Profit booking I give more importance to SMA and 21 SMA in particular as I base my trailing stop losses based on monthly average.
To know more about EMAs and SMAs and importance of EMAs in particular you can read my book. The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available in Paperback and Kindle version on Amazon where I have explained my Mother, Father and Small Child theory where I consider 50 EMA as mother line 200 EMA as father line and movement of a candle is compared to movement of a child playing in garden. In a very simple way I have tried to explain Techincal analysis related to stock price movement and their relation to EMAs.
Now whichever EMA or SMA you use. What I feel is you should remain consistent with it. Do not keep switching between the two. As you can see from the chart there is no major difference in position of both lines in the chart specially when the EMA or SMA is smaller in number. Moving averages are very helpful in determining the trend of the stock. Chances of its correction and support the stock price will get while falling down or resistance it might face if the price is below those lines.
EMAs and SMAs are excellent support when the stock price is above them and become fierce resistnace when the stock price is below these lines. Thus knowing where they are with respect to price is very important. My advice will be EMA or SMA should be part of your chart. Which one you use is a matter of choice. Staying consistent to the moving average you choose is important as Harivansh Rai Bachhan the famous Poet has said in his most famous poem Madhushala and I quote him, “Rah Pakad tu ek chala chal pa jayega Madhushala”. Meaning be consistent to your path and you will find your target.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
EMAS
GBPUSD Sets 2+ Year Highs as the Fed Out-Cuts its UK PeerThe pair gains nearly 5% this year and the latest round of policy decisions by the Fed and the BoE, sent it the highest levels since the first quarter of 2022. The US Fed on Wednesday made its belated pivot with an outsized 0.5% reduction and pointed to another 50 bps worth of cuts by the end of the year. The Bank of England started lowering rates earlier than its US counterpart, with the 0.25% cut of August. Still wary over price pressures though, it has maintained a cautious stance around further easing. This apprehension was reaffirmed on Thursday, as policymakers stood pat on rates.
The Fed out-cut the BoE and is on track to deliver more reductions, setting up a favorable monetary policy differential for GBP/USD. Bulls now have the opportunity to push for the 1.3483 handle, but we are cautious at this time for further strength.
The Fed may have pointed to steep rate cut path as it tries to ensure a strong labor market and a soft landing, but may have a hard time implementing it, as it could put upward pressure to prices. On the other hand, despite the BoE’s trepidation, pressure could mount for faster pace and two more cuts are not unreasonable. Furthermore, the RSI moves towards overbought conditions, so we could see pressure. Daily closes below the EMA200 (black line) would be needed for the bullish bias to pause, but that is hard to justify under current monetary policy dynamics.
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FOMC 25bps vs 50bps??The day has arrived!! Today is predicted to be the first rate cut by the FED since the COVID crash of March 2020! Two years after that in March 2022 the FED begun rate hikes in an attempt to stop the rising inflation. Now that inflation is close to the FEDs target of 2% it's time to stimulate the economy with cheaper borrowing.
The big question is, 25bps or 50bps?
Last week we saw the ECB (European central bank) cut their interest rates by 60bps from 4.25% to 3.65%, although this news has somewhat gone unnoticed, I'm not so sure the FED would have ignored it. If Europe has considerably cheaper borrowing rates than the US it could signal more growth to come from Europe and that would not be ideal for the US.
Now this doesn't necessarily mean that Europe will be favoured by investors for long as this is only the beginning of rate cuts, Europe could taper off earlier or US could be more aggressive later on, we don't know for sure but I don't think America would want to fall behind.
Prediction markets have shown the 50bps cut is growing in probability. Now at 61% chance for 50bps according to FED funds futures (At time of writing). 25bps is definitely priced in, but I don't think 50bps is priced in. This should see risk markets get a boost.
In terms of TA, the 4H BTC chart looks ready to breakout, back above the 200EMA and 4H support. Flip the 4H resistance and $65,000 is the target.
Be carful today with leverage as volatility will be crazy, plenty of whipsawing and generally the first move direction is wrong. Stay safe out there.
EURGBP Bearish Bias Reaffirmed after UK CPI but BoE LoomsThe Bank of England lowered rates last month, for the first time in four years, joining major peers in their shift to less restrictive monetary settings. However, officials adopted a cautious and non-committal approach on further easing, as they remain wary of inflation which they expect to rise further this year. Today’s inflation report will likely strengthen the BoE’s apprehension, as CPI stayed above the 2% target, while core accelerated to 3.6% y/y in August.
EURGPB faces pushback as a result, at the critical resistance cluster provided by the EMA200 (black line) and the 23.6% Fibonacci of the August fall. Bearish bias is intact below that level, sustaining risk for further losses towards and beyond 0.8381. The monetary policy differential is unfavorable for the pair, as the ECB has already slashed rates twice this year and at least one more cut is expected this year.
The Bank of England will have a hard time moving again on Wednesday, but pressure for faster easing pace is likely to increase. Wage growth moderated substantially and this can allow greater tolerance for slower return of inflation to target, while the economy remains fragile, despite exiting its brief recession.
EUR/GBP has contained its fall in recent weeks and a break above the aforementioned resistance cluster would pause the bearish bias and provide the launching pad for taking out the 38.2% Fibonacci. Greater recovery however towards the 61.8% levels looks hard under current policy dynamics.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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JPN225 Correction Persists Ahead of the BoJThe Japanese index managed to swiftly rebound from the plunge caused by the central bank’s second rate hike and hawkish messaging at the end of July, as the market rout created some apprehension around the policy shift. Furthermore, the monetary setting remains accommodative and interests rates are still near-zero, while the stock market’s appeal goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen.
JPN225 comes from a strong week, fueled largely by the upbeat messaging from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that spilled over to Japanese chip makers. Advantest and Tokyo Electron, two of Nikkei’s largest constituents, jumped more than 7%. As a result the index tries to regain the EMA200 that would allow it to exit its correction and challenge the August highs (39,204).
However, the index is cautious this week, as tech optimism wanes and markets await the BoJ’s decision, preceded by inflation update. Policymakers are unlikely to raise rates again, but communication around the path ahead will be crucial. Official have pointed to further tightening ahead and another hike this year is reasonable, as inflation is well above 2%, wages have increased and Q2 GDP posted strong growth. Furthermore, the monetary policy shift and the Yen’s rebound have led to outflows from foreigners over the past seven months.
JPN225 stays in correction and below the EMA200 the risk of bear market persists, although sustained below that threshold has a higher degree of difficulty.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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New Features For Dynamic Pivot Levels - Percentage indicatorIn our latest update, we’ve packed in some exciting new features and enhancements that will elevate your analysis experience to the next level:
Exciting New Features: We’ve added additional Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), allowing you to track five different EMAs tailored to your needs. But that’s not all – we’ve introduced smiley indicators that give you instant feedback on whether the price is above or below the moving average. Now you can analyze with a clean, clutter-free chart!
Fibonacci Level Enhancements: We’ve upgraded the logic behind Fibonacci levels to give you more accurate insights. The improved Fibonacci calculations provide a clearer, more precise visual representation, helping you make better-informed decisions.
A Sleek, Streamlined User Interface: We know how important it is to work with a smart, efficient tool, so we’ve revamped the user interface! Settings are now neatly organized into categories, allowing you to quickly and easily customize everything you need. This makes your workflow smoother and faster.
This update doesn’t just bring new capabilities – it makes the tool more accessible and user-friendly than ever. It’s your key to staying focused on precision analysis, without the distractions!
4hr BITCOIN mean reversion rejection - Leave the rest for laterIn #Bitcoin's 4-hour chart scenario, we reject the EMA50 we are currently at and take the low at $56k in the next couple of days. We get a lot of economic data in the next few days until Friday, which could strengthen the US dollar and lead Bitcoin into a sell-off. Chart-wise, it looks like a rejection of the 4hr EMA50. The first target would be $56k and if things look really ugly, we should also consider $51k as a possible target.
Bitcoin bullish case for the weekI did this analysis yesterday. The case is the following. I expected this drop to the current levels of $62,000 to lead to a meanreversion to the EMA50 on the 4-hour time frame. In the bullish case, we hold the EMA50 and see higher prices. The targets for upside continuation would be $66k and $69k for this week.
USDJPY Vulnerable on Monetary Policy DynamicsThe pair is heading towards its second straight losing month, due to the shift in monetary policy dynamics, which could fuel further losses and new 2024 lows towards 140.26. Chair Powell offered the strongest signal to date of a September pivot, bolstering market optimism for multiple rate cuts ahead. The bank of Japan is on the opposite direction, trying to make policy less loose. Stepping up its effort, it raised rates for second time in this cycle and pointed to more moves, while Governor Ueda stack to script last week.
On the other hand, Mr Powell did not offer any insights around the size and pace of rate cuts, while market pricing for four moves this year is stretched. The BoJ’s latest rate hike meanwhile sparked volatility and forced the bank to pledge to not hike again while markets are unstable. Furthermore, the rate differential will still be wide even if the BoJ hikes again and the Fed cuts more than once.
As such, a recovery effort would not be surprising, but the EMA200 (black line) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the recent slump can cap the upside. Sustained strength above this resistance confluence does not easy under the current policy dynamics.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
EURUSD Long - term outlookEURUSD Long - term outlook
This is a Daily chart for the EURUSD. With the most recent increase, EURUSD managed to break out to the up side of a massive Triangle that's been forming since January 2024
At this stage the price has produced an effective breakout as it has closed a few candles above the resistance line
There are 2 additional confluences that support a possible increase - The 20, 50 and 200 EMAs align to indicate a possible beginning on an up trend and the MACD is indicating Bullish continuation
The price can continue up targeting 1.11 and 1.125 in extension but this might as well be a false breakout and the price may reverse down again aiming at the 1.07 levels
The way that you can increase your chances for success are by looking at a smaller time frame
SP500 1D | PlanThe reaction and closes of the price in the current area are very important. A close above the 200 EMA and DO within a few days is crucial. If the price fails to recapture the dark blue box as I indicated, I expect to see the price action, brush movement I have drawn below. The area of the purple box where MO and pMO are located will be the target.
Happy Trading
Nikkei Hits Bear Market after BoJ HikeAfter a cautious approach away from its ultra-easy monetary setting, the Bank of Japan bolstered its normalization efforts last week. Policymakers raised rates to around 0.25% after the March watershed exit from sub-zero levels, pointed to more moves ahead and also announced sizable reduction in bond purchases.
This action signaled tightening resolve and also accelerated the Yen rebound, threatening to unravel the two key pillars of the stock markets’ rally to record highs. Along with broader recession fears after the US jobs report, JPN225 slumps into a bear market as it loses more than 20% for July’s all-time high and could be in for further losses.
On the other hand, the BoJ is still in accommodative territory and warned that could increase its bond buying if needed, while the broader market rout could push it back into a more conservative approach. Furthermore the rate differential is still huge and the carry trade may persist. From a technical standpoint the RSI points to the most oversold conditions in years and that could help JPN225 rebound out of bear territory and towards a cluster of hurdles that starts with the 200Days EMA, but significant sentiment improvement needed.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bitcoin - Preparing for Massive PumpBitcoin has almost completed its consolidation, preparing for a major pump to the upside.
Although the Daily EMA is showing a Bearish trend (EMA Crossed 2 days ago), on the WEEKLY chart, the trend is still very much Bullish.
However as we can see, there is a Daily FVG waiting to be filled by price action. This Daily FVG is also where many Longs have their Stops in the Futures markets, which I suspect will be the catalyst for the first initial pump upwards from this current price range/area.
Price action is still in the premium zone, however I suspect by another 24 to 72 hours, price will arrive in the discount zone which will be the reversal point. (eg: below the 0.50 Fibonacci marker)
I have made a white box which shows the area I suspect will be the reversal point to the upside. Anywhere in this white box should be the reversal area. I do not expect the price action, at this point in time, to go below the $60,000 dollar mark. I am expecting price action to fly past the previous ATH.
29/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,404.60
Last weeks low: $63,458.72
Midpoint: $66,431.66
As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH.
Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC.
Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line.
This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
15/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,431.5
Last weeks low: $54,288.74
Midpoint: $57,860.12
Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result.
CPI (YoY):
FORECAST: 3.1%
ACTUAL: 3.0%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast.
PPI (MoM):
FORECAST: 0.1%
ACTUAL:0.2%
Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since.
Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish.
Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key.
Close above $61,500 = BULLISH
Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun.
Close below $61,500 = BEARISH
A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.
USOIL Slides to Crucial Support Region on Demand JittersThe commodity staged a four-week relief rally recently and the longest profitable streak of the year, helped by OPEC+ supply curbs extension and summer travel demand. At the same time, soft US inflation and dovish Fed commentary have boosted market pricing for multiple cuts, which can provide another tailwind. Above the EMA200 bulls have the ability to set higher highs (84.54), but don’t inspire yet confidence for new 2024 highs (87.66).
Despite the near-term favorable supply-demand dynamics, longer-term prospects are gloomy, as OPEC+ will start returning oil to the market and usage is likely to decelerate substantially this year. This week’s data from China (the world’s largest importer) aggravated demand concerns, as the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
USOil faces pressure as a result and threatens a key support region, provided by the 200Days EMA (blue line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and the upper border of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Although this cluster has the potential to contain the fall, a breach would shift bias to the downside. This would expose WTI to 76.13 and bring the June lows to the spotlight (72.40), although sustained weakness is not easy under current conditions.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves.
This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures.
HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Copper Constructive but Struggles for BreakthroughFollowing a sharp pullback from May’s record peak, Copper made a strong start to the third quarter, returning above the EMA200 (black line) and regaining the initiative. It tries to take out the 38.2% Fibonacci of that decline that will allow it to push towards 5.000-5.041 handle and eventually challenge the all-time highs (5.200). The fundamentals remain favorable, as key miners have lowered their activity, while the AI boom and the clean energy transition drive demand for the non-ferrous metal.
On the other hand, there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand outlook, like China’s bympy recovery and distressed property sector, along with a slowdown in EV adoption and other factors. Furthermore, Copper struggles to break above the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and failure would create scope for lower lows (4.323) but the downside appears well protected and sustained weakness past it looks hard, technically and fundamentally.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.