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Emerging markets (EEM) - Bear Flag targets $18Back in 2021, I posted about Emerging markets with a title "EEM. Emerging markets could drop within the last leg down" The plan plays out well so far and I found another educational pattern for you on it today. The Bear Flag appears in the chart as I spotted it on time. The price is still within the Flag and breakdown below the downside of the pattern would trigger the continuation of the downtrend after this consolidation. The target is located at the distance of the Pole subtracted from the downside of the Flag. $18 is the bottom of the large range and the aim for the Bear Flag. This is the beauty of the patterns as they match with other type of analysis.
AMEX:EEMEducation
by aibek
The next decade belongs to Latin AmericaFor the past decade, decision-makers in major banks and multinational companies have been focusing their attention on one of the hottest "growth frontiers": emerging markets. During much of the 1980's the prospects in most emerging countries were quite bleak: the debt crisis, inflation and domestic political turbulence. Then a number of "economic miracles" began to pop up, drawing attention to specifically Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe and toward the end of the 80's, Latin America. Latin America struggled with the heavy burdens of the debt crisis, hyperinflation, recession and the transition from authoritarian to democratic governments. Most analysts call the 80's Latin America's "Lost Decade." Most governments in the area came to the realization that they were gradually becoming irrelevant to the investment decisions of major international players and that they would slowly but surely lose ground to Asia and Eastern Europe in the competition for capital and employment opportunities. The region's trade with the rest of the world increased but at a slower pace than in countries at similar stages of their development. Latin America largely remained an exporter of primary goods. In fact, beside the popping off of just particular industry sectors and multinational companies, Latin America never saw a bullrun as a continent. After lagging behind big players like India and China during the Era of Markets (1989–2019), where there was a remarkable increase in global economic interconnectedness and rapid adoption of digital technologies, now it's time to shine for Latin America and to catch up to OECD economies. The next decade is expected to be a transformative period for Latin America with many countries experiencing rapid growth and development. Economic Growth : Latin America's economic growth is expected to continue, driven by a combination of factors such as increased trade, investment, and infrastructure development. The region's large and growing middle class is also driving consumer spending and demand for goods and services. Regional Integration : Latin America is also expected to strengthen its regional integration, with initiatives such as the Pacific Alliance and the Mercosur bloc aiming to promote trade and cooperation among member states. This will help to increase economic competitiveness and attract foreign investment. Demographic Dividend : Latin America is experiencing a demographic dividend, with a large and growing population of young people entering the workforce. This will provide a significant boost to economic growth and innovation, as well as help to address social and economic challenges. Innovation and Technology : Latin America is also expected to become a hub for innovation and technology, with many countries investing in digital infrastructure and innovation hubs. This will help to drive economic growth and create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and job creation. Emerging countries now represent the clear majority of the world's population. Their growth prospects range from 4 to 5% per year in Latin America, 6 to 7% in East Asia and up to 10% in China. These are typically two to three times the expected growth rates of developed countries. In all of these countries, growth will invariably entail the expansion of new middle classes, with outsized needs for consumer durables, housing and mobility. The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index e.g. captures large and mid cap representation across 5 emerging markets countries in Latin America. This index is one of the most trusted measures of how these stock markets in the region are performing. However, all the constituent countries do not have a proportional representation in the index. The country weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index are mostly Brazil 46.6%, Mexico 36.51%, Chile 9.79%, Colombia 4.17% and Peru 2.93% with sectors like materials, energy, consumer staples, common services and financials. Looking at the Index from a technical macro standpoint we can see clearly almost 20 years of an (Wyckoff) accumulation period (with the launch in 1990 probably even longer) and sideways movement resulting in a kind of created bull flag signaling a continuous coming-in of buyers and losing steam of sellers. Furthermore the monthly RSI is printing higher lows and higher highs which is an indicator for a steady uptrend and positive momentum shift towards the upside. No doubt, Latin America is gonna flourish the next decade(s) marking a significant transformation, with the region poised to emerge as a major player on the global stage.
XETR:IUSCLong
by PizzaDriver
ECONOMIC UNITED STATES GDP compared with Other NationsThis chart illustrates the GNP of the USA compared with others over a period of several decades. The USA is on a much slower trajectory of growth than all the other countries on the chart except Russia and Ukraine. This includes the Eurozone, China, India, Mexico, and others. This trend has been in place for decades. It makes for a poor prognosis for the future of the US economically, no matter how much our politicians and other influencers try to hide this.
ECONOMICS:USGNPEducation
by AwesomeAvani
1
Emerging MarketsThis is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout? It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead to breakouts. With that said, obviously, there are many headwinds. To name just a couple: The VIX is at its trend line (support) and could easily oscillate up soon, causing most risk assets to drop lower. This ETF is composed mainly of Chinese stocks which have been volatile and vulnerable to geopolitical events, not to mention Chinese and international stocks, in general, have typically underperformed the S&P 500 over the long term. Traders are like surfers trying to catch waves. Sometimes the wave is a total dud. Sometimes the wave crests right when you get on. Almost always, waves crest while sub-currents on a lower degree are pulling back out. On some rare occasions, however, a large wave occurs because the currents on all levels converge and begin to swell roughly at the same time. This is happening right now to EMQQ. While the weekly oscillator appears to be the only noteworthy incongruent current, it is not in overbought territory, and there is no bearish divergence in the weekly RSI to warrant the possibility that a weekly oscillation down would have a strong downward bias. Additionally, there is a breakout on the weekly chart which, to some extent, undermines the effect of the oscillation down on that timeframe. Only time will tell.
AMEX:EMQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
2
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in. EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43. 42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III. Not trading advice
AMEX:EWZLong
by xtremerider8
EMBASKET are on bearish momentum! 10th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 8388 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 8305 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices sre trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
EShort
by Genesiv
$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
NYSE:PAGSLong
by Fox_Technicals
$TAN $SOL etc long term come back?Hello, The solar sector as seen by $TAN appears to be ready to stage a come back. Money has started to flow into the sector as seen on the CMF and is displaying bullish behavior. On book volume has crossed the average and appears to be showing accumulation of solar stocks. Momentum is returning to this sector. Over the summer months Jun-August we will probably see a solar come back. My favorites for this are $JKS $TAN $SOL and $FSLR Best of luck. As always, I am not responsible for your trades. Control your risk. I am not responsible for your profit or loss. I only provide ideas.
AMEX:TANLong
by tay_tay86
Fade the dollar move, long the Mexican Peso. The dollar has recently broken out against a variety of EMFX crosses. Interestingly, the picture is not the same in the G10 space. With the 10Y yield breaking higher, the narrative is that foreign investors are suddenly attracted to US yield and the dollar receives a bid as a result. We believe it is simply due to rapid growth and inflation expectations changing in the US to the upside. This is bullish to the equity market and bullish risk in general. Add to the cocktail the mix of monetary and fiscal policy in most of the world, and you have tailwinds that will send EM markets higher. Banxico recently cut rates citing soft inflation, however, the majority of Mexico data remains rate-of-change positive. Technically, the dollar reached the 200day exponential moving average and broke out from the prior downtrend. We are fading this as a "fake" breakout. Moreover, we wouldn't be surprised to see dealers hedging gamma above the 20.50 level, causing the slight overshoot. We enter long MXNUSD at 20.80, with a stop at 21, targeting a return to 19.54, where we will book most of the position, and keep SOME in case we see a follow-through downside break.
Short
by MT-Macro
Brazilian real is a buy here. Buy a basket of EMFX vs the USD Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and scared to commit capital to risk-assets. They will be forced to do so in March when performance benchmarks come out. EMFX and commodity exporters should continue to perform strongly as the US pursues the largest stimulus package in history. Recently, the USD looks on the verge of breaking out to the upside, though I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. In Brazil specifically, the likelihood of Selic rates being raised increases the chance of currency appreciation. There are no real organic sellers above 5.40. The risk/reward is for the BRL to rally significantly from here.
Short
by MT-Macro
6