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Emergingmarkets

SSE Shanghai Composite W1 topped w/ a diamond? W2 comingThis China index confirmed its completion of ABC when lockdown ended & their economy resumes. It has risen so much from the ABC correction low of 2888 & we may see wave 1 topping out with a diamond reversal pattern. As seen in the past 2 times shown in chart, a diamond can be either a reversal or continuation pattern so proceed with caution. Reasons why I see this as a reversal: 1) index has already risen 500 points (2888 to 3388 completes the 5 sub-waves of wave 1) without any major retracement. 2) price was rejected exactly at wma 50 & an anchored VWAP from 3300 bottom of July 2021 3) price was rejected at the 2015 red trendline 4) price has reached the 1.272 FIB retracement of the most recent leg down (an ideal spot for abc zigzag retracements) The 2 most probable supports (the 2 yellow zones) for the wave 2 correction are: 1) the 0.383 FIB near the 3100 to 3200 pivot zone 2) the 0.618 zone near 3100 If wave 2 is shallow, then the future wave 4 may be a deeper correction like 61.8% or 78.6%. Not trading advice
SSE:000001Short
by xtremerider8
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in. EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43. 42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III. Not trading advice
AMEX:EWZLong
by xtremerider8
EEM emerging Mkt bottomed @39 or fall further to 37 or 36?EEM now near 41, has already fallen more than 30% from Feb2021 top at 57.19. Two weeks ago it fell to 39 the green VWAP from 2016 & bounced with a weekly hammer candle. It is now being rejected by a FIB CHANNEL level near the yellow 41-42 pivot zone. Holding this zone will see more upside maybe up to 44 or 46 before a c-wave down. If 41/42 does not hold, there are only 2 strong supports down: One is at 37, the black VWAP from 2011, which will be another 9% drop from current price. The worst one is at 36 ( the red VWAP from 2009), another 14% drop from here, making the total crash of 38% from ATH. The 37 to 36 zone will be a good place to slowly average down into EEM. Note that the dollar index DXY seems to be topping out near 105, which will be good for emerging markets, gold, silver, commodities & maybe BTC, which are all priced in terms of dollars. Not trading advice
AMEX:EEMLong
by xtremerider8
ASEA strong w only 0.382 retracement range;15 wedge BO or 13.40?ASEA has been in this yellow box consolidation range sine Feb2018 except during the pandemic plunge which is a BLACKSWAN event & should be discounted. The base of this box is at 13.40. Right now ASEA is making a falling wedge. A falling wedge has a greater chance to break to the upside. If it holds the middle green zone of this box & bounce above 15, it will be a good time to buy. But if green zone fails, next support buy zone is at a 13.40 bounce. Maximum pain level is at 11.65, the FIB 0.618 pivot. Not trading advice
AMEX:ASEALong
by xtremerider8
EEM may retest base of WEDGE since 2007@37; see Buy & Sell zonesEEM Emerging Mkt formed a big Violet wedge since the 2007-2008 crash. It currently gapped down & broke 40, a 0.618 level. If it does not reclaim 40 in the next few days, then It will go down to 37 to retest the lower edge of this wedge. 37 is also a 1.618 retracement of the latest rally. See the 3 zones in the chart. Red is the sell zone. Yellow is the neutral zone & green is the buy zone. The bottom may be near for EEM specially if inflation, the DXY dollar index & TNX the 10-yr yield will peak out soon, pushing equities & risk assets higher. Rise in commodities is also good for EEM countries. Not trading advice
AMEX:EEMLong
by xtremerider8
Better days for Coal India ahead!This stock is often overlooked It is a part of Nifty-50, and major weightage in Nifty-Metal Index as well. It seems it is time that we get our eyes on this counter again The line drawn in the chart is a regression line for Coal India. It is downward sloping currently. But notice that price has closed above the regression line on the weekly charts. If we see the last 4 candles on weekly charts, we observe this:- - All four are green candles - Body-size of candles in increasing (getting larger and larger) Bollinger band expansion bodes well for the stock in the near term. Volume: If we see the past 2&1/2 -3 years volumes, they have been much higher as compared to the periods prior to 2018 Another way to convey this volume strength is that "long-term volume averages are at/around lifetime highs" Recent Coal Shortages, elevated coal prices, prevailing inflationary trends are also tailwinds for the stock **************************************************************************************************************************************************************** ABOVE VIEWS ARE PERSONAL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS BEFORE INVESTING I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED ADVISOR ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************
NSE:COALINDIALong
by Samyak_Shah
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
AMEX:EEMLong
by noam_chom
2
Waiting to see what happens on March 1st***Earnings report may or may not be the catalyst I'm looking for*** BEIJING, Feb. 15, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ: IQ) ("iQIYI" or the "Company"), an innovative market-leading online entertainment service in China, today announced that it will report its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 before the U.S. market opens on March 1, 2022. iQIYI's management will hold an earnings conference call at 6:30 AM on March 1, 2022, U.S. Eastern Time (7:30 PM on March 1, 2022, Beijing Time). Please register in advance of the conference using the link provided below. Upon registering, you will be provided with participant dial-in numbers, Direct Event passcode and unique registrant ID by email. Participant Online Registration: apac.directeventreg.com
NASDAQ:IQLong
by clarkehimself
Why I think it's a good idea to have some EM exposureEmerging markets have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 since the launch of the first EM ETF in 1987. However, during that period, there have been stretches of outperformance. In fact, there appears to be a cycle. EM outperformed from 1987 to 1994, underperformed from 1994 to 2000, outperformed from 2000 to 2010, and underperformed from 2010 until the present. I believe we may be nearing the end of the current down cycle, and approaching a period of EM outperformance. I also believe EM is relatively inexpensive compared to the S&P 500, and that yields on both EM equities and EM debt make a good case for EM investing here. And, finally, I believe that there are significant tail risks ahead for the US and Europe, and some diversification is warranted. Analyzing the Cycle If indeed there's a cycle in the relative performance of EM vs. US, how much longer will the current downswing last before the next upswing? The lengths of the last three EM/US cycles were 2192 days, 2464 days, and 3682 days. That's an exponential progression. If the progression continues, the current cycle should be around 4550 days. We're currently at 4110 days. So, we may be nearing the end of the cycle. (But this is by no means an exact science; I just think it's interesting). Analyzing Valuation Let's compare some basic price ratios on an EM ETF and an S&P 500 ETF. This data comes from Fidelity. IEMG P/E: 12.15 P/B: 1.76 P/S: 1.42 P/FCF: 8.63 Dividend Yield: 3.08% SPY P/E: 23.00 P/B: 4.30 P/S: 3.00 P/FCF: 17.22 Dividend Yield: 1.27% So you're paying roughly 2x as much for the S&P 500 as you are for emerging markets. That might make sense if you expect EM economic growth to greatly lag US economic growth, but that isn't really the story that the economic data tell. The US's share of global GDP has stayed approximately the same over the last several decades (~15%), while EM's share of global GDP has increased from approximately 42% in 1996 to about 60% currently. 71% of global GDP growth is in emerging markets, and only 29% is in developed markets. So the data don't support the view that the US economy is growing much faster than EM. Rather, I think US equities have a high premium for a couple reasons. First, US companies have done a really good job of increasing earnings a lot faster than the economy grows. S&P 500 profit margins have steadily grown from about 6% in 1994 to about 14% today. Secondly, interest rates in the US have gradually fallen over the last several decades, and as interest rates fall, stock market multiples expand. (Instead of buying bonds, investors buy stocks when bond rates and yields are low.) However, we may be nearing the end of both of these trends. 0% is probably the floor for nominal interest rates in the US, and corporate profit margins can't expand forever. (I don't know where the ceiling for margins might be, but I suspect that rising margins are related to falling interest rates, so that if rates hit a floor, margins will hit a ceiling.) If multiple and margin expansion in the US start to hit a limit, then the future of multiple expansion and margin expansion will be emerging markets, where rates are still way above zero and can go a lot lower. Plus, EM investors will get paid a much higher dividend yield in the meantime. EM Debt vs. EM Equities Traditionally, US investors have been advised to maintain a 60-40 portfolio-- 60% stocks, 40% bonds. But with real yields on US bonds deeply negative, a lot of US investors have gone to an all-equities allocation. I'd argue that one way to get bond exposure with better yield is to buy EM bonds rather than US bonds. Comparing VWOB vs GOVT is informative. VWOB is an ETF of sovereign EM bonds, and GOVT is an ETF of sovereign US bonds. As you can see, the overall yield-adjusted return on VWOB has been significantly higher since the start of our data in 2013. The distribution yield on VWOB is about 4.52%, and the distribution yield on GOVT is about 1.43%. So you get way more yield on VWOB. The default risk is higher too, of course, which is why VWOB is more volatile than GOVT. Note that there's been a big dip in relative valuation recently. There are a couple reasons for that. First, with inflation high, emerging markets have been raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions a lot faster than developed markets. And second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine raises the risk that both Ukraine and Russia will default on sovereign debt. I don't know where the relative bottom will be, but I've been buying EM debt on the way down. We're heading into a monetary tightening cycle that poses risks to all global asset prices, but since emerging markets are so far ahead of developed markets in the cycle, it's possible that a lot of the tightening is already priced in for EM. Tail Risks One of the reasons that EM equities and bonds are less popular than the US equivalents is that they're seen as being exposed to a lot of tail risk. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a good example. Autocracy and political instability can lead to bad leadership decisions that tank markets. But I think the US has more political tail risk exposure than we'd like to admit. Our political discourse has been deteriorating for years, with partisanship extremely high, membership in civic organizations extremely low, and voters' policy views increasingly unhinged. Victims of our own success, we're being targeted by highly effective propaganda machines in Russia and China that seek to sow the seeds of political instability. We've also got so much money sloshing around in this country that our political process is being targeted by corporate lobbyists and criminal syndicates as well. It's not a good sign when companies get 10x the return from investing in lobbyists than from investing in R&D. The US still ranks low on measures of corruption, but that's largely because the scales aren't built to estimate the kind of corruption we have in the United States (e.g. "access money"). Consider that the leading presidential candidate for 2024 is under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for financial fraud and is widely suspected of connections to the Russian government, yet there's no real sign of his party even trying to muster a primary challenger. And on the other side, you've got a guy with unprecedented low approval ratings, and his party doesn't seem to be trying to muster a primary challenger either. I don't know how you break the two-party duopoly, but it's increasingly dysfunctional. And all this political dysfunction is arguably parasitic on economic growth. Perhaps even more worrying than political tail risk is climate tail risk. Granted, the US has more resources than other countries that it can deploy to adapt to a changing climate. But it has one big vulnerability that EMs don't have: the North Atlantic current, which is reportedly on the verge of collapse. When the North Atlantic current goes, there will be catastrophic changes in climate for both North America and Europe. The southern hemisphere is less exposed. So, I think southern hemisphere investments make for good diversification to protect against specifically northern hemisphere climate risks.
NYSE:EMFLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Emerging Market Futures Positioned to Move Towards 1100Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The Emerging Markets Index Future (MME1!) appears to be in a descending triangle pattern setup. The support line is observed around the 1210 level while the resistance line was created with the lower highs of 1332, 1305 and 1295. Expectations are for a breakdown in MME1! around 1210 which should take the security lower towards 110. A negation of this chart pattern setup will be seen if MME1! Rallies towards 1300. On the Daily chart MME1! Is making a leg lower towards 1210 support. The overall trend is down. Technical Indicators The RSI is currently less than 50 with the KST in a sell mode. The short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages are above MME1!’s price. The Mas also have had negative crossovers over the last month. These are bearish signs from the technical indicators. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 1300 and a target of 1100. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.41. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to MME1!.
ICEUS:MME1!Short
by Ceddy86
NIFTY500 may outperform the S&P500 RSI has shown a descending triangle - upward breakout TSI has already given a +ve crossover and now has moved over the 0 line Similar signal in KST Indicator Waiting for action signal on NIFTY500 is must before long entry is made ********************************************************************************************* DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor. This content is for educational purposes only. Invest capital at your own risk only after doing your own due diligence *********************************************************************************************
NSE:CNX500Long
by Samyak_Shah
A Spectacular Dip Buy Chinese Stock Exchange Chinese #FXI Large Cap ETF ready for a dip buy around here and I will be watching for the triangle to breakout above the red line. Here are the top 15 holding of the ETF: Symbol Holding % Assets 3690 Meituan Class B 9.51% 700 Tencent Holdings Ltd. 9.08% 9988 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. 7.49% 939 China Construction Bank Corporation Class H 5.92% 9618 JD.com, Inc. Class A 5.39% 2318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. Class H 4.21% 1398 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited Class H 4.11% 9888 Baidu, Inc. Class A 4.06% 2269 Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. 4.02% 1810 Xiaomi Corp. Class B 3.39% 1211 BYD Company Limited Class H 3.31% 9999 NetEase, Inc 3.29% 3968 China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. Class H 3.05% 3988 Bank of China Limited Class H 2.69% 2382 Sunny Optical Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. 1.92%
AMEX:FXILong
by bartuclk
1
We'll the 4.20s soon.Has been a tripp , right? It ain't easy to transition an entire underground movement into a legal bureaucratic compelling business. There's so much potential for these companies. So let's look at the recent price movement. The DMI shows we reached equilibrium around the mid 4s, if we get a broader market uptrend we'll highly likely see our favorite number 4.20. Exceptional volume has shown up meaning an uptrend is forming. If the ship is steady (RSI) well probably could see 5s again end of month. Let's set sail!
FLong
by dodobirdflyup
Emerging Markets Indicates Deeper Correction On StocksHello traders and investors! Today we want to show you an interesting chart with clear Elliott Wave pattern suggesting deeper correction, which may have an impact on stocks across the globe. We are talking about Emerging markets (EEM), where we clearly see a completed five-wave cycle from March 2020 lows following by bigger and deeper (A)-(B)-(C) correction. As you can see, after we noticed a bearish triangle pattern in wave B), we can now see it breaking even lower, ideally for wave (C) that can send the price down to 42 support area. If that's the case and EEM goes sharply and impulsively for wave (C) then be aware of a bigger decline on stocks now at the end of the year. Trade and invest smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
AMEX:EEMShort
by ew-forecast
2
Is it time to invest in China?KWEB is a China technology based ETF. Top 10 holdings by weight: Tencent Holdings ~ 10.62% Alibaba Group Holding ~ 10.32% JD.com ~ 7.21% Meituan ~ 6.99% Pinduoduo Inc ~ 6.97% NetEase Inc ~ 4.71% Baidu Inc ~ 4.27% Bilibili Inc ~ 3.83% Trip.com Group ~ 3.82% JD Health International ~ 3.32% Fundamental Analysis China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown (approximately 30%); historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains. In terms of seasonality, over the past 20 years, October has been amongst the strongest months for the Chinese stock market. Technical Analysis The 50sma has been tested as resistance 3 times before. A breakout above the 50sma could signal a significant change in trend. The RSI has shown a positive divergence, as the last three times, we tested the horizontal line (blue arrow), in each case RSI is showing higher lows.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by dorfmanmaster
4
The Ending of an Era - HSIOriginal Chart This is Based Off 2018 update Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 1990, the HSI index hitting its upper resistance line has nailed every major global market top within a very short timeframe. You can see how perfect this has timed markets with the correlation to the SPX index in the lower chart. Hypothetically speaking, when you would hit the upper resistance line, you would short emerging markets to hedge against whatever is about to happen. Then when this hits the lower resistance line, you would go long major market indexes until you arrive back at the upper resistance line (SPX, etc). 2022 - End of an Era? As most can see, this chart is a very very long narrowing wedge / channel. The volatility between drawdowns and rises was far greater the further back you go, and the drawdowns have all been proportionally smaller as we narrow within the channel bouncing off top and bottom resistance (and sometimes in between). With that said, narrowing channels like this indicate increasing fragility of the trend, and potentially suppressed volatility. Eventually, something has to give, and this will break the long term pattern. I believe we're close to that point, and that's not a good sign for asian markets. I don't know exactly what would happen if this breaks to the downside, but I don't think it would be pretty. Stable systems such as this have a way of becoming extremely chaotic when the stability breaks. Chaotic markets = drawdowns / crashes, and given the current state of Chinese markets and politics, this shouldn't be too surprising that it could be possible. The ongoing Chinese real estate crisis is just getting going, and the party has so far remained committed towards deflating their real estate bubble. Fundamentally, Hong Kong is just as bad if not worse than China from a real estate speculation / valuation perspective, yet there are additional problems in HK with people fleeing the territory due to the Chinese takeover following the 2018 protests. Demographics are strongly against this market, valuations are strongly against this market, and the current economics of this look rather dire without any major positive windows into future development / growth. From a technical perspective, this is also far weaker than every other time it's hit the bottom resistance line. Note that every other instance we hit the lower resistance line, we also were hitting the lower monthly bollinger band at the same time. Not included within the chart, but momentum indicators also are showing a lot of negative divergences. You can see this from simply looking at the chart and noting the covid recovery bounce has been far weaker than every other post-lower boundary recovery bounce. We didn't even make it up to the middle resistance line before retesting. My guess and view is that this won't break easily, but it will break dramatically. I think there is a good chance we see another rally here back towards one of the resistance lines, but after that, momentum will have really worn off. I also think we could chop around the lower resistance for a while, but ultimately, we are likely going to break down here on a secular basis. Maybe Kyle Bass will actually be validated after being wrong for 10+ years (except he's probably already been stopped out of all his poorly timed trades)?
TVC:HSIShort
by GTStockmaster
22