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Emergingmarkets

ChinaYesterday saw some significant moves in several key macro factors. The charts below detail the sharp escalation in China stress (at the national, rather than real estate sector specific level) & the impact that had on broader risk appetite in markets. The Evergrande story has been in motion for months. Up until yesterday, contagion had been restricted to immediate peers – Chinese real estate / financial names, a few Australian miners. What changed yesterday was the move in Chinese Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Sovereign CDS liquidity is poor but the signal is unmistakeable – markets moved this from an idiosyncratic story to one with potentially far broader ramifications. For the first time in a while the risk off move had a material impact on the credit markets – "European financial" & "high yield" bonds especially. Again, our models suggest this is very much a statistical abnormality. The spike in VIX was a significant move on Qi models. VXEEM, VDAX (implied volatility measures for emerging markets and the DAX respectively) & the gold/silver ratio experienced similar moves. What next? China is the epicentre of current market moves & your view on how the Evergrande story unfolds is critical. China bears will see these factor moves as a genuine re-pricing. If so, Qi can high-light those markets that are lagging versus the new environment. In times of stress it is more important than ever to quantify relationships between asset price & the macro environment. LOOK UP™
TVC:VIX
by UnknownUnicorn25542523
Euro Currency at KEY levelThe $Euro has stayed above the orange level, around $109, for a year. We have seen several tests of this level (shown by the purple arrows). Why does it matter? 1. The US dollar has an inverse correlation with the Euro as well as Gold. 2. A strong US dollar negatively affects international equity (such as Europe and Emerging Markets). 3. A weak dollar generally creates a bullish scenario for commodities. 4. Gold has a slightly negative correlation to Bitcoin. Currently at -0.5
AMEX:FXE
by dorfmanmaster
1
Emerging Market Futures in Double Bottom Setup with 1350 TargetTrend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. MSCI Emerging Market Index Futures (MME1!) appears to be in a double bottom pattern setup, with the price currently trading around the second low of the setup, around the 1300 price level. Expectations are for MME1! to rally towards the top of the double bottom pattern setup, 3.3% away from current levels. Technical Indicators MME1! appears to be a couple candles before the completion of the double bottom pattern setup. The futures contract is currently trading around the fractal moving average. However, MME1! is still below its short (25-SMA) and medium (75-SMA) term moving averages. The RSI recently emerged from oversold levels but is still below 50. The KST is approaching a positive crossover. The technical indicators are illustrating that the double bottom is still in a setup mode and can easily fail. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. At the time of publishing MME1! is trading around 1302. The short- term target price is observed around the 1350 price level, expected resistance of the setup. A stop loss is set at 1288. This produces a risk reward ratio of 3.27. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in MSCI Emerging Market Index Futures ( MME1!).
ICEUS:MME1!Long
by Ceddy86
USDBRL Climbs for 8 Straight DaysOne of the most liquid Emerging Market currency crosses, $USDBRL, is advancing for an eight straight trading session through Thursday. This is the longest unbroken bull run for the exchange rate since September 2014. It's impressive that it is advancing in today's session given the Dollar is under pressure of its own, but it seems general risk aversion is the stronger force. A retreat in emerging markets can definitely be a risk response, but perhaps there is more persistence to the belief that central banks will normalize regardless of a little market turbulence than previously believed.
by JohnKicklighter
South Africa (EZA) a good Precious Metals playPrecious metals (PM) have really struggled this week, with the following weekly movement in USD: Gold TVC:GOLD -5.65% Silver TVC:SILVER -7.17% Platinum TVC:PLATINUM -7.2% Palladium TVC:PALLADIUM -8.23% All these PM’s seems to be heavily oversold over the shorter-term, which could see a bit of a recovery over the next week or two. Why is this important? Currently 24% of EZA consists of PM’s, which was the main reason for the recent pullback in the ETF. EZA finds itself at a strong support level and very close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI. Should $48.50 not hold up, my stop loss would be at the 200-day Moving Average (EMA). This currently is $46.86. Should we see a bounce off the current levels, could see EZA test the 50-day EMA at 51.29 resistance, with a break and close above these levels, most probably bringing back new 12-month highs. I am somewhat worried about the negative recent momentum and will monitor closely
AMEX:EZALong
by SchalkLouw
2
Chainlink EMA Ribbon flips bullishHey Friends, Chainlink has been seeing great gains, and the volume really followed through in the crypto crash last week. We can see the EMA ribbon has now flipped with price above the ribbon, and as usual we should see a test of support around the $30 price range before we attempt to locate our new resistance level. Personally I am in LINK for the long haul. Chainlink 2.0 is significant (whitepaper available below) and the latest interview with Sergey Nazarov and Lex Fridman sold me on the practical use case. Some things I learned: Nazarov seems to have created a product that is literally going to improve the world, offering real practical application of DeFi (crop insurance) into emerging markets brought together with smart contracts to reduce risk for the issuer. The smart contract is like a really good vending machine but LINK enables taking factors outside of the blockchain such as weather and using this additional API data to determine the outcome of the smart contract. The integrity of this "third party" data that originates outside of the blockchain is imperative, and they seem to have a compelling product here that seems to be essential for the practical application of DeFi. DeFi is an emerging market, but following that interview I felt much more comfortable understanding where DeFi is really targeted, and the answer is: Emerging Markets. -This was likewise his explanation of why products like BlockFi paying 8.6% yield on a USD position can pay 8.6% for you to literally hold totally liquid dollars. Keep in mind I am still stuck in American Airline Junk bonds I can not unload with a 3.4% coupon with lots of inherent risk within American Airlines. 8.6% to hold a dollar position is remarkable, and it is because these applications are targeting emerging markets where rates are even higher, but the capacity for production is also likewise very high. Chainlink is an emerging market servicing emerging markets initially. Linking outside events to the blockchain to facility a trustworthy action so someone with a $30 Android phone in a country with poor infrastructure, a shoddy government, and weather issues the ability to tap into products like insurance and not have to worry about his local insurance company dragging on the claims settlement for years, and perhaps not honoring their agreement. LINK will bring accountability and lower costs for emerging markets. -High tide raises all ships friends! :) One other interesting tidbit is the SWIFT relationship with Chainlink. Many may not know that the SWIFT system enables transfers of money overseas. -Chainlink and SWIFT formed a relationship back in 2016 when Chainlink won an award at the Innotribe Industry Challenge event by SWIFT. Chainlink touts: “We’re proud to be working with SWIFT on their own SWIFT Smart Oracle. Allowing smart contracts on various networks to make payments, send governance instructions, and release collateral with over 11,000 banks.” If you are a fan of LINK hit the like button or have an alternative analysis please be sure to share in the comments below! White Paper: research.chain.link
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by ZenMode
9
BFLY HITTING SUPPORT - $20 PRICE TARGETBFLY - Current Price $ 10.23 Price Target (short-term) $12.50 Long Term $20 This company created an Ultra sound that is hand held and can give you the same images and accuracy as the ones in use in the USA. The best part about the innovation is the cost reduction. These cost under 3k while most ultra sounds cost a million +. This innovative tech will be used to bring this technology to poorer developing countries. Just reported $0.57 EPS last quarter on an annual basis that would be a PE of 4.5x which is cheap given the growth prospects for this company. Looks great on the chart as we are seeing a double bottom off that $9.80 level. Long shares and calls here.
NYSE:BFLYLong
by Value-Invest
Rotation in international marketsIntroducing the Buffett Indicator One aspect of the recent rotation from growth stocks to value stocks is that investors have been rotating into undervalued markets that have suffered ten-year downtrends. The "Buffett Indicator" provides a way of comparing country-wise stock market valuations. The indicator divides total market cap (TMC) by GDP plus Total Assets of Central Bank (TACB) to calculate the Implied Future Return (IFR): TMC / (GDP + TACB) = IFR Developed Markets Of the developed markets, Singapore ranks best for Implied Future Return: Singapore ($EWS): 6.8% Spain (EWP): 4.9% UK (EWU): 4.7% Australia (EWA): 4.0% Most other developed markets have negative IFR. Of the emerging markets, Egypt has IFR above 25%, and Pakistan above 10%. Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia are all above 8%. Now look at how some of these indexes have been trading. Australia was one of the first to break out of its long down trend in November of last year: Spain also broke out in November: Now the UK has broken out as of yesterday, as you can see in the chart above. Singapore is lagging a bit in sympathy with China, but you can see that it's making a run at its trend line: Emerging Markets The developed markets have definitely outperformed the emerging markets in this rotation. That's because developed market currencies have been crushing the emerging market currencies. I think that we could start to see some emerging market strength, though. South Africa is climbing: Here's Turkey, struggling to break that trend line: Egypt looks to be working on a U-shaped bottom:
Editors' picks
AMEX:EWULong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
38
The Greenback is TurningThe U.S. Dollar Index has trended steadily lower for the last 10 months. But there are growing signs it has bottomed. First, DXY managed to break back above its 50-day simple moving average in late February. It then made a higher high (versus earlier in the month), unlike its lower high in late November. Next, it tried to sell off after the Fed’s uber dovish meeting last week, but quickly moved higher. Next, the bounce occurred around the highs of March 2 and February 5. That suggests resistance has become support. Third, the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is about to follow suit. This reverses a pattern in place since the slide began in June. This strength in DXY could be a warning sign for equities for two reasons. First, it comes despite the Fed’s dovish policy. Second, global-growth assets like the Australian dollar and copper have shown signs of hitting a wall lately. This bounce in the greenback could morph into a flight to safety. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview ​for more. [/i
Editors' picks
TVC:DXY
by TradeStation
52
Chinese Stocks Have Pulled Back HardThe run-up in U.S. bond yields has squeezed the dollar higher and dragged global stocks lower. This could be creating an opportunity in Chinese stocks. The iShares Trust China Large-Cap ETF hit a 13-year high of $54.53 on February 17, followed by a sharp pullback in the last two weeks. A few interesting things appear on the chart. First, FXI has returned to an upward-sloping trend line that began in late September. It’s also near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) where prices bounced immediately before Christmas. Next, Fibonacci shows we’ve retraced about 62 percent of the most recent leg up. Finally, stochastics have returned to an oversold condition. Given the sharpness of the recent drop, traders could watch for more signs of stabilization before jumping in. However, this could prove an interesting opportunity for longer-term trend followers. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:FXILong
by TradeStation
China's Consumer Discretionary ETFFrom the beginning of 2020, emerging markets, and specially China, had been really outperforming. The sector has taken a 12% correction from its high on February 16th. Which was coincidental with the past sell signals from the drawn channel. We have tested the 50sma, which has worked as the lower channel trend line in this system. Risk-reward-ratio is fantastic as we can a stop below the moving average; with a target around $42. Top 5 Holdings: Meituan (10.38%) Alibaba (7.92%) NIO (7.42%) JD (6.98%) PDD (5.94%)
AMEX:CHIQLong
by dorfmanmaster
1