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Emergingmarkets

Big Russian long is comingRussian equities look really good at the end of 2020 & 2021-2025! We take into account declining dxy and rising em currencies, sector rotation and increasing demand for commodities in china, with a favorable pace of capex L-shaped recovery in the energy sector... we also expect reduction of political risks in Russia more, than in other em... the recovery of the Russian economy after the 2008 crisis was frozen in 2014 due to the "sanctions wars"... - in the context of the end of the pandemic and the change in the socio-political paradigm.., we expect the growth of Russian economy (next 8 years) and the growth of equities (next 5 years)...
INDEX:RTSILong
by MITCapital
1
$EEM: Interesting indicator, flashing caution by mid DecemberEmerging markets are flashing an interesting signal here, the weekly trend is up, and strongly, but will expire its current advance by the week ending on Dec 18. If we get some kind of unexpected issue before COVID vaccines are widely available, we could get some kind of correction here perhaps. Alternatively, we get a sideways consolidation and the markets keep rallying until vaccines roll out, by March give or take. This is what many charts seem to indicate. Definitely vital to monitor the action here and be ready to react once we get confirmation of one or the other. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EEM
by IvanLabrie
4
Investors are bullish on US TreasuriesThe tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Fed will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month after Mnuchin requested the FED to return the money set aside for lending programs in the US. This implies we could see a weak US Dollar moving forward. However the pandemic situation could keep investors uneasy for now. A September 2020 pivot Low stands between the currency's next level of major support zone at 88.2xx. I'll take this play from a Commodities and Emerging Markets currencies perspective. Silver is an interesting precious metal that could see this year's pivot high breached to the upside with a $34.xx being a possible target 🎯 for 2021. The USDSGD is in play to breach a storng level of support that held the price twice in both January 2019 and January 2020. If the monthly candle closes below this area, it's next support 🎯 will be around the 1.30xx - 1.31xx supply area.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
JSE T0P40I initially predicted a 17% decline on JSE TOP40, the move is well in motion. See link below South Africa has had one of the worse lockdowns in response to covid19 and it resulted in a reported decline of 51% in GDP. The unemployment numbers and number of business bankrupted are not yet publicly available. South Africa also increased its USD debt during this crisis and in a lot of ways money meant for economic recovery was lost to corruption. During this period there's also been increases in social grants and introduction of new ones despite the decrease in production. When more of the data becomes available i think the stock market will keep falling further, though i doubt new lows could be made, but i am very convinced the we could see prices falling to a range of about 34,000 - 35,000. Share your thoughts in the comments below Like and follow for more content Link in related charts Good Luck!!!
JSE:J200Short
by TradingWithTheTrend
3
EUR/MXN - Opportunities! Technical outlook towards EUR/MXN We were messaged to analyse this pair, since we last looked at this pair was July - Great momentum it has had. It was 1hr chart this time, I am going through daily - Why? ***Higher time frame indicates shorter time frame of movement! *** Technical outlook: Pattern wise - we are being squeezed within price action of a triangle formation but within that we do have a smaller bullish flag occurring which if you go through 4 hr it hasn't broken towards upside yet and we are at support of this pattern. Shorter Trade Plan: Going towards 4hr you could add Fibs retracement and the target for this bullish flag would be 26.52767 and that's the resistance of this formation as well as top of the range is has been for while. (Following the pattern and inner small flag pattern) For further confirmation a close above 50 EMA. Longer term trade plan: You could play the shorter role of the 4hr and even 1hr following the channel down or break out- However, longer term looking at the daily you could wait for a break to either direction, adding alert to resistance and support areas of the pattern, which ever way it breaks from the yellow arrows draw, I have measured the pattern length. On patterns I like to make sure it's a real break of the range so I would wait for break out , get in on the pull back and then take the trade to whichever direction it goes towards. Keep in mind - MXN is an EM currency, if you are interested to look more in depth an advanced view look at MSCI. (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation) All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
If dollar breaks down, it could open 10-yr opportunity in EMFirst of all, I want to acknowledge that I am indebted for this idea to Raoul Pal and the fine folks at Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group. I personally know just enough about finance to be dangerous, but these guys know their stuff and I stand on their shoulders, especially in relation to Forex. The U.S. dollar index is now *very* close to a key breakdown of its 10-year uptrend, as shown on the chart. This is driven not only by the Fed's talk of "overshooting" its 2% inflation target this year, but also by the expectation of massive deficit spending by Congress and the possibility that US policymakers will maintain a loose monetary policy for years to come. If the dollar does break its 10-year uptrend, it could open up a huge opportunity to invest in emerging markets. Emerging markets are strongly inversely correlated with the dollar, so the dollar's strength over the last 10 years has caused emerging markets to underperform vs. the S&P 500. A long-term reversal in the dollar would change that. However, a couple caveats here. First, a lot of FX wonks use the trade-weighted dollar index, in which there's quite a bit further to go till we hit the trendline. In short, temporary changes in trade balance due to the pandemic may be making the dollar index look weaker than it actually is. In trade-weighted terms, the dollar is simply normalizing after a huge spike. My second caveat is that although Donald Trump has been a president of extraordinarily loose monetary policy-- of Modern Monetary Theory even-- Joe Biden has shown signs of being a tight-money guy. It sounds strange to say that Democrats might be the fiscally conservative party this round, but that's the strange reality we live in. Biden's plan to raise corporate tax rates is essentially a tight-money policy that would remove dollars from circulation. So a Democratic sweep in the next election might conceivably cause a return to dollar strength. Trump also recently appointed a gold-standard proponent to Fed Board of Governors, in a sign either that he has no consistent views on monetary policy, or that his views might be growing more conservative. Two more signs that the current administration may be growing more conservative on this are that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said today that "We want a stable dollar," and that the Republican stimulus proposal is only $1 trillion rather than the $2 - 3.5 trillion that some have predicted. Plus, if the stimulus excludes relief for state and local governments (as in the Republican plan), then monetary tightening will be inevitable because state and local governments will have to raise taxes to make up for revenue shortfalls this year. (Again, taxes are a tight-money policy because they remove dollars from circulation.) So while forex traders seem broadly bearish on the dollar as it approaches this trend line, I'm personally less certain that we'll see a breakdown. On this side of the trend line, I think it still makes sense to be long US dollars and US equities. But should we get a trend line break, I'm prepared to start rebalancing to include some emerging markets in my portfolio mix.
TVC:DXY
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
USDMXN - Peso - Which way?!The EM currencies aren't moving as much considering the major pairs are...that's an interesting thought to keep in mind! If you're looking for good risk reward trade, i'd go to EM currencies - Major pairs are little over extended. However, for those swing traders PESO looking clean...which way will it break. Will we carry on the pattern of descending channel? Will we reach the retracement Fibonacci 161.8 target? OR will we head higher out of channel and go towards the resistance areas? Add alerts or orders for whichever direction you feel its breaking out to. Remember, we've had a lot of dollar weakness. This is just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
by Trade_Journal
Brazilian ETF: Descending Triangle for Latin American NationGlobal stocks had a nice bounce in early June, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin as the “reopening” trade took hold and the Federal Reserve kept the spigots of easy money flowing. The MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rode that wave higher at the time but has fallen flat more recently. Weakening of energy prices and a spreading coronavirus outbreak in the Latin American nation has also made matters worse. This has produced a descending triangle for the ETF, with a series of lower highs since June 8. Downside support is around $28.50. This creates the potential for bearish continuation if the lower price level is broken. Timing is unclear, and there could be some tests above $29.50 to the falling trendline. However, the overall setup could be interesting because EWZ has potential downside toward the low $20s if the current support level breaks.
AMEX:EWZShort
by TradeStation
1
EM Currencies Show Weakness On H1 TimeThe above chart shows the hourly ichimoku cloud of FXCM's emerging market currencies index - EMBASKET. The observations are as follows: - The lime green leading span A had crossed below the red leading span B. - The forward cloud is light pink and indicates resistance. - Price is below the black base line and the base line is moving in a bearish direction. - The orange lagging span is below price, which is indicative of weakness. These observations suggest an element of bearishness for FXCM's EMBASKET.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
1
VWO - following the forecasted trendVWO is finishing a leading diagonal first wave out of the the contracting triangle as forecasted in the April 5 post. It should continue its positive trend ahead with minor corrections on the way. The possible end of minute wave v of minor 1 should be at around 39. After this minor 2 wave should retrace to around 35 before the up trend continues. If prices crosses the lower leading diagonal channel, the odds are that minor 2 correction is already happening. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
AMEX:VWOLong
by SkylinePro