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A COUNTRY almost in DEFAULT (again). Who's next?--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! --- Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history. You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved. This is just a reflection of the symptoms that can already be felt in other countries of the world. Almost all emerging countries suffering high inflation and a continued devaluation of its currency against the dollar, this won't finish well. Other countries to watch: Turkey, Brazil, Australia... all against the dollar that would fall the last. What are your thoughts? Here please you can find a little bit of knowledge and fresh news I wanted to share with you. www.youtube.com Keep safe!
by harribatu
EM Currencies May Be Setting Up For Next Leg DownThe left chart shows the daily chart of FXCM's EMBASKET, which is an equally weighted index of the CNH, MXN, ZAR and TRY. The index is below its black 20-day SMA and the SMA is pointing down. Moreover, the daily RSI is below 50 (blue rectangle), which is indicative of a bearish momentum. The hourly EMAs have crossed bearishly and the hourly RSI has pushed below 50 (green ellipses). These are bearish developments, at a time when the daily chart is reacting off of SMA resistance.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
1
DXY THEORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD YET!THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY! RECENTLY, PETER SCHIFF PLACED A BET WITH BRENT JOHNSON ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DXY, STATING THAT THE DXY WOULD BE WEAKER THAN 99 IN JANUARY 2021, WHILE BRENT JOHNSON PREDICTED IT WOULD BE HIGHER! PETER'S THEORY CLAIMS THAT THE CURRENCIES OF PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOR MANY OBVIOUS REASONS, WHILE BRENT CLAIMS THAT THE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF U$Ds WORLDWIDE WILL ACT AS DEMAND ON THE DOLLAR, INCREASING IT'S VALUE AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES! I BELIEVE THEY COULD BE BOTH RIGHT, AND THAT PETER MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE IN USING THE DXY AS A BAROMETER: BRENT JOHNSON IS RIGHT BECAUSE: THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL ABSORB ALL U$Ds CREATED, AND EUR, GBP, CHF AND CAD WILL ESPECIALLY SUFFER BECAUSE OF THE EURODOLLAR SYSTEM! WESTERN ECONOMIES COULD ALSO WEAKEN SEVERELY WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCIES IN ADDITION TO A EURODOLLAR SQUEEZE! PETER SCHIFF IS RIGHT BECAUSE: AS COUNTRIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY DIMINISH THEIR TRADE WITH THE U.S.A., AS THEY CEASE USING THE EURODOLLAR TO SETTLE FORMS OF TRADE NOT INVOLVING THE U.S.A. (MAINLY OIL), AND AS THE AMOUNT OF U$Ds' CREATED IN EXCESS OF THEIR DEMAND FOR DOLLARS INCREASES, PRODUCTIVE ASIAN AND EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES WILL ABSOLUTELY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR, BUT THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE DXY! IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, AND THEN SOME, WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES, AND I BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE, BUT I DO NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY EXPLAINED ABOVE!
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
US vs. Emerging MarketsThe best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to reverse to the historical mean. If we use Total Market Cap/GDP a metric (warren buffet's favourite metric for valuing the entire stock market), and this concept of reversion to the mean to get exact numbers for expected returns, here is what we get: Estimated Annualized Return (Next 10 Years, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 1% Emerging Markets: 23% Estimated Total Market Cap to GDP (Current, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 122% Emerging Markets: 40% Once this current recession/crash is over, I expect sideways movement and slow recovery for US stocks., vs. explosive growth for emerging markets similar to the 2000s. TL;DR: US market bad. Emerging markets good
AMEX:SPY
by delusional
EMBASKET Bounces Off Of S3 Pivot on H1Above we see the hourly chart of FXCM's EMBasket, which has bounced off its S3 pivot and been heading upwards since. It is currently tackling resistance at its S1 pivot level. It it breaks through than the next level of overhead resistance may be at the central pivot (P). In assessing if the current price action is a correction in a largely down move we are looking for three occurrences: - A cross by the green 5-hour EMA below the orange 10-hour EMA. - A break of price below the blue upwards sloping trend line. - A cross of the RSI to below the 50 level.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
Emerging markets taking a poundingWhile the emotional crowded is full focussed on the S&P, CoronaVirus, Crypto, "exotic" currencies are all dropping hard. Economic slowdown ==> The poor end up in the street first. Turkish people really hate it when I call their country a third world country. They are in denial poor guys, and have been for decades. Just the way it is not my fault. Parts of europe are too, greece, portugal african country at this point, spain on its way, then the rest of europe. RIP. The monthly chart is pretty clear... It would be pretty nice to get a retrace I only do reversals. I think I understand how going with the trend is, it is much much more forgiving but you very often get small reward to risk. This is not financial advice but it's looking like it is just going to continue and continue and continue. If you long this pair there is big interest against you... Kinda ruins it I feel. In the short term there may be some explosive moves to buy, idk... I guess I was right the first time: Other ones I bet when normies / plebes start hearing of those, or seeing how much they moved they'll get all excited and there will be an assault of legions of reptilian brains and wild moves in random directions, but for now they are rather tame with normies focussed on coronafartinthewind, maybe still brexit a bit, crypto still, and "CO2 is a pollutant" joke of the millenia (Tesla in particular). Real speculators want tame markets, predictable and calm (well volatile but not hysterical). Losers chase the most emotional markets they heard about on the news. I am here to make money, not to talk about the latest popular fad with my family or friends (don't have any).
Long
by MrRenev
1
Telkom, Shoprite & Mr Price - Showing SA Economy TrajectoryThe Telkom weekly chart showing a Hammer after effortlessly tearing down multiple support levels. You have to zoom back to 2010-11 to view the price at which Telkom was last at these levels. It sounds irrational that a share could show so much fear with a lot of volume to back that up. What Went Wrong? Telkom pattern isn't strange for JSE in recent times, the market has changed faster than we can change our minds about it. Technical Analysis has failed many traders quietly leaving a trail of disaster. I was digging to find out what could be wrong because this script played out with Shoprite JSESHP followed by Mr Price JSEMRP. One thing I could pick was that these shares featured mostly on foreign buyers lists & we must understand the nature of foreign portfolio investors. South African markets like most Emerging Markets aren't dominated by local investors & foreign investors usually invest profits from own local markets into Emerging Markets. For example Apple Inc is up over 90% in USA. If an investor bought & sold Apple they made a good profit, if they decided to invest some of that profit into an emerging market they are investing a portion of their profit not capital. Now we must appreciate that a loss of profits is a small matter compared to a loss of capital. Now consider a trader/investor faced with loss on profit from profit? If I invest $1000 & makes $1900 then invest the $900 and make $1400, the $1400 isn't the capital base but profit from profit. Now if I invest $500 (1400-900) into an emerging market I have invested profit on profit. Psychologically how much would the blow be if I am to sell the $500 in emerging market? Not a big blow! This is money one can afford to lose 100% & still remain over 90% in the black. So What Then to a local Investor/Trader In emerging markets we must appreciate we are at the mercy of this profit from profit, architects of our own time bombs because we do not invest in our own markets beyond the insurance companies. This script of a tanking market I lived it in Zimbabwe, South Africa feels like a de javu & when the last foreign portfolio investor leaves then a stagnant market follows. If you think this is far-fetched consider that in South Africa less than 5% of the population has any form of saving. The best a trader/investor can do is recognize the market in which you operate in, be always on the lookout for companies dominated by foreign portfolio investors & be ready to pull a stop on adverse news because the sell-off will come in irrational fashion. The more bad news sustains the more we are going to see this horror movie repeated. Magnus Heystek will continue to be proved a genius, Local fund managers will continue to bemoan that South Africa's quality is being overlooked but who cares if S & P 500 is giving amazing returns? South Africa is now a cheap market with a lot of potential for rebound, however that potential might just die as that, potential. It is up to the political authorities to inspire confidence for a return of those who can make the market tick in large volumes. The inconsistency & hesitancy on the part of those in power might prove overpowering of any goodwill. Eskom for one needs an urgency to look at the problem then go all out to to fix, it might mean diverting expenditure from elsewhere and give it a priority because this is one company capable of keeping the bad news coming via terrible trading updates. South Africa is the door to Africa, forget Rwanda, Ethiopia and other fanciful stories. An investor is likely to forage into Africa having learnt a thing or two in South Africa. If the lights go out in South Africa then it will take a Singaporean story to attract portfolio investors again. Until then, happy fishing in the murky waters. You might catch an eel or a cat fish, just brave it and persevere. If it becomes all too much then take Magnus' advice to follow the money. But at current levels the S & P 500 is perched very high, some might jump out of the pan straight to the fire, this is the time for calm heads & calculated risk.
JSE:TKG
by runyamhere
1
Brazil ETF Trying to Break Multiyear ResistanceEmerging markets and global stocks have roared to life at the end of 2019. The reasons are a dovish Federal Reserve , which drives buyers away from the U.S. dollar , and calming tensions between the U.S. and China. Brexit clarity has helped too. Along with China, Brazil is the most actively traded emerging market. Its iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has even stronger technicals than the iShares China ETF . Unlike the China fund, EWZ's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above its 200-day day. EWZ is also pushing a longer-term resistance level around $48 running back to early last year. The breakout hasn't been confirmed yet, but traders may want to keep an eye on it. Global stocks have been neglected for so long that there could be a rush of money back into them if this change in sentiment continues. Similar turns from "hated" to "loved" recently occurred in stocks like CVS Health and UnitedHealth . Brazil has two other things potentially in its favor. First is its reliance on commodities, which have started to outperform and got a bullish call from Goldman Sachs this week. Second, Brazil has passed a key pension overhaul that's expected to help fix its chronic budget problems.
AMEX:EWZLong
by TradeStation
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary • TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern. • Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel. • Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts. Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend. A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets. Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment. Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
TADAWUL:TASILong
by BrucePowersCMT
SPX500 future for coming weeks Long story short. New highs incoming. I went long today before VIX loses its mind from the good ole "EVERYTHINGS GANA CRASH" people and premiums on calls/puts go wild. ---Indicators: RSI is trending up. not over bought yet. Gold sold off hard today. Still down trending off a massive weekly resistance TLT had money go into it and its rise got smacked back down to almost even with its weekly open emerging markets had a great week - always good vix is vix - My assumption is we see volatility go crazy as we swing around the monthly resistance. Then it will die down until election time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Trader_RoaM