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Emergingmarkets

US vs. Emerging MarketsThe best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to reverse to the historical mean. If we use Total Market Cap/GDP a metric (warren buffet's favourite metric for valuing the entire stock market), and this concept of reversion to the mean to get exact numbers for expected returns, here is what we get: Estimated Annualized Return (Next 10 Years, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 1% Emerging Markets: 23% Estimated Total Market Cap to GDP (Current, source: gurufocus.com) United States: 122% Emerging Markets: 40% Once this current recession/crash is over, I expect sideways movement and slow recovery for US stocks., vs. explosive growth for emerging markets similar to the 2000s. TL;DR: US market bad. Emerging markets good
AMEX:SPY
by delusional
EMBASKET Bounces Off Of S3 Pivot on H1Above we see the hourly chart of FXCM's EMBasket, which has bounced off its S3 pivot and been heading upwards since. It is currently tackling resistance at its S1 pivot level. It it breaks through than the next level of overhead resistance may be at the central pivot (P). In assessing if the current price action is a correction in a largely down move we are looking for three occurrences: - A cross by the green 5-hour EMA below the orange 10-hour EMA. - A break of price below the blue upwards sloping trend line. - A cross of the RSI to below the 50 level.
FX:EMBASKETShort
by FXCM
Emerging markets taking a poundingWhile the emotional crowded is full focussed on the S&P, CoronaVirus, Crypto, "exotic" currencies are all dropping hard. Economic slowdown ==> The poor end up in the street first. Turkish people really hate it when I call their country a third world country. They are in denial poor guys, and have been for decades. Just the way it is not my fault. Parts of europe are too, greece, portugal african country at this point, spain on its way, then the rest of europe. RIP. The monthly chart is pretty clear... It would be pretty nice to get a retrace I only do reversals. I think I understand how going with the trend is, it is much much more forgiving but you very often get small reward to risk. This is not financial advice but it's looking like it is just going to continue and continue and continue. If you long this pair there is big interest against you... Kinda ruins it I feel. In the short term there may be some explosive moves to buy, idk... I guess I was right the first time: Other ones I bet when normies / plebes start hearing of those, or seeing how much they moved they'll get all excited and there will be an assault of legions of reptilian brains and wild moves in random directions, but for now they are rather tame with normies focussed on coronafartinthewind, maybe still brexit a bit, crypto still, and "CO2 is a pollutant" joke of the millenia (Tesla in particular). Real speculators want tame markets, predictable and calm (well volatile but not hysterical). Losers chase the most emotional markets they heard about on the news. I am here to make money, not to talk about the latest popular fad with my family or friends (don't have any).
Long
by MrRenev
1
Telkom, Shoprite & Mr Price - Showing SA Economy TrajectoryThe Telkom weekly chart showing a Hammer after effortlessly tearing down multiple support levels. You have to zoom back to 2010-11 to view the price at which Telkom was last at these levels. It sounds irrational that a share could show so much fear with a lot of volume to back that up. What Went Wrong? Telkom pattern isn't strange for JSE in recent times, the market has changed faster than we can change our minds about it. Technical Analysis has failed many traders quietly leaving a trail of disaster. I was digging to find out what could be wrong because this script played out with Shoprite JSESHP followed by Mr Price JSEMRP. One thing I could pick was that these shares featured mostly on foreign buyers lists & we must understand the nature of foreign portfolio investors. South African markets like most Emerging Markets aren't dominated by local investors & foreign investors usually invest profits from own local markets into Emerging Markets. For example Apple Inc is up over 90% in USA. If an investor bought & sold Apple they made a good profit, if they decided to invest some of that profit into an emerging market they are investing a portion of their profit not capital. Now we must appreciate that a loss of profits is a small matter compared to a loss of capital. Now consider a trader/investor faced with loss on profit from profit? If I invest $1000 & makes $1900 then invest the $900 and make $1400, the $1400 isn't the capital base but profit from profit. Now if I invest $500 (1400-900) into an emerging market I have invested profit on profit. Psychologically how much would the blow be if I am to sell the $500 in emerging market? Not a big blow! This is money one can afford to lose 100% & still remain over 90% in the black. So What Then to a local Investor/Trader In emerging markets we must appreciate we are at the mercy of this profit from profit, architects of our own time bombs because we do not invest in our own markets beyond the insurance companies. This script of a tanking market I lived it in Zimbabwe, South Africa feels like a de javu & when the last foreign portfolio investor leaves then a stagnant market follows. If you think this is far-fetched consider that in South Africa less than 5% of the population has any form of saving. The best a trader/investor can do is recognize the market in which you operate in, be always on the lookout for companies dominated by foreign portfolio investors & be ready to pull a stop on adverse news because the sell-off will come in irrational fashion. The more bad news sustains the more we are going to see this horror movie repeated. Magnus Heystek will continue to be proved a genius, Local fund managers will continue to bemoan that South Africa's quality is being overlooked but who cares if S & P 500 is giving amazing returns? South Africa is now a cheap market with a lot of potential for rebound, however that potential might just die as that, potential. It is up to the political authorities to inspire confidence for a return of those who can make the market tick in large volumes. The inconsistency & hesitancy on the part of those in power might prove overpowering of any goodwill. Eskom for one needs an urgency to look at the problem then go all out to to fix, it might mean diverting expenditure from elsewhere and give it a priority because this is one company capable of keeping the bad news coming via terrible trading updates. South Africa is the door to Africa, forget Rwanda, Ethiopia and other fanciful stories. An investor is likely to forage into Africa having learnt a thing or two in South Africa. If the lights go out in South Africa then it will take a Singaporean story to attract portfolio investors again. Until then, happy fishing in the murky waters. You might catch an eel or a cat fish, just brave it and persevere. If it becomes all too much then take Magnus' advice to follow the money. But at current levels the S & P 500 is perched very high, some might jump out of the pan straight to the fire, this is the time for calm heads & calculated risk.
JSE:TKG
by runyamhere
1
Brazil ETF Trying to Break Multiyear ResistanceEmerging markets and global stocks have roared to life at the end of 2019. The reasons are a dovish Federal Reserve , which drives buyers away from the U.S. dollar , and calming tensions between the U.S. and China. Brexit clarity has helped too. Along with China, Brazil is the most actively traded emerging market. Its iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has even stronger technicals than the iShares China ETF . Unlike the China fund, EWZ's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above its 200-day day. EWZ is also pushing a longer-term resistance level around $48 running back to early last year. The breakout hasn't been confirmed yet, but traders may want to keep an eye on it. Global stocks have been neglected for so long that there could be a rush of money back into them if this change in sentiment continues. Similar turns from "hated" to "loved" recently occurred in stocks like CVS Health and UnitedHealth . Brazil has two other things potentially in its favor. First is its reliance on commodities, which have started to outperform and got a bullish call from Goldman Sachs this week. Second, Brazil has passed a key pension overhaul that's expected to help fix its chronic budget problems.
AMEX:EWZLong
by TradeStation
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary • TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern. • Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel. • Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts. Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend. A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets. Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment. Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
TADAWUL:TASILong
by BrucePowersCMT
SPX500 future for coming weeks Long story short. New highs incoming. I went long today before VIX loses its mind from the good ole "EVERYTHINGS GANA CRASH" people and premiums on calls/puts go wild. ---Indicators: RSI is trending up. not over bought yet. Gold sold off hard today. Still down trending off a massive weekly resistance TLT had money go into it and its rise got smacked back down to almost even with its weekly open emerging markets had a great week - always good vix is vix - My assumption is we see volatility go crazy as we swing around the monthly resistance. Then it will die down until election time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Trader_RoaM
An extremely easy but super efficient investing ruleIt's actually disgusting that it would be so easy... Countries approaching socialism: Sell & Let them starve. Countries abandonning socialism: Buy & Hold. It's barely more complicated than this. Most African countries have been living in absolute misery probably because after the soviet union stopped sending them free stuff, the european union and americans have been taking pity on them and throwing free stuff at them. To feel good about themselves. All this has accomplished is enabling awful (even much worse than the soviet union's) anti business anti ownership regulations, the people need to be pushed to the limit and have nothing to lose and nothing to hope for to make a change, all these "helpful" organisations sending food clothes medicines, all these altruist doctors, they are responsible for misery in Africa. If they think they are going to heaven for their "good actions" boy do I have bad news for them (: With the US stock market in a bubble and nearing explosion I'd say it's not the time to invest right now. The whole world will feel the shockwave. Some GDP growths: I've been looking a bit at Rwanda but just to get a better idea, to be able to more easilly recognize when this happens ELSEWHERE, I will not invest in a country of murderers. While the herd is getting all excited by big US names and new techs (dot coms, crypto...) AFTER the gains have been made, anyone will a brain bigger than a walnut should look for everything that is undervalued, it should be a habit. I am a speculator not an investor but I figured this is how you do it. I am not saying there is no speculating, actually investing in some 3rd world unstable countries you better be prepared to lose then totality of your investment, but it can also go way up. Imagine this: some complete ruin of a country, worth zero, simply mentionning its name and investment in the same sentence makes your average person laugh. The harder they laugh the bigger the potential. "The people" are ALWAYS wrong just do the exact opposite. Also, if the population of the USA gets butthurt and jealous enough they WILL vote socialist I can guarentee 100% it will happen if they get salty enough. Just like Donald Trump could win the election in 2016. And when that happens, all the world economies relying on free innovations coming from "evil capitalist" US will crash. Forget GDP growth. Plus there's the climate religious freaks that want to conquer the world. Also europe free ride on the back of the US military will probably be over. They're going to have to spend their own money. Having ideals is cute when you have a large nation doing all the work for you, or when you have huge Oil exports and literal unironic millions of slaves. But when reality knocks at the door, it wields a baseball bat. Always remember: During the white revolution Iran experienced double digit growth.
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
4
EW Analysis: Bullish Emerging Markets May Push EURUSD HigherHello traders! Today we will talk about emerging markets(EEM) and EURUSD. As you can see in the first chart, there's a positive correlation between emerging markets and EURUSD. Of course, there are no tick by tick correlations, but the current wave structure it's telling us that we may see a bigger recovery in the upcoming days/weeks. Emerging markets can be trading in a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) recovery up to 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 46 area, especially after that break out of the corrective channel, so in our opinion EEM may easily stay in the bullish trend. At the same time we can see strong and impulsive recovery on EURUSD, which is telling us that the temporary bottom can be in place and a bigger three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction can be underway up to 1.15 - 1.18 area, mainly because of break out of the wedge pattern (ending diagonal). Notice that these are daily charts and they may take some time to completely unfold, so don't get confused on the smaller time frame charts. We just want to give you an idea, where the markets can be headed long/mid-term. Be humble and trade smart! If you like our analysis, then please give us a like and share it! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Education
by ew-forecast
5
Colombian Peso under Pressure The Colombian peso has been making headlines lately. There are calls of Colombia to dollarize amidst some expert calls that the COP might be overvalued by as much as 30%. This chart is an update to my last year's chart that correctly forecasted the current price range in the usdcop pair. According to this chart, continued dollar strength and a weak cop could see prices rise by 30% $4500 once we break the key $3500 level. -- El peso colombiano ha estado en los titulares últimamente. Hay llamadas de Colombia a dolarizar en medio de algunas llamadas de expertos de que la COP podría estar sobrevaluada hasta en un 30%. Este gráfico es una actualización de mi gráfico del año pasado que pronosticó correctamente el rango de precios actual en el par usdcop. De acuerdo con este gráfico, la fortaleza del dólar y un policía débil del cop podrían ver los precios aumentar en un 30% a $4500 una vez que rompamos el nivel clave de $ 3500.
by You23
$USDZAR might see some short term reprieveThe Rand / Dollar exchange rate has consolidated for a couple of sessions below the previous highs seen last in September 2018. Should the rand bears decide to take further profit, two short term levels to watch out for are 15.00 and 14.60. However, should the rand weaken past the 15.46 closing print from Monday the 19th of August, this should put the rand in a very precarious position with further downside expected. For now, the fact that the previous highs seen in September 2018 have held together with the fact that we are starting to see Divergence develop on the RSI (Higher highs in price - lower highs in RSI), gives me a clue that momentum is waning and we could expect a very short term correction back to my levels indicated. However, the medium/longer term trend on the USDZAR pair is still very much in favor of much higher levels, so i would trade this very short term view with a high degree of caution.
Short
by MarcoOlevano