Trend Divergence in S&P500 E-mini Futures Weekly ChartHere's something I'm keeping an eye on right now.
I'm not normally a swing trader, but since I do hold some stocks long term, I am always looking out for long term danger to the equity markets. I trade the ES futures intraday, on a 30 minute chart. Every Sunday however, I print out weekly candle charts for all the futures markets that I like to follow. I take my time drawing on them by hand with a pen and ruler, and then put them on the wall above my monitor for the trading week.
There is a divergence between the new all time high in ES1! and the lower high on the volume weighted directional bias. Now, on shorter time frames, these divergences are not uncommon, and always a warning to take profits if you have been trading in the direction of the trend. I have yet to see a case with divergence like this on the 30 MIN chart, where price kept making higher highs and the VWDB finally turned around and followed it upward. Instead, price seems to always eventually roll over and find a lower low before things can rebalance.
I have to admit however that I have not yet seen such a stark divergence on such a high timeframe as a weekly chart. I really do not know how this is going to play out. I will be watching the equity market closely the next few weeks to see. This indicator is still experimental but I have found great value in it so far.
