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2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels : 5700 - 5850 bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit. Invalidation is below 5690. bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh. Invalidation is above 5850. short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears tried and sold off for decent points but the close was not bearish enough to hurt the bulls or make them nervous. Bears are only able to get spike selling going but no or bad follow through. Neutral going into tomorrow since most daily bear bars have big tails below them. Bulls are still in BTFD mode and we could easily test the highs again. sp500 e-mini futures bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as shit are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730. From my weekly update comment: I promised an early breakout this week and we got one. Bears sold off decently today but the close was not strong enough. We almost touched the daily 20ema at 5725 and it’s more likely it will produce another pullback than breaking on the first or second try after such a strong rally the past 3 weeks. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge - minor bull wedge broke and we have the bigger one left) key levels: 5700 - 5800 bull case : Bulls want to keep the market two sided and stay above 5700. They are still in BTFD mode and happily bought the first touch of the daily 20ema for 3 weeks. Their next target is to trade above the sell spike at 5815 because most bears will have their stop around that area. Invalidation is below 5700. bear case: Bears either keep it below 5780 or many will give up and will only try around 5800 again. The 50% pullback from today is around 5772 and bears stepped in again around that price. If bears can keep the 1h 20ema resistance, it would help their case a lot but they only have confirmation below 5733 and today they only got rejected big time below 5750. The selling was certainly strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move could get us to 5670ish and near the lower bull wedge trend line. Invalidation is above 5785. short term: Neutral for now. I hope for a second leg but the 1h bars today were not good for the bears. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: US open was almost the high tick of the day. Happens not that often. Selling around the open was strong enough but most of the time you get an opening reversal. So overall very trick to sell this today while the spike was happening. Buying 5740 was profitable 4 times and the easier trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : Current narrative is that hedge funds are continuing to sell tech. You don’t need to know that. You can see it on the chart. The bear gap got smaller but is still open while other markets making daily new ath. Given the current overall market environment, I doubt bears can keep this selling up and market below 20600. Bulls printed the 4th consecutive daily bull bar. At some point one side will give up and I heavily favor the bulls. Bulls had the strong Globex bull breakout but the selling spike from the US open was unexpected and a big surprise in strength. Bulls pulled back exactly to the 50% retracement afterwards. Key level for more upside or more downside. current market cycle: Most dominant pattern is the broad bull channel and the nested bull wedge with the August and September lows. key levels: 20000 - 21600 bull case: Bulls want the retest of 21215 and have all the arguments on their side, once they close the bear gap to 20670. We are in W3 of this current bull trend and the measured move from W1 is around 21000. If you only look at the daily chart, do you honestly go “I want to sell this”. Ofc not. You want to get long. Only below 20000 many bulls will begin to doubt the strength of this move up. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bear gap is the last argument for the bears but it’s so weak, I expect a give up bar tomorrow to close this week max bullish and have a clear buy signal going into next week. Not saying bears can not have a miracle reversal like they did on 2024-07-11 or 2024-08-22. Invalidation is above 19670. short term: Max bullish if we stay above 20000. Targets above are 19700 and then 21000/21215. medium-long term: Outlook was wrong. Bulls are currently having another shot at retesting the peak bubble highs to make another one. If we get there, it could be the short of a decade opportunity. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Long during Globex obviously where market held above the 5m 20ema for 270 points. Selling the US open was obviously the best trade but difficult imo. Market rallied so hard, that strong of a reversal is not common.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath. current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart key levels: 18300 - 19800 bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes. Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade : Nope. trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540. current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range. key levels: 5400 -5540 bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 5460. bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560. Invalidation is above 5540. short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness. trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Some decent selling today but tis just a dent compared to the bull rally from the previous 3 weeks. Nvidia numbers were in line but the buyback should have been good enough for more euphoria and instead nasdaq puked for 200 points. I do think bears are favored tomorrow but will need follow through below 19200 on nasdaq. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market continues inside the bull flag and the longer it goes on the more neutral market becomes. Nvidia numbers were in line but market puked 200 points, despite the 50b buyback. Since it recovered most of it as of now, I think we have to wait for tomorrow’s US session for a clear direction but I do think bears chances are very good that we have seen the lower high at 20025 and we go lower from here. I want confirmation below 19200 tomorrow. If bulls can get above 19500 again, they are favored for 19600 or higher again. current market cycle: Bull flag inside the bigger trading range key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case : Bulls want a new ath but Nvidia earnings did not help their case. Still a bull flag after the insane reversal. I wait for tomorrow’s price action. Bulls need to get above 19500 for more upside. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears hope for armageddon. They need to keep this below 19500 to keep their chances of more downside decent. Getting short between 19350 - 19500 is risky but can work. Validation for more downside is a 1h close below 19200. If bears manage that, we could have a bloody day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Neutral. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling the open was pretty decent I guess. There was no reason to exit until we hit 19400 and after that, market just went sideways.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds