Bulls and Bears zone for 09-11-2024S&P 500 has posted back to back gains this week since the pullback last week.
Patience is the virtue.
Level to watch : 5501 --- 5499
Emini
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540.
current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range.
key levels: 5400 -5540
bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 5460.
bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560.
Invalidation is above 5540.
short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness.
trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565.
comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5390.
bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out.
Invalidation is above 5540.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday.
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
Bulls and Bears zone for 09-06-2024This week traders sentiment seems to down. Historically, September is a challenging month for the market.
Level to watch: 5516 ---5514
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally.
Invalidation is above 5666.
short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax.
trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-29-2024S&P is trying to rally during ETH session.
Any test of yesterday's High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5626 ---5624
Reports to watch:
Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Some decent selling today but tis just a dent compared to the bull rally from the previous 3 weeks. Nvidia numbers were in line but the buyback should have been good enough for more euphoria and instead nasdaq puked for 200 points. I do think bears are favored tomorrow but will need follow through below 19200 on nasdaq.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Market continues inside the bull flag and the longer it goes on the more neutral market becomes. Nvidia numbers were in line but market puked 200 points, despite the 50b buyback. Since it recovered most of it as of now, I think we have to wait for tomorrow’s US session for a clear direction but I do think bears chances are very good that we have seen the lower high at 20025 and we go lower from here. I want confirmation below 19200 tomorrow. If bulls can get above 19500 again, they are favored for 19600 or higher again.
current market cycle: Bull flag inside the bigger trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case : Bulls want a new ath but Nvidia earnings did not help their case. Still a bull flag after the insane reversal. I wait for tomorrow’s price action. Bulls need to get above 19500 for more upside.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears hope for armageddon. They need to keep this below 19500 to keep their chances of more downside decent. Getting short between 19350 - 19500 is risky but can work. Validation for more downside is a 1h close below 19200. If bears manage that, we could have a bloody day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 19500.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling the open was pretty decent I guess. There was no reason to exit until we hit 19400 and after that, market just went sideways.
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5600 - 5670
bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness.
Invalidation is above 5675.
short term: Neutral as it gets.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way.
Quote from last week:
comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again.
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600.
medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-23-2024Yesterday S&P 500 closed down creating a Bearish Engulfing pattern. It could be reason for caution for Bulls.
Level to watch: 5630 ---5628
News to watch:
US: New Home Sales 10 AM ET
US: Jerome Powell Speaks 10 AM ET
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - All green, all good. Bulls want more climactic buying but have to settle with grinding it up. Bears are not building enough selling pressure to print consecutive bigger bear bars on higher time frames. Only look for longs until that changes. As of now, there is no reason not to expect much higher prices and new ath.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Much two sided trading today but bulls closed it green and they are making higher highs and higher lows. We are close to 20000 and will most likely hit it tomorrow. Market is not stopping so looking for shorts is a bad strategy right now for most traders. Bears built decent selling pressure today but to no avail. Market refuses to go lower as of now. Above 20000 I don’t think bulls have any resistance until 20200 but that is weak resistance at best so it’s not totally out of the question that we will just continue in an almost straight line to 21000. For bears there is nothing but pain right now. They would need a strong 1h close below 19700 for a start and many stops would probably be below 19450-19500.
current market cycle: Bull trend in bigger trading range
key levels: 19500 - 20000
bull case: Bulls only see a 15% up move from the lows and absolutely no reason to exit longs anywhere. They want to dance while the music is playing. Buying is becoming climactic and this increases the odds of a pullback. 20000 is a big round number and we could see the start of some profit taking there but for now I have my doubts.
Invalidation is below 19500.
bear case: Bears are not doing much. They tried multiple times today to keep the market from advancing too much and at least they kept it below 20000 but as long as they are not even touching the 4h 20ema, they have to content with scalps and taking quick profits. The best bears can hope for is to keep it below 20000 but the odds of that are low.
Invalidation is above 20100.
short term: Can’t be anything but bullish above 19700. Below I turn more neutral
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Between the orange lines was decent two sided trading but many many weird spikes and difficult trades to take. Buying 19800 was probably the best today.
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart
key levels: 5600 - 5650
bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No.
Invalidation is above 5650.
short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday.
comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
current market cycle: Trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes.
Invalidation is above 5650.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling.
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-16-2024S&P seems to have rallied too far too fast without any pullback. In that case, we could see some sort of mean reversion in near future.
Level to watch: 5540 --- 5538
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Also trading range price action since we closed 8 points above the open price, so many parallels to dax. Market is near the big bear trend line around 5500 and the big round number is the most obvious magnet currently. Market wants to get there desperately and a bit above for an easy liquidity grab. It’s likely that we hit 5500 tomorrow and the bear trend line. There bears have their do or die moment as well and I think it’s 50/50 if we reverse or break above.
current market cycle: Bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 5430 - 5500
bull case: Bulls now made 360 points from the lows and they now want to break strongly above 5500 and probably make new ath afterwards. Today’s price action was mostly sideways but with higher highs and higher lows, so technically a bull trend. There is nothing to deeply analyse here. We are grinding higher on low volume and are near the big round number and the daily 20ema. Tomorrow we have an answer where the next 300 points will be made.
Invalidation is below 5430.
bear case: Bears trying but not enough. They need a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema. Right now they have to pray for the bear trend line to hold and find enough sellers at 5500 to trade back down. If the bear trend line breaks, it’s moon time because all the bears will cover their shorts there.
Invalidation is above 5530.
short term: Neutral 5450 - 5530. Need a strong breakout to either side to enter bigger positions again.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday.
current market cycle: Bear trend started with the drop from 5600 down to 5119. The second leg will bring us to or below 5000, where I expect much more sideways movement again. That big round number will probably be fought over for the next weeks until more bad news come around or earnings Q3 will show clear deterioration.
key levels: 5000-5500
bull case: Bulls already recovered a bit more than 50% of the 480 point sell off and if they get above 5450, the chances of a bear trap and not a bear trend, are bigger than a continuation of the selling. Bulls want exactly that and Monday/Tuesday will be key for the next impulse. A daily close above the 20ema would also turn the momentum in favor of the bulls again. Their target is 5430 and then a daily close above the daily ema.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears need to step in and keep the market below 5430. That’s it. If they get strong selling again on Monday, I do think that below 5300 most bulls will cover and we see a retest of 5200 and lower. Bears still see this as a pullback in a bear trend and 50-60% is a normal retracement.
Invalidation is above 5430.
outlook last week:
short term : Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5376 and now we are at 5370. Market sold off to 5119 so my read was perfect. Down there I wrote “you can’t get bearish at these lows” and the pullback was expected and written of. Hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there.
medium-long term: Same as dax. Want to see a break of this bear flag before I calculate new targets and draw a better channel. We will likely see 5000 before end of October.
current swing trade: None. Will load again on shorts on Monday/Tuesday if bears appear again.
chart update: Added second bear gap, adjusted the possible bear channel and removed all broken bull trend lines.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-09-2024After a great rally yesterday, traders might be taking profit today.
Therefore, it could be a range bound day.
Level to watch: 5338 --- 5336
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150.
Invalidation is below 5090.
bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above.
Invalidation is above 5280.
short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend.
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good.
short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024.
current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500.
chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-02-2024After selling off yesterday, S&P 500 closed at bottom third which could be bearish sign.
Level to watch : 5400 --- 5398
Report to watch:
US Factory Orders 10am EST
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side.
Invalidation is above 5600.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
